Indigenous population in Canada – Projections to 2041

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Release date: October 6, 2021

Infographic: Indigenous population in Canada – Projections to 2041 — Description: Indigenous population in Canada – Projections to 2041

The population of Indigenous identity was estimated at 1.8 million in 2016. Depending on the projection scenario, it could reach between 2.5 million and 3.2 million in 2041.^{Note 1} The average annual growth rate would vary between 1.3% and 2.3% between 2016 and 2041.

Table 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Table 1. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Indigenous population, estimated (2016) and projected (2021 to 2041) (appearing as column headers).
Year Indigenous population, estimated (2016) and projected (2021 to 2041)

2016 1,800,000

2021 Between 1,942,000 and 2,128,000

2026 Between 2,074,000 and 2,436,000

2031 Between 2,211,000 and 2,721,000

2036 Between 2,351,000 and 2,970,000

2041 Between 2,495,000 and 3,182,000

The median age of the Indigenous identity population is projected to be between 38.2 and 38.4 years in 2041, up from 29.1 years in 2016. In comparison, the median age of the non-Indigenous population is projected to increase from 41.4 to 44.7 years over the same period.^{Note 1}

In 2041, the total Indigenous population would include 1.5 million to 1.8 million First Nations people, 0.9 million to 1.2 million Métis and 92,000 to 101,000 Inuit.

Table 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Table 2. The information is grouped by Indigenous identity group (appearing as row headers), Projected population in 2041 (appearing as column headers).
Indigenous identity group Projected population in 2041

Total – Indigenous identity population^{Note 2} Between 2,495,000 and 3,182,000

First Nations people Between 1,459,000 and 1,786,000

Métis Between 883,000 and 1,152,000

Inuit Between 92,000 and 101,000

In 2041, the Indigenous population could represent 5.4% to 6.8% of the Canadian population. In 2016, this proportion was 5.0%.

Table 3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Table 3. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Proportion of Indigenous people in the total population (appearing as column headers).
Region Proportion of Indigenous people in the total population

Estimated in 2016 Projected in 2041 Change between 2016 and 2041

Canada 5.0% Between 5.4% and 6.8% Increase

Atlantic provinces 5.6% Between 7.3% and 10.4% Increase

Quebec 2.4% Between 2.8% and 4.0% Increase

Ontario 2.9% Between 3.1% and 4.1% Increase

Manitoba 18.3% Between 19.3% and 22.5% Increase

Saskatchewan 16.6% Between 16.5% and 19.0% Increase or decrease depending on the scenario

Alberta 6.7% Between 6.4% and 7.8% Increase or decrease depending on the scenario

British Columbia 6.0% Between 6.6% and 8.3% Increase

Yukon 23.4% Between 20.4% and 22.4% Decrease

Northwest Territories 50.6% Between 46.0% and 48.7% Decrease

Nunavut 85.7% Between 87.3% and 88.5% Increase

**Source:** Statistics Canada, Centre for Demography, Demosim 2021.

Notes

Footnote 1.

The range of results presented comes from the results of the three projection scenarios developed: the low-, medium- and high-growth scenarios for Indigenous populations. For the non-Indigenous population, only a medium-growth scenario is used.

Return to note 1 referrer

Footnote 2.

The total Indigenous identity population also includes people who self-identify to at least two Indigenous groups, and people who do not self-identify to an Indigenous group but reported being Registered or Treaty Indians or members of a First Nation or Indian band.

Return to note 2 referrer

Table 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Table 1. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Indigenous population, estimated (2016) and projected (2021 to 2041) (appearing as column headers).
Year	Indigenous population, estimated (2016) and projected (2021 to 2041)
2016	1,800,000
2021	Between 1,942,000 and 2,128,000
2026	Between 2,074,000 and 2,436,000
2031	Between 2,211,000 and 2,721,000
2036	Between 2,351,000 and 2,970,000
2041	Between 2,495,000 and 3,182,000

Table 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Table 2. The information is grouped by Indigenous identity group (appearing as row headers), Projected population in 2041 (appearing as column headers).
Indigenous identity group	Projected population in 2041
Total – Indigenous identity population^{Note 2}	Between 2,495,000 and 3,182,000
First Nations people	Between 1,459,000 and 1,786,000
Métis	Between 883,000 and 1,152,000
Inuit	Between 92,000 and 101,000

Table 3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Table 3. The information is grouped by Region (appearing as row headers), Proportion of Indigenous people in the total population (appearing as column headers).
Region	Proportion of Indigenous people in the total population
Estimated in 2016	Projected in 2041	Change between 2016 and 2041
Canada	5.0%	Between 5.4% and 6.8%	Increase
Atlantic provinces	5.6%	Between 7.3% and 10.4%	Increase
Quebec	2.4%	Between 2.8% and 4.0%	Increase
Ontario	2.9%	Between 3.1% and 4.1%	Increase
Manitoba	18.3%	Between 19.3% and 22.5%	Increase
Saskatchewan	16.6%	Between 16.5% and 19.0%	Increase or decrease depending on the scenario
Alberta	6.7%	Between 6.4% and 7.8%	Increase or decrease depending on the scenario
British Columbia	6.0%	Between 6.6% and 8.3%	Increase
Yukon	23.4%	Between 20.4% and 22.4%	Decrease
Northwest Territories	50.6%	Between 46.0% and 48.7%	Decrease
Nunavut	85.7%	Between 87.3% and 88.5%	Increase

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Indigenous population in Canada – Projections to 2041

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Indigenous population in Canada – Projections to 2041

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