Section 3 – Results at the provincial and territorial levels, 2018 to 2043
Nunavut
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- In all projection scenarios, Nunavut experiences an annual growth rate that is positive over the next 25 years. From 38,400 in 2018, the population of Nunavut would increase to between 47,100 (scenario LG) and 54,000 (scenario M4) in 2043.
- Fertility is the key driver of population growth in Nunavut, as its population would continue to increase despite losses in migration exchanges with the rest of Canada and almost no gains from international migration. All scenarios indicate strongly positive natural increase for the territory, a result of the fact that Nunavut would continue to hold the highest fertility rates in the country while also having a young age structure.
- The population of Nunavut is projected to remain the youngest in Canada in all scenarios. The median age of the population of Nunavut could in fact decrease over the next 25 years, according to scenarios HG and SA. The projected median age ranges between 25.6 years (scenario SA) and 28.7 years (scenario M5) in 2043, in comparison to 26.1 years in 2018.
- The proportion of persons aged 65 and over in Nunavut would more than double over the next 25 years according to all projection scenarios, from 3.9% in 2018 to between 8.4% (scenarios M4, M5 and HG) and 9.4% (scenario FA) in 2043. It would nevertheless remain by far the youngest population in the country.
Description for Figure 3.25
| Year | Historic | Projected | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low-growth scenario (LG) | Medium-growth scenarios | High-growth scenario (HG) | ||||
| M1 | M3 | M4 | ||||
| in thousands | ||||||
| 1994 | 24.4 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 1995 | 25.0 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 1996 | 25.7 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 1997 | 25.9 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 1998 | 26.4 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 1999 | 26.8 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2000 | 27.5 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2001 | 28.1 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2002 | 28.8 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2003 | 29.3 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2004 | 29.9 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2005 | 30.3 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2006 | 30.8 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2007 | 31.4 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2008 | 31.9 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2009 | 32.6 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2010 | 33.4 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2011 | 34.2 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2012 | 34.7 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2013 | 35.3 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2014 | 36.0 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2015 | 36.5 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2016 | 37.0 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2017 | 37.6 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2018 | 38.4 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period |
| 2019 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 38.8 | 38.9 | 38.8 | 39.0 | 38.9 |
| 2020 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 39.2 | 39.3 | 39.2 | 39.6 | 39.4 |
| 2021 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 39.7 | 39.8 | 39.6 | 40.2 | 39.9 |
| 2022 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 40.0 | 40.2 | 40.1 | 40.8 | 40.4 |
| 2023 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 40.4 | 40.7 | 40.5 | 41.4 | 41.0 |
| 2024 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 40.8 | 41.2 | 40.9 | 42.0 | 41.5 |
| 2025 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 41.2 | 41.6 | 41.3 | 42.6 | 42.0 |
| 2026 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 41.5 | 42.1 | 41.6 | 43.2 | 42.6 |
| 2027 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 41.9 | 42.5 | 42.0 | 43.8 | 43.2 |
| 2028 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 42.2 | 43.0 | 42.5 | 44.4 | 43.7 |
| 2029 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 42.6 | 43.4 | 42.9 | 44.9 | 44.3 |
| 2030 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 42.9 | 43.9 | 43.3 | 45.6 | 44.9 |
| 2031 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 43.3 | 44.4 | 43.7 | 46.2 | 45.5 |
| 2032 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 43.6 | 44.9 | 44.1 | 46.8 | 46.2 |
| 2033 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 43.9 | 45.4 | 44.6 | 47.4 | 46.8 |
| 2034 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 44.3 | 45.9 | 45.0 | 48.1 | 47.4 |
| 2035 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 44.6 | 46.4 | 45.4 | 48.7 | 48.1 |
| 2036 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.0 | 46.8 | 45.9 | 49.4 | 48.7 |
| 2037 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.3 | 47.3 | 46.3 | 50.0 | 49.4 |
| 2038 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.6 | 47.8 | 46.7 | 50.7 | 50.1 |
| 2039 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 45.9 | 48.3 | 47.1 | 51.3 | 50.7 |
| 2040 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 46.2 | 48.8 | 47.6 | 52.0 | 51.4 |
| 2041 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 46.6 | 49.3 | 48.0 | 52.6 | 52.1 |
| 2042 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 46.8 | 49.8 | 48.4 | 53.3 | 52.9 |
| 2043 | Note ..: not available for a specific reference period | 47.1 | 50.3 | 48.9 | 54.0 | 53.6 |
|
.. not available for a specific reference period Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division. |
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| Scenario / Period | Total growth | Natural increase | Net international migration | Net interprovincial migration | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Births | Deaths | Total | Immigration | Net emigration | Net non-permanent residents | Total | In- migration |
Out-migration | ||
| crude rate per thousand | |||||||||||
| Historic | |||||||||||
| 1997/1998 | 19.3 | 23.8 | 28.4 | 4.6 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.1 | -4.2 | 38.7 | 42.9 |
| 2017/2018 | 22.5 | 19.5 | 24.5 | 5.0 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 3.1 | 33.4 | 30.3 |
| Projected | |||||||||||
| Low-growth scenario (LG) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 9.5 | 17.0 | 21.9 | 4.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -7.6 | 26.6 | 34.3 |
| 2032/2033 | 7.9 | 16.5 | 22.1 | 5.6 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -8.6 | 25.0 | 33.6 |
| 2042/2043 | 6.2 | 15.4 | 21.3 | 5.9 | 0.0 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -9.2 | 24.3 | 33.6 |
| Medium-growth scenario (M1) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 11.3 | 18.7 | 23.3 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -7.7 | 26.6 | 34.3 |
| 2032/2033 | 10.9 | 19.0 | 24.0 | 5.0 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -8.5 | 24.9 | 33.4 |
| 2042/2043 | 10.0 | 18.5 | 23.6 | 5.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -8.8 | 24.2 | 33.0 |
| Medium-growth scenario (M2) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 10.8 | 18.5 | 23.2 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -8.1 | 27.4 | 35.5 |
| 2032/2033 | 10.7 | 18.8 | 24.0 | 5.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -8.5 | 25.4 | 33.9 |
| 2042/2043 | 9.9 | 18.1 | 23.6 | 5.5 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -8.6 | 24.4 | 33.0 |
| Medium-growth scenario (M3) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 10.1 | 18.3 | 23.0 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -8.5 | 24.5 | 33.1 |
| 2032/2033 | 9.8 | 18.3 | 23.7 | 5.4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -8.9 | 22.6 | 31.5 |
| 2042/2043 | 8.9 | 17.6 | 23.4 | 5.8 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -9.0 | 21.6 | 30.6 |
| Medium-growth scenario (M4) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 14.7 | 18.3 | 23.0 | 4.7 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -3.9 | 22.3 | 26.2 |
| 2032/2033 | 13.5 | 18.3 | 23.3 | 5.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -5.1 | 20.9 | 26.0 |
| 2042/2043 | 12.5 | 17.4 | 22.7 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -5.2 | 20.4 | 25.6 |
| Medium-growth scenario (M5) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 13.1 | 18.3 | 23.0 | 4.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -5.6 | 20.4 | 26.0 |
| 2032/2033 | 12.0 | 18.5 | 23.5 | 5.0 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -6.8 | 19.3 | 26.1 |
| 2042/2043 | 11.0 | 17.5 | 22.7 | 5.2 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -6.9 | 18.9 | 25.7 |
| High-growth scenario (HG) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 13.1 | 20.4 | 24.8 | 4.4 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -7.8 | 26.5 | 34.3 |
| 2032/2033 | 13.7 | 21.5 | 26.0 | 4.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -8.3 | 24.8 | 33.1 |
| 2042/2043 | 13.8 | 21.4 | 26.0 | 4.6 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -8.3 | 24.1 | 32.5 |
| Slow-aging scenario (SA) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 12.6 | 19.9 | 24.8 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -7.7 | 26.5 | 34.3 |
| 2032/2033 | 13.1 | 20.6 | 26.1 | 5.5 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -8.1 | 25.0 | 33.1 |
| 2042/2043 | 13.5 | 20.8 | 26.2 | 5.4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -8.0 | 24.5 | 32.5 |
| Fast-aging scenario (FA) | |||||||||||
| 2022/2023 | 9.9 | 17.4 | 21.8 | 4.4 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -7.7 | 26.6 | 34.3 |
| 2032/2033 | 8.6 | 17.3 | 22.0 | 4.7 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -8.9 | 24.7 | 33.6 |
| 2042/2043 | 6.5 | 16.1 | 21.1 | 5.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.0 | -9.6 | 23.9 | 33.5 |
|
Notes: Crude rates are calculated over the total population and expressed per thousand persons in the total population at midyear. Crude rates are significantly affected by the age structure of the population. For example, most countries will eventually experience an increase in the crude death rate in the coming decades due to the aging of the population, in spite of continued declines in mortality at all ages. The crude rate of natural increase and the crude rate of net migration sum to the crude growth rate. The crude rate of natural increase equals the crude birth rate minus the crude death rate. The crude rate of net migration equals the crude rate of immigration minus the crude rate of net emigration plus the crude rate of net non-permanent resident migration. Net emigration is the balance of emigrants, minus returning emigrants, plus net temporary emigrants. The rate of net interprovincial migration equals the crude rate of interprovincial in-migration minus the crude rate of interprovincial out-migration. Source: Statistics Canada, Demography Division. |
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Description for Figure 3.26
This figure shows four overlapping population pyramids showing the age and sex structures of the 2018 and 2043 Nunavut populations according to three scenarios. In 2018, the pyramid is represented by a solid grey colour, while the 2043 pyramids are represented by purple, blue and orange lines, each corresponding respectively to the slow-aging scenario (SA), the medium-growth scenario (M1) and the fast-aging scenario (FA). The counts by age and sex are expressed in relative values (per thousand) in relation to the total population.
The y-axis is in the middle of the figure, separating the pyramids in two and showing the ages from 0 to 100 years. Males are shown on the left side of the axis, and females are shown on the right side.
The x-axis shows the proportion of persons for each age, expressed per thousand, from 0 to 16, and this is the same for the left-handed and right-handed sides of the y-axis.
The shape of the 2018 population age pyramid has a wide base and a pointed apex, giving it a real pyramidal shape. The lines representing the age and sex structure of the 2043 population according to three scenarios also have a pyramidal shape similar to 2018.
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