Population Projections for Canada (2018 to 2068), Provinces and Territories (2018 to 2043)

Statistics Canada has been publishing demographic projections for Canada, the provinces and the territories approximately every five years, following the census cycle, for more than 45 years. This edition of the Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories maintains the tradition of providing users with detailed results by age and sex for all Canadian provinces and territories. The results are based on the latest population estimates and on assumptions that reflect past demographic trends and the opinions of demography experts.

The Canadian population appears to be stable in many respects: life expectancy is gradually increasing, fertility has been hovering around 1.5 to 1.7 children per woman for the last 40 years, and the annual immigration rate has averaged about 7.5 per thousand since 2000. However, the population is actually undergoing significant changes which are likely to have profound, lasting effects on Canadian society. The aging of the baby-boom cohort will have many repercussions as this cohort reaches the ages that generally separate working life from retirement. Sustained immigration paired with constant low fertility is leading to rapid diversification of the Canadian population. The number of non-permanent residents is growing, and access to permanent immigration is being made easier for them. In addition, the geographic distribution of the population is being transformed by the mobility of Canadians, as some provinces are attracting relatively large numbers of people from the other provinces. These changes are altering the country’s demographic composition and its distribution, and are therefore likely to have economic, political and social repercussions.

In this context, the population projections are highly relevant and useful, in that they provide an opportunity to think about changes that the country will probably experience in the future. The starting point for this edition of Population Projections for Canada, Provinces and Territories is the July 1, 2018 population estimates. The projections cover a 25-year period (up to 2043) for the provinces and territories, and a 50-year period (up to 2068) for Canada as a whole.

This report is divided into four sections. Section 1 summarizes the projection assumptions and scenarios. The second section contains the analysis of the results for Canada. Section 3 presents the results for the provinces and territories including a dedicated summary for each. The conclusion of the report is presented in the fourth section.

While this report summarizes the key results of the projections, readers are encouraged to consult a separate report, entitled Population Projections for Canada (2018 to 2068), Provinces and Territories (2018 to 2043): Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions (Statistics Canada catalogue no. 91-620-X) which contains: a detailed analysis of recent trends in the individual components of population growth; a summary of the views of experts regarding the plausible future evolution of these components; and a description of projection assumptions and methodology for each component of growth.