Analysis

Description:

There is much interest in using data from longitudinal surveys to help understand life history processes such as education, employment, fertility, health and marriage. The analysis of data on the durations of spells or sojourns that individuals spend in certain states (e.g., employment, marriage) is a primary tool in studying such processes. This paper examines methods for analysing duration data that address important features associated with longitudinal surveys: the use of complex survey designs in heterogeneous populations; missing or inaccurate information about the timing of events; and the possibility of non-ignorable dropout or censoring mechanisms. Parametric and non-parametric techniques for estimation and for model checking are considered. Both new and existing methodology are proposed and applied to duration data from Canada's Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID).

Description:

A developmental trajectory describes the course of a behaviour over age or time. This technical paper provides an overview of a semi-parametric, group-based method for analysing developmental trajectories. This methodology provides an alternative to assuming a homogenous population of trajectories as is done in standard growth modelling.

Four capabilities are described: (1) the capability to identify, rather than assume, distinctive groups of trajectories; (2) the capability to estimate the proportion of the population following each such trajectory group; (3) the capability to relate group membership probability to individual characteristics and circumstances; and (4) the capability to use the group membership probabilities for various other purposes, such as creating profiles of group members.

In addition, two important extensions of the method are described: the capability to add time-varying covariates to trajectory models and the capability to estimate joint trajectory models of distinct but related behaviours. The former provides the statistical capacity for testing if a contemporary factor, such as an experimental intervention or a non-experimental event like pregnancy, deflects a pre-existing trajectory. The latter provides the capability to study the unfolding of distinct but related behaviours such as problematic childhood behaviour and adolescent drug abuse.

Description:

The attractiveness of the Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) rests on its close similarity to a normal experimental design. On the other hand, it is of limited applicability since it is not often the case that units are assigned to the treatment group on the basis of an observable (to the analyst) pre-program measure. Besides, it only allows identification of the mean impact on a very specific subpopulation. In this technical paper, we show that the RDD straightforwardly generalizes to the instances in which the units' eligibility is established on an observable pre-program measure with eligible units allowed to freely self-select into the program. This set-up also proves to be very convenient for building a specification test on conventional non-experimental estimators of the program mean impact. The data requirements are clearly described.

Description:

In 1961, the European Commission launched a harmonized qualitative survey program to the consumers and the heads of companies (industry, services, construction, retail trade, investments) that covers more than 40 countries today. These qualitative surveys are aimed at understanding the economic situation of these companies. Results are available a few days after the end of the reference period, well before the results of the quantitative surveys.

Although qualitative, these surveys have quickly become an essential tool of the cyclical diagnosis and of the short-term economic forecast. This product shows how these surveys are used by the European Commission, in particular by the Directorate-General for economic and financial Affairs (DG ECFIN) and the Statistical Office of the European Communities (EUROSTAT), to evaluate the economic situation of the Euro zone.

The first part of this product briefly presents the harmonized European business and consumer survey program. In the second part, we look at how DG ECFIN calculates a coincident indicator of the economic activity, using a dynamic factorial analysis of the questions of the survey in industry. This type of indicator makes it possible, in addition, to study the convergence of the economic cycles of the member states. The quantitative short-term indicators for the Euro zone are often criticized for the delay with which they are published. In the third part, we look at how EUROSTAT plans to publish flash estimates of the industrial product price index (IPPI) resulting from econometric models integrating the business survey series. Lastly, we show how these surveys can be used to forecast the gross domestic product (GDP) and to define proxies for some non-available key indicators (new orders in industry, etc.).

Description:

This project seeks to shed light not only on the degree to which individuals are stuck in the low-income range, but also on those who have sufficient opportunity to move into the upper part of the income distribution. It also seeks to compare patterns of mobility through the income distribution in North America and Europe, shedding light on the impact of different models of integration. Cross-National Equivalent File data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) for the United Kingdom, the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP) for Germany, the Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID) for the United States and the Survey of Labour Income Dynamics (SLID) for Canada offer a comparative analysis of the dynamics of household income during the 1990s, paying particular attention to both low- and high-income dynamics. Canadian administrative data drawn from income tax files are also used. These panel datasets range in length from six years (for the SLID) to almost 20 years (for the PSID and the Canadian administrative data). The analysis focuses on developments during the 1990s, but also explores the sensitivity of the results to changes in the length of the period analysed.

The analysis begins by offering a broad descriptive overview of the major characteristics and events (demographic versus labour market) that determine levels and changes in adjusted household incomes. Attention is paid to movements into and out of low- and high- income ranges. A number of definitions are used, incorporating absolute and relative notions of poverty. The sensitivity of the results to the use of various equivalence scales is examined. An overview offers a broad picture of the state of household income in each country and the relative roles of family structure, the labour market and welfare state in determining income mobility. The paper employs discrete time-hazard methods to model the dynamics of entry to and exit from both low and high income.

Both observed and unobserved heterogeneity are controlled for with the intention of highlighting differences in the determinants of the transition rates between the countries. This is done in a way that assesses the importance of the relative roles of family, market and state. Attention is also paid to important institutional changes, most notably the increasing integration of product and labour markets in North America and Europe.

Description:

Practitioners often use data collected from complex surveys (such as labour force and health surveys involving stratified cluster sampling) to fit logistic regression and other models of interest. A great deal of effort over the last two decades has been spent on developing methods to analyse survey data that take account of design features. This paper looks at an alternative method known as inverse sampling.

Specialized programs, such as SUDAAN and WESVAR, are also available to implement some of the methods developed to take into account the design features. However, these methods require additional information such as survey weights, design effects or cluster identification of microdata and thus, another method is necessary.

Inverse sampling (Hinkins et al., Survey Methodology, 1977) provides an alternative approach by undoing the complex data structures so that standard methods can be applied. Repeated subsamples with simple random structure are drawn and each subsample is analysed by standard methods and is combined to increase the efficiency. Although computer-intensive, this method has the potential to preserve confidentiality of microdata files. A drawback of the method is that it can lead to biased estimates of regression parameters when the subsample sizes are small (as in the case of stratified cluster sampling).

In this paper, we propose using the estimating equation approach that combines the subsamples before estimation and thus leads to nearly unbiased estimates of regression parameters regardless of subsample sizes. This method is computationally less intensive than the original method. We apply the method to cluster-correlated data generated from a nested error linear regression model to illustrate its advantages. A real dataset from a Statistics Canada survey will also be analysed using the estimating equation method.

Description:

Survey sampling is a statistical domain that has been slow to take advantage of flexible regression methods. In this technical paper, two approaches are discussed that could be used to make these regression methods accessible: adapt the techniques to the complex survey design that has been used or sample the survey data so that the standard techniques are applicable.

In following the former route, we introduce techniques that account for the complex survey structure of the data for scatterplot smoothing and additive models. The use of penalized least squares in the sampling context is studied as a tool for the analysis of a general trend in a finite population. We focus on smooth regression with a normal error model. Ties in covariates abound for large scale surveys resulting in the application of scatterplot smoothers to means. The estimation of smooths (for example, smoothing splines) depends on the sampling design only via the sampling weights, meaning that standard software can be used for estimation. Inference for these curves is more challenging, as a result of correlations induced by the sampling design. We propose and illustrate tests that account for the sampling design. Illustrative examples are given using the Ontario health survey, including scatterplot smoothing, additive models and model diagnostics. In an attempt to resolve the problem by appropriate sampling of the survey data file, we discuss some of the hurdles that are faced when using this approach.

Description:

Analyses of data from social and economic surveys sometimes use generalized variance function models to approximate the design variance of point estimators of population means and proportions. Analysts may use the resulting standard error estimates to compute associated confidence intervals or test statistics for the means and proportions of interest. In comparison with design-based variance estimators computed directly from survey microdata, generalized variance function models have several potential advantages, as will be discussed in this paper, including operational simplicity; increased stability of standard errors; and, for cases involving public-use datasets, reduction of disclosure limitation problems arising from the public release of stratum and cluster indicators.

These potential advantages, however, may be offset in part by several inferential issues. First, the properties of inferential statistics based on generalized variance functions (e.g., confidence interval coverage rates and widths) depend heavily on the relative empirical magnitudes of the components of variability associated, respectively, with:

(a) the random selection of a subset of items used in estimation of the generalized variance function model(b) the selection of sample units under a complex sample design (c) the lack of fit of the generalized variance function model (d) the generation of a finite population under a superpopulation model.

Second, under conditions, one may link each of components (a) through (d) with different empirical measures of the predictive adequacy of a generalized variance function model. Consequently, these measures of predictive adequacy can offer us some insight into the extent to which a given generalized variance function model may be appropriate for inferential use in specific applications.

Some of the proposed diagnostics are applied to data from the US Survey of Doctoral Recipients and the US Current Employment Survey. For the Survey of Doctoral Recipients, components (a), (c) and (d) are of principal concern. For the Current Employment Survey, components (b), (c) and (d) receive principal attention, and the availability of population microdata allow the development of especially detailed models for components (b) and (c).

Description:

Closing remarks

Description:

Opening remarks of the Symposium 2002: Modelling Survey Data for Social and Economic Research, presented by David Binder.

Description: From January 2nd to February 5th, 2024, Statistics Canada conducted the Canadian Survey on Business Conditions. The purpose of this survey is to collect information on businesses in Canada related to emerging issues. This iteration of the survey focuses on business expectations and business conditions in Canada. In addition, the questionnaire for the first quarter of 2024 includes a component specifically for non-profit organizations (NPOs). The intent of this set of questions is to address a present data gap and to provide a better understanding of the non-profit sector. This infographic presents key results from this.

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: This infographic presents some highlights from the 2022 Canadian Income Survey data.

Description: Canada’s Poverty Reduction Strategy introduced the Official Poverty Line for Canada and a dashboard of 12 indicators to track progress on poverty reduction for Canadians and their households. This infographic presents trend information for Canada's official poverty rate and the associated 12 indicators.

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: This infographic examines the early child care experiences of children with long-term conditions or disabilities using data from the 2023 Survey on Early Learning and Child Care arrangements – Children with Long-term Conditions and Disabilities (SELCCA – CLCD). It explores the types of extra support needed while in child care, the common difficulties they experienced as well as the impacts on the parent or guardian having difficulty finding a child care arrangement.

Description: Using data from the 2023 Survey on Early Learning and Child Care arrangements – Children with Long-term Conditions and Disabilities (SELCCA – CLCD), this American Sign Language video examines the early child care experiences of children with long-term conditions or disabilities.

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: Release published in The Daily – Statistics Canada’s official release bulletin

Description: This article explores results from the survey related to the use of AI in producing goods and delivering services. Furthermore, this article explains the specific types of AI being used, such as machine learning, virtual agents and voice recognition, as well as the impact of AI adoption on tasks performed by employees and on employment levels. It involves an examination of the data produced by the Canadian Survey on Business Conditions.

Description: Extreme heat has significant impacts on mortality. In Canada, past research has analyzed the degree to which non-accidental mortality increases during single extreme heat events; however, few studies have considered multiple causes of death and the impacts of extreme heat events on mortality over longer time periods. This study analyzes the impacts of extreme heat events on nonaccidental, cardiovascular, and respiratory deaths from 2000 to 2020 in 12 of the largest cities in Canada.

Description: Optimal oral health is an essential element of healthy aging. Oral health problems such as tooth loss, periodontal disease, and dry mouth accumulate throughout adult life and worsen with increasing age. Using data from the 2019/2020 Canadian Health Survey on Seniors, this study explores the link between dental insurance, income, and oral health care access among seniors (aged 65 and over) in Canada. It contributes to the understanding of oral health care among seniors before the implementation of the Canadian Dental Care Plan.

Description: This paper describes the composition of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket and the changes introduced with the 2024 basket update, based on 2023 expenditure weights.

Description: This article examines trends in rates of employment and unemployment, as well as hourly wages and work hours, for the year 2023, and explores how disability intersects with age, sex, educational attainment, and racialized groups to influence labour market outcomes.

Description: With the proportion of small businesses making up nearly all of the employer businesses in Canada, small businesses are an important role in employing Canadians and are a significant driver towards economic recovery. This article provides insights on the expectations of small businesses as well as the unique conditions faced by these businesses in the second quarter of 2024. It involves an examination of the data produced by the Canadian Survey on Business Conditions.

Description: The purpose of this document is to define the concept of peer groups, to give an overview of how they are created and to demonstrate their usefulness. This paper presents the 2023 classification of the peer groups.

Description: This paper investigates the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on inbound visitors to Canada, and their tourism-related spending, covering the period from 2018 to 2023.

Description: This study examines the economic footprint created by the Canadian research and development pharmaceutical sector on the Canadian economy in 2021, including a focus on the contribution of Innovative Medicines Canada’s members. While the impact of the sector’s medical research is well known, less known are the economic impacts of the sector on the Canadian economy, such as the value generated, the jobs supported and the investments made.

Description: This article takes a closer look into the largest contributors and detractors to growth in each province and territory in 2023. Using data from the May 1, 2024 provincial and territorial GDP by industry release as a starting point, a more comprehensive picture of each jurisdiction’s 2023 economic performance is presented by integrating other economic indicators such as population, prices and labour market measures, and by examining the context in which industries grew or contracted during the reference period.

Description: This publication presents energy balance sheets in natural units and heat equivalents in primary and secondary forms, by province. Each balance sheet shows data on production, trade, interprovincial movements, conversion and consumption by sector. Analytical tables and details on non-energy products are also included. It includes explanatory notes, a historical energy summary table and data analysis. The publication also presents data on natural gas liquids, electricity generated from fossil fuels, solid wood waste and spent pulping liquor.

Description: Once every five years, the Census of Population provides a detailed and comprehensive statistical portrait of Canada that is vital to our country. It is the primary source of sociodemographic data for specific population groups such as lone-parent families, Indigenous peoples, immigrants, seniors and language groups.

In order to help users of census products to better understand the various Census of Population concepts, Statistics Canada has developed, in the context of the activities of the 2021 Census and previous censuses, a collection of short videos. These videos are a reference source for users who are new to census concepts or those who have some experience with these concepts, but may need a refresher or would like to expand their knowledge.

Description: The Departmental Sustainable Development Strategy (DSDS) outlines departmental actions, with measurable performance indicators, that support the implementation strategies of the 2022-2026 Federal Sustainable Development Strategy. The DSDS further outlines Statistics Canada’s sustainable development vision to produce data to help track whether Canada is moving toward a more sustainable future and highlights projects with links to supporting sustainable development goals.

Description: This series provides detailed documentation on the issues, concepts, methodology, data quality and other relevant research related to household expenditures from the Survey of Household Spending, the Homeowner Repair and Renovation Survey and the Food Expenditure Survey.

Description: This report summarizes the annual achievements of the Methodology Research and Development Program (MRDP) sponsored by the Modern Statistical Methods and Data Science Branch at Statistics Canada. This program covers research and development activities in statistical methods with potentially broad application in the agency’s statistical programs; these activities would otherwise be less likely to be carried out during the provision of regular methodology services to those programs. The MRDP also includes activities that provide support in the application of past successful developments in order to promote the use of the results of research and development work. Selected prospective research activities are also presented.

Description: The series covers environment accounts and indicators, environmental surveys, spatial environmental information and other research related to environmental statistics. The technical paper series is intended to stimulate discussion on a range of environmental topics.

Description: This bulletin presents the most up-to-date available information extracted from all of the Aviation Statistics Centre's surveys. Regular features include releases on principal statistics for Canada's major air carriers, airport data, fare basis statistics and traffic data for Canada's most important markets.

Description: This series of analytical articles provides insights on the socio-economic environment in rural communities in Canada. New articles will be released periodically.

Description: Statistics Canada is committed to sharing our knowledge and expertise to help all Canadians develop their data literacy skills by developing a series of data literacy training resources. Data literacy is a key skill needed in the 21st century. It is generally described as the ability to derive meaning from data. Data literacy focuses on the competencies or skills involved in working with data, including the ability to read, analyze, interpret, visualize data, as well as to drive good decision-making.

Description: The fact sheets in this series provide an "at-a-glance" overview of particular aspects of education in Canada and summarize key data trends in selected tables published as part of the Pan-Canadian Education Indicators Program (PCEIP).

The PCEIP mission is to publish a set of statistical measures on education systems in Canada for policy makers, practitioners and the general public to monitor the performance of education systems across jurisdictions and over time. PCEIP is a joint venture of Statistics Canada and the Council of Ministers of Education, Canada (CMEC).