Analysis

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: The journal publishes articles dealing with various aspects of statistical development relevant to a statistical agency, such as design issues in the context of practical constraints, use of different data sources and collection techniques, total survey error, survey evaluation, research in survey methodology, time series analysis, seasonal adjustment, demographic studies, data integration, estimation and data analysis methods, and general survey systems development. The emphasis is placed on the development and evaluation of specific methodologies as applied to data collection or the data themselves.

Description: Inspired by the two excellent discussions of our paper, we offer some new insights and developments into the problem of estimating participation probabilities for non-probability samples. First, we propose an improvement of the method of Chen, Li and Wu (2020), based on best linear unbiased estimation theory, that more efficiently leverages the available probability and non-probability sample data. We also develop a sample likelihood approach, similar in spirit to the method of Elliott (2009), that properly accounts for the overlap between both samples when it can be identified in at least one of the samples. We use best linear unbiased prediction theory to handle the scenario where the overlap is unknown. Interestingly, our two proposed approaches coincide in the case of unknown overlap. Then, we show that many existing methods can be obtained as a special case of a general unbiased estimating function. Finally, we conclude with some comments on nonparametric estimation of participation probabilities.

Description: We provide comparisons among three parametric methods for the estimation of participation probabilities and some brief comments on homogeneous groups and post-stratification.

Description: Beaumont, Bosa, Brennan, Charlebois and Chu (2024) propose innovative model selection approaches for estimation of participation probabilities for non-probability sample units. We focus our discussion on the choice of a likelihood and parameterization of the model, which are key for the effectiveness of the techniques developed in the paper. We consider alternative likelihood and pseudo-likelihood based methods for estimation of participation probabilities and present simulations implementing and comparing the AIC based variable selection. We demonstrate that, under important practical scenarios, the approach based on a likelihood formulated over the observed pooled non-probability and probability samples performed better than the pseudo-likelihood based alternatives. The contrast in sensitivity of the AIC criteria is especially large for small probability sample sizes and low overlap in covariates domains.

Description: Non-probability samples are being increasingly explored in National Statistical Offices as an alternative to probability samples. However, it is well known that the use of a non-probability sample alone may produce estimates with significant bias due to the unknown nature of the underlying selection mechanism. Bias reduction can be achieved by integrating data from the non-probability sample with data from a probability sample provided that both samples contain auxiliary variables in common. We focus on inverse probability weighting methods, which involve modelling the probability of participation in the non-probability sample. First, we consider the logistic model along with pseudo maximum likelihood estimation. We propose a variable selection procedure based on a modified Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) that properly accounts for the data structure and the probability sampling design. We also propose a simple rank-based method of forming homogeneous post-strata. Then, we extend the Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm to this data integration scenario, while again properly accounting for the probability sampling design. A bootstrap variance estimator is proposed that reflects two sources of variability: the probability sampling design and the participation model. Our methods are illustrated using Statistics Canada’s crowdsourcing and survey data.

Description: In this rejoinder, I address the comments from the discussants, Dr. Takumi Saegusa, Dr. Jae-Kwang Kim and Ms. Yonghyun Kwon. Dr. Saegusa’s comments about the differences between the conditional exchangeability (CE) assumption for causal inferences versus the CE assumption for finite population inferences using nonprobability samples, and the distinction between design-based versus model-based approaches for finite population inference using nonprobability samples, are elaborated and clarified in the context of my paper. Subsequently, I respond to Dr. Kim and Ms. Kwon’s comprehensive framework for categorizing existing approaches for estimating propensity scores (PS) into conditional and unconditional approaches. I expand their simulation studies to vary the sampling weights, allow for misspecified PS models, and include an additional estimator, i.e., scaled adjusted logistic propensity estimator (Wang, Valliant and Li (2021), denoted by sWBS). In my simulations, it is observed that the sWBS estimator consistently outperforms or is comparable to the other estimators under the misspecified PS model. The sWBS, as well as WBS or ABS described in my paper, do not assume that the overlapped units in both the nonprobability and probability reference samples are negligible, nor do they require the identification of overlap units as needed by the estimators proposed by Dr. Kim and Ms. Kwon.

Description: In some of non-probability sample literature, the conditional exchangeability assumption is considered to be necessary for valid statistical inference. This assumption is rooted in causal inference though its potential outcome framework differs greatly from that of non-probability samples. We describe similarities and differences of two frameworks and discuss issues to consider when adopting the conditional exchangeability assumption in non-probability sample setups. We also discuss the role of finite population inference in different approaches of propensity scores and outcome regression modeling to non-probability samples.

Description: Pseudo weight construction for data integration can be understood in the two-phase sampling framework. Using the two-phase sampling framework, we discuss two approaches to the estimation of propensity scores and develop a new way to construct the propensity score function for data integration using the conditional maximum likelihood method. Results from a limited simulation study are also presented.

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: This infographic details the prevalence of vitamin D inadequacy among the Canadian population aged 3 to 79 by focusing on risk factors as well as behaviours that can reduce the likelihood of low vitamin D.

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: A series of articles on various subjects which explore the impact of COVID-19 on the socio-economic landscape. New articles will be released periodically.

Description: This article provides insights into the rates of COVID-19 mortality among First Nations peoples and Métis living in private dwellings and the social determinants of COVID-19 mortality among these populations using data from the 2016 Canadian Census Health and Environment Cohorts linked to the Canadian Vital Statistics – Death Database from 2016 to 2021.

Description: Our comments respond to discussion from Sen, Brick, and Elliott. We weigh the potential upside and downside of Sen’s suggestion of using machine learning to identify bogus respondents through interactions and improbable combinations of variables. We join Brick in reflecting on bogus respondents’ impact on the state of commercial nonprobability surveys. Finally, we consider Elliott’s discussion of solutions to the challenge raised in our study.

Description: This discussion summarizes the interesting new findings around measurement errors in opt-in surveys by Kennedy, Mercer and Lau (KML). While KML enlighten readers about “bogus responding” and possible patterns in them, this discussion suggests combining these new-found results with other avenues of research in nonprobability sampling, such as improvement of representativeness.

Description: Kennedy, Mercer, and Lau explore misreporting by respondents in non-probability samples and discover a new feature, namely that of deliberate misreporting of demographic characteristics. This finding suggests that the “arms race” between researchers and those determined to disrupt the practice of social science is not over and researchers need to account for such respondents if using high-quality probability surveys to help reduce error in non-probability samples.

Description: Nonprobability samples are quick and low-cost and have become popular for some types of survey research. Kennedy, Mercer and Lau examine data quality issues associated with opt-in nonprobability samples frequently used in the United States. They show that the estimates from these samples have serious problems that go beyond representativeness. A total survey error perspective is important for evaluating all types of surveys.

Description: Statistical approaches developed for nonprobability samples generally focus on nonrandom selection as the primary reason survey respondents might differ systematically from the target population. Well-established theory states that in these instances, by conditioning on the necessary auxiliary variables, selection can be rendered ignorable and survey estimates will be free of bias. But this logic rests on the assumption that measurement error is nonexistent or small. In this study we test this assumption in two ways. First, we use a large benchmarking study to identify subgroups for which errors in commercial, online nonprobability samples are especially large in ways that are unlikely due to selection effects. Then we present a follow-up study examining one cause of the large errors: bogus responding (i.e., survey answers that are fraudulent, mischievous or otherwise insincere). We find that bogus responding, particularly among respondents identifying as young or Hispanic, is a significant and widespread problem in commercial, online nonprobability samples, at least in the United States. This research highlights the need for statisticians working with commercial nonprobability samples to address bogus responding and issues of representativeness – not just the latter.

Description: This paper is an introduction to the special issue on the use of nonprobability samples featuring three papers that were presented at the 29^th Morris Hansen Lecture by Courtney Kennedy, Yan Li and Jean-François Beaumont.

Description: This article explores results from the survey related to the use of AI in producing goods and delivering services. Furthermore, this article explains the specific types of AI being used, such as machine learning, virtual agents and voice recognition, as well as the impact of AI adoption on tasks performed by employees and on employment levels. It involves an examination of the data produced by the Canadian Survey on Business Conditions.

Description: Extreme heat has significant impacts on mortality. In Canada, past research has analyzed the degree to which non-accidental mortality increases during single extreme heat events; however, few studies have considered multiple causes of death and the impacts of extreme heat events on mortality over longer time periods. This study analyzes the impacts of extreme heat events on nonaccidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths from 2000 to 2020 in 12 of the largest cities in Canada.

Description: Optimal oral health is an essential element of healthy aging. Oral health problems such as tooth loss, periodontal disease, and dry mouth accumulate throughout adult life and worsen with increasing age. Using data from the 2019/2020 Canadian Health Survey on Seniors, this study explores the link between dental insurance, income, and oral health care access among seniors (aged 65 and over) in Canada. It contributes to the understanding of oral health care among seniors before the implementation of the Canadian Dental Care Plan.

Description: This paper describes the composition of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket and the changes introduced with the 2024 basket update, based on 2023 expenditure weights.

Description:

The latest issue consists of the article "Strong growth propels the electrical and electronic products industry into the 21st century" by Russell Kowaluk. Despite the recent turmoil in global stock markets, manufacturing in Canada is finally reaping the benefits of prosperity on many accounts, and such positive indicators are prevalent in one of Canada's more innovative, and dynamic industries, the electrical and electronic products industry (Major Group 33). Following a brief pause in 1996, the value of shipments surpassed the $30 billion mark in 1997. Employment levels recorded their strongest growth in ten years, while international trade estimates again achieved record highs.

This review paper highlights the results of the 1997 Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM), and details various prevailing economic indicators, illustrating the growth in the electrical and electronic products industry. These factors will be highlighted and analyzed, and the electrical and electronic products sector will be compared to other industries and measured relative to the manufacturing sector as a whole. Key current indicators to be investigated include the value of shipments and costs of production, international trade and labor statistics.

Description:

This study investigates the determinants of failure for new Canadian firms. It explores the role that certain factors play in conditioning the likelihood of survival - factors related to industry structure, firm demographics and macroeconomic cycles. It asks whether the determinants of failure are different for new start-ups than for firms that have reached adolescence, and if the magnitude of these differences is economically significant. It examines whether, after controlling for certain influences, failure rates differ across industries and provinces.

Two themes figure prominently in this analysis. The first is the impact that certain industry characteristics - such as average firm size and concentration - have on the entry/exit process, either through their influence on failure costs or on the intensity of competition. The second centres on how the dimensions of failure evolve over time as new firms gain market experience.

Description:

The most recent issue contains "Non-Electrical machinery industries post strong growth in 1997, with market uncertainty on the horizon" by Russell Kowaluk. Based on statistical information provided by the Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM), this article explores the machinery industries (except electrical machinery), discussing various key statistics including shipment value, input costs and labour information. Other significant economic indicators to be assessed include monthly manufacturing estimates, international trade statistics, and rates of capacity utilization and investment.

Canada's machinery industries remained one of the fastest growing manufacturing sectors in 1997. However, during the later half of 1998 and into 1999, recent developments confirm that the tide of prosperity the industry has benefited from in recent years has tapered off. The ensuing article discusses the industry, detailing the results of the 1997 ASM, and highlighting the economic climate now challenging the sector.

Description:

The economic performance of this industry is examined through its value of shipments, trade performance, capital expenditures and, employment trends. All four variables point to growth and another year of recovery from the recession of the early 1990s. The Free Trade Agreements and construction activities are the driving forces behind this decade's trends for the non-metallic mineral products industries.

Description:

There has long been demand by both industry associations and government departments to combine manufacturing shipments data with trade data. Users are combining the two sources of data, for reasons such as determining an estimate of the domestic market for a given commodity, and using the resulting information for decision-making. This paper attempts to determine the feasibility of integrating manufacturing shipments data and trade data at the commodity level.

Description:

Data on Aboriginal status contained in this report are based on self-reported (Census) and/or observational (crime) data. They provide information on the nature and extent of Aboriginal involvement in urban, rural and reserve crime as well as the socio-demographic profile of the population of Saskatchewan.

Based on the 1996 Census data, the Aboriginal population in Saskatchewan tend to be younger, have lower educational levels, higher unemployment rates, and substantially lower incomes than the non-Aboriginal population. Crime rates on reserves were two times higher than rates in rural or urban areas of the province. For violent offences, the rate was almost five times higher on-reserve than in urban or rural areas.

In all three areas (reserves, urban and rural areas), a larger proportion of adults than youth was accused of a violent offence or an "other" Criminal Code offence. In contrast, youth were more often accused of a property offence than any other offence type. In urban areas, there is an over-representation of Aboriginal persons involved in the criminal justice system. In 1997, more than one-half (52%) of those accused in Prince Albert, Regina and Saskatoon were Aboriginal compared to their 9% proportion in the population of these cities.

A substantial difference in the male-female ratio of Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal accused was found. Although the majority of all those accused were male, there was a greater proportion of Aboriginal female than non-Aboriginal female accused. Aboriginal accused tended to be younger than non-Aboriginal accused. Almost one-third (31%) of Aboriginal accused were aged 12 to 17 years of age compared to 23% of non-Aboriginal accused.

In the two cities where victim data were available (Regina and Prince Albert), there was a greater proportion of Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal victims of violent crime compared to their proportion in the overall population of these cities. In 1997, 42% of victims in Prince Albert and Regina were Aboriginal, compared to their 10% proportion in the population of these cities.

Description:

This research paper summarizes the approach, methodology and results of a study of the labour market behaviour of persons in various categories of attachment to the labour market. The analysis focuses on the transition probabilities for various categories of labour market attachment. Specifically, the study will include a discussion of the behavioural differences of the following groups:

a) a comparison of transitions from U (unemployed), M (marginally attached - wants work) and N (not attached - does not want work); b) a further breakdown of the transitions from U by active searchers, passive searchers, those on temporary layoff and short-term future starts; c) a further breakdown of transitions for M by reason for not searching; and d) a further breakdown of transitions from N by long-term future starts and other.

The study will be based on 1997-1999 Labour Force Survey data.

Description:

The latest issue consists of the article "Wood manufacturers have been stimulated by the strength of the domestic market" by Gilles Simard. The effects of the decrease in interest rates in Canada in 1996 were felt fully in 1997. The increased activity in housing development in Canada, and to a lesser extent, in the United States, has stimulated the wood industry. However, the crisis in Asia during the summer of 1997 was a heavy blow to British Columbia, the province that provides half of Canada's lumber. This article, based on the results of the 1997 Annual Survey of Manufactures (ASM), briefly describes changes in the industry in 1997 and 1998 and looks at recent events in.

Description:

The food-processing industry benefits from a wide a range of new advanced technologies. Technological advances include computer-based information and control systems, as well as sophisticated processing and packaging methods that enhance product quality, improve food safety and reduce costs. Continuous quality improvement and benchmarking are examples of related business practices.

This study examines the use of advanced technologies in the food-processing industry. It focuses not just on the incidence and intensity of use of these new technologies but also on the way technology relates to overall firm strategy. It also examines how technology use is affected by selected industry structural characteristics and how the adoption of technologies affects the performance of firms. It considers as well how the environment influences technological change. The nature and structure of the industry are shown to condition the competitive environment, the business strategies that are pursued, product characteristics and the role of technology.

Firms make strategic choices in light of technological opportunities and the risks and opportunities provided by their competitive environments. They implement strategies through appropriate business practices and activities, including the development of core competencies in the areas of marketing, production and human resources, as well as technology. Firms that differ in size and nationality choose to pursue different technological strategies. This study focuses on how these differences are reflected in the different use of technology for large and small establishments, for foreign and domestic plants and for plants in different industries.

Description:

Low income cut-offs (LICOs) are intended to convey the income level at which a family may be in straitened circumstances because it has to spend a greater portion of its income on the basics (food, clothing and shelter) than does the average family of similar size. The LICOs vary by family size and by size of community.

This publication provides a brief explanation of how the LICOs are derived and updated annually. In addition, it provides on a historical basis, LICOs for different family sizes by size of area of residence. LICOs are calculated based on the spending patterns of families on basic 'necessities' - food, shelter and clothing - as collected from the Survey of Household Spending (formerly referred to as the Family Expenditure Survey (FAMEX)).