Analysis

Description:

The attractiveness of the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) rests on its close similarity to a normal experimental design. On the other hand, it is of limited applicability since it is not often the case that units are assigned to the treatment group on the basis of an observable (to the analyst) pre-program measure. Besides, it only allows identification of the mean impact on a very specific subpopulation. In this technical paper, we show that the RDD straightforwardly generalizes to the instances in which the units' eligibility is established on an observable pre-program measure with eligible units allowed to freely self-select into the program. This set-up also proves to be very convenient for building a specification test on conventional non-experimental estimators of the program mean impact. The data requirements are clearly described.

Description:

In 1961, the European Commission launched a harmonized qualitative survey program to the consumers and the heads of companies (industry, services, construction, retail trade, investments) that covers more than 40 countries today. These qualitative surveys are aimed at understanding the economic situation of these companies. Results are available a few days after the end of the reference period, well before the results of the quantitative surveys.

Although qualitative, these surveys have quickly become an essential tool of the cyclical diagnosis and of the short-term economic forecast. This product shows how these surveys are used by the European Commission, in particular by the Directorate-General for economic and financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) and the Statistical Office of the European Communities (EUROSTAT), to evaluate the economic situation of the Euro zone.

The first part of this product briefly presents the harmonized European business and consumer survey program. In the second part, we look at how DG ECFIN calculates a coincident indicator of the economic activity, using a dynamic factorial analysis of the questions of the survey in industry. This type of indicator makes it possible, in addition, to study the convergence of the economic cycles of the member states. The quantitative short-term indicators for the Euro zone are often criticized for the delay with which they are published. In the third part, we look at how EUROSTAT plans to publish flash estimates of the industrial product price index (IPPI) resulting from econometric models integrating the business survey series. Lastly, we show how these surveys can be used to forecast the gross domestic product (GDP) and to define proxies for some non-available key indicators (new orders in industry, etc.).

Description:

This project seeks to shed light not only on the degree to which individuals are stuck in the low-income range, but also on those who have sufficient opportunity to move into the upper part of the income distribution. It also seeks to compare patterns of mobility through the income distribution in North America and Europe, shedding light on the impact of different models of integration. Cross-National Equivalent File data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) for the United Kingdom, the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) for Germany, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) for the United States and the Survey of Labour Income Dynamics (SLID) for Canada offer a comparative analysis of the dynamics of household income during the 1990s, paying particular attention to both low- and high-income dynamics. Canadian administrative data drawn from income tax files are also used. These panel datasets range in length from six years (for the SLID) to almost 20 years (for the PSID and the Canadian administrative data). The analysis focuses on developments during the 1990s, but also explores the sensitivity of the results to changes in the length of the period analysed.

The analysis begins by offering a broad descriptive overview of the major characteristics and events (demographic versus labour market) that determine levels and changes in adjusted household incomes. Attention is paid to movements into and out of low- and high- income ranges. A number of definitions are used, incorporating absolute and relative notions of poverty. The sensitivity of the results to the use of various equivalence scales is examined. An overview offers a broad picture of the state of household income in each country and the relative roles of family structure, the labour market and welfare state in determining income mobility. The paper employs discrete time-hazard methods to model the dynamics of entry to and exit from both low and high income.

Both observed and unobserved heterogeneity are controlled for with the intention of highlighting differences in the determinants of the transition rates between the countries. This is done in a way that assesses the importance of the relative roles of family, market and state. Attention is also paid to important institutional changes, most notably the increasing integration of product and labour markets in North America and Europe.

Description:

Practitioners often use data collected from complex surveys (such as labour force and health surveys involving stratified cluster sampling) to fit logistic regression and other models of interest. A great deal of effort over the last two decades has been spent on developing methods to analyse survey data that take account of design features. This paper looks at an alternative method known as inverse sampling.

Specialized programs, such as SUDAAN and WESVAR, are also available to implement some of the methods developed to take into account the design features. However, these methods require additional information such as survey weights, design effects or cluster identification of microdata and thus, another method is necessary.

Inverse sampling (Hinkins et al., Survey Methodology, 1977) provides an alternative approach by undoing the complex data structures so that standard methods can be applied. Repeated subsamples with simple random structure are drawn and each subsample is analysed by standard methods and is combined to increase the efficiency. Although computer-intensive, this method has the potential to preserve confidentiality of microdata files. A drawback of the method is that it can lead to biased estimates of regression parameters when the subsample sizes are small (as in the case of stratified cluster sampling).

In this paper, we propose using the estimating equation approach that combines the subsamples before estimation and thus leads to nearly unbiased estimates of regression parameters regardless of subsample sizes. This method is computationally less intensive than the original method. We apply the method to cluster-correlated data generated from a nested error linear regression model to illustrate its advantages. A real dataset from a Statistics Canada survey will also be analysed using the estimating equation method.

Description:

Survey sampling is a statistical domain that has been slow to take advantage of flexible regression methods. In this technical paper, two approaches are discussed that could be used to make these regression methods accessible: adapt the techniques to the complex survey design that has been used or sample the survey data so that the standard techniques are applicable.

In following the former route, we introduce techniques that account for the complex survey structure of the data for scatterplot smoothing and additive models. The use of penalized least squares in the sampling context is studied as a tool for the analysis of a general trend in a finite population. We focus on smooth regression with a normal error model. Ties in covariates abound for large scale surveys resulting in the application of scatterplot smoothers to means. The estimation of smooths (for example, smoothing splines) depends on the sampling design only via the sampling weights, meaning that standard software can be used for estimation. Inference for these curves is more challenging, as a result of correlations induced by the sampling design. We propose and illustrate tests that account for the sampling design. Illustrative examples are given using the Ontario health survey, including scatterplot smoothing, additive models and model diagnostics. In an attempt to resolve the problem by appropriate sampling of the survey data file, we discuss some of the hurdles that are faced when using this approach.

Description:

Analyses of data from social and economic surveys sometimes use generalized variance function models to approximate the design variance of point estimators of population means and proportions. Analysts may use the resulting standard error estimates to compute associated confidence intervals or test statistics for the means and proportions of interest. In comparison with design-based variance estimators computed directly from survey microdata, generalized variance function models have several potential advantages, as will be discussed in this paper, including operational simplicity; increased stability of standard errors; and, for cases involving public-use datasets, reduction of disclosure limitation problems arising from the public release of stratum and cluster indicators.

These potential advantages, however, may be offset in part by several inferential issues. First, the properties of inferential statistics based on generalized variance functions (e.g., confidence interval coverage rates and widths) depend heavily on the relative empirical magnitudes of the components of variability associated, respectively, with:

(a) the random selection of a subset of items used in estimation of the generalized variance function model(b) the selection of sample units under a complex sample design (c) the lack of fit of the generalized variance function model (d) the generation of a finite population under a superpopulation model.

Second, under conditions, one may link each of components (a) through (d) with different empirical measures of the predictive adequacy of a generalized variance function model. Consequently, these measures of predictive adequacy can offer us some insight into the extent to which a given generalized variance function model may be appropriate for inferential use in specific applications.

Some of the proposed diagnostics are applied to data from the US Survey of Doctoral Recipients and the US Current Employment Survey. For the Survey of Doctoral Recipients, components (a), (c) and (d) are of principal concern. For the Current Employment Survey, components (b), (c) and (d) receive principal attention, and the availability of population microdata allow the development of especially detailed models for components (b) and (c).

Description:

Closing remarks

Description:

Opening remarks of the Symposium 2002: Modelling Survey Data for Social and Economic Research, presented by David Binder.

Description:

Keynote Address.

Description:

This study examines trends in the internal migration of the Canadian-born and long-term immigrants into and out of Canada's three largest metropolitan areas.

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: This infographic provides estimates on health care workers' stress, alcohol consumption and positive health behaviours during the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimates are provided across three primary health care worker groups: nurses, physicians, and Personal Support Workers/Care Aides (PSWs/CAs).

Description: Many aspects of Canadian society affect and are affected by climate change. This presentation synthesizes recent research examining the impact of climate change on Canadian society (economy, labour, and health) as well as adaptation and mitigation measures to combat climate change.

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: StatCan released new analysis into the online culture our kids are growing up in, and it’s far from the best of all possible worlds: misinformation, bullying, violence… and worse.

Analyst Rachel Tsitomeneas joins us to dive into the findings.

Description: This infographic explores ecosystem services, which provide many benefits to society. The infographic provides a visual representation of the three main types of ecosystem services – provisioning services, regulating and maintenance services and cultural services.

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: The impact of immigration on the destination country is contingent not only on the number of immigrants admitted but also on how many of them choose to stay and actively engage in the labour market. This article analyzes the active presence of adult immigrants since the 1990s. Active presence refers to the extent to which immigrants who were admitted to Canada during a specific period actively engage in Canadian society within a specific timeframe.

Description: Headline inflation in Canada reached a 40-year high in 2022. Rising prices reduced the purchasing power of people whose incomes were not keeping pace with inflation and the current high inflation in Canada, as well as in many other countries, may be caused by both demand and supply factors. This article examines whether the current high inflation in Canada is demand–pull or supply–push.

Description: The pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on the Canadian economy. This impact was uneven across different workers and businesses. However, there is little information available on how businesses were affected by and survived through the pandemic according to the characteristics of their owners, especially those owned by certain groups such as women and immigrants. This article uses a linkage of the monthly business openings and closures with the Canadian Employer-Employee Dynamics Database and the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy to study the survival rate and employment growth of businesses by gender, and immigrant status of owners.

Description: Digital Insights brings together a variety of data from across Statistics Canada and other sources to provide insights and analysis on the digital economy and society in Canada. The topics covered include: e-commerce, digital trade, cyber security and cybercrime, and the impacts of Internet and other technology use on the Canadian economy and society.

Description: This technical paper describes the collection of food price data and the methodologies that are used to provide Canadians with accurate and timely food inflation data in both the CPI and the monthly average retail prices table.

Description: This article explores trends in patent applications made by Canadian-resident businesses for advanced technologies from 2001 to 2019, drawing on Eurostat's aggregation of high-tech patents. Approximately one-third of applications fall under high-tech categories, the bulk of which were associated with Communication, Computer, and Automated business equipment technologies. While these fields saw growth until 2012, a subsequent decline occurred, notably in Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing. Biotechnology, Semiconductors, and Lasers showed limited dynamism, while aviation technology applications surged by nearly twentyfold over the period.

Description: This study compares the Government of Canada’s direct and indirect measures to support R&D, as captured by business innovation and growth support (BIGS) programs and the Scientific Research and Experimental Development (SR&ED) tax incentive program. BIGS and SR&ED are two central instruments that the Canadian government uses to stimulate R&D expenditures in the business sector.

Description: Over the last several years, recreational screen time has been increasing. During the COVID-19 pandemic, recreational screen time rose among Canadian youth and adults, and those who increased screen time had poorer self-reported mental health. Using data from the 2017, 2018, and 2021 Canadian Community Health Survey, the objective of this study was to compare recreational screen time behaviours before (2018) and during (2021) the pandemic, looking at patterns by sociodemographic subgroups of the Canadian population.

Description: The availability of measures to operationalize allostatic load—the cumulative toll on the body of responding to stressor demands—in population health surveys may differ across years or surveys, hampering analyses on the entire sampled population. In this study, the impacts of variable selection and calculation method were evaluated to generate an allostatic load index applicable across all cycles of the Canadian Health Measures Survey (CHMS). CHMS data were used to compare individual and population-level changes in scores for allostatic load indexes in which other commonly used measures were substituted for waist-to-hip ratio. Associations between the various constructs and indicators of socioeconomic position were then assessed to evaluate whether relationships were maintained across indexes.

Description: This series of regional maps shows the number of school-aged children eligible to primary and secondary instruction in English in Quebec by census subdivision, and the proportion of these children who attend or have attended an English-language school in Canada. All the information provided comes from the 2021 Census of Population and the 2022 Open Database of Educational Facilities.

Description: Once every five years, the Census of Population provides a detailed and comprehensive statistical portrait of Canada that is vital to our country. It is the primary source of sociodemographic data for specific population groups such as lone-parent families, Indigenous peoples, immigrants, seniors and language groups.

In order to help users of census products to better understand the various Census of Population concepts, Statistics Canada has developed, in the context of the activities of the 2021 Census and previous censuses, a collection of short videos. These videos are a reference source for users who are new to census concepts or those who have some experience with these concepts, but may need a refresher or would like to expand their knowledge.

Description: The Departmental Sustainable Development Strategy (DSDS) outlines departmental actions, with measurable performance indicators, that support the implementation strategies of the 2022-2026 Federal Sustainable Development Strategy. The DSDS further outlines Statistics Canada’s sustainable development vision to produce data to help track whether Canada is moving toward a more sustainable future and highlights projects with links to supporting sustainable development goals.

Description: This series provides detailed documentation on the issues, concepts, methodology, data quality and other relevant research related to household expenditures from the Survey of Household Spending, the Homeowner Repair and Renovation Survey and the Food Expenditure Survey.

Description: This report summarizes the annual achievements of the Methodology Research and Development Program (MRDP) sponsored by the Modern Statistical Methods and Data Science Branch at Statistics Canada. This program covers research and development activities in statistical methods with potentially broad application in the agency’s statistical programs; these activities would otherwise be less likely to be carried out during the provision of regular methodology services to those programs. The MRDP also includes activities that provide support in the application of past successful developments in order to promote the use of the results of research and development work. Selected prospective research activities are also presented.

Description: The series covers environment accounts and indicators, environmental surveys, spatial environmental information and other research related to environmental statistics. The technical paper series is intended to stimulate discussion on a range of environmental topics.

Description: This bulletin presents the most up-to-date available information extracted from all of the Aviation Statistics Centre's surveys. Regular features include releases on principal statistics for Canada's major air carriers, airport data, fare basis statistics and traffic data for Canada's most important markets.

Description: This series of analytical articles provides insights on the socio-economic environment in rural communities in Canada. New articles will be released periodically.

Description: Statistics Canada is committed to sharing our knowledge and expertise to help all Canadians develop their data literacy skills by developing a series of data literacy training resources. Data literacy is a key skill needed in the 21st century. It is generally described as the ability to derive meaning from data. Data literacy focuses on the competencies or skills involved in working with data, including the ability to read, analyze, interpret, visualize data, as well as to drive good decision-making.

Description: The fact sheets in this series provide an "at-a-glance" overview of particular aspects of education in Canada and summarize key data trends in selected tables published as part of the Pan-Canadian Education Indicators Program (PCEIP).

The PCEIP mission is to publish a set of statistical measures on education systems in Canada for policy makers, practitioners and the general public to monitor the performance of education systems across jurisdictions and over time. PCEIP is a joint venture of Statistics Canada and the Council of Ministers of Education, Canada (CMEC).

Description: Statistics Canada's Quality of Employment in Canada publication is intended to provide Canadians and Canadian organizations with a better understanding of quality of employment using an internationally-supported statistical framework. Quality of employment is approached as a multidimensional concept, characterized by different elements, which relate to human needs in various ways. To cover all relevant aspects, the framework identified seven dimensions and twelve sub-dimensions of quality of employment.