January 2024
Spotlight on data and research
Working from home and public transit use in Canada, 2016 to 2023
The increase in work from home triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic has reduced the number of urban public transit commuters in Canada. This study considers different scenarios and shows that depending on which one is selected, the increase in work from home appears to have reduced the number of urban public transit commuters by 290,000 to 780,000, contributing substantially to the drop in urban public transit ridership since 2019.
The proportion of urban commuters using public transit fell from 14.8% in May 2016 to 9.3% in May 2021 and partly rebounded to 11.8% in May 2023. However, measuring the impact of telework growth on public transit use is challenging because several other factors related to the COVID-19 pandemic—increased health concerns, stay-at-home orders and physical distancing measures—may have permanently altered the commuting behaviour of Canadians and also reduced public transit use.
Risks to Canada’s corporate sector as interest rates rise
Similar to Canadian households, Canadian corporations have accumulated increasing levels of debt. This increase, mixed with rising interest rates, puts corporations at greater risk of insolvencies and bankruptcies, which could lead to higher unemployment and slower economic growth. This study provides an overview of how Canadian corporate borrowing has evolved over time and identifies potential risks going forward.
Growth in Canadian corporate debt accelerated significantly between 2010 and 2019, a period of low interest rates. This growth accelerated further in 2021 and 2022, reflecting greater use of bank loans. Total financial liabilities excluding equity represented roughly 160% of Canada’s gross domestic product (GDP) as of the second quarter of 2023, well above the average of 125% recorded from 2000 to 2019.
Insights
Earnings of one-step and two-step economic immigrants: Comparisons from the arrival year
After obtaining permanent residency, high-skilled two-step immigrants—economic immigrants who are chosen from a pool of temporary foreign workers—had higher earnings than one-step immigrants—those directly selected from abroad. This study examines whether there are earnings advantages of two-step immigrants over one-step immigrants, if the two groups were compared from the arrival year rather than the year of becoming permanent residents.
Since the early 2000s, the two-step immigration selection process has expanded rapidly. The study found that two-step immigrants consistently had higher earnings than their one-step counterparts within the same admission class, starting from their arrival year. Among applicants admitted through the Federal Skilled Worker Program from 2010 to 2014, two-step immigrants had 52% higher median earnings than one-step immigrants in the first year after arrival, and 47% higher in the sixth year.
Temporary foreign workers with lower-skill occupations in the accommodation and food services industry: Transition to permanent residency and industrial retention after transition
This study found that by the fifth year working in the accommodation and food services (AFS) industry, 29% of temporary foreign workers (TFWs) with lower-skill occupations who entered the industry between 2010 and 2014 became permanent residents. The rates were higher for TFWs with higher-skill occupations (45%) and study permit holders (49%). However, because of their large population size, the number of TFWs with lower-skill occupations who became immigrants was larger than that of TFWs with higher-skill occupations.
Five years after immigration, nearly 40% of TFWs with lower-skill occupations who became permanent residents between 2011 and 2015 stayed in the AFS industry. By comparison, the rate was higher among TFWs with higher-skill occupations (52%) but lower for study permit holders (16%).
Temporary foreign workers with lower-skill occupations in the food manufacturing industry: Transition to permanent residency and industrial retention after transition
This study found that five years after starting to work in the food manufacturing (FM) industry, TFWs with lower-skill occupations who arrived in Canada from 2010 to 2014 displayed lower cumulative rates of transition to permanent residency (39%) than TFWs with higher-skill occupations (48%).
The percentage of TFWs who stayed in the FM industry fell gradually over the first five years after immigration. Among TFWs with lower-skill occupations who became permanent residents between 2011 and 2015, the retention rate decreased from 73% in the year of immigration to 36% five years later. The degree of retention of TFWs with lower-skill occupations fell with each successive landing cohort. One year after becoming permanent residents, the percentage of TFWs who stayed in the industry decreased from 69% for the 2006-to-2010 landing cohort to 57% for the 2016-to-2019 landing cohort.
Research articles
The short-term labour market outcomes of blended visa office-referred refugees
The Blended Visa Office-Referred (BVOR) Program, initiated in 2013, is a new refugee admission program combining key aspects of the Government-Assisted Refugees (GARs) program and the Privately Sponsored Refugees (PSRs) program. This study found that BVOR refugees had higher employment incidences and earnings than GARs but fell behind PSRs in the first few years after immigration.
One year after landing, 60% of BVOR refugees who were aged 15 to 54 upon arrival (from the 2014 arrival cohort) had employment income, compared with 37% among GARs and 75% among PSRs. Five years after arrival, 73% of BVOR refugees had employment income, compared with 64% among GARs and 79% among PSRs. Most of these differences remained even after adjusting for sociodemographic differences among groups.
Related publications
Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series
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