Analysis

Description:

A developmental trajectory describes the course of a behaviour over age or time. This technical paper provides an overview of a semi-parametric, group-based method for analysing developmental trajectories. This methodology provides an alternative to assuming a homogenous population of trajectories as is done in standard growth modelling.

Four capabilities are described: (1) the capability to identify, rather than assume, distinctive groups of trajectories; (2) the capability to estimate the proportion of the population following each such trajectory group; (3) the capability to relate group membership probability to individual characteristics and circumstances; and (4) the capability to use the group membership probabilities for various other purposes, such as creating profiles of group members.

In addition, two important extensions of the method are described: the capability to add time-varying covariates to trajectory models and the capability to estimate joint trajectory models of distinct but related behaviours. The former provides the statistical capacity for testing if a contemporary factor, such as an experimental intervention or a non-experimental event like pregnancy, deflects a pre-existing trajectory. The latter provides the capability to study the unfolding of distinct but related behaviours such as problematic childhood behaviour and adolescent drug abuse.

Description:

The attractiveness of the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) rests on its close similarity to a normal experimental design. On the other hand, it is of limited applicability since it is not often the case that units are assigned to the treatment group on the basis of an observable (to the analyst) pre-program measure. Besides, it only allows identification of the mean impact on a very specific subpopulation. In this technical paper, we show that the RDD straightforwardly generalizes to the instances in which the units' eligibility is established on an observable pre-program measure with eligible units allowed to freely self-select into the program. This set-up also proves to be very convenient for building a specification test on conventional non-experimental estimators of the program mean impact. The data requirements are clearly described.

Description:

In 1961, the European Commission launched a harmonized qualitative survey program to the consumers and the heads of companies (industry, services, construction, retail trade, investments) that covers more than 40 countries today. These qualitative surveys are aimed at understanding the economic situation of these companies. Results are available a few days after the end of the reference period, well before the results of the quantitative surveys.

Although qualitative, these surveys have quickly become an essential tool of the cyclical diagnosis and of the short-term economic forecast. This product shows how these surveys are used by the European Commission, in particular by the Directorate-General for economic and financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) and the Statistical Office of the European Communities (EUROSTAT), to evaluate the economic situation of the Euro zone.

The first part of this product briefly presents the harmonized European business and consumer survey program. In the second part, we look at how DG ECFIN calculates a coincident indicator of the economic activity, using a dynamic factorial analysis of the questions of the survey in industry. This type of indicator makes it possible, in addition, to study the convergence of the economic cycles of the member states. The quantitative short-term indicators for the Euro zone are often criticized for the delay with which they are published. In the third part, we look at how EUROSTAT plans to publish flash estimates of the industrial product price index (IPPI) resulting from econometric models integrating the business survey series. Lastly, we show how these surveys can be used to forecast the gross domestic product (GDP) and to define proxies for some non-available key indicators (new orders in industry, etc.).

Description:

This project seeks to shed light not only on the degree to which individuals are stuck in the low-income range, but also on those who have sufficient opportunity to move into the upper part of the income distribution. It also seeks to compare patterns of mobility through the income distribution in North America and Europe, shedding light on the impact of different models of integration. Cross-National Equivalent File data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) for the United Kingdom, the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) for Germany, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) for the United States and the Survey of Labour Income Dynamics (SLID) for Canada offer a comparative analysis of the dynamics of household income during the 1990s, paying particular attention to both low- and high-income dynamics. Canadian administrative data drawn from income tax files are also used. These panel datasets range in length from six years (for the SLID) to almost 20 years (for the PSID and the Canadian administrative data). The analysis focuses on developments during the 1990s, but also explores the sensitivity of the results to changes in the length of the period analysed.

The analysis begins by offering a broad descriptive overview of the major characteristics and events (demographic versus labour market) that determine levels and changes in adjusted household incomes. Attention is paid to movements into and out of low- and high- income ranges. A number of definitions are used, incorporating absolute and relative notions of poverty. The sensitivity of the results to the use of various equivalence scales is examined. An overview offers a broad picture of the state of household income in each country and the relative roles of family structure, the labour market and welfare state in determining income mobility. The paper employs discrete time-hazard methods to model the dynamics of entry to and exit from both low and high income.

Both observed and unobserved heterogeneity are controlled for with the intention of highlighting differences in the determinants of the transition rates between the countries. This is done in a way that assesses the importance of the relative roles of family, market and state. Attention is also paid to important institutional changes, most notably the increasing integration of product and labour markets in North America and Europe.

Description:

Practitioners often use data collected from complex surveys (such as labour force and health surveys involving stratified cluster sampling) to fit logistic regression and other models of interest. A great deal of effort over the last two decades has been spent on developing methods to analyse survey data that take account of design features. This paper looks at an alternative method known as inverse sampling.

Specialized programs, such as SUDAAN and WESVAR, are also available to implement some of the methods developed to take into account the design features. However, these methods require additional information such as survey weights, design effects or cluster identification of microdata and thus, another method is necessary.

Inverse sampling (Hinkins et al., Survey Methodology, 1977) provides an alternative approach by undoing the complex data structures so that standard methods can be applied. Repeated subsamples with simple random structure are drawn and each subsample is analysed by standard methods and is combined to increase the efficiency. Although computer-intensive, this method has the potential to preserve confidentiality of microdata files. A drawback of the method is that it can lead to biased estimates of regression parameters when the subsample sizes are small (as in the case of stratified cluster sampling).

In this paper, we propose using the estimating equation approach that combines the subsamples before estimation and thus leads to nearly unbiased estimates of regression parameters regardless of subsample sizes. This method is computationally less intensive than the original method. We apply the method to cluster-correlated data generated from a nested error linear regression model to illustrate its advantages. A real dataset from a Statistics Canada survey will also be analysed using the estimating equation method.

Description:

Survey sampling is a statistical domain that has been slow to take advantage of flexible regression methods. In this technical paper, two approaches are discussed that could be used to make these regression methods accessible: adapt the techniques to the complex survey design that has been used or sample the survey data so that the standard techniques are applicable.

In following the former route, we introduce techniques that account for the complex survey structure of the data for scatterplot smoothing and additive models. The use of penalized least squares in the sampling context is studied as a tool for the analysis of a general trend in a finite population. We focus on smooth regression with a normal error model. Ties in covariates abound for large scale surveys resulting in the application of scatterplot smoothers to means. The estimation of smooths (for example, smoothing splines) depends on the sampling design only via the sampling weights, meaning that standard software can be used for estimation. Inference for these curves is more challenging, as a result of correlations induced by the sampling design. We propose and illustrate tests that account for the sampling design. Illustrative examples are given using the Ontario health survey, including scatterplot smoothing, additive models and model diagnostics. In an attempt to resolve the problem by appropriate sampling of the survey data file, we discuss some of the hurdles that are faced when using this approach.

Description:

Analyses of data from social and economic surveys sometimes use generalized variance function models to approximate the design variance of point estimators of population means and proportions. Analysts may use the resulting standard error estimates to compute associated confidence intervals or test statistics for the means and proportions of interest. In comparison with design-based variance estimators computed directly from survey microdata, generalized variance function models have several potential advantages, as will be discussed in this paper, including operational simplicity; increased stability of standard errors; and, for cases involving public-use datasets, reduction of disclosure limitation problems arising from the public release of stratum and cluster indicators.

These potential advantages, however, may be offset in part by several inferential issues. First, the properties of inferential statistics based on generalized variance functions (e.g., confidence interval coverage rates and widths) depend heavily on the relative empirical magnitudes of the components of variability associated, respectively, with:

(a) the random selection of a subset of items used in estimation of the generalized variance function model(b) the selection of sample units under a complex sample design (c) the lack of fit of the generalized variance function model (d) the generation of a finite population under a superpopulation model.

Second, under conditions, one may link each of components (a) through (d) with different empirical measures of the predictive adequacy of a generalized variance function model. Consequently, these measures of predictive adequacy can offer us some insight into the extent to which a given generalized variance function model may be appropriate for inferential use in specific applications.

Some of the proposed diagnostics are applied to data from the US Survey of Doctoral Recipients and the US Current Employment Survey. For the Survey of Doctoral Recipients, components (a), (c) and (d) are of principal concern. For the Current Employment Survey, components (b), (c) and (d) receive principal attention, and the availability of population microdata allow the development of especially detailed models for components (b) and (c).

Description:

Closing remarks

Description:

Opening remarks of the Symposium 2002: Modelling Survey Data for Social and Economic Research, presented by David Binder.

Description:

Keynote Address.

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: This infographic uses data from the 2018 and 2022 Canadian Internet Use Survey to examine patterns and trends in online banking by population groups.

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: From January 2nd to February 5th, 2024, Statistics Canada conducted the Canadian Survey on Business Conditions. The purpose of this survey is to collect information on businesses in Canada related to emerging issues. This iteration of the survey focuses on business expectations and business conditions in Canada. In addition, the questionnaire for the first quarter of 2024 includes a component specifically for non-profit organizations (NPOs). The intent of this set of questions is to address a present data gap and to provide a better understanding of the non-profit sector. This infographic presents key results from this.

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: This infographic presents some highlights from the 2022 Canadian Income Survey data.

Description: Canada’s Poverty Reduction Strategy introduced the Official Poverty Line for Canada and a dashboard of 12 indicators to track progress on poverty reduction for Canadians and their households. This infographic presents trend information for Canada's official poverty rate and the associated 12 indicators.

Description: This article is the first main release by Statistics Canada based on findings from the 2022 Canadian Survey on Disability (CSD). It is divided into three sections—demographics, employment, and income—and provides a general snapshot on persons with disabilities to inform on government priorities and community interest in the areas of disability prevalence, labour market participation, and income inequality. Where possible, the report will be compared with results from the 2017 CSD to provide insight into changes over the past five years.

Description: Using data from the 2021 Census, this study investigates the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on racialized workers, focusing on the change in median employment income from 2019 to 2020, and the extent to which payments from the Canada Emergency Response Benefit offset income losses in 2020 among workers affected by the pandemic. Differences between racialized and non-racialized workers are investigated, along with differences among groups of racialized workers, as well as the intersectionality of race and gender.

Description: With an increase in the number of international students and a greater need for affordable housing, questions have arisen about international students housing experiences. This article examines international students’ prevalence of living in unsuitable housing across municipalities enumerated in the 2021 Census of Population long-form questionnaire. The report also presents the rates of unsuitable housing for international students from different source countries and provides comparisons with Canadian-born students.

Description: Selecting immigrants with high levels of education increases their chances of economic success. Immigrants with a bachelor’s degree or higher are more adaptable to changes in the labour market and have steeper growth in employment earnings than those with a trades or high school education. However, many immigrants with a bachelor’s degree or higher have occupations that underutilize their skills, which can reduce their employment income, productivity and well-being. This article updates previously documented trends in education–occupation mismatch with census data from 2001 to 2021.

Description: It is well documented that earnings vary considerably by population group (White, Black, Latin American, etc.). One of the possible reasons may be the fact that educational attainment also varies considerably by population group. Currently, there is a lack of information on the educational pathways of individuals from various population groups who began a postsecondary education program. This article fills this gap by documenting various aspects of the postsecondary experience of different population groups with regard to bachelor’s degree programs.

Description: The impact of immigration on the destination country is contingent not only on the number of immigrants admitted but also on how many of them choose to stay and actively engage in the labour market. This article analyzes the active presence of adult immigrants since the 1990s. Active presence refers to the extent to which immigrants who were admitted to Canada during a specific period actively engage in Canadian society within a specific timeframe.

Description: Headline inflation in Canada reached a 40-year high in 2022. Rising prices reduced the purchasing power of people whose incomes were not keeping pace with inflation and the current high inflation in Canada, as well as in many other countries, may be caused by both demand and supply factors. This article examines whether the current high inflation in Canada is demand–pull or supply–push.

Description: The pandemic has had an unprecedented impact on the Canadian economy. This impact was uneven across different workers and businesses. However, there is little information available on how businesses were affected by and survived through the pandemic according to the characteristics of their owners, especially those owned by certain groups such as women and immigrants. This article uses a linkage of the monthly business openings and closures with the Canadian Employer-Employee Dynamics Database and the Canada Emergency Wage Subsidy to study the survival rate and employment growth of businesses by gender, and immigrant status of owners.

Description: This article explores trends in patent applications made by Canadian-resident businesses for advanced technologies from 2001 to 2019, drawing on Eurostat's aggregation of high-tech patents. Approximately one-third of applications fall under high-tech categories, the bulk of which were associated with Communication, Computer, and Automated business equipment technologies. While these fields saw growth until 2012, a subsequent decline occurred, notably in Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing. Biotechnology, Semiconductors, and Lasers showed limited dynamism, while aviation technology applications surged by nearly twentyfold over the period.

Description: This technical paper describes the collection of food price data and the methodologies that are used to provide Canadians with accurate and timely food inflation data in both the CPI and the monthly average retail prices table.

Description: Since 1984, an annual international symposium on methodological issues has been sponsored by Statistics Canada. Proceedings have been available since 1987.

Description: Studies on Gender and Intersecting Identities brings together and analyzes a wide range of important issues related to gender, age, sexuality, disability, ethnocultural characteristics and other intersecting identities. Through a Gender-based Analysis Plus (GBA+) lens, these studies will enrich Canadians' understanding of how gender and other identity factors affect the social, economic and financial participation and status of diverse groups of Canadians.

Description: This publication features short and accessible analytical articles that delve further into key findings and emerging trends identified in Census of Agriculture and other data sources related to agriculture. Subjects of analysis include matters related to farm land, crops, livestock, farm finances, technology, the environment and the farm population, as well as other economic and social aspects of Canada’s agriculture industry. Analytical articles are written in plain language and are intended to be a valuable source of information for a broad audience, including policy analysts, students, researchers, agricultural operators, the media and the public at large.

Description: The papers in this series cover a variety of topics related to labour statistics. The studies are intended to show recent or historical trends observed with the surveys produced by the Centre for Labour Market Information, i.e. the Labour Force Survey, Survey of Employment Payrolls and Hours, Employment insurance Coverage Survey, Employment insurance statistics as well as administrative data sources. All the papers in this analytical series go through institutional and peer review to ensure that they conform to Statistics Canada's mandate as a government statistical agency and adhere to generally accepted standards of good professional practice.

Description: The publication features products and data highlights that focus on rural areas of Canada or that have a rural dimension present. Rural areas are typically areas outside of Canada's Census Metropolitan Areas (CMA) and Census Agglomerations (CA). The publication also includes explanatory notes on key concepts and definitions.

Description: Departmental Plans (DP) are individual expenditure plans for each department and agency. These reports provide increased levels of detail over a three-year period on an organization's main priorities by strategic outcome, program and planned/expected results, including links to related resource requirements presented in the Main Estimates. In conjunction with the Main Estimates, Departmental Plans serve to inform members of Parliament on planned expenditures of departments and agencies, and support Parliament's consideration of supply bills. The DPs are typically tabled soon after the Main Estimates by the President of the Treasury Board.

Description: These short analytical articles, based on data from the Census of Population, provide analysis on specific topics of interest related to the Canadian population. They are available with each Census of Population major release.

Description: This publication presents annual estimates of the total population and annual estimates by age and gender for Canada, provinces and territories. It also presents estimates of the following components of population change: births, deaths, immigration, emigration, returning emigration, net non-permanent residents and inter-provincial migration, the latter by origin and destination. As in the case of population estimates, the components are also available for the total population and by age and gender.

The Annual demographic estimates - Canada, provinces and territories publication contains the most recent estimates as well as an annual historical series. It also contains highlights and analysis of the most current demographic trends, as well as a brief description of the concepts, methods and data quality of the estimates.

Description: The series includes analysis on the characteristics of those with elementary-secondary, postsecondary and apprenticeship training. It also features analysis on students’ pathways through the education system and into the labour market-- including findings for different levels of education and fields of study. This research highlights specific groups of interest such as youth, women, men, immigrants, Indigenous people (First Nations people, Métis and Inuit) and visible minorities, and how intersections between these characteristics influence people’s educational experiences. Other topics include access to education; national and international adult performance assessments; use of technology; lifelong learning; and adult education.

Description: The papers in this series cover a variety of technical topics related to the Centre for Labour Market Information programs, such as the Labour Force Survey, the Survey of Employment Payrolls and Hours, the Employment insurance Coverage Survey, the Employment Insurance Statistics program as well as data from administrative sources.