Section 3 – Results at the provincial and territorial levels, 2018 to 2043
Northwest Territories
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- The population of the Northwest Territories is projected to number between 43,900 (scenario M3) and 53,200 (scenario HG) by 2043. The territory counted 44,500 inhabitants in 2018.
- Positive population growth in the territory is propelled entirely by international migratory increases and positive natural increase over the next 25 years.
- The Northwest Territories is projected to sustain losses in interprovincial migration in all scenarios, remaining consistent with historical trends. In a situation of significant losses, the population of the Northwest Territories could decline, as suggested by scenario M3.
- According to all projection scenarios, the Northwest Territories would remain the second-youngest population in Canada, after Nunavut. Nevertheless, over the next 25 years, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over would increase from 7.9% in 2018 to between 13.8% (scenario SA) and 17.0% (scenario FA) in 2043. From 34.8 years in 2018, the median age is projected to range between 35.3 years (scenario SA) and 39.0 years (scenario M5) in 2043, levels that would remain well below the projected Canadian average.
Description for Figure 3.23
| Year | Historic | Projected | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low-growth scenario (LG) | Medium-growth scenarios | High-growth scenario (HG) | ||||
| M1 | M3 | M5 | ||||
| in thousands | ||||||
| 1994 | 40.6 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 1995 | 41.4 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 1996 | 41.7 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 1997 | 41.6 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 1998 | 40.8 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 1999 | 40.6 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2000 | 40.5 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2001 | 40.8 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2002 | 41.7 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2003 | 42.6 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2004 | 43.3 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2005 | 43.4 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2006 | 43.2 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2007 | 43.4 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2008 | 43.4 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2009 | 43.2 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2010 | 43.3 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2011 | 43.5 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2012 | 43.6 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2013 | 43.8 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2014 | 43.9 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2015 | 44.2 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2016 | 44.6 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2017 | 44.9 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2018 | 44.5 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2019 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 44.8 | 44.8 | 44.6 | 45.0 | 44.9 |
| 2020 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.0 | 45.1 | 44.7 | 45.4 | 45.2 |
| 2021 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.1 | 45.3 | 44.8 | 45.8 | 45.5 |
| 2022 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.3 | 45.6 | 44.9 | 46.2 | 45.9 |
| 2023 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.5 | 45.9 | 44.9 | 46.6 | 46.3 |
| 2024 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.6 | 46.1 | 45.0 | 47.0 | 46.6 |
| 2025 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.7 | 46.4 | 45.1 | 47.4 | 47.0 |
| 2026 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.8 | 46.6 | 45.1 | 47.8 | 47.4 |
| 2027 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.9 | 46.8 | 45.2 | 48.1 | 47.8 |
| 2028 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.9 | 47.0 | 45.2 | 48.5 | 48.2 |
| 2029 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.9 | 47.2 | 45.2 | 48.8 | 48.6 |
| 2030 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 46.0 | 47.4 | 45.2 | 49.2 | 48.9 |
| 2031 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.9 | 47.6 | 45.2 | 49.5 | 49.3 |
| 2032 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.9 | 47.8 | 45.1 | 49.8 | 49.7 |
| 2033 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.9 | 47.9 | 45.1 | 50.1 | 50.1 |
| 2034 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.8 | 48.1 | 45.1 | 50.4 | 50.4 |
| 2035 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.8 | 48.2 | 45.0 | 50.7 | 50.8 |
| 2036 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.7 | 48.3 | 44.9 | 51.0 | 51.1 |
| 2037 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.6 | 48.4 | 44.8 | 51.3 | 51.5 |
| 2038 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.5 | 48.5 | 44.7 | 51.5 | 51.8 |
| 2039 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.3 | 48.5 | 44.6 | 51.8 | 52.1 |
| 2040 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.2 | 48.6 | 44.4 | 52.0 | 52.4 |
| 2041 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.0 | 48.6 | 44.3 | 52.2 | 52.7 |
| 2042 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 44.8 | 48.6 | 44.1 | 52.4 | 52.9 |
| 2043 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 44.7 | 48.6 | 43.9 | 52.6 | 53.2 |
|
.. not available for a specific reference period Source : Statistics Canada, Demography Division. |
||||||
| Scenario / Period | Total growth | Natural increase | Net international migration | Net interprovincial migration | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Births | Deaths | Total | Immigration | Net emigration | Net non-permanent residents | Total | In- migration |
Out-migration | ||
| crude rate per thousand | |||||||||||
| Historic | |||||||||||
| 1997/1998 | -17.4 | 13.1 | 16.4 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.7 | -31.6 | 57.6 | 89.2 |
| 2017/2018 | -8.8 | 8.5 | 14.1 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 5.7 | 1.0 | -1.7 | -20.3 | 36.7 | 57.0 |
| Projected | |||||||||||
| Low-growth scenario (LG) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 3.3 | 6.3 | 12.2 | 5.9 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 0.8 | 0.0 | -10.5 | 51.6 | 62.0 |
| 2032/2033 | -0.8 | 4.2 | 11.6 | 7.4 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -11.4 | 50.6 | 62.0 |
| 2042/2043 | -4.4 | 3.3 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | -12.0 | 50.9 | 62.9 |
| Medium-growth scenario (M1) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 5.7 | 7.5 | 13.1 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -10.6 | 51.6 | 62.1 |
| 2032/2033 | 3.2 | 6.4 | 12.9 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -11.3 | 50.6 | 62.0 |
| 2042/2043 | -0.1 | 5.8 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 5.9 | 6.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -11.7 | 51.1 | 62.8 |
| Medium-growth scenario (M2) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 2.5 | 7.5 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 8.8 | 9.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -13.8 | 51.9 | 65.6 |
| 2032/2033 | 0.2 | 6.1 | 12.8 | 6.8 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -14.4 | 50.8 | 65.3 |
| 2042/2043 | -3.2 | 5.2 | 13.3 | 8.2 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | -14.8 | 51.3 | 66.1 |
| Medium-growth scenario (M3) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 1.7 | 7.4 | 13.0 | 5.6 | 8.9 | 9.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -14.6 | 48.3 | 62.9 |
| 2032/2033 | -0.9 | 5.9 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 9.2 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -15.5 | 47.3 | 62.8 |
| 2042/2043 | -4.4 | 4.9 | 13.3 | 8.5 | 6.5 | 7.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | -15.8 | 47.7 | 63.5 |
| Medium-growth scenario (M4) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 13.1 | 5.6 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -9.6 | 40.6 | 50.3 |
| 2032/2033 | 4.3 | 6.2 | 12.9 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 8.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -10.0 | 39.6 | 49.5 |
| 2042/2043 | 1.3 | 5.4 | 13.2 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 6.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -9.8 | 39.7 | 49.5 |
| Medium-growth scenario (M5) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 8.8 | 7.3 | 12.9 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 9.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -7.2 | 39.7 | 46.9 |
| 2032/2033 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 12.5 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 8.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -7.7 | 38.4 | 46.0 |
| 2042/2043 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 12.8 | 7.5 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -7.2 | 38.3 | 45.5 |
| High-growth scenario (HG) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 14.0 | 5.2 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | -10.7 | 51.4 | 62.1 |
| 2032/2033 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 14.2 | 5.8 | 10.3 | 10.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | -11.3 | 50.5 | 61.8 |
| 2042/2043 | 4.8 | 8.1 | 15.0 | 6.8 | 8.1 | 8.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | -11.4 | 51.3 | 62.7 |
| Slow-aging scenario (SA) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 7.4 | 8.1 | 14.0 | 5.9 | 9.9 | 10.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | -10.6 | 51.5 | 62.1 |
| 2032/2033 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 14.4 | 7.0 | 10.3 | 10.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | -11.2 | 51.0 | 62.3 |
| 2042/2043 | 4.0 | 7.4 | 15.2 | 7.8 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | -11.4 | 52.2 | 63.6 |
| Fast-aging scenario (FA) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 3.9 | 6.9 | 12.2 | 5.3 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 0.8 | 0.0 | -10.5 | 51.5 | 62.0 |
| 2032/2033 | 0.4 | 5.4 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 6.4 | 7.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | -11.5 | 50.1 | 61.5 |
| 2042/2043 | -3.6 | 4.1 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 4.4 | 5.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | -12.0 | 49.9 | 61.9 |
|
Notes: Crude rates are calculated over the total population and expressed per thousand persons in the total population at midyear. Crude rates are significantly affected by the age structure of the population. For example, most countries will eventually experience an increase in the crude death rate in the coming decades due to the aging of the population, in spite of continued declines in mortality at all ages. The crude rate of natural increase and the crude rate of net migration sum to the crude growth rate. The crude rate of natural increase equals the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate. The crude rate of net migration equals the crude rate of immigration minus the crude rate of net emigration plus the crude rate of net non-permanent resident migration. Net emigration is the balance of emigrants, minus returning emigrants, plus net temporary emigrants. The rate of net interprovincial migration equals the crude rate of interprovincial in-migration minus the crude rate of interprovincial out-migration. Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division. |
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Description for Figure 3.24
This figure shows four overlapping population pyramids showing the age and sex structures of the 2018 and 2043 Northwest Territories populations according to three scenarios. In 2018, the pyramid is represented by a solid grey colour, while the 2043 pyramids are represented by purple, blue and orange lines, each corresponding respectively to the slow-aging scenario (SA), the medium-growth scenario (M1) and the fast-aging scenario (FA). The counts by age and sex are expressed in relative values (per thousand) in relation to the total population.
The y-axis is in the middle of the figure, separating the pyramids in two and showing the ages from 0 to 100 years. Males are shown on the left side of the axis, and females are shown on the right side.
The x-axis shows the proportion of persons for each age, expressed per thousand, from 0 to 11, and this is the same for the left-handed and right-handed sides of the y-axis.
The shape of the 2018 population age pyramid is diverging from the typical pyramid shape. It has a base that more or less rectangular between ages 0 and 55with a pointed apex between ages 55 and 100. The lines representing the age and sex structure of the 2043 population according to three scenarios form pyramids with a higher peak than 2018. The 2043 pyramids show that the proportion of the older population will grow compared to the younger ages in the coming decades, a consequence of the aging population structure projected.
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