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- 1. The Effect of Rebasing on GDP ArchivedSurveys and statistical programs – Documentation: 13-604-M1996035Description:
About once every five years, the System of National Accounts (SNA) is rebased to keep up with the evolution of prices in the economy. In other words, its aggregates at constant prices are recalculated in terms of the prices of a more recent time. Also, the System is revamped about once a decade to introduce new accounting conventions, improved methods of estimation and revised statistical classifications. These revisions will change the gross domestic product (GDP) of the past 70 years. Both types of revision are presently underway, with their results scheduled for release next year.
This article takes an advance look at the likely effect of rebasing the SNA on the record of growth since 1992. It presents the results of an approximate rebasing of the expenditure-based GDP of the quarterly National Income and Expenditure Accounts (NIEA).
Release date: 1996-08-30 - Articles and reports: 91F0015M1996001Geography: CanadaDescription:
This paper describes the methodology for fertility projections used in the 1993-based population projections by age and sex for Canada, provinces and territories, 1993-2016. A new version of the parametric model known as the Pearsonian Type III curve was applied for projecting fertility age pattern. The Pearsonian Type III model is considered as an improvement over the Type I used in the past projections. This is because the Type III curve better portrays both the distribution of the age-specific fertility rates and the estimates of births. Since the 1993-based population projections are the first official projections to incorporate the net census undercoverage in the population base, it has been necessary to recalculate fertility rates based on the adjusted population estimates. This recalculation resulted in lowering the historical series of age-specific and total fertility rates, 1971-1993. The three sets of fertility assumptions and projections were developed with these adjusted annual fertility rates.
It is hoped that this paper will provide valuable information about the technical and analytical aspects of the current fertility projection model. Discussions on the current and future levels and age pattern of fertility in Canada, provinces and territories are also presented in the paper.
Release date: 1996-08-02 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X199600114381Description:
Problems arising from statistical disclosure control, which aims to prevent that information about individual respondents is disclosed by users of data, have come to the fore rapidly in recent years. The main reason for this is the growing demand for detailed data provided by statistical offices caused by the still increasing use of computers. In former days tables with relatively little information were published. Nowadays the users of data demand much more detailed tables and, moreover, microdata to analyze by themselves. Because of this increase in information content statistical disclosure control has become much more difficult. In this paper the authors give their view on the problems which one encounters when trying to protect microdata against disclosure. This view is based on their experience with statistical disclosure control acquired at Statistics Netherlands.
Release date: 1996-06-14 - 4. A moving stratification algorithm ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X199600114382Description:
A general algorithm with equal probabilities is presented. The author provides the second order inclusion probabilities that correspond to the algorithm, which generalizes the selection-rejection method, so that a sample may be drawn using simple random sampling without replacement. Another particular case of the algorithm, called moving stratification algorithm, is discussed. A smooth stratification effect can be obtained by using, as a stratification variable, the serial number of the observation units. The author provides approximations of first and second order inclusion probabilities. These approximations lead to a population mean estimator and to an estimator of the variance of this mean estimator. The algorithm is then compared to a classical stratified plan with proportional allocation.
Release date: 1996-06-14 - 5. A new method to reduce unwanted ripples and revisions in trend-cycle estimates from X-11-ARIMA ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X199600114383Description:
The estimation of the trend-cycle with the X-11-ARIMA method is often done using the 13-term Henderson filter applied to seasonally adjusted data modified by extreme values. This filter however, produces a large number of unwanted ripples in the final or “historical” trend-cycle curve which are interpreted as false turning points. The use of a longer Henderson filter such as the 23-term is not an alternative for this filter is sluggish to detect turning points and consequently is not useful for current economic and business analysis. This paper proposes a new method that enables the use of the 13-term Henderson filter with the advantages of: (i) reducing the number of unwanted ripples; (ii) reducing the size of the revisions to preliminary values and (iii) no increase in the time lag to detect turning points. The results are illustrated with nine leading indicator series of the Canadian Composite Leading Index.
Release date: 1996-06-14 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X199600114384Description:
The Lavallée-Hidiroglou (L-H) method of finding stratification boundaries has been used in the Census Bureau’s Annual Capital Expenditures Survey (ACES) to stratify part of its universe in the pilot study and the subsequent preliminary survey. This iterative method minimizes the sample size while fixing the desired reliability level by constructing appropriate boundary points. However, we encountered two problems in our application. One problem was that different starting boundaries resulted in different ending boundaries. The other problem was that the convergence to locally-optimal boundaries was slow, i.e., the number of iterations was large and convergence was not guaranteed. This paper addresses our difficulties with the L-H method and shows how they were resolved so that this procedure would work well for the ACES. In particular, we describe how contour plots were constructed and used to help illustrate how insignificant these problems were once the L-H method was applied. This paper describes revisions made to the L-H method; revisions that made it a practical method of finding stratification boundaries for ACES.
Release date: 1996-06-14 - 7. Multiple sample estimation of population and census undercount in the presence of matching errors ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X199600114385Description:
The multiple capture-recapture census is reconsidered by relaxing the traditional perfect matching assumption. We propose matching error models to characterize error-prone matching mechanisms. The observed data take the form of an incomplete 2^k contingency table with one missing cell and follow a multinomial distribution. We develop a procedure for the estimation of the population size. Our approach applies to both standard log-linear models for contingency tables and log-linear models for heterogeneity of catchability. We illustrate the method and estimation using a 1988 dress rehearsal study for the 1990 census conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Release date: 1996-06-14 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X199600114386Description:
In some surveys, many auxiliary variables are available for respondents and nonrespondents for use in nonresponse adjustment. One decision that arises is how to select which of the auxiliary variables should be used for this purpose and another decision involves how the selected variables should be used. Several approaches to forming weighting adjustments for nonresponse are considered in this research. The methods include those based on logistic regression models, categorical search algorithms, and generalized raking. These methods are applied to adjust for panel nonresponse in the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). The estimates from the alternative adjustments are assessed by comparing them to one another and to benchmark estimates from other sources.
Release date: 1996-06-14 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X199600114387Description:
In this paper, we consider analysis of variance methodology for inverse Gaussian distribution and adapt it for estimation of small area parameters in finite populations. It is demonstrated, through a Monte Carlo study, that these estimators offer a competitive choice for positively skewed survey data such as income or yield of a particular sector.
Release date: 1996-06-14 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X199600114388Description:
Variance estimation for the poststratified estimator and the generalized regression estimator of a total under stratified multi-stage sampling is considered. By linearizing the jackknife variance estimator, a jackknife linearization variance estimator is obtained which is different from the standard linearization variance estimator. This variance estimator is computationally simpler than the jackknife variance estimator and yet leads to values close to the jackknife. Properties of the jackknife linearization variance estimator, the standard linearized variance estimator, and the jackknife variance estimator are studied through a simulation study. All of the variance estimators performed well both unconditionally and conditionally given a measure of how far away the estimated totals of auxiliary variables are from the known population totals. A jackknife variance estimator based on incorrect reweighting performed poorly, indicating the importance of correct reweighting when using the jackknife method.
Release date: 1996-06-14
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- Articles and reports: 91F0015M1996001Geography: CanadaDescription:
This paper describes the methodology for fertility projections used in the 1993-based population projections by age and sex for Canada, provinces and territories, 1993-2016. A new version of the parametric model known as the Pearsonian Type III curve was applied for projecting fertility age pattern. The Pearsonian Type III model is considered as an improvement over the Type I used in the past projections. This is because the Type III curve better portrays both the distribution of the age-specific fertility rates and the estimates of births. Since the 1993-based population projections are the first official projections to incorporate the net census undercoverage in the population base, it has been necessary to recalculate fertility rates based on the adjusted population estimates. This recalculation resulted in lowering the historical series of age-specific and total fertility rates, 1971-1993. The three sets of fertility assumptions and projections were developed with these adjusted annual fertility rates.
It is hoped that this paper will provide valuable information about the technical and analytical aspects of the current fertility projection model. Discussions on the current and future levels and age pattern of fertility in Canada, provinces and territories are also presented in the paper.
Release date: 1996-08-02 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X199600114381Description:
Problems arising from statistical disclosure control, which aims to prevent that information about individual respondents is disclosed by users of data, have come to the fore rapidly in recent years. The main reason for this is the growing demand for detailed data provided by statistical offices caused by the still increasing use of computers. In former days tables with relatively little information were published. Nowadays the users of data demand much more detailed tables and, moreover, microdata to analyze by themselves. Because of this increase in information content statistical disclosure control has become much more difficult. In this paper the authors give their view on the problems which one encounters when trying to protect microdata against disclosure. This view is based on their experience with statistical disclosure control acquired at Statistics Netherlands.
Release date: 1996-06-14 - 3. A moving stratification algorithm ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X199600114382Description:
A general algorithm with equal probabilities is presented. The author provides the second order inclusion probabilities that correspond to the algorithm, which generalizes the selection-rejection method, so that a sample may be drawn using simple random sampling without replacement. Another particular case of the algorithm, called moving stratification algorithm, is discussed. A smooth stratification effect can be obtained by using, as a stratification variable, the serial number of the observation units. The author provides approximations of first and second order inclusion probabilities. These approximations lead to a population mean estimator and to an estimator of the variance of this mean estimator. The algorithm is then compared to a classical stratified plan with proportional allocation.
Release date: 1996-06-14 - 4. A new method to reduce unwanted ripples and revisions in trend-cycle estimates from X-11-ARIMA ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X199600114383Description:
The estimation of the trend-cycle with the X-11-ARIMA method is often done using the 13-term Henderson filter applied to seasonally adjusted data modified by extreme values. This filter however, produces a large number of unwanted ripples in the final or “historical” trend-cycle curve which are interpreted as false turning points. The use of a longer Henderson filter such as the 23-term is not an alternative for this filter is sluggish to detect turning points and consequently is not useful for current economic and business analysis. This paper proposes a new method that enables the use of the 13-term Henderson filter with the advantages of: (i) reducing the number of unwanted ripples; (ii) reducing the size of the revisions to preliminary values and (iii) no increase in the time lag to detect turning points. The results are illustrated with nine leading indicator series of the Canadian Composite Leading Index.
Release date: 1996-06-14 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X199600114384Description:
The Lavallée-Hidiroglou (L-H) method of finding stratification boundaries has been used in the Census Bureau’s Annual Capital Expenditures Survey (ACES) to stratify part of its universe in the pilot study and the subsequent preliminary survey. This iterative method minimizes the sample size while fixing the desired reliability level by constructing appropriate boundary points. However, we encountered two problems in our application. One problem was that different starting boundaries resulted in different ending boundaries. The other problem was that the convergence to locally-optimal boundaries was slow, i.e., the number of iterations was large and convergence was not guaranteed. This paper addresses our difficulties with the L-H method and shows how they were resolved so that this procedure would work well for the ACES. In particular, we describe how contour plots were constructed and used to help illustrate how insignificant these problems were once the L-H method was applied. This paper describes revisions made to the L-H method; revisions that made it a practical method of finding stratification boundaries for ACES.
Release date: 1996-06-14 - 6. Multiple sample estimation of population and census undercount in the presence of matching errors ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X199600114385Description:
The multiple capture-recapture census is reconsidered by relaxing the traditional perfect matching assumption. We propose matching error models to characterize error-prone matching mechanisms. The observed data take the form of an incomplete 2^k contingency table with one missing cell and follow a multinomial distribution. We develop a procedure for the estimation of the population size. Our approach applies to both standard log-linear models for contingency tables and log-linear models for heterogeneity of catchability. We illustrate the method and estimation using a 1988 dress rehearsal study for the 1990 census conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census.
Release date: 1996-06-14 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X199600114386Description:
In some surveys, many auxiliary variables are available for respondents and nonrespondents for use in nonresponse adjustment. One decision that arises is how to select which of the auxiliary variables should be used for this purpose and another decision involves how the selected variables should be used. Several approaches to forming weighting adjustments for nonresponse are considered in this research. The methods include those based on logistic regression models, categorical search algorithms, and generalized raking. These methods are applied to adjust for panel nonresponse in the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). The estimates from the alternative adjustments are assessed by comparing them to one another and to benchmark estimates from other sources.
Release date: 1996-06-14 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X199600114387Description:
In this paper, we consider analysis of variance methodology for inverse Gaussian distribution and adapt it for estimation of small area parameters in finite populations. It is demonstrated, through a Monte Carlo study, that these estimators offer a competitive choice for positively skewed survey data such as income or yield of a particular sector.
Release date: 1996-06-14 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X199600114388Description:
Variance estimation for the poststratified estimator and the generalized regression estimator of a total under stratified multi-stage sampling is considered. By linearizing the jackknife variance estimator, a jackknife linearization variance estimator is obtained which is different from the standard linearization variance estimator. This variance estimator is computationally simpler than the jackknife variance estimator and yet leads to values close to the jackknife. Properties of the jackknife linearization variance estimator, the standard linearized variance estimator, and the jackknife variance estimator are studied through a simulation study. All of the variance estimators performed well both unconditionally and conditionally given a measure of how far away the estimated totals of auxiliary variables are from the known population totals. A jackknife variance estimator based on incorrect reweighting performed poorly, indicating the importance of correct reweighting when using the jackknife method.
Release date: 1996-06-14 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X199600114389Description:
There are a number of asymptotically equivalent procedures for deriving the Taylor series approximation of variances for complex statistics. In Binder and Patak (1994) the theoretical justification for one class of methods was derived. However, many of these methods can be derived for practical examples using straightforward techniques that are not clearly described in Binder and Patak. In this paper we give a “cookbook” approach that can be used for many examples, and that has been shown to have good finite sample properties. Normally the method of choice becomes clear through arguments such as model-assisted methods or linearizing the jackknife; however, using our approach yields the desired results more directly. As well, we present new results on the application of these techniques to two-phase samples.
Release date: 1996-06-14
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- 1. The Effect of Rebasing on GDP ArchivedSurveys and statistical programs – Documentation: 13-604-M1996035Description:
About once every five years, the System of National Accounts (SNA) is rebased to keep up with the evolution of prices in the economy. In other words, its aggregates at constant prices are recalculated in terms of the prices of a more recent time. Also, the System is revamped about once a decade to introduce new accounting conventions, improved methods of estimation and revised statistical classifications. These revisions will change the gross domestic product (GDP) of the past 70 years. Both types of revision are presently underway, with their results scheduled for release next year.
This article takes an advance look at the likely effect of rebasing the SNA on the record of growth since 1992. It presents the results of an approximate rebasing of the expenditure-based GDP of the quarterly National Income and Expenditure Accounts (NIEA).
Release date: 1996-08-30
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