Projections of the Indigenous Populations: Interactive Dashboard

Classifications of Indigenous identity

In this visualization tool, Indigenous populations are broken down into two distinct classifications. The first classification, known as the variant that gives precedence to Indigenous groups, emphasizes the Indigenous group characteristic. It consists of three main populations: First Nations people, Métis and Inuit (single identities). It must be noted that the total Indigenous identity population of this classification also includes individuals who identify with more than one group (multiple identities) and those who do not identify with an Indigenous group but who are Registered or Treaty Indians and/or members of a First Nation or an Indian Band.

The second classification—the variant that gives precedence to Registered or Treaty Indian status—instead focuses on Registered or Treaty Indian status first, then the Indigenous group (single identities) second. It consists of four main populations: Registered or Treaty Indians, First Nations people without Registered or Treaty Indian status, Métis without Registered or Treaty Indian status, and Inuit without Registered or Treaty Indian status. It must be noted that the total Indigenous identity population of this classification also includes individuals who are not Registered or Treaty Indians but self-identify with more than one Indigenous group (multiple identities), as well as those who do not self-identify with an Indigenous group, but who are members of a First Nation or an Indian Band.

In total, the Indigenous identity population is the same in both classifications.

Base population for projections

The base population for projections is derived from 2016 Census (long-form) data, for which the weights were adjusted to account for the population living in collective dwellings and institutions, for the census net undercoverage and for the population living in incompletely enumerated Indian reserves and settlements.

Populations observed in 2016

The population figures for 2016 are as of May 10, the reference date for the 2016 Census. These population figures were extracted directly from the base population file of the projection. The population figures are in thousands and are rounded to the nearest thousand. Therefore, a value of zero can be either a true zero or a rounded value less than 500.

Populations projected from 2017 to 2041

For the period from 2017 to 2041, these are projected populations based on three projection scenarios. For these years, the presented population figures are in person-years, that is, the number of years lived in a given state by the individuals who make up the population from January 1 to December 31 of a given year. The population figures are in thousands and are rounded to the nearest thousand. Therefore, a value of zero can be either a true zero or a rounded value less than 500.

Projection scenarios

A projection scenario consists of a set of assumptions about the demographic and non-demographic components used to make a population projection. In this visualization tool, three plausible scenarios from the perspective of past trends and recent demographic developments are presented: a low-growth scenario, a medium-growth scenario and a high-growth scenario. The following is a brief description of each of the three scenarios:

Low-growth scenario:

The low-growth scenario combines the low assumptions for the Indigenous populations in regards to the four components listed below. The assumptions for the other components projected in the model are the same for each of the three projection scenarios presented in this data table.

• Slow decline of fertility over 25 years, reaching 1.7 children per woman in 2041.
• Slow gradual increase in the life expectancy at birth between 2016 and 2041.
• Low level of intragenerational ethnic mobility at the start then converging to the 1996-2016 average level by 2041.
• 34,000 new registrations to the Indian Register related to Bill S-3 from 2018 to 2041.

Medium-growth scenario:

The medium-growth scenario combines the medium assumptions for the Indigenous populations in regards to the four components listed below. The assumptions for the other components projected in the model are the same for each of the three scenarios presented in this data table.

• Slight decline of fertility at the beginning of the projection followed by a slight increase to reach its starting level of 1.9 children per woman in 2041.
• Moderate gradual increase in the life expectancy at birth between 2016 and 2041.
• Recent observed level of intragenerational ethnic mobility at the start then converging to the 1996-2016 average level by 2041.
• 66,000 new registrations to the Indian Register related to Bill S-3 from 2018 to 2041.

High-growth scenario:

The high-growth scenario combines the high assumptions for the Indigenous populations in regards to the four components listed below. The assumptions for the other components projected in the model are the same for each of the three scenarios presented in this data table.

• Slow increase of fertility over 25 years, reaching 2.2 children per woman in 2041.
• Fast gradual increase in the life expectancy at birth between 2016 and 2041.
• High level of intragenerational ethnic mobility at the start then converging to the 1996-2016 average level by 2041.
• 251,000 new registrations to the Indian Register related to Bill S-3 from 2018 to 2041.

For more details on the assumptions and scenarios, please refer to “Projections of the Indigenous populations and households in Canada, 2016 to 2041: Overview of data sources, methods, assumptions and scenarios” in Demosim: Reports and Analytical Studies (Catalogue number 17200001). Please note that demographic projections are not predictions. Please consider the range of results given by the different scenarios instead of trying to find a more probable scenario.

Area of residence

This geographic variable includes four mutually exclusive regions:

1. on reserve
2. inside Inuit Nunangat
3. in census metropolitan areas (CMAs), off reserve and outside Inuit Nunangat
4. outside of CMAs, off reserve and outside Inuit Nunangat.

Note that the geographic areas “on reserve” and “inside Inuit Nunangat” are mutually exclusive by nature. Outside these two geographic areas, the population is subdivided by whether it resides inside or outside CMAs.

On reserve

“On reserve” includes six census subdivision (CSD) types legally affiliated with First Nations or Indian bands as defined in the 2016 Census: Indian reserve (IRI), Indian settlement (S-É) (except for the four Indian settlements of Champagne Landing 10, Klukshu, Two Mile and Two and One-Half Mile Village and Kloo Lake located in Yukon), Indian government district (IGD), terres réservées aux Cris (TC), terres réservées aux Naskapis (TK) and Nisga'a land (NL).

Users must note that the projected data for on-reserve populations are more affected by the fact that some Indian reserves and settlements were not enumerated in certain provinces (Quebec, Ontario, Alberta and British Columbia) in the 2016 Census.

Inside Inuit Nunangat

“Inside Inuit Nunangat” includes the communities located in the four Inuit regions: Nunatsiavut (Northern coastal Labrador), Nunavik (Northern Quebec), the territory of Nunavut and the Inuvialuit region of the Northwest Territories. These regions collectively encompass the area traditionally occupied by Inuit in Canada.

In CMAs, off reserve and outside Inuit Nunangat

“In CMAs, off reserve and outside Inuit Nunangat” includes the 35 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) of Canada identified in the 2016 Census, excluding the “on reserve” and “inside Inuit Nunangat” parts.

Outside of CMAs, off reserve and outside Inuit Nunangat

“Outside of CMAs, off reserve and outside Inuit Nunangat” includes all regions outside of census metropolitan areas (CMAs), reserves and Inuit Nunangat.

For more information

For more details on the data sources, methods, assumptions and scenarios behind these projections, please refer to the following report: “Projections of the Indigenous populations and households in Canada, 2016 to 2041: Overview of data sources, methods, assumptions and scenarios” in Demosim: Reports and Analytical Studies (Catalogue number 17200001).