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A framework for the dynamic analysis of unemployment is presented, and applied to Canadian and U.S. data. The focus of the analysis is upon the distinctionbetween being unemployed and becoming unemployed, that is, between the stock and the flow of unemployment. The share of a particular group in the stock ofunemployed will differ from its share in the flow into unemployment to the extent that the average duration of unemployment for the group differs from the economywide average. An analysis of Canadian and U.S. data leads to a series of stylized facts that permit a deeper understanding of unemployment in the two countries, andof the differences between them. Significant differences in the average duration of unemployment imply that stock shares are not good indicators of flow shares,changes in the stock share of some groups are due to changes in the flow share, while for others they are due to changes in the length of unemployment spells.Explanations of the Canada - U.S. unemployment rate gap should try to accommodate at least three facts uncovered by the analysis: (1) that employer initiatedpermanent separations are the primary means of entry into unemployment in Canada, while labour force entry plays a more important role in the US; (2)unemployment spells are significantly longer in Canada than in the U.S. because of longer spells for most groups regardless of reason for unemployment, not becauseof a compositional difference in the make up of the unemployed; and (3) that longer spell duration and a higher incidence of unemployment contribute about equallyto the trend increase in the Canada - U.S. unemployment differential during the 1980s.

Police-reported violent crime in Canada increased steadily from the early 1970s through to the early 1990s. Homicides, in particular, tend to be widely covered in the media, especially those of a brutal nature or those targeting the more vulnerable members of society. The 1993 General Social Survey indicated a growing concern among Canadians about threats of attack or violence. Yet the homicide rate has gradually been declining since the mid 1970s.

The International Adult Literacy Survey (IALS) measured the variation in basic literacy skills of adults in seven industrialized nations. This note outlines the aims and methodology of the landmark study and provides a snapshot of results for people in Canada, the United States and Germany.

Last November, Statistics Canada hosted its 12th annual International Symposium on Methodology Issues. This report outlines selected speakers' observations about the radical changes taking place in the creation and delivery of statistical information.

This study is one of a series that examines how technology adoption affects the skills of workers. Previous papers in the series have approached this issue in differentways with data from a variety of sources. Using data on the strategies and activities of small and medium-sized firms in both manufacturing and services industries,Baldwin and Johnson (1995), Baldwin, Johnson and Pedersen (1996) examine the connection between the different strategies that are pursued by growing firms.Firms that stress technological competencies are found to also place a greater emphasis on skill enhancement and training activities. Using survey data on the type oftechnology used in manufacturing plants and plant managers' perceptions of the skill requirements and training costs associated with the adoption of newtechnologies, Baldwin, Gray and Johnson (1995) find that technology use leads to greater skill requirements, more training, and higher training costs.This paper uses survey data on the incidence of advanced technology adoption and matched panel data on plant characteristics such as wages, capital intensity, andsize to examine the connection between technology use and the wage rates received by workers. Since higher wages are associated with higher skill levels,establishing a connection between technology use and wages reinforces the earlier findings.

This paper describes the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) following rules, which govern who is traced and who is interviewed. It also outlines the conceptual basis for these procedures.

This paper evaluates the effects of dependent interviewing on the 1994 Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics (SLID) labour data using some early results.

In 1994, Statistics Canada began data collection for the National Population Health Survey (NPHS), a household survey designed to mesure the health status of Canadians and to expand knowledge of health determinants. The survey is longitudinal, with data being collected on selected panel members every second year. This article focuses on the NPHS sample design ant its rationale. Topics include sample allocation, representativeness, and selection; modifications in Quebec and the territories; and integration of the NPHS with the National Longitudinal Survey of Children. The final section considers some methodological issues to be addresses in future waves of the survey.

Changes in Statistics Canada's annual population estimates, introduced in 1993, have an impact on a wide range of social, economic and demographic indicators. Any indicator that relies on population estimates will be affected by the new figures. This article describes the adjustment and examines its impact on health and vital statistics rates. With rare exceptions, all rates decrease as the denominators are adjusted upward. For example, accident rates, suicide rates, and age-specific fertility rates based on the adjustment population are lower than those previously calculated. The extent of the adjustment, however, depends on the geographic and demographic characteristics of the population at risk. Analysts whose work concentrates on special subgroups for whom the adjustment is particularly great (such as young adult men) may wish to pay closer attention to the new population figures. Although the new rates are lower than before, underlying trends and patterns over time or across subcategories are quite similar. The revised series incorporates estimates of net census undercoverage, and for the first time, includes non-permanent residents. In 1991, net census undercoverage and non-permanent residents together amounted to about one million persons, or 3.6% of the revised Canadian population of 28,120,100.

The statistical observation that small firms have created the majority of new jobs during the 1980s has had a tremendous influence on public policy. Governmentshave looked to the small firm sector for employment growth, and have promoted policies to augment this expansion. However, recent research in the US suggeststhat net job creation in the small firm sector may have been overestimated, relative to that in large firms. This paper addresses various measurement issues raised inthe recent research, and uses a very unique Canadian longitudinal data set that encompasses all companies in the Canadian economy to reassess the issue of jobcreation by firm size. We conclude that over the 1978-92 period, for both the entire Canadian economy and the manufacturing sector, the growth rate of (net)employment decreases monotonically as the size of firm increases, no matter which method of sizing firms is used. The small firm sector has accounted for adisproportionate share of both gross job gains and job losses, and in that aggregate, accounted for a disproportionate share of the employment increase over theperiod. Measurement does matter, however, as the magnitude of the difference in the growth rates of small and large firms is very sensitive to the measurementapproaches used. The paper also produces results for various industrial sectors, asks whether the more rapid growth in industries with a high proportion of smallfirms is responsible for the findings at the all-economy level, and examines employment growth in existing small and large firms (ie excluding births). It is found thatemployment growth in the population of existing small and large firms is very similar.

The first in this series is the Consulting Engineering Services Price Index (CEPI) which is an annual index that measures changes in the prices for services provided by consulting engineers. These services encompass advisory and design work as well as construction or project management. They are provided for many types of projects (fields of specialization), and to both Canadian and foreign clients. Price indexes are published for 10 fields of specialization as well as for national, regional, and foreign markets.

The National Population Health Survey (NPHS) is designed to enhance the understanding of the processes affecting health. The survey collects cross-sectional as well as longitudinal data. In 1994/95 the survey interviewed a panel of 17,276 individuals, then returned to interview them a second time in 1996/97. The response rate for these individuals was 96% in 1996/97. Data collection from the panel will continue for up to two decades. For cross-sectional purposes, data were collected for a total of 81,000 household residents in all provinces (except people on Indian reserves or on Canadian Forces bases) in 1996/97.

This overview illustrates the variety of information available by presenting data on perceived health, chronic conditions, injuries, repetitive strains, depression, smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, consultations with medical professionals, use of medications and use of alternative medicine.

Documentation to accompany public-use microdata files. Contains a detailed description of the survey design, content and methods, as well as the record layout and the data dictionary.

Cycle 10 collected data from persons 15 years and older and concentrated on the respondent's family. Topics covered include marital history, common- law unions, biological, adopted and step children, family origins, child leaving and fertility intentions.

The target population of the GSS (General Social Survey) consisted of all individuals aged 15 and over living in a private household in one of the ten provinces.

This paper introduces a R-package for the stratification of a survey population using a univariate stratification variable X and for the calculation of stratum sample sizes. Non iterative methods such as the cumulative root frequency method and the geometric stratum boundaries are implemented. Optimal designs, with stratum boundaries that minimize either the CV of the simple expansion estimator for a fixed sample size n or the n value for a fixed CV can be constructed. Two iterative algorithms are available to find the optimal stratum boundaries. The design can feature a user defined certainty stratum where all the units are sampled. Take-all and take-none strata can be included in the stratified design as they might lead to smaller sample sizes. The sample size calculations are based on the anticipated moments of the survey variable Y, given the stratification variable X. The package handles conditional distributions of Y given X that are either a heteroscedastic linear model, or a log-linear model. Stratum specific non-response can be accounted for in the design construction and in the sample size calculations.

In two-phase sampling for stratification, the second-phase sample is selected by a stratified sample based on the information observed in the first-phase sample. We develop a replication-based bias adjusted variance estimator that extends the method of Kim, Navarro and Fuller (2006). The proposed method is also applicable when the first-phase sampling rate is not negligible and when second-phase sample selection is unequal probability Poisson sampling within each stratum. The proposed method can be extended to variance estimation for two-phase regression estimators. Results from a limited simulation study are presented.

We analyze the statistical and economic efficiency of different designs of cluster surveys collected in two consecutive time periods, or waves. In an independent design, two cluster samples in two waves are taken independently from one another. In a cluster-panel design, the same clusters are used in both waves, but samples within clusters are taken independently in two time periods. In an observation-panel design, both clusters and observations are retained from one wave of data collection to another. By assuming a simple population structure, we derive design variances and costs of the surveys conducted according to these designs. We first consider a situation in which the interest lies in estimation of the change in the population mean between two time periods, and derive the optimal sample allocations for the three designs of interest. We then propose the utility maximization framework borrowed from microeconomics to illustrate a possible approach to the choice of the design that strives to optimize several variances simultaneously. Incorporating the contemporaneous means and their variances tends to shift the preferences from observation-panel towards simpler panel-cluster and independent designs if the panel mode of data collection is too expensive. We present numeric illustrations demonstrating how a survey designer may want to choose the efficient design given the population parameters and data collection cost.

This paper examines the efficiency of the Horvitz-Thompson estimator from a systematic probability proportional to size (PPS) sample drawn from a randomly ordered list. In particular, the efficiency is compared with that of an ordinary ratio estimator. The theoretical results are confirmed empirically with of a simulation study using Dutch data from the Producer Price Index.

In the calibration method proposed by Deville and Särndal (1992), the calibration equations take only exact estimates of auxiliary variable totals into account. This article examines other parameters besides totals for calibration. Parameters that are considered complex include the ratio, median or variance of auxiliary variables.

In order to provide a holographic or complete picture of low income, Statistics Canada uses three complementary low income lines: the Low Income Cut-offs (LICOs), the Low Income Measures (LIMs) and the Market Basket Measure (MBM). While the first two lines were developed by Statistics Canada, the MBM is based on concepts developed by Human Resources and Skill Development Canada. Though these measures differ from one another, they give a generally consistent picture of low income status over time. None of these measures is the best. Each contributes its own perspective and its own strengths to the study of low income, so that cumulatively, the three provide a better understanding of the phenomenon of low income as a whole. These measures are not measures of poverty, but strictly measures of low income.

The purpose of this paper is twofold. First, the authors provide a detailed social accounting matrix (SAM), which incorporates the income and financial flows into the standard input-output matrix, for the Canadian economy for 2004. Second, they use the SAM to assess the strength of the real-financial linkages by calculating and comparing real SAM multipliers and financial social accounting matrix (FSAM) multipliers. For FSAM multipliers, financial flows are endogenous, whereas for real SAM multipliers they are not. The results show that taking into account financial flows increases the impact of a final demand shock on Canadian output. Financial flows also play an important role in determining the cumulative effect of an income shock or the availability of investment funds. Between 2008 and the first half of 2009, financial institutions shifted their investments toward government bonds, short-term paper, and foreign investments. This shift together with the fact that non-financial institutions were unwilling or unable to increase their financial liabilities, led to estimated declines in all GDP multipliers between 2008 and the first half of 2009 (2009H1). The main advantage of using the extended input-output analysis is that it provides a simple framework, with very few assumptions, which allows the assessment of the strength of real-financial linkages by means of multipliers. However, the methodology is subject to the Lucas critique, that as shocks shift prices, agents cannot adjust. Such a framework is, nevertheless, appropriate in short-term impact analysis such as this study.

The paper explores and assesses the approaches used by statistical offices to ensure effective methodological input into their statistical practice. The tension between independence and relevance is a common theme: generally, methodologists have to work closely with the rest of the statistical organisation for their work to be relevant; but they also need to have a degree of independence to question the use of existing methods and to lead the introduction of new ones where needed. And, of course, there is a need for an effective research program which, on the one hand, has a degree of independence needed by any research program, but which, on the other hand, is sufficiently connected so that its work is both motivated by and feeds back into the daily work of the statistical office. The paper explores alternative modalities of organisation; leadership; planning and funding; the role of project teams; career development; external advisory committees; interaction with the academic community; and research.

One key to poverty alleviation or eradication in the third world is reliable information on the poor and their location, so that interventions and assistance can be effectively targeted to the neediest people. Small area estimation is one statistical technique that is used to monitor poverty and to decide on aid allocation in pursuit of the Millennium Development Goals. Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw (ELL) (2003) proposed a small area estimation methodology for income-based or expenditure-based poverty measures, which is implemented by the World Bank in its poverty mapping projects via the involvement of the central statistical agencies in many third world countries, including Cambodia, Lao PDR, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, and is incorporated into the World Bank software program PovMap. In this paper, the ELL methodology which consists of first modeling survey data and then applying that model to census information is presented and discussed with strong emphasis on the first phase, i.e., the fitting of regression models and on the estimated standard errors at the second phase. Other regression model fitting procedures such as the General Survey Regression (GSR) (as described in Lohr (1999) Chapter 11) and those used in existing small area estimation techniques: Pseudo-Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (Pseudo-EBLUP) approach (You and Rao 2002) and Iterative Weighted Estimating Equation (IWEE) method (You, Rao and Kovacevic 2003) are presented and compared with the ELL modeling strategy. The most significant difference between the ELL method and the other techniques is in the theoretical underpinning of the ELL model fitting procedure. An example based on the Philippines Family Income and Expenditure Survey is presented to show the differences in both the parameter estimates and their corresponding standard errors, and in the variance components generated from the different methods and the discussion is extended to the effect of these on the estimated accuracy of the final small area estimates themselves. The need for sound estimation of variance components, as well as regression estimates and estimates of their standard errors for small area estimation of poverty is emphasized.

This paper considers the problem of selecting nonparametric models for small area estimation, which recently have received much attention. We develop a procedure based on the idea of fence method (Jiang, Rao, Gu and Nguyen 2008) for selecting the mean function for the small areas from a class of approximating splines. Simulation results show impressive performance of the new procedure even when the number of small areas is fairly small. The method is applied to a hospital graft failure dataset for selecting a nonparametric Fay-Herriot type model.

Statistics Canada publishes several measures of farm income, each produced for a different purpose. This bulletin describes the concepts behind these different measures, the methods by which the measures are constructed, and the uses for which they were designed.

This report explains the concept of income and provides definitions of the various sources of income and derived income variables. It also documents the various aspects of the census that can have an impact on census income estimates.

This paper states how SN is preparing for a new era in the making of statistics, as it is triggered by technological and methodological developments. An essential feature of the turn to the new era is the farewell to the stovepipe way of data processing. The paper discusses how new technological and methodological tools will affect processes and their organization. Special emphasis is put on one of the major chances and challenges the new tools offer: establishing coherence in the content of statistics and in the presentation to users.

The Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB) links immigration and taxation administrative records into a comprehensive source of data on the labour market behaviour of the landed immigrant population in Canada. It covers the period 1980 to 1995 and will be updated annually starting with the 1996 tax year in 1999. Statistics Canada manages the database on behalf of a federal-provincial consortium led by Citizenship and Immigration Canada. The IMDB was created specifically to respond to the need for detailed and reliable data on the performance and impact of immigration policies and programs. It is the only source of data at Statistics Canada that provides a direct link between immigration policy levers and the economic performance of immigrants. The paper will examine the issues related to the development of a longitudinal database combining administrative records to support policy-relevant research and analysis. Discussion will focus specifically on the methodological, conceptual, analytical and privacy issues involved in the creation and ongoing development of this database. The paper will also touch briefly on research findings, which illustrate the policy outcome links the IMDB allows policy-makers to investigate.

As the availability of both health utilization and outcome information becomes increasingly important to health care researchers and policy makers, the ability to link person-specific health data becomes a critical objective. This type of linkage of population-based administrative health databases has been realized in British Columbia. The database was created by constructing an historical file of all persons registered with the health care system, and then by probabilistically linking various program files to this 'coordinating' file. The first phase of development included the linkage of hospital discharge data, physician billing data, continuing care data, data about drug costs for the elderly, births data and deaths data. The second phase of development has seen the addition data sources external to the Ministry of Health including cancer incidence data, workers' compensation data, and income assistance data.

Following the problems with estimating underenumeration in the 1991 Census of England and Wales the aim for the 2001 Census is to create a database that is fully adjusted to net underenumeration. To achieve this, the paper investigates weighted donor imputation methodology that utilises information from both the census and census coverage survey (CCS). The US Census Bureau has considered a similar approach for their 2000 Census (see Isaki et al 1998). The proposed procedure distinguishes between individuals who are not counted by the census because their household is missed and those who are missed in counted households. Census data is linked to data from the CCS. Multinomial logistic regression is used to estimate the probabilities that households are missed by the census and the probabilities that individuals are missed in counted households. Household and individual coverage weights are constructed from the estimated probabilities and these feed into the donor imputation procedure.

The geographical and temporal relationship between outdoor air pollution and asthma was examined by linking together data from multiple sources. These included the administrative records of 59 general practices widely dispersed across England and Wales for half a million patients and all their consultations for asthma, supplemented by a socio-economic interview survey. Postcode enabled linkage with: (i) computed local road density; (ii) emission estimates of sulphur dioxide and nitrogen dioxides, (iii) measured/interpolated concentration of black smoke, sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide and other pollutants at practice level. Parallel Poisson time series analysis took into account between-practice variations to examine daily correlations in practices close to air quality monitoring stations. Preliminary analyses show small and generally non-significant geographical associations between consultation rates and pollution markers. The methodological issues relevant to combining such data, and the interpretation of these results will be discussed.

Electricity rates that vary by time-of-day have the potential to significantly increase economic efficiency in the energy market. A number of utilities have undertaken economic studies of time-of-use rates schemes for their residential customers. This paper uses meta-analysis to examine the impact of time-of-use rates on electricity demand pooling the results of thirty-eight separate programs. There are four key findings. First, very large peak to off-peak price ratios are needed to significantly affect peak demand. Second, summer peak rates are relatively effective compared to winter peak rates. Third, permanent time-or-use rates are relatively effective compared to experimental ones. Fourth, demand charges rival ordinary time-of-use rates in terms of impact.

We use data on 14 populations of coho salmon to estimate critical parameters that are vital for management of fish populations. Parameter estimates from individual data sets are inefficient and can be highly biased, and we investigate methods to overcome these problems. Combination of data sets using nonlinear mixed effects models provides more useful results, however questions of influence and robustness are raised. For comparison, robust estimates are obtained. Model-robustness is also explored using a family of alternative functional forms. Our results allow ready calculation of the limits of exploitation and may help to prevent extinction of fish stocks. Similar methods can be applied in other contexts where parameter estimation is part of a larger decision-making process.

This report deals with sampling and weighting, a process whereby certain characteristics are collected and processed for a random sample of dwellings and persons identified in the complete census enumeration. Data for the whole population are then obtained by scaling up the results for the sample to the full population level. The use of sampling may lead to substantial reductions in costs and respondent burden, or alternatively, can allow the scope of a census to be broadened at the same cost.