First Nations people in Canada – Projections to 2041
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Description: First Nations people in Canada – Projections to 2041
The First Nations population was estimated at 1.1 million in 2016. Depending on the projection scenario, it could reach between 1.5 million and 1.8 million in 2041.Note 1 The average annual growth rate would vary between 1.2% and 2.1% between 2016 and 2041.
| Year | First Nations population, estimated (2016) and projected (2021 to 2041) |
|---|---|
| 2016 | 1,072,000 |
| 2021 | Between 1,154,000 and 1,244,000 |
| 2026 | Between 1,228,000 and 1,396,000 |
| 2031 | Between 1,304,000 and 1,538,000 |
| 2036 | Between 1,381,000 and 1,669,000 |
| 2041 | Between 1,459,000 and 1,786,000 |
The median age of the First Nations population is projected to be between 36.0 and 36.5 years in 2041, up from 27.2 years in 2016. In comparison, the median age of the non-Indigenous population is projected to increase from 41.4 to 44.7 years over the same period.Note 1
Proportion of First Nations people within the total Indigenous population
In 2016, the First Nations population represented 59.5% of the Indigenous population. This proportion is projected to decrease slightly to between 56.1% and 58.5% in 2041.
Proportion of First Nations people with Registered or Treaty Indian status
In 2016, 77.4% of the First Nations population had Registered or Treaty Indian status. This proportion would decrease to between 67.3% and 70.3% in 2041.
By 2041, the First Nations population would increase in all Canadian provinces and regions.
| Region | First Nations population | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Estimated in 2016 | Projected in 2041 | Change between 2016 and 2041 | |
| Atlantic provinces | 76,000 | Between 96,000 and 130,000 | Increase |
| Quebec | 105,000 | Between 138,000 and 178,000 | Increase |
| Ontario | 262,000 | Between 358,000 and 449,000 | Increase |
| Manitoba | 143,000 | Between 200,000 and 233,000 | Increase |
| Saskatchewan | 124,000 | Between 174,000 and 199,000 | Increase |
| Alberta | 152,000 | Between 224,000 and 272,000 | Increase |
| British Columbia | 187,000 | Between 249,000 and 301,000 | Increase |
| Territories | 22,000 | Between 22,000 and 24,000 | Increase |
Source: Statistics Canada, Centre for Demography, Demosim 2021.
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