Section 1: Introduction

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High school graduation and eventual post-secondary (PSE) attendance are the norm among Canadian youth. Recent evidence suggests that the majority of Canadian youth leave high school with a diploma. Close to 80% obtain their high school diploma by age 18 to 20, with this share increasing to over 90% by age 26 to 28. Moreover, by age 18 to 20, about 55% of young adults are enrolled in some form of post-secondary education, with this share increasing to 81% by age 26 to 28 (Shaienks and Gluszynski 2009).

A typical and direct path to PSE involves high school graduates completing high school in May or June of any given year and then entering PSE in September, a gap of about 4 months or less. These individuals, for one reason or another, likely have made their decision to go directly to PSE during the last couple of years of high school. For these young adults, the path is straightforward: finish high school and immediately continue with education prior to entering the work force. These students may be more academically focused, they may lack other opportunities (for paid work, volunteer work, or travel) or they may simply be under pressure by family and friends to continue with their education without delay. The fear among many parents and students is that the more time spent out of school, the less chance of ever starting PSE. In fact, some recent work from the United States suggests that even if delayers do return, they are less likely to eventually graduate with a bachelor's degree (Bozick and De Luca 2005). Yet, there is mixed empirical evidence on the benefits that time away from school may confer on young adults. Some suggest positive labour market outcomes (Ferrer and Menendez 2009), while others find the relationship to labour market outcomes more complex, depending on the specific PSE path followed (Hango 2010).

It may be premature, however, to discuss the effects of taking time off between high school and PSE on later outcomes without knowing the extent of the delay (measured by median delay times) and the important correlates associated with the timing of the delay. Our knowledge on this topic is limited in Canada. For instance, do we define a 'gap year' similar to work from the United Kingdom? Jones (2004: 24) defined a 'gap year' in the United Kingdom as "any period of time between 3 and 24 months which an individual takes 'out' from formal education, training or the workplace, and where the time out sits in the context of a longer career trajectory." The definition does not conform to a strict 12-month calendar in order to take into account heterogeneity and flexibility of individuals wanting to re-start school at different points in the calendar year. For this reason, Jones (2004) suggests that perhaps a better term would be 'gap period' not 'gap year.' Heath's (2007) definition of a gap year in the UK is more precisely defined as 15 months. Or do we define time out of school in similar terms to work from the United States? Bozick and DeLuca (2005) for instance define 'on-time' enrolment in PSE as being any student who starts PSE within seven months of graduating from high school, while starting past seven months is considered to be 'delayed' enrolment. In Canada, few studies have specifically examined this issue. Of the ones that have, the range of defining 'delayed' attendance at PSE has ranged from 4 months (see Hango and de Broucker 2007; Hango 2010) to one year (see Ferrer and Menendez 2009; and Tomkowicz and Bushnik 2003).

The current paper attempts to bolster our knowledge on the issue of taking time away from school by focusing exclusively on measuring median delay times between high school graduation and starting a first PSE program and on identifying the factors either speeding up or slowing down this transition. The specific type of PSE is not considered in this paper, but rather the first PSE program of any type is used. We know from prior work that outcomes vary significantly by PSE type, and also that universities, colleges, and other types of degree/diploma-granting institutions may have different requirements for entry. However, the focus on any PSE experience frees us from making any judgements or conclusions based on the type of institution a young adult may attend. The principal concern therefore is to attempt to model the transition between high school and the post-secondary education system so that we can address concerns about youth mis-timing their education or disengaging from the education system entirely. Additional concerns regarding outcomes related to PSE graduation or the labour market are important, but deserve special attention and are left for future work.

The longitudinal Youth in Transition Survey (YITS) provides an ideal dataset for this analysis since it tracks the same group of youth as they leave high school and transition into young adulthood. The data used here culminate at a final age of 26 to 28 in 2008, ages at which the majority of Canadian youth have finished high school and have either re-entered the post-secondary system or are contemplating doing so. The current study focuses on high school graduates, a necessary restriction so that time to first PSE can be measured. Admittedly this restriction leaves out those young adults who have not graduated from high school, a group that is very vulnerable for later socioeconomic difficulties (Chen and Kaplan 2003; de Broucker 2005).¹ However, a strength of the current paper is that youth are followed until their mid-to late 20s, allowing for youth who may have ever dropped out of high school to have gone back and completed their high school diplomas.

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Notes

1. Approximately 5% of the sample of 9,946 left high school without graduating and had not returned to complete their high school diploma by December 2007.