Section 3 – Results at the provincial and territorial levels, 2018 to 2043
Yukon

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  • Projection scenarios show that the population of Yukon would increase over the next 25 years. By 2043, Yukon’s population would be between 44,800 (scenario LG) and 60,700 (scenario M5), compared to 40,500 in 2018.
  • Future population growth in Yukon depends largely on international migration and, to a lesser extent, positive net interprovincial migration in certain scenarios (M3, M4 and M5).
  • Similar to the rest of the territories, natural increase is projected to remain positive for Yukon over the projection period in all scenarios. However, rates of natural increase are comparatively lower in Yukon than in the other two territories, owing mainly to its relatively lower fertility and older age structure.
  • The median age of the population of Yukon is projected to increase in all scenarios over the next 25 years. From 38.9 years in 2018, it would reach between 40.0 years (scenario SA) and 43.7 years (scenario FA) in 2043. The proportion of the population aged 65 and over would increase from 11.8% in 2018 to between 16.6% (scenario SA) and 20.6% (scenarios M3 and FA) by 2043.

Figure 3-21 Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, Yukon

Description for Figure 3.21 
Data table for Figure 3.21
Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, Yukon

Table summary
This table displays the results of Population. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Historic, Projected, Low-growth scenario (LG), Medium-growth scenarios, High-growth scenario (HG), M1, M2 and M3, calculated using in thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year Historic Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG) Medium-growth scenarios High-growth scenario (HG)
M1 M2 M5
in thousands
1994 29.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1995 30.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1996 31.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1997 31.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1998 31.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1999 30.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2000 30.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2001 30.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2002 30.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2003 30.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2004 31.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2005 31.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2006 32.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2007 32.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2008 33.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2009 33.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2010 34.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2011 35.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2012 36.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2013 36.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2014 37.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2015 37.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2016 38.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2017 39.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2018 40.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2019 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 40.8 40.9 40.8 41.3 41.0
2020 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 41.2 41.3 41.1 42.1 41.5
2021 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 41.5 41.8 41.4 42.9 42.1
2022 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 41.8 42.2 41.7 43.8 42.6
2023 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42.2 42.6 42.0 44.6 43.2
2024 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42.5 43.1 42.3 45.4 43.7
2025 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 42.7 43.5 42.6 46.3 44.3
2026 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43.0 43.9 42.9 47.1 44.9
2027 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43.2 44.3 43.2 47.9 45.4
2028 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43.5 44.6 43.4 48.7 46.0
2029 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43.7 45.0 43.7 49.5 46.5
2030 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 43.8 45.4 43.9 50.3 47.1
2031 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.0 45.7 44.1 51.2 47.6
2032 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.2 46.0 44.3 52.0 48.2
2033 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.3 46.4 44.5 52.8 48.7
2034 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.4 46.7 44.6 53.6 49.2
2035 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.5 47.0 44.8 54.4 49.8
2036 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.6 47.3 45.0 55.2 50.3
2037 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.7 47.6 45.1 56.0 50.9
2038 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.7 47.8 45.2 56.8 51.4
2039 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.7 48.1 45.3 57.5 51.9
2040 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.8 48.3 45.5 58.3 52.5
2041 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.8 48.6 45.6 59.1 53.0
2042 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.8 48.8 45.7 59.9 53.5
2043 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 44.8 49.1 45.8 60.7 54.1

Table 3.16
Decomposition of annual crude growth rates, historic (1977/1978 to 2017/2018) and projected (2022/2023 to 2042/2043) according to the low-growth (LG), medium-growth (M1-M5), high-growth (HG), slow-aging (SA) and fast-aging (FA) scenarios, Yukon
Table summary
This table displays the results of Decomposition of annual crude growth rates. The information is grouped by Scenario / Period (appearing as row headers), Total growth, Natural increase, Net international migration, Net interprovincial migration, Total, Births, Deaths, Immigration, Net emigration, Net non-permanent residents, In-migration and Out-migration, calculated using crude rate per thousand units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Scenario / Period Total growth Natural increase Net international migration Net interprovincial migration
Total Births Deaths Total Immigration Net emigration Net non-permanent residents Total In-migration Out-migration
crude rate per thousand
Historic
1977/1978 27.9 15.5 19.9 4.3 0.7 2.8 2.1 0.0 11.6 124.7 113.0
1997/1998 -22.6 9.2 13.2 4.1 0.4 2.5 2.6 0.5 -32.2 47.2 79.4
2017/2018 21.4 5.4 11.3 5.9 10.8 6.6 1.9 6.1 5.2 42.5 37.3
Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG)
2022/2023 7.6 3.5 10.4 6.9 4.8 6.6 1.9 0.2 -0.7 45.3 46.0
2032/2033 3.0 0.8 9.4 8.6 4.4 6.3 1.9 0.0 -2.2 44.2 46.5
2042/2043 0.3 0.0 9.5 9.5 3.8 5.9 2.0 -0.1 -3.5 44.2 47.7
Medium-growth scenario (M1)
2022/2023 10.3 4.7 11.2 6.5 6.2 7.4 1.7 0.5 -0.7 45.4 46.1
2032/2033 7.0 3.0 10.5 7.5 6.2 7.7 1.6 0.1 -2.2 44.3 46.6
2042/2043 4.9 2.6 10.8 8.2 5.9 7.5 1.6 0.0 -3.5 44.4 47.9
Medium-growth scenario (M2)
2022/2023 7.5 4.3 10.9 6.6 6.4 7.5 1.7 0.5 -3.2 42.7 45.9
2032/2033 4.2 2.0 9.9 7.9 6.6 8.0 1.5 0.1 -4.4 41.6 46.0
2042/2043 2.2 1.2 10.2 9.0 6.5 8.1 1.5 -0.1 -5.5 41.6 47.1
Medium-growth scenario (M3)
2022/2023 13.5 4.2 10.8 6.6 6.2 7.3 1.6 0.5 3.1 41.4 38.3
2032/2033 9.5 1.7 9.4 7.7 6.0 7.4 1.5 0.1 1.8 40.7 38.9
2042/2043 6.7 1.0 9.6 8.7 5.6 7.1 1.5 0.0 0.2 40.9 40.8
Medium-growth scenario (M4)
2022/2023 17.4 4.4 11.0 6.6 6.0 7.2 1.7 0.5 6.9 37.7 30.7
2032/2033 13.6 2.3 9.9 7.7 5.5 7.0 1.6 0.1 5.8 36.6 30.8
2042/2043 11.4 1.4 10.1 8.7 4.8 6.4 1.6 0.0 5.2 36.5 31.3
Medium-growth scenario (M5)
2022/2023 19.1 4.5 11.1 6.6 5.9 7.2 1.7 0.5 8.7 37.5 28.8
2032/2033 15.4 2.4 10.1 7.8 5.3 6.8 1.6 0.1 7.7 36.6 28.8
2042/2043 13.4 1.4 10.3 8.8 4.5 6.1 1.6 0.0 7.5 36.5 29.0
High-growth scenario (HG)
2022/2023 13.0 6.0 12.1 6.1 7.8 8.2 1.5 1.1 -0.8 45.2 46.0
2032/2033 11.3 5.1 11.7 6.6 8.4 9.5 1.4 0.3 -2.2 44.3 46.5
2042/2043 10.1 4.9 12.2 7.3 8.5 9.9 1.4 0.0 -3.3 44.7 48.1
Slow-aging scenario (SA)
2022/2023 12.3 5.3 12.1 6.9 7.8 8.2 1.6 1.1 -0.7 45.3 46.0
2032/2033 10.2 3.8 11.8 8.0 8.4 9.4 1.4 0.3 -2.0 44.7 46.7
2042/2043 9.5 4.0 12.4 8.4 8.5 9.8 1.4 0.0 -3.1 45.4 48.4
Fast-aging scenario (FA)
2022/2023 8.4 4.2 10.4 6.2 4.8 6.6 1.9 0.2 -0.7 45.3 46.0
2032/2033 4.2 2.3 9.3 7.0 4.4 6.3 1.9 0.0 -2.4 43.9 46.3
2042/2043 1.0 1.0 9.3 8.3 3.9 5.9 1.9 -0.1 -3.9 43.4 47.3

Figure 3-22 Population (in relative value), historic (2018) and projected (2043) according to selected scenarios, Yukon

Description for Figure 3.22

This figure shows four overlapping population pyramids showing the age and sex structures of the 2018 and 2043 Yukon populations according to three scenarios. In 2018, the pyramid is represented by a solid grey colour, while the 2043 pyramids are represented by purple, blue and orange lines, each corresponding respectively to the slow-aging scenario (SA), the medium-growth scenario (M1) and the fast-aging scenario (FA). The counts by age and sex are expressed in relative values (per thousand) in relation to the total population.

The y-axis is in the middle of the figure, separating the pyramids in two and showing the ages from 0 to 100 years. Males are shown on the left side of the axis, and females are shown on the right side.

The x-axis shows the proportion of persons for each age, expressed per thousand, from 0 to 10, and this is the same for the left-handed and right-handed sides of the y-axis.

The shape of the 2018 population age pyramid is diverging from the typical pyramid shape. It looks more like a mushroom with a narrow base, two wider zones at ages 25 to 40 and at ages 50 to 70, and a pointed apex. The lines representing the age and sex structure of the 2043 population according to three scenarios form pyramids with a higher peak than 2018. The 2043 pyramids show that the proportion of the older population will grow compared to the younger ages in the coming decades, a consequence of the aging population structure projected.


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