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    Culture, Tourism and the Centre for Education Statistics

    Delaying Post-secondary Education: Who Delays and for How Long?

    Section 4: Results

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    4.1 Median length of time between high school graduation and starting post-secondary education

    The first step in addressing the issue of timing between high school graduation and the start of the first PSE program is to examine the median times between these two events. The pace and timing is not uniform across all individuals and subgroups of individuals and the median 'failure' times (defined as the median length of time between high school graduation and the start of first PSE ) derived from life table analyses are very useful for gaining an overall picture of the issue. Table 1 presents the median failure times for the entire sample and separately by the covariates used in the later analysis.

    Table 1 Median length of time between high school graduation and start of first post-secondary education

    On average, the entire sample of high school graduates started their first PSE program no later than four months after leaving high school. This was also evident in Chart 1 as well. In terms of pertinent demographic characteristics, males, Aboriginal off-reserve youth and English speakers have much higher median delay times than others. The difference is especially dramatic for Aboriginal youth and Anglophones; these groups have, on average, a median delay time of about 15 months compared to their non-Aboriginal and non-Anglophone counterparts who waited only about 3 months to begin PSE.

    Much of the trend observed in Quebec and the differences between Francophones and Anglophones can likely be attributed to the unique nature of their educational system. In Quebec, elementary/secondary education consists of 11 years of schooling. Students then typically enter a CEGEP which provides them with either a college-level education or, for students planning to go to university, a two-year pre-university program.

    Geographic location such as province of high school and whether the youth lived in an area of a smaller population size at age 18 to 20 also appear to matter. For instance, in general, youth who attended high school in the Atlantic provinces or Quebec waited about 3 months to start PSE , while for youth in Ontario and the Western provinces, the wait time was much longer, at around 14 months. Youth not living in larger population centres also delayed the start of PSE for a longer period of time than their counterparts in larger population centres, at 8 months versus 3 months.

    The family of origin exerts tremendous influence on young adults and their decision to complete high school and continue on to PSE. Each of the four indicators included appear to independently affect the timing of the beginning of PSE. For instance, youth with parents who were PSE graduates themselves tended to go immediately on to PSE, while those with parents with less education waited, on average, at least 10 months. Even more important than the actual level of parental education, however, is the importance parents convey to their children of having a post-secondary education. For instance, the children of parents who felt this was very important were more likely to start PSE immediately after completing high school, whereas the median number of months waited by youth with parents who felt it was not important at all was more than 3 years (44 months).

    At the same time, parental human capital may not be as effective in the absence of good parent-child communication. This appears to be occurring with this cohort of youth, in that high school graduates who spoke very infrequently or never with their parents about their future waited about 15 months, on average, to go to PSE. However, the analysis suggests that having a moderate amount of communication on this issue is crucial. Youth who spoke with their parents about their future educational plans a few times a year to a few times a week tended to go immediately to PSE following high school graduation, while those who had daily communications with their parents about the issue waited about 9 months. It may be that 'daily' communication is capturing those relationships where parents feel their adolescents need extra persuasion about the merits of PSE, which may be reflected in the longer median gap time. Last, as per a resource dilution hypothesis, the more siblings one has, the longer the gap between high school graduation and start of first PSE enrolment.

    Four measures were used to tap into academic performance and commitment to education. Analyzing median time to first PSE by levels of these variables demonstrates the strong relationship each has with respect to the length of the gap between leaving high school and starting PSE. For example, with regard to marks in the last year of high school, respondents who had a high academic average did not delay PSE at all, while respondents with medium level marks waited about 19 months and those with low marks waited close to 5 years (59 months) to begin PSE. The impact of skipping/cutting classes also has an impact on the length of the gap, albeit not as strong as marks. Youth who skipped high school classes on average more than once a week had a median gap time of 15 months, compared to a median gap of 3 months for youth who had never skipped classes. A second indicator measuring commitment to education is the frequency of participation in school-related extracurricular activities, assessed on a weekly basis. While many of these activities may not be directly related to academics, they do serve as an indication that the youth is committed to being involved in activities organized by the school. Table 1 reveals that youth who did not partake in any extracurricular school activities had a median delay time much higher than youth who had participated, at 15 months versus 3 months. Last, in terms of educational aspirations beyond high school, students who wanted higher levels of education did not delay PSE attendance at all; in contrast, youth who aspired to only high school or less waited, on average, close to 80 months.

    At the same time as discussing factors that enhance the probability of pursuing PSE after high school, we must also be cognizant of the factors that impede it. Several such indicators are used in this paper. First, in line with past research, the present results also suggest that working a lot in high school (more than 20 hours a week) greatly curtails the pace with which high school graduates start PSE. These individuals waited, on average, about 15 months to start PSE, in contrast to the median time of 3 months for youth who worked less. Time spent in extracurricular activities external to school highlights a somewhat different relationship than those organized within school: youth who spent no hours or 8 or more per week appeared to delay the start of PSE more than youth who took part in a moderate amount of non-school extracurricular activities. Thus, there is some initial evidence to suggest that not all extracurricular activities are indicative of an early start to PSE following high school graduation.

    Next, the role of early family responsibilities on the median number of months between high school graduation and start of PSE is analyzed. Youth who were responsible for a child before their 18th birthday delayed the start of PSE by close to 2 years, while youth without this responsibility tended to go to PSE immediately. The influence of friends on educational decisions is quite strong; youth tend to follow a similar pattern to their close friends. The pattern holds in these data as well: youth with most close friends who decided to go to PSE went within 3 months of high school graduation; however, if none or very few of their close friends planned to go, the median wait time was 15 months. Last, there is a well-established link between residential mobility and educational attainment — typically, the more times a student moves, the less likely he or she is to finish high school and the lower their chances of going to PSE. The same pattern is observed here as well with regard to timing — youth who attended one high school only tended to go to PSE immediately after high school graduation, while the median delay time increased each time the student moved to another school, peaking at 15 months if they attended 4 or more different high schools.

    The last set of barriers to education directly addresses these obstacles via the question 'Is there anything standing in your way of going as far in school as you would like?' Four potential barriers are included in this paper: finances, marks, wanting to work, and caring for children. Each of these barriers increases the median delay time past the 4 month median observed for the total sample: those who listed finances as an impediment had a median delay time of 9 months; concerns about marks led to a delay time of 14 months; wanting to work led to a delay of 15 months; while youth who said that caring for children would affect their educational aspirations had a median delay time of 16 months.

    4.2 Rate of entry to first post-secondary enrolment

    Table 2 presents the parameter estimates predicting the 'risk' of entry into a first PSE program prior to age 28 for individuals who had graduated from high school. Five separate models are estimated. Model 1 includes only variables measuring demographic characteristics and geographic location. Model 2 adds pertinent family background factors to indicators from Model 1. Model 3 adds to Model 1 measures related to academic performance and commitment to the education system, and Model 4 adds potential barriers to high school completion and PSE attendance. Finally, in the full Model (Model 5) all measures are included. The estimates are presented as hazard ratios (eß) for ease of interpretation. All results are reported with respect to the monthly chance of starting a first PSE program.

    Table 2 Parameter estimates (hazard ratios) on the rate of entry into first post-secondary program, Cox Regression Models

    4.2.1 The impact of demographic characteristics and geographic location on time to first post-secondary education

    Female high school graduates start their first PSE program at a faster pace than males. Results from Model 1 show that being a female high school graduate increased the monthly chance of starting a first PSE program by a factor of 1.2047, or by 20.5%. While this effect is diminished in Model 5 after all other factors have been considered, it remains very significant. Aboriginal youth, in contrast, had a decreased monthly chance of starting PSE after completing high school by about 20%, as compared to non-Aboriginal youth. However, this effect is completely removed in Model 5 after all other factors are included. In terms of mother tongue, speakers of a non-official language were more likely than English speakers to start PSE (hazard ratio of 1.3035 in Model 1). This effect remains even in Model 5. Province of high school also elicits a strong impact on the timing of first PSE. Using Ontario as the reference category, it is noted in Model 1 that youth who attended high school in the Atlantic Provinces and Quebec had a 13% and 72% greater monthly chance, respectively, of starting PSE, while youth from the West had 12% less chance of this occurring. This latter effect is removed in Model 5, however, when all factors are included. Last, high school graduates from larger population centres areas went on to PSE at a quicker pace than their rural counterparts, an effect which mostly disappears by the final model.

    4.2.2 The impact of family background

    Four indicators related to the influence of the family were included in the analysis. Each exerts some influence on the length of the gap between high school completion and the beginning of PSE for high school graduates. Model 2 reveals that youth with more highly educated parents began PSE faster than other youth, especially when comparing parents with university degrees to parents with less than high school. Children of PSE graduates had about a 43% greater monthly chance of starting PSE than youth whose parents had less than high school (Hazard ratio of 1.4279). Not only is the level of parental education important, but equally vital, if not more so, is the importance parents place on their child's education. For example, for each one-point increase on the scale rating the importance that parents place on their children obtaining more than high school, youth have an increased monthly chance of starting PSE by almost 44%. This effect is reduced, yet still significant, in Model 5.

    Similarly, the amount of communication that parents and young adults have regarding future career and educational paths was found to matter as well. A medium amount of communication was used as the reference category (talked a few times a month about future educational plans). Results from Table 2, Model 2 suggest that talking less frequently than this or a great deal more than this, reduces the chances of having a shorter gap between high school and PSE studies. For instance, students and their parents who talked about the future on a daily basis saw their monthly chances of starting PSE reduced by about 16%, compared to youth and parents who only talked a few times a month about their future plans. This effect remains consistent, albeit slightly weaker in the full model. Interestingly, never talking about future and career options had no significant effect on the pace with which high school graduates went on to PSE. In fact, counter intuitively, the effect, while not significant is positive. Last, number of siblings was included as a control for resource dilution in the household. This indicator is necessary because YITS-Cohort B does not have any information on the financial situation of the family of origin. The only socioeconomic indicator is parental education; therefore, number of siblings acts as a proxy for fewer resources being available to youth from larger families. The results show that, even in the full model, having a greater number of siblings reduces the chances of continuing on to PSE; each additional sibling reduces the monthly chance of starting a first PSE program by a factor of 0.9731, or by 2.7% (1-0.9731).

    4.2.3 The impact of academic performance and commitment to education

    The sole variable available in YITS-Cohort B that directly measures academic performance is self-reported grade-point average (GPA) in the last year of high school. It is a subjective measure, which could be inflated (Maxwell and Lopus 1994); however, it does correlate highly with other indicators that signify higher academic achievement (e.g., attendance at university). Using a GPA of 70% to 79% as the reference category, we observe that high school graduates with a GPA of 80% to 100% had an increased chance of attending PSE, while those whose marks were lower experience a decreased chance of attending PSE. At the same time, the monthly chance of attending PSE decreased by close to 5% as the frequency of skipping classes increased. These two effects remain robust across all models.

    The results for amount of time spent on school-based extracurricular activities suggests that partaking in a moderate amount (1 to 3 hours per week) is predictive of a greater chance of attending PSE compared to taking part in no hours at all. Furthermore, as the number of hours spent in school-based extracurricular activities increased, so too did the chances that high school graduates would go on to PSE more quickly. For example, high school graduates who spent 8 or more hours per week in these activities increased their chance of PSE attendance by 13% in each month, compared to high school graduates who only spent 1 to 3 hours per week in school-based extracurricular activities.

    The final measure of commitment to education is based on a question that asked the young adults about their academic aspirations. High school graduates who said they wanted a bachelor's degree or higher had a greater monthly chance of attending PSE than any other desired level of schooling, including college. In fact, results from Model 3 suggest that aspiring to a college/trade or other type of diploma decreases the chance of PSE attendance by almost 40% (1-0.625), compared to wanting a bachelor's degree or higher. Not surprisingly, the largest decline in the chance of PSE attendance is observed for high school graduates who only desired a high diploma or less: these individuals had almost a 70% less chance each month (1-0.3046) of attending PSE than youth who stated they wanted a bachelor's degree.

    4.2.4 Potential barriers to high school completion and post-secondary education attendance

    The final six sets of indicators tap into factors that deter high school completion as well as eventual PSE attendance. First, the influence of working in a paid job during the school year is considered. When compared with not working at all, the only significant difference is found for working more than 20 hours a week. These individuals had about a 20% less chance per month of attending PSE than their counterparts who did not work at all. This result remains robust in all models.

    In the previous section, school extracurricular activities were utilized as an indicator tapping into greater school commitment; however, the question remains as to whether activities external to school have a similar impact on the pace with which high school graduates go on to PSE. To address this question, a measure of number of hours spent per week in non-school extracurricular activities in the last year of high school is included. Similar to before, 1 to 3 hours of such activity is the reference category. A somewhat different relationship is found: young adults who spent 8 or more hours per week on these activities external to school saw their monthly chance of going to PSE diminished by about 10%. Thus, time spent doing activities away from school may be indicating a preference for non-academic pursuits and this in turn affects the pace with which high school graduates go on to further studies.

    During high school, close friends can have a great deal of influence on decisions related to future educational paths. The results from Table 2, Model 4 confirm this. High school graduates who said that only some, few or none of their close friends were planning on going to PSE had almost 40% less chance (1-0.6193) each month of going to PSE than their counterparts with most or all friends going to PSE. Equally important during the high school years is the instability caused by changing schools. A great deal of past work has found that changing schools disrupts important networks, which can have lasting effects. The results here confirm this as well: the monthly chance of PSE attendance declines by over 10% (1-0.8838) with each new high school attended, a result that remains relatively robust even in the full model.

    The final set of barriers to high school completion and PSE attendance are based on youth responses to the question: 'Is there anything standing in your way of going as far in school as you would like?' High school graduates who said that caring for children was a barrier had the largest hazard ratio — these individuals saw their monthly chance of PSE attendance decrease by close to 40% (1-0.6372) in Model 4 (the effect was weakened, however by Model 5). Wanting to work also decreased the chance of PSE attendance; however, this effect was completely removed in Model 5 once all other factors were included. At the same time, the negative effects of finances and marks remain robust and strong across all models. Interestingly, the dummy variable for whether the respondent had a child for whom they were responsible prior to age 18 was not significant in either Model 4 or 5.1

    Notes

    1. In earlier models (not shown) this dummy variable was removed by the addition of family factors in Model 2; likely because of the strong link between the family of origin, especially SES, and the risk of having a teen birth (Furstenberg 2003).
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