Population Projections for Canada (2018 to 2068), Provinces and Territories (2018 to 2043): Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions

Release date: September 17, 2019


This report describes the methodology used to calculate the projection parameters and develop the various projection assumptions for the Population Projections for Canada (2018 to 2068), Provinces and Territories (2018 to 2043).

Following the inaugural edition of this technical report, this edition provides a detailed analysis of each the components of population growth as well as a description of the methodology and assumptions for each component. In particular, Chapter 1 details a new, general approach to assumption building which was utilized for the majority of the projection components. This revised general approach was motivated largely by improvements to the expert elicitation process which informed these projections, described in Chapter 2. Subsequent chapters 3 through 8 cover the various components of population growth, one by one, in the following order: fertility, mortality, immigration, emigration, non-permanent residents and interprovincial migration.

For a detailed description of the mechanics of the cohort-component population projection model, readers are encouraged to consult Chapter 1 of the technical report accompanying the 2013-based projections.Note 

The main report, containing the projection results (Statistics Canada catalogue no. 91-520-x), includes a summary of the projection assumptions and scenarios.

The results are described and analyzed in the analytical report: Population Projections for Canada (2018 to 2068), Provinces and Territories (2018 to 2043) (Statistics Canada catalogue no. 91-520).

Results can be obtained in the following tables:

Table 17-10-0057-01: projected population, by age, sex and province/territory.

Table 17-10-0058-01: components of projected population growth.


Chapter 1: General Approach to Assumption Building
Chapter 2: 2018 Survey of Experts on Future Demographic Trends
Chapter 3: Projection of Fertility
Chapter 4: Projection of Mortality
Chapter 5: Projection of Immigration
Chapter 6: Projection of Emigration
Chapter 7: Projection of Non-Permanent Residents
Chapter 8: Projection of Interprovincial Migration

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