Analysis

Description:

The attractiveness of the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) rests on its close similarity to a normal experimental design. On the other hand, it is of limited applicability since it is not often the case that units are assigned to the treatment group on the basis of an observable (to the analyst) pre-program measure. Besides, it only allows identification of the mean impact on a very specific subpopulation. In this technical paper, we show that the RDD straightforwardly generalizes to the instances in which the units' eligibility is established on an observable pre-program measure with eligible units allowed to freely self-select into the program. This set-up also proves to be very convenient for building a specification test on conventional non-experimental estimators of the program mean impact. The data requirements are clearly described.

Description:

In 1961, the European Commission launched a harmonized qualitative survey program to the consumers and the heads of companies (industry, services, construction, retail trade, investments) that covers more than 40 countries today. These qualitative surveys are aimed at understanding the economic situation of these companies. Results are available a few days after the end of the reference period, well before the results of the quantitative surveys.

Although qualitative, these surveys have quickly become an essential tool of the cyclical diagnosis and of the short-term economic forecast. This product shows how these surveys are used by the European Commission, in particular by the Directorate-General for economic and financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) and the Statistical Office of the European Communities (EUROSTAT), to evaluate the economic situation of the Euro zone.

The first part of this product briefly presents the harmonized European business and consumer survey program. In the second part, we look at how DG ECFIN calculates a coincident indicator of the economic activity, using a dynamic factorial analysis of the questions of the survey in industry. This type of indicator makes it possible, in addition, to study the convergence of the economic cycles of the member states. The quantitative short-term indicators for the Euro zone are often criticized for the delay with which they are published. In the third part, we look at how EUROSTAT plans to publish flash estimates of the industrial product price index (IPPI) resulting from econometric models integrating the business survey series. Lastly, we show how these surveys can be used to forecast the gross domestic product (GDP) and to define proxies for some non-available key indicators (new orders in industry, etc.).

Description:

This project seeks to shed light not only on the degree to which individuals are stuck in the low-income range, but also on those who have sufficient opportunity to move into the upper part of the income distribution. It also seeks to compare patterns of mobility through the income distribution in North America and Europe, shedding light on the impact of different models of integration. Cross-National Equivalent File data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) for the United Kingdom, the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) for Germany, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) for the United States and the Survey of Labour Income Dynamics (SLID) for Canada offer a comparative analysis of the dynamics of household income during the 1990s, paying particular attention to both low- and high-income dynamics. Canadian administrative data drawn from income tax files are also used. These panel datasets range in length from six years (for the SLID) to almost 20 years (for the PSID and the Canadian administrative data). The analysis focuses on developments during the 1990s, but also explores the sensitivity of the results to changes in the length of the period analysed.

The analysis begins by offering a broad descriptive overview of the major characteristics and events (demographic versus labour market) that determine levels and changes in adjusted household incomes. Attention is paid to movements into and out of low- and high- income ranges. A number of definitions are used, incorporating absolute and relative notions of poverty. The sensitivity of the results to the use of various equivalence scales is examined. An overview offers a broad picture of the state of household income in each country and the relative roles of family structure, the labour market and welfare state in determining income mobility. The paper employs discrete time-hazard methods to model the dynamics of entry to and exit from both low and high income.

Both observed and unobserved heterogeneity are controlled for with the intention of highlighting differences in the determinants of the transition rates between the countries. This is done in a way that assesses the importance of the relative roles of family, market and state. Attention is also paid to important institutional changes, most notably the increasing integration of product and labour markets in North America and Europe.

Description:

Practitioners often use data collected from complex surveys (such as labour force and health surveys involving stratified cluster sampling) to fit logistic regression and other models of interest. A great deal of effort over the last two decades has been spent on developing methods to analyse survey data that take account of design features. This paper looks at an alternative method known as inverse sampling.

Specialized programs, such as SUDAAN and WESVAR, are also available to implement some of the methods developed to take into account the design features. However, these methods require additional information such as survey weights, design effects or cluster identification of microdata and thus, another method is necessary.

Inverse sampling (Hinkins et al., Survey Methodology, 1977) provides an alternative approach by undoing the complex data structures so that standard methods can be applied. Repeated subsamples with simple random structure are drawn and each subsample is analysed by standard methods and is combined to increase the efficiency. Although computer-intensive, this method has the potential to preserve confidentiality of microdata files. A drawback of the method is that it can lead to biased estimates of regression parameters when the subsample sizes are small (as in the case of stratified cluster sampling).

In this paper, we propose using the estimating equation approach that combines the subsamples before estimation and thus leads to nearly unbiased estimates of regression parameters regardless of subsample sizes. This method is computationally less intensive than the original method. We apply the method to cluster-correlated data generated from a nested error linear regression model to illustrate its advantages. A real dataset from a Statistics Canada survey will also be analysed using the estimating equation method.

Description:

Survey sampling is a statistical domain that has been slow to take advantage of flexible regression methods. In this technical paper, two approaches are discussed that could be used to make these regression methods accessible: adapt the techniques to the complex survey design that has been used or sample the survey data so that the standard techniques are applicable.

In following the former route, we introduce techniques that account for the complex survey structure of the data for scatterplot smoothing and additive models. The use of penalized least squares in the sampling context is studied as a tool for the analysis of a general trend in a finite population. We focus on smooth regression with a normal error model. Ties in covariates abound for large scale surveys resulting in the application of scatterplot smoothers to means. The estimation of smooths (for example, smoothing splines) depends on the sampling design only via the sampling weights, meaning that standard software can be used for estimation. Inference for these curves is more challenging, as a result of correlations induced by the sampling design. We propose and illustrate tests that account for the sampling design. Illustrative examples are given using the Ontario health survey, including scatterplot smoothing, additive models and model diagnostics. In an attempt to resolve the problem by appropriate sampling of the survey data file, we discuss some of the hurdles that are faced when using this approach.

Description:

Analyses of data from social and economic surveys sometimes use generalized variance function models to approximate the design variance of point estimators of population means and proportions. Analysts may use the resulting standard error estimates to compute associated confidence intervals or test statistics for the means and proportions of interest. In comparison with design-based variance estimators computed directly from survey microdata, generalized variance function models have several potential advantages, as will be discussed in this paper, including operational simplicity; increased stability of standard errors; and, for cases involving public-use datasets, reduction of disclosure limitation problems arising from the public release of stratum and cluster indicators.

These potential advantages, however, may be offset in part by several inferential issues. First, the properties of inferential statistics based on generalized variance functions (e.g., confidence interval coverage rates and widths) depend heavily on the relative empirical magnitudes of the components of variability associated, respectively, with:

(a) the random selection of a subset of items used in estimation of the generalized variance function model(b) the selection of sample units under a complex sample design (c) the lack of fit of the generalized variance function model (d) the generation of a finite population under a superpopulation model.

Second, under conditions, one may link each of components (a) through (d) with different empirical measures of the predictive adequacy of a generalized variance function model. Consequently, these measures of predictive adequacy can offer us some insight into the extent to which a given generalized variance function model may be appropriate for inferential use in specific applications.

Some of the proposed diagnostics are applied to data from the US Survey of Doctoral Recipients and the US Current Employment Survey. For the Survey of Doctoral Recipients, components (a), (c) and (d) are of principal concern. For the Current Employment Survey, components (b), (c) and (d) receive principal attention, and the availability of population microdata allow the development of especially detailed models for components (b) and (c).

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Closing remarks

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Opening remarks of the Symposium 2002: Modelling Survey Data for Social and Economic Research, presented by David Binder.

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Keynote Address.

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This study examines trends in the internal migration of the Canadian-born and long-term immigrants into and out of Canada's three largest metropolitan areas.

Description:

There has been growing interest in recent years about the scope of tourism in Canada. In response to this demand for information, Statistics Canada has developed a Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) which provides some answers to questions such as: Which industries constitute 'the tourism industry'? What are the industry's gross domestic product (GDP) and employment rates? And what is the extent of tourism-related expenditures?

This article reports on the research that Statistics Canada has undertaken as part of an ongoing examination of the tourism industry.

Description:

Revised estimates of the Income and Expenditure Accounts (IEA) covering 1990 to 1993 have been released along with the estimates for the first quarter of 1994. These revised estimates reflect the most current source data and seasonal patterns. The annual revision of the different parts of the System of National Accounts is an integrated process. Revised estimates of two other parts of the system, the Balance of International Payments and Financial Flow Accounts, have been released simultaneously. Corresponding revisions to the monthly estimates of the gross domestic product (GDP), by industry and to the Input-Output Accounts at current and constant prices will be available at the end of August.

The first section of this paper reviews the current revisions to the GDP and the main aggregates. The second section analyses the revision patterns of selected income and expenditure aggregates of the GDP over the period 1980 to 1993. For further information on sources, methods and definitions employed in the IE A, refer to the Guide to the Income and Expenditure Accounts, Catalogue no. 13-603E, no. 1.

Description:

Revised estimates of the Income and Expenditure Accounts covering 1989 to 1992 have been released along with the estimates for the first quarter of 1993. These revised estimates reflect the most current source data and seasonal patterns. The annual revision of the different parts of the System of the National Accounts is an integrated process. As such, revised estimates of two other parts of the system -- the Balance of International Payments and Financial Flow Accounts -- have been released simultaneously. Corresponding revisions to the monthly estimates of Gross Domestic Product by Industry and to the Input-Output Accounts at current and constant prices are also available.

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This overview highlights the results from the survey of Work Arrangements.

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A glance at the wage trends of unionized workers over the last 13 years.

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An examination of trends in unemployment rate data as far back as 1921.

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Self-employment is an increasingly popular form of non-standard work.

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How does the Work Sharing Program prevent layoffs?

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In 1989, the Survey of Literacy Skills Used in Daily Activities was conducted to assess the reading and numerous skills of Canada's adult population. This article reports the survey's main findings.

Description: This article takes a closer look into the largest contributors and detractors to growth in each province and territory in 2023. Using data from the May 1, 2024 provincial and territorial GDP by industry release as a starting point, a more comprehensive picture of each jurisdiction’s 2023 economic performance is presented by integrating other economic indicators such as population, prices and labour market measures, and by examining the context in which industries grew or contracted during the reference period.

Description: This fact sheet presents data on icebergs off the coast of Newfoundland and Labrador. The article covers reported iceberg data collected by the International Iceberg Patrol. It also covers how icebergs interact with ocean ecosystems, and the economic and cultural benefits that they provide in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Description: The document focuses on the evolution of Statistics Canada's labour productivity program, tracing its historical background, outlining its structure, as well as detailing the methodology and data sources used. It then discusses the diverse applications of provincial productivity data, identifies key users of productivity statistics, and highlights essential considerations for their interpretation. Finally, the document addresses the review process for quarterly and annual productivity measures and recent program improvements.

Description: Using data from the 2022 Time Use Survey, this study explores how teleworking is associated with time use and well-being. Two primary research questions are addressed: First, is teleworking associated with time use – such as time in sleep, paid and unpaid work, and leisure? Second, is teleworking associated with work-life balance and time pressure?

Description: This article sheds light on the diverse experiences of self-employed workers in Canada by analysing additional indicators such as the prevalence of gig work, plans for the future, and the ability to find clients.

Description: This article is the first main release by Statistics Canada based on findings from the 2022 Canadian Survey on Disability (CSD). It is divided into three sections—demographics, employment, and income—and provides a general snapshot on persons with disabilities to inform on government priorities and community interest in the areas of disability prevalence, labour market participation, and income inequality. Where possible, the report will be compared with results from the 2017 CSD to provide insight into changes over the past five years.

Description: Using data from the 2021 Census, this study investigates the financial impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on racialized workers, focusing on the change in median employment income from 2019 to 2020, and the extent to which payments from the Canada Emergency Response Benefit offset income losses in 2020 among workers affected by the pandemic. Differences between racialized and non-racialized workers are investigated, along with differences among groups of racialized workers, as well as the intersectionality of race and gender.

Description: With an increase in the number of international students and a greater need for affordable housing, questions have arisen about international students housing experiences. This article examines international students’ prevalence of living in unsuitable housing across municipalities enumerated in the 2021 Census of Population long-form questionnaire. The report also presents the rates of unsuitable housing for international students from different source countries and provides comparisons with Canadian-born students.

Description: Selecting immigrants with high levels of education increases their chances of economic success. Immigrants with a bachelor’s degree or higher are more adaptable to changes in the labour market and have steeper growth in employment earnings than those with a trades or high school education. However, many immigrants with a bachelor’s degree or higher have occupations that underutilize their skills, which can reduce their employment income, productivity and well-being. This article updates previously documented trends in education–occupation mismatch with census data from 2001 to 2021.

Description: It is well documented that earnings vary considerably by population group (White, Black, Latin American, etc.). One of the possible reasons may be the fact that educational attainment also varies considerably by population group. Currently, there is a lack of information on the educational pathways of individuals from various population groups who began a postsecondary education program. This article fills this gap by documenting various aspects of the postsecondary experience of different population groups with regard to bachelor’s degree programs.

Description: Once every five years, the Census of Population provides a detailed and comprehensive statistical portrait of Canada that is vital to our country. It is the primary source of sociodemographic data for specific population groups such as lone-parent families, Indigenous peoples, immigrants, seniors and language groups.

In order to help users of census products to better understand the various Census of Population concepts, Statistics Canada has developed, in the context of the activities of the 2021 Census and previous censuses, a collection of short videos. These videos are a reference source for users who are new to census concepts or those who have some experience with these concepts, but may need a refresher or would like to expand their knowledge.

Description: The Departmental Sustainable Development Strategy (DSDS) outlines departmental actions, with measurable performance indicators, that support the implementation strategies of the 2022-2026 Federal Sustainable Development Strategy. The DSDS further outlines Statistics Canada’s sustainable development vision to produce data to help track whether Canada is moving toward a more sustainable future and highlights projects with links to supporting sustainable development goals.

Description: This series provides detailed documentation on the issues, concepts, methodology, data quality and other relevant research related to household expenditures from the Survey of Household Spending, the Homeowner Repair and Renovation Survey and the Food Expenditure Survey.

Description: This report summarizes the annual achievements of the Methodology Research and Development Program (MRDP) sponsored by the Modern Statistical Methods and Data Science Branch at Statistics Canada. This program covers research and development activities in statistical methods with potentially broad application in the agency’s statistical programs; these activities would otherwise be less likely to be carried out during the provision of regular methodology services to those programs. The MRDP also includes activities that provide support in the application of past successful developments in order to promote the use of the results of research and development work. Selected prospective research activities are also presented.

Description: The series covers environment accounts and indicators, environmental surveys, spatial environmental information and other research related to environmental statistics. The technical paper series is intended to stimulate discussion on a range of environmental topics.

Description: This bulletin presents the most up-to-date available information extracted from all of the Aviation Statistics Centre's surveys. Regular features include releases on principal statistics for Canada's major air carriers, airport data, fare basis statistics and traffic data for Canada's most important markets.

Description: This series of analytical articles provides insights on the socio-economic environment in rural communities in Canada. New articles will be released periodically.

Description: Statistics Canada is committed to sharing our knowledge and expertise to help all Canadians develop their data literacy skills by developing a series of data literacy training resources. Data literacy is a key skill needed in the 21st century. It is generally described as the ability to derive meaning from data. Data literacy focuses on the competencies or skills involved in working with data, including the ability to read, analyze, interpret, visualize data, as well as to drive good decision-making.

Description: The fact sheets in this series provide an "at-a-glance" overview of particular aspects of education in Canada and summarize key data trends in selected tables published as part of the Pan-Canadian Education Indicators Program (PCEIP).

The PCEIP mission is to publish a set of statistical measures on education systems in Canada for policy makers, practitioners and the general public to monitor the performance of education systems across jurisdictions and over time. PCEIP is a joint venture of Statistics Canada and the Council of Ministers of Education, Canada (CMEC).

Description: Statistics Canada's Quality of Employment in Canada publication is intended to provide Canadians and Canadian organizations with a better understanding of quality of employment using an internationally-supported statistical framework. Quality of employment is approached as a multidimensional concept, characterized by different elements, which relate to human needs in various ways. To cover all relevant aspects, the framework identified seven dimensions and twelve sub-dimensions of quality of employment.