Technical Guide on Demographic Estimates at Statistics Canada
Chapter 11
Intraprovincial migration

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Introduction

Intraprovincial migration represents all movement from one region to another within the same province or territory involving a change of the usual place residence. Interprovincial migration also involves a change in usual place of residence, but these movements occur between provinces and territories. The term internal migration may refer to either interprovincial migration or intraprovincial migration, or both. This chapter focuses on the intraprovincial migration component. For information on interprovincial migration, see Chapter 10.

As with interprovincial migration, there is no provision for recording intraprovincial migration in Canada. Consequently, this component of demographic growth is estimated using administrative data. The methods used to prepare estimates of intraprovincial migration will be discussed in this chapter.

Definitions and concepts

Intraprovincial migration is the movement of persons from one region to another within a given province or territory, involving a change to their usual place of residence. These movements are measured by comparing the place of residence at the beginning and end of the measurement period.

Given the definition of intraprovincial migration, estimates are typically provided at the subprovincial level, for a given region. Migrations within a given region are not included.

At the provincial/territorial level, there is no net effect of intraprovincial migration to the population estimates, as all intraprovincial migrants remain within the province/territory. The sum of intraprovincial in-migrants and out-migrants at the provincial/territorial level is identical, and corresponds to the total number of intraprovincial migrants of a given province/territory for a given type of geography.

Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) provides Statistics Canada with data from the Canada child benefit (CCB) program and personal income tax returns (such as T1 and T4), which are used to estimate intraprovincial migration.

Final intraprovincial migration estimates

Data sources

The T1 Family File (T1FF) is an annual administrative tax file processed by Statistics Canada. The T1FF contains income and demographic information of tax filers and their dependants for subprovincial geographic areas. The file is created using various administrative data including those provided by Canada Revenue Agency, such as the T1, T4, and the Canada Child Benefit.

The Canada Child Benefit (CCB) is a tax-free monthly payment made to eligible families with children under 18 years of age. Information from the CCB program is provided by the Canada Revenue Agency on a monthly basis, and the data is used to identify migration of children.

Estimation methodology

Final estimates of intraprovincial migration are produced using the T1FF. By comparing the place of residence at the time of filing, it is possible to identify for those persons who file returns for two consecutive years, those who move, their place of origin and their destination. The development of migration data involves four main steps:

  1. geocoding of tax records;
  2. estimation of non-filing dependants of tax filers, by age group and gender;
  3. identification of migrant tax filers by age group and gender;
  4. adjustment for the population not covered by the T1FF.

The four steps of the estimation methodology are described below.

Step 1 – Geocoding

The migration data developed from the taxation records are estimates of migration flows between census divisions (CDs) or census metropolitan areas (CMAs) and census agglomerations (CAs). The geographic coding of CDs, CMAs, and CAs on the tax records is done primarily on the basis of the postal code, which is a part of the mailing address. About 99% of all tax records are filed with a postal code, or are assigned one, based on the filer's address by matching the address to a file similar to the Postal Code Directory from Canada Post. As the tax return is usually submitted several months after the end of the tax year, the postal codes correspond to those existing in the spring of the year following the tax year.

Step 2 – Estimation of dependants

Since the tax records source file has no direct information on the number and characteristics of non-filing dependants, this information must be imputed. The estimation of tax filers' dependants is based on the T1FF. Families are created by linking all filing family members together, using spousal social insurance numbers, marital status, and matched addresses. Non-filing spouse is imputed whenever a filer has declared himself or herself married but was not linked to a filing spouse. Children are imputed based on CCB data, which carry the social insurance number of the parent receiving the benefit, as well as from previous T1FF. Newborns are added to tax filer records from Statistics Canada's Birth Database.

The family data from the T1FF are then used to create a file of individual tax filers for the migration system. The migration file contains information for each tax filer and assigns dependants to each tax filer based on the number of filers in the family, and the number of dependants. If only one parent in the family has filed a tax return, then all dependants, including the spouse, if one exists, are added to the tax filer's record. If both parents filed tax returns, and their family record contained dependant children, then each tax filer would receive half the count of dependants.

Step 3 – Identifying migrant tax filers

After assigning the geographic codes and non-filing dependants to each tax filer, records for two consecutive years are matched by social insurance number. Only records of tax filers who are present in both years are retained. Migrant tax filers are identified by comparing current and previous geography codes (CDs, CMAs, or CAs). Thus, it is only possible to determine migrant status for those who file in two consecutive years. The identification of migrants is based on their address at the time of filing, and thus the migration period is not precisely one year, but it is assumed to be close. The assumed reference period is around April to April, of the year following each tax year. However, in Statistics Canada’s Demographic Estimates Program, the given estimates cover the period from July to June. Tax filers' non-filing dependants are assumed to have the same migration behaviour as that of the filers to whom they are assigned.

Step 4 – Coverage adjustment factor

The final step in the estimation process is an adjustment for coverage, performed at the CD, CMA, and CA level for gender and specific age groups. This adjustment is required to estimate those migrants who did not file two consecutive personal income tax returns, which involves the calculation of coverage adjustment factors.

The coverage adjustment factors are calculated by dividing the population estimates from the Demographic Estimates Program of a given CD, CMA or CA with the T1FF counts, for each gender and age group.

The adjustment factors are applied to the counts of intraprovincial migrants derived in Step 3 to obtain an estimate of total migrants. The basic assumption is that the population not covered by the taxation system has the same rate of migration as those for whom it can be measured.

The migration estimates of individuals from one region to another within a province/territory (whether at CD, CMA or CA level) are then aggregated to obtain the estimates of in-migrants, out-migrants, and net intraprovincial migrationNote 1 for each region. A calibration step is also included to ensure consistency.

For intraprovincial migration by economic regions (ERs), the final estimates are produced by aggregating CD totals for each corresponding ER. The estimates are then calibrated to ensure consistency.

Final intraprovincial migration estimates by age and gender

Final intraprovincial migration estimates are derived from the T1FF file consisting of age and gender, as well as the region of origin and destination. The out-migrant data by single year of age is used to distribute the previously produced data by broad age group. Due to the nature of splitting broad age groups into single year of age, some sharp breaks can still remain around the ages at the boundaries of the original age groups. To smooth out the transitions, a simple Gaussian smoothing method is applied across the distributions by single year of age. Estimates from 2021/2022 onwards are based on this method.Note 2

Limitations to final intraprovincial migration estimates

Although the T1FF has strong coverage of the population,Note 3 adjustments are still required to cover the entire population. An assumption is introduced through the adjustments where the migration patterns of those not captured in two consecutive T1FF are the same as those that were captured. However, it is possible for those not captured in the T1FF to behave differently in terms of migration.

The reference period of two consecutive T1FF is also slightly different from the reference period of annual estimates. The migrations captured in the T1FF (approximately from April to April) may vary from those that would have occurred from the reference period of July 1 to June 30.

The more notable limitation of the T1FF is the frequency and timing at which the data is available. The file is produced on an annual basis and is not available in time for production of preliminary estimates of a given reference period. As such, the CCB is used as the primary data source to produce preliminary intraprovincial migration estimates for children aged 0 to 17, while the previous year’s T1FF is used to calculate migration rates for those aged 18 and older.

Preliminary intraprovincial migration estimates

Data sources

The Canada Child Benefit (CCB) is a tax-free monthly payment made to eligible families with children under 18 years of age. Information from the CCB program is provided by the Canada Revenue Agency on a monthly basis, and the data is used to identify migration of children.

The T1 Family File (T1FF) is an annual administrative tax file processed by Statistics Canada. The T1FF contains income and demographic information for subprovincial geographic areas. The file is created using various administrative data provided by Canada Revenue Agency, including the T1, T4, and the CCB.

Estimation methodology

PreliminaryNote 4 estimates of migration between regions within the same province or territory are produced using CCB data, along with data from T1FF. Because the CCB program is not universal and does not provide direct information on the number of adult migrants, it is used only to estimate the intraprovincial migration of children aged 0 to 17 years old. Unlike interprovincial migration estimation methods, which use adjustments and modelling based on children’s migration to estimate migration for adults aged 18 and older, intraprovincial migration estimates do not use these methods, as some small subprovincial areas often have data that are too limited.

Intraprovincial migration of children

Given that the T1FF is produced annually and is not available when preliminary estimates are being produced, preliminary estimates of intraprovincial migration of children aged 0 to 17 years old are based on monthly microdata from CCB administrative files, from which the number of child migrants can be extracted. The data can be used to derive information on the region (CD, CMA, CA) of usual of residence of children registered in the CCB program. Therefore, annual migration of children can be estimated by comparing two CCB microdata files.

The estimation of intraprovincial migration of children involves two adjustment factors. The first factor reflects the CCB program's coverage: the ratio of the number of children as estimated by the Demographic Estimates Program, to the number of children who are registered to the CCB program, for each region. The second factor, which corrects for any biases resulting from the differential propensity to migrate between children who are registered to the CCB program and all children, is obtained by comparing the intraprovincial out-migration rates of children who are registered to the CCB program with the out-migration rates for all children (aged 0 to 17). The adjustment factor is calculated for each province and territory and is based on the two last available years of the T1FF.

A matrix is used to represent intraprovincial migration between regions of origin (denoted by m) and regions of destination (denoted by n). Each item (m,n) of the matrix represents both the number of out-migrants from region of origin m and the number of in-migrants to destination region n.

The formula used to estimate each item (m,n) of the matrix for the intraprovincial migration of children is as follows:

Equation 11.1:

M m,n 0−17 = M m,n CCB 0−17 × 1 ℜ m CCB × G j MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaaSraaSqaai aad2gacaGGSaGaamOBaaqabaGccaWGnbWaaWbaaSqabeaacaaIWaGa eyOeI0IaaGymaiaaiEdaaaGccqGH9aqpdaqhbaWcbaGaamyBaiaacY cacaWGUbaabaGaam4qaiaadoeacaWGcbaaaOGaamytamaaCaaaleqa baGaaGimaiabgkHiTiaaigdacaaI3aaaaOGaey41aq7aaSaaaeaaca aIXaaabaWaa0raaSqaaiaad2gaaeaacaWGdbGaam4qaiaadkeaaaGc cqGHCeIWaaGaey41aq7aaSraaSqaaiaadQgaaeqaaOGaam4raaaa@534A@

where

M m,n 0−17 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaa0raaSqaai aad2gacaGGSaGaamOBaaqaaaaakiaad2eadaqhaaWcbaaabaGaaGim aiabgkHiTiaaigdacaaI3aaaaaaa@3CF4@

=

preliminary estimated number of children migrating from region of origin m to destination region n;

M m,n CCB 0−17 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaa0raaSqaai aad2gacaGGSaGaamOBaaqaaiaadoeacaWGdbGaamOqaaaakiaad2ea daahaaWcbeqaaiaaicdacqGHsislcaaIXaGaaG4naaaaaaa@3F4B@

=

number of children in the CCB database migrating from region of origin m to destination region n;

ℜ m CCB MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaa0raaSqaai aad2gaaeaacaWGdbGaam4qaiaadkeaaaGccqGHCeIWaaa@3B11@

=

coverage rate of the CCB program for the region of origin m;

G j MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaaSraaSqaai aadQgaaeqaaOGaam4raaaa@37F7@

=

adjustment factor for differential migration propensity among children for the corresponding province or territory of origin j.

The equation above includes the adjustments for incomplete coverage of CCB-children who are registered to the CCB program (Equation 11.2) and for the differences in the propensities of this group to migrate as compared to all children (Equation 11.3).

The coverage rates are calculated as follows:

For each region m,

Equation 11.2:

ℜ m CCB =[ P m CCB 0−17 P m Dem 0−17 ] MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaa0raaSqaai aad2gaaeaacaWGdbGaam4qaiaadkeaaaGccqGHCeIWcqGH9aqpdaWa daqaamaalaaabaWaa0raaSqaaiaad2gaaeaacaWGdbGaam4qaiaadk eaaaGccaWGqbWaaWbaaSqabeaacaaIWaGaeyOeI0IaaGymaiaaiEda aaaakeaadaqhbaWcbaGaamyBaaqaaiaadseacaWGLbGaamyBaaaaki aadcfadaahaaWcbeqaaiaaicdacqGHsislcaaIXaGaaG4naaaaaaaa kiaawUfacaGLDbaaaaa@4DC7@

where

P m CCB 0−17 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaa0raaSqaai aad2gaaeaacaWGdbGaam4qaiaadkeaaaGccaWGqbWaaWbaaSqabeaa caaIWaGaeyOeI0IaaGymaiaaiEdaaaaaaa@3DAB@

=

number of children in region m on the basis of CCB data;

P m Dem 0−17 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaa0raaSqaai aad2gaaeaacaWGebGaamyzaiaad2gaaaGccaWGqbWaaWbaaSqabeaa caaIWaGaeyOeI0IaaGymaiaaiEdaaaaaaa@3DF9@

=

number of children in region m according to the population of the Demographic Estimates Program.

The differential migration propensity is based on a set of Gj factors. Using tax data, the Gj factors are obtained by dividing the intraprovincial out-migration rates for all children by the out-migration rates of children who are registered to the CCB program, as follows:

For each region:

Equation 11.3:

G j =[ R j TIFF ate_ M 0−17 R j CCB ate_ M 0−17 ]= [ M j TIFF 0−17 P j TIFF 0−17 ] [ M j CCB 0−17 P j CCB 0−17 ] MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaaSraaSqaai aadQgaaeqaaOGaam4raiabg2da9maadmaabaWaaSaaaeaadaqhbaWc baGaamOAaaqaaiaadsfacaWGjbGaamOraiaadAeaaaGccaWGsbGaam yyaiaadshacaWGLbGaai4xaiaad2eadaahaaWcbeqaaiaaicdacqGH sislcaaIXaGaaG4naaaaaOqaamaaDeaaleaacaWGQbaabaGaam4qai aadoeacaWGcbaaaOGaamOuaiaadggacaWG0bGaamyzaiaac+facaWG nbWaaWbaaSqabeaacaaIWaGaeyOeI0IaaGymaiaaiEdaaaaaaaGcca GLBbGaayzxaaGaeyypa0ZaaSaaaeaadaWadaqaamaalaaabaWaa0ra aSqaaiaadQgaaeaacaWGubGaamysaiaadAeacaWGgbaaaOGaamytam aaCaaaleqabaGaaGimaiabgkHiTiaaigdacaaI3aaaaaGcbaWaa0ra aSqaaiaadQgaaeaacaWGubGaamysaiaadAeacaWGgbaaaOGaamiuam aaCaaaleqabaGaaGimaiabgkHiTiaaigdacaaI3aaaaaaaaOGaay5w aiaaw2faaaqaamaadmaabaWaaSaaaeaadaqhbaWcbaGaamOAaaqaai aadoeacaWGdbGaamOqaaaakiaad2eadaahaaWcbeqaaiaaicdacqGH sislcaaIXaGaaG4naaaaaOqaamaaDeaaleaacaWGQbaabaGaam4qai aadoeacaWGcbaaaOGaamiuamaaCaaaleqabaGaaGimaiabgkHiTiaa igdacaaI3aaaaaaaaOGaay5waiaaw2faaaaaaaa@79D3@

where

R j TIFF ate_ M 0−17 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaa0raaSqaai aadQgaaeaacaWGubGaamysaiaadAeacaWGgbaaaOGaamOuaiaadgga caWG0bGaamyzaiaac+facaWGnbWaaWbaaSqabeaacaaIWaGaeyOeI0 IaaGymaiaaiEdaaaaaaa@430E@

=

intraprovincial out-migration rate of all children from province or territory of origin j, based on T1FF;

R j CCB ate_ M 0−17 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaa0raaSqaai aadQgaaeaacaWGdbGaam4qaiaadkeaaaGccaWGsbGaamyyaiaadsha caWGLbGaai4xaiaad2eadaahaaWcbeqaaiaaicdacqGHsislcaaIXa GaaG4naaaaaaa@4228@

=

intraprovincial out-migration rate of children who are registered to the CCB program from province or territory of origin j;

M j TIFF 0−17 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaa0raaSqaai aadQgaaeaacaWGubGaamysaiaadAeacaWGgbaaaOGaamytamaaCaaa leqabaGaaGimaiabgkHiTiaaigdacaaI3aaaaaaa@3E8B@

=

number of total out-migrant children from province or territory of origin j, based on T1FF;

P j TIFF 0−17 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaa0raaSqaai aadQgaaeaacaWGubGaamysaiaadAeacaWGgbaaaOGaamiuamaaCaaa leqabaGaaGimaiabgkHiTiaaigdacaaI3aaaaaaa@3E8E@

=

number of children from province or territory j based on T1FF;

M j CCB 0−17 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaa0raaSqaai aadQgaaeaacaWGdbGaam4qaiaadkeaaaGccaWGnbWaaWbaaSqabeaa caaIWaGaeyOeI0IaaGymaiaaiEdaaaaaaa@3DA5@

=

number of out-migrant children who are registered to the CCB program from province or territory j;

P j CCB 0−17 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaa0raaSqaai aadQgaaeaacaWGdbGaam4qaiaadkeaaaGccaWGqbWaaWbaaSqabeaa caaIWaGaeyOeI0IaaGymaiaaiEdaaaaaaa@3DA8@

=

number of children who are registered to the CCB program from province or territory j.

The Gj factor will equal one if the migration rate of children who are registered to the CCB program and the migration rate of all children are identical. A value of Gj that is greater (or less) than one indicates that the propensity to migrate of children who are registered to the CCB program is less (or greater) than that of all children.

The Gj factors are calculated in a similar fashion between interprovincial migration and intraprovincial migration. However, the values will be different given that the respective migration estimates are used to derive the factors (i.e. interprovincial vs. intraprovincial).

Intraprovincial migration of adults

Preliminary estimates of adults migrating from one region to another within the same province or territory are obtained by modelling rates based on previous year’s final migration data as well as on population estimates from the Demographic Estimates Program.

Equation 11.4:

M m,n y 18+ = M m,n y−1 18+ P j y−1 18+ × P j y 18+ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaaSraaSqaai aad2gacaGGSaGaamOBaaqabaGccaWGnbWaa0baaSqaaiaadMhaaeaa caaIXaGaaGioaiabgUcaRaaakiabg2da9maalaaabaWaaSraaSqaai aad2gacaGGSaGaamOBaaqabaGccaWGnbWaa0baaSqaaiaadMhacqGH sislcaaIXaaabaGaaGymaiaaiIdacqGHRaWkaaaakeaadaWgbaWcba GaamOAaaqabaGccaWGqbWaa0baaSqaaiaadMhacqGHsislcaaIXaaa baGaaGymaiaaiIdacqGHRaWkaaaaaOGaey41aq7aaSraaSqaaiaadQ gaaeqaaOGaamiuamaaDaaaleaacaWG5baabaGaaGymaiaaiIdacqGH RaWkaaaaaa@55FA@

where

M m,n y 18+ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaaSraaSqaai aad2gacaGGSaGaamOBaaqabaGccaWGnbWaa0baaSqaaiaadMhaaeaa caaIXaGaaGioaiabgUcaRaaaaaa@3D2D@

=

preliminary estimated number of adults migrating from region of origin m to destination region n, at reference year y;

M m,n y−1 18+ P j y−1 18+ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaaSaaaeaada WgbaWcbaGaamyBaiaacYcacaWGUbaabeaakiaad2eadaqhaaWcbaGa amyEaiabgkHiTiaaigdaaeaacaaIXaGaaGioaiabgUcaRaaaaOqaam aaBeaaleaacaWGQbaabeaakiaadcfadaqhaaWcbaGaamyEaiabgkHi TiaaigdaaeaacaaIXaGaaGioaiabgUcaRaaaaaaaaa@461C@

=

final estimated number of adult migrants from region of origin m to destination region n, divided by the number of adults according to the population of the Demographic Estimates Program from corresponding province or territory j, at reference year y-1;

P j y 18+ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaaSraaSqaai aadQgaaeqaaOGaamiuamaaDaaaleaacaWG5baabaGaaGymaiaaiIda cqGHRaWkaaaaaa@3B8A@

=

number of adults according to the population of the Demographic Estimates Program in province or territory of origin j, at the reference year y.

Finally, after estimates for the numbers of intraprovincial child and adult migrants have been separately calculated by region of origin m and destination region n, the estimates for the numbers of intraprovincial total migrants are obtained by adding the numbers of intraprovincial child and adult migrants as follows:

For each region m,

Equation 11.5:

M m,n = M m,n 0−17 + M m,n 18+ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaaSraaSqaai aad2gacaGGSaGaamOBaaqabaGccaWGnbGaeyypa0ZaaSraaSqaaiaa d2gacaGGSaGaamOBaaqabaGccaWGnbWaaWbaaSqabeaacaaIWaGaey OeI0IaaGymaiaaiEdaaaGccqGHRaWkdaWgbaWcbaGaamyBaiaacYca caWGUbaabeaakiaad2eadaahaaWcbeqaaiaaigdacaaI4aGaey4kaS caaaaa@48AD@

where

M m,n MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaaSraaSqaai aad2gacaGGSaGaamOBaaqabaGccaWGnbaaaa@39A3@

=

preliminary estimated number of total migrants from region of origin m to destination region n, at reference year y.

For interprovincial migration by economic regions (ER), the preliminary estimates are produced by aggregating CD totals for each corresponding ER. The estimates are then calibrated to ensure consistency.

Preliminary intraprovincial migration estimates by age and gender

To produce the preliminary intraprovincial migration estimates by age and gender at the subprovincial level, the estimates for the number of child migrants ( M m,n 0−17 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaa0raaSqaai aad2gacaGGSaGaamOBaaqaaaaakiaad2eadaqhaaWcbaaabaGaaGim aiabgkHiTiaaigdacaaI3aaaaaaa@3CF4@ ) from equation 11.1 are used, which are produced by single year of age using the CCB data. Preliminary estimates of adult migrants by age and gender are obtained by breaking down the estimate of their total number ( M m,n 18+ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiVu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrFfpeea0xe9Lq=Jc9 vqaqpepm0xbba9pwe9Q8fs0=yqaqpepae9pg0FirpepeKkFr0xfr=x fr=xb9adbiqaceGaciGaciaabiqacmGabiabcaGcbaWaaSraaSqaai aad2gacaGGSaGaamOBaaqabaGccaWGnbWaa0baaSqaaaqaaiaaigda caaI4aGaey4kaScaaaaa@3C2F@ ) using the previous year's final age and gender distribution. A simple Gaussian smoothing method is then applied to across the distribution by single year of age. This procedure has been used for estimates from 2021/2022 onwards.Note 2

Limitations to preliminary intraprovincial migration estimates

The adjustments for coverage as well as for migration propensity for the CCB implies some assumptions in the estimation. The first is that the migration pattern of children not captured in the CCB is the same as those that are captured. The other assumption is that the differential propensity of migration is the same as the previous year. Although both assumptions are considered as reasonable, it is possible for these migration pattern and the propensity to be different.

The migration of adults is derived using rates based on previous year’s final data. It is certainly possible for migrations of adults to change abruptly from one year to the next. These limitations are no longer relevant once the T1FF data becomes available, with the production of final estimates of intraprovincial migration for a given year.



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© His Majesty the King in Right of Canada as represented by the Minister of Industry, 2026

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Catalogue no. 91-528-X

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Table of contents

Acknowledgements
Foreword
Introduction
Chapter 1 Population estimation methods – Canada, provinces and territories
Chapter 2 Population estimation methods, subprovincial areas
Chapter 3 Base population
Chapter 4 Births
Chapter 5 Deaths
Chapter 6 Immigrants
Chapter 7 Non-permanent residents
Chapter 8 Emigrants
Chapter 9 Returning emigrants
Chapter 10 Interprovincial migration
Chapter 11 Intraprovincial migration
Chapter 12 Estimates of census families, economic entities and households
Chapter 13 Quality of Population Estimates
Glossary

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