Technical Guide on Demographic Estimates at Statistics Canada
Chapter 9
Returning emigrants

Emigration is not a permanent phenomenon. Although many people leave Canada each year to settle abroad, a certain number of them eventually choose to return to the country. This demographic phenomenon is known as returning emigration.

This chapter describes the methods used to produce estimates of the number of returning emigrants.

Definitions and concepts

Returning emigrants are Canadian citizens or immigrants (permanent residents) who have previously emigrated from Canada for a short-term or long-term and subsequently returned to live in Canada. Returning emigration also includes the immigration to Canada of citizens by birth who were born abroad.

Like emigrants, estimates of the number of returning emigrants are divided into long-term returning emigrants and short-term returning emigrants for the purpose of calculating the number of returning emigrants. The total number of returning emigrants is calculated by adding long-term returning emigrants and short-term returning emigrants. Only estimates of the number of returning emigrants are published.

Long-term returning emigrants

Final estimates

Data sources

Unlike immigration, and like emigration, returning emigration is not subject to mandatory reporting. There is no centralized system that officially records the return of people who have left Canada. Consequently, estimates of the number and characteristics of returning emigrants must be drawn from secondary sources.

As with the calculation of the number of long-term emigrants, data from the Canada child benefit (CCB) and the T1 Family File (T1FF) are used to estimate the number of long-term returning emigrants. As with emigration, determining the return to Canada depends on residency status for income tax purposes.

The CCB file indicates the number of dependent children (under 18 years of age) whose parents, who are CCB recipients, have returned to Canada after a period of emigration. These data, provided annually by the Canada Revenue Agency (CRA), are used to identify returning child emigrants, broken down by province or territory. A citizen or an immigrant (permanent resident) who has emigrated regains eligibility for the CCB program if they reestablish residential, economic and social ties in Canada. A long-term returning child emigrant is identified by the presence of a departure date and a return date in the CCB file, as well as by the residence status of the parents.

Estimates are also based on the T1FF, an annual tax file produced by Statistics Canada. The T1FF contains demographic and income data at subprovincial and subterritorial levels. This file is constructed from various administrative sources, such as T1 and T4 forms, as well as CCB data provided by the CRA.

Data from the most recent census are also used to estimate the number of long-term returning adult emigrants.

Method

Overall, the methods for estimating the number of long-term returning emigrants are fairly similar to those for the number of long-term emigrants. As with long-term emigrants, estimates of the number of children and adults who are long-term returning emigrants are calculated separately. Figure 9.1 shows a diagram illustrating the method used to estimate the number of long-term returning emigrants.

Figure 9.1 start

Description for Figure 9.1

Figure 9.1 presents a diagram illustrating the method for estimating the number of long-term returning emigrants. First, two data sources are used: the T1 Family File (T1FF) and the Canada child benefit (CCB). Then, the CCB data are adjusted using three factors to account for bias, partial completeness and incomplete coverage of data, given that the CCB program is not universal. Subsequently, a ratio calculated from census data is applied to estimate the number of returning adult emigrants. Finally, the estimates of children and adults are combined to obtain the total number of long-term returning emigrants.

Figure 9.1 end

Estimates of the number of returning child emigrants must be adjusted because the CCB program is not universal and covers only eligible children. Four correction factors are used to account for:

1. the partial coverage of the program, that is, individuals who do not apply for the CCB or who are not eligible^Note ;
2. the differential propensity to emigrate between all children and those who are eligible for the CCB;
3. the incomplete CCB coverage caused by delays in receiving and processing the files of eligible children;
4. the ratio between the number of adults and children in the returning emigrant population.

These correction factors are calculated using data from the CCB, the T1FF and Demographic Estimates Program (DEP) estimates, as well as data from the latest census.

Finally, the total number of long-term returning emigrants is calculated by combining the estimates of adults and children.

Long-term returning child emigrants

As in the case of child emigrants, correction factors are applied to adjust CCB data.

A first factor is used to adjust CCB data to account for the partial coverage of the program, i.e., people who do not apply for benefits or who are not eligible. This factor is obtained by comparing the estimated number of children in the population with that in the CCB file (Equation 8.2).

A second factor is applied to account for the differential propensity to emigrate between children who are eligible for the CCB and those who are not. In this case, the ratio is assumed to be the same as that used for emigrants (Equation 8.3).

Third, a completeness factor is applied to compensate for the incompleteness of the CCB file caused by delays in registering children’s returning emigration. This factor is calculated using the same method as that used for emigrants but based on the numbers of returning emigrants (Equations 8.4a, 8.4b and 8.4c).

Finally, the formula mentioned previously (Equation 8.1), which is used to calculate the estimate of the number of long-term child emigrants, is also used to estimate the number of long-term returning child emigrants. In this case, the variable representing the number of child emigrants by province or territory, based on CCB data, is replaced by the one corresponding to the number of long-term child emigrants returning to Canada.

The formula used to estimate the number of long-term returning child emigrants, applied for each province and territory, is as follows:

Equation 9.1:           ${}_{j}R{E}^{0-17}={}_j{}^{CCB}R{E}^{0-17}\times \frac{1}{{}_j{}^{CCB}\Re }\times {}_{j}G\times D$

where

Long-term returning adult emigrants

The number of adults returning to Canada after long-term emigration can be estimated indirectly from census data. However, the census cannot be directly used to provide the number of adult emigrants returning to Canada, because it is not timely enough for the purposes of demographic estimates. The number of adults who are long-term returning emigrants is therefore estimated using an adult–child ratio calculated from the census and applied to the estimates of the number of children who are long-term returning emigrants obtained through the methods presented earlier. This ratio is calculated as follows, based on the latest available census:

Equation 9.2:           ${\tau }^{RE}=\frac{{}^{C}R{E}^{18+}}{{}^{C}R{E}^{0-17}}$

where

The number of long-term returning adult emigrants is estimated by multiplying the estimate of long-term returning child emigrants, obtained from the adjusted CCB data, by the adult–child ratio defined in Equation 9.2.

Equation 9.3:           ${}_{j}R{E}^{18+}={}^{CCB}R{E}^{0-17}\times {\tau }^{RE}$

where

Subsequently, the number of adults is added to the number of children for each province and territory.

The national monthly distribution, corresponding to the sum of the provincial and territorial data, is then applied uniformly to each province and territory. The underlying assumption is that national seasonality better reflects variations in returning emigration than the specific seasonality of each province or territory.

Equation 9.4:

$${}_{j}R{E}_m^{\text{'}}=\frac{{\displaystyle \sum _j{}_{j}R{E}_m^{\text{}}}}{{\displaystyle \sum _m{\displaystyle \sum _j{}_{j}R{E}_m^{\text{}}}}}*{\displaystyle \sum _m{}_{j}R{E}_m^{\text{}}}$$

where

These steps produce estimates of the number of long-term returning emigrants per month, for each province and territory, based on available data.

Preliminary and updated estimates

Preliminary and updated estimates of the number of long-term returning emigrants follow a different method, because of the lack of sufficiently complete CCB data. This method applies to the current year, as well as to previous years, when estimates are not yet final.

Data sources

Preliminary and updated estimates of the number of long-term returning emigrants are derived from the final estimates of long-term returning emigrants and the population estimates from the DEP.

Method

Once again, the preliminary and updated methods for estimating the number of long-term returning emigrants are similar to those for long-term emigrants. In the absence of sufficiently complete CCB data to estimate the number of long-term returning emigrants for recent years, a rate is calculated using the most recent final estimates of long-term returning emigrants and the population at the beginning of the period corresponding to these estimates. In addition, the population at the beginning of the year to be estimated is also used. The number of long-term returning emigrants for recent years is estimated in four steps:

1. The rate is calculated at the Canadian level based on the final estimates of the number of long-term returning emigrants and the population at the beginning of the period. This rate is calculated with the same method used for emigrants but based on the number of returning emigrants (Equation 8.14);
2. The calculated rate is applied to the population on July 1 of year t to obtain an estimate of the number of returning emigrants at the national level (Equation 8.15);
3. The national number of long-term returning emigrants is then distributed across provinces and territories based on the distribution of long-term returning emigrants from year t-x, t-x+1. This distribution follows Equation 8.16, which mirrors the methodology used for emigrants, adapted for returning emigrants;
4. The provincial and territorial figures calculated in the previous step are then broken down by month, using the monthly distribution of long-term returning emigrants from year t-x, t-x+1, according to Equation 8.17.

These steps produce monthly estimates of the number of long-term returning emigrants for each province and territory, based on available data.

Short-term returning emigrants

Some people leave Canada for a short-term stay in another country without maintaining a usual place of residence in Canada. Final estimates of the number of short-term returning emigrants for the intercensal period are calculated every five years when the base population for the demographic estimates is recalculated.

Final estimates

Data sources

The estimates of the number of short-term returning emigrants are derived from two sources: the DEP estimates of long-term returning emigrants and information on the place of residence five years prior to the census. The census provides the number of Canadian citizens and landed immigrants living outside Canada at the time of the previous census and who returned to the country during the intercensal period.

The census data are assumed to capture all cases of returning emigration, while the DEP data cover only long-term returning emigrants.

Method

The monthly number of short-term returning emigrants is estimated by province or territory as follows:

1. Census data on the place of residence five years prior (variable MOB5) are used to estimate the number of short-term returning emigrants. However, since this variable does not cover children under the age of 5 years, an adjustment is made to ensure full representation of the population. This adjustment is carried out using MOB5 and the age and sex distribution of long-term returning emigrants from the DEP. A ratio is calculated using the number of long-term returning emigrants under 5 years and those aged 5 years and over:

Equation 9.5:

$${{\displaystyle R}}_{\beta }^{0-4}=\frac{{\displaystyle \sum _{a=0}^4{{\displaystyle {}_a{}^{dist}ER}}_{\beta }^{LT}}}{{\displaystyle \sum _{a=5}^{120+}{{\displaystyle {}_a{}^{dist}ER}}_{\beta }^{LT}}}$$

where

2. The number of short-term returning emigrants under 5 years is obtained by applying the calculated ratio to the MOB5 returning emigrant data:

Equation 9.6:     

$${{\displaystyle {}^{MOB5}ER}}_{\beta }^{0-4}={{\displaystyle R}}_{\beta }^{0-4}*{{\displaystyle {}^{MOB5}ER}}_{\beta }$$

where

3. The estimate from the second step is added to the MOB5 returning emigrants to obtain the adjusted data covering all ages:

Equation 9.7:     

$${{\displaystyle {}^{MOB5}ER}}_{\beta }^{Total}={{\displaystyle {}^{MOB5}ER}}_{\beta }+{{\displaystyle {}^{MOB5}ER}}_{\beta }^{0-4}$$

where

4. The number of short-term returning emigrants is calculated by subtracting the estimates of long-term returning emigrants from the adjusted MOB5 figures. This calculation is performed only at the national level.

Equation 9.8:     

$${{\displaystyle ER}}_{\beta -5,\beta }^{ST}={{\displaystyle {}^{MOB5}ER}}_{\beta }^{Total}-{\displaystyle \sum _{j=TNL}^{Nt}{}_j{{\displaystyle ER}}_{\beta -5,\beta }^{LT}}$$

where

5. The national number of short-term returning emigrants is then distributed across the provinces and territories according to the distribution of short-term emigrants. This distribution is based on the assumption that short-term emigrants return to settle in the same province or territory as they left. The distribution follows the equation below:

Equation 9.9:   

$${{\displaystyle {}_{j}ER}}_{\beta -5,\beta }^{ST}={{\displaystyle ER}}_{\beta -5,\beta }^{ST}*\frac{{{\displaystyle {}_{j}E}}_{\beta -5,\beta }^{ST}}{{\displaystyle \sum _{j=TNL}^{Nt}{{\displaystyle {}_{j}E}}_{\beta -5,\beta }^{ST}}}$$

where

6. The provincial and territorial data calculated in the previous step are then broken down by month using the monthly distribution of short-term emigrants. The calculation is as follows:

Equation 9.10:   

$${{\displaystyle {}_{j}ER}}_m^{ST}={{\displaystyle {}_j{}^{}ER}}_{\beta -5,\beta }^{ST}*\frac{{{\displaystyle {}_{j}E}}_m^{ST}}{{\displaystyle \sum _m{{\displaystyle {}_{j}E}}_m^{ST}}}$$

where

These steps produce monthly estimates of the number of short-term returning emigrants, for each province and territory, based on available data.

Preliminary and updated estimates

Data sources

Preliminary and updated estimates of the number of short-term emigrants are derived from the estimates of short-term emigrants and the population estimates from the DEP.

Method

It is possible to estimate the number of short-term returning emigrants only for the intercensal period preceding the most recent census, because the method relies on census data. The provisional and updated estimation methods for the number of short-term returning emigrants are similar to those used for short-term emigration. The number of short-term returning emigrants for recent years is estimated in four steps:

1. A rate for the entire country is derived from the five-year data on short-term returning emigrants;
2. This rate is applied to the population as of July 1 to obtain the number of short-term returning emigrants for year t, t+1 in Canada;
3. The national data are broken down by province or territory according to the distribution of short-term emigrants;
4. The provincial and territorial data are broken down by month using the monthly distribution of short-term emigration.

Finally, the number of returning emigrants is calculated by adding the number of long-term returning emigrants and the number of short-term returning emigrants.

Estimates of the number of returning emigrants by age and gender

The age and gender distribution of long-term returning emigrants is based on census data. The characteristics of long-term returning emigrants are derived from one-year mobility data, after excluding non-permanent residents and recent immigrants. As of 2021/2022, the age and gender distributions used are based on the 2021 Census.

For short-term returning emigrants, the age and gender distribution is based on that of short-term emigrants.

Subprovincial estimates of returning emigrants

The distribution of long-term returning emigrants at the subprovincial and subterritorial levels is obtained by comparing the addresses provided in the T1FF over two consecutive fiscal years. For this step, a returning emigrant is defined as a tax filer whose tax address is abroad in the first year examined and in Canada in the second year, and who also appears in a historical file containing all social insurance numbers issued in Canada. This method makes it possible to identify a person as a returning emigrant even if they left the country many years earlier.

Estimates are initially calculated by broad age group (0 to 17, 18 to 24, 25 to 44, 45 to 64, and 65 and over). They are then broken down by age and gender according to the provincial or territorial distribution of long-term returning emigrants. These estimates are subsequently adjusted to provincial and territorial totals using two-way raking to ensure consistency.

Short-term returning emigrants follow the same subprovincial distribution as short-term emigrants.

Limitations

Returning emigration is one of the most difficult components of population growth to estimate accurately between censuses, because of the absence of a registration system at Canada’s borders. Unlike immigrants and non-permanent residents, who settle in Canada by obtaining a permit issued by the federal government, the number of returning emigrants is calculated using indirect estimation methods, similar to those used to estimate the number of emigrants. As a result, statistics relating to returning emigrants generally display a higher degree of uncertainty than those for other components of population growth.

As with emigration, estimates of the number of long-term returning emigrants are based on tax data taken from the CCB. These data use a tax concept of returning emigration and must be adjusted to better represent the population. Conceptual differences, adjustments and delays in obtaining data are the main sources of error.

Preliminary and updated estimates of the number of long-term returning emigrants are produced using the most recent final data, since CCB data are not deemed sufficiently complete at the time these estimates are calculated. Consequently, this method is based on the assumption that returning emigration trends remain stable for recent years. This assumption is not systematically valid and may affect the precision of the estimates.

In the absence of current information on short-term returning emigrants, final estimates are based on the estimates of the number of long-term returning emigrants from the DEP and information on the place of residence five years prior to the census for the previous intercensal period. This approach is based on several assumptions, notably that the census captures all cases of returning emigration. Estimates for the intercensal period are distributed according to the distribution of short-term emigrants. Furthermore, certain additional assumptions must be made to break down national data by province or territory, and annual data by quarter. Since census data are available every five years, further assumptions are required to estimate the number of short-term returning emigrants for the postcensal period, notably that the short-term returning emigration rate is constant.

Net emigration

The net emigration figure enables a consistent comparison of emigration components over time. It corresponds to the difference between emigrants and returning emigrants. Before July 2016, the calculation of net emigration also included net temporary emigration: emigrants + net temporary emigration - returning emigrants.

Estimates of the number of emigrants and returning emigrants have been revised since July 2016. Prior to this date, short-term emigrants and short-term returning emigrants were included in the “net temporary emigration” component. After this date, they have been included in the emigrants and returning emigrants components, respectively, according to the methodology described above and in the previous chapter. As a result of this change, the net temporary emigration component is no longer calculated from July 2016.

Net temporary emigration

For more information on the methodology of this component, consult the previous version of this document (91-528-X): Chapter 6 Emigrants, net temporary emigrants and returning emigrants.