Section 3 – Results at the provincial and territorial levels, 2018 to 2043
Prince Edward Island

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  • According to all projection scenarios, the population of Prince Edward Island would continue to grow during the next 25 years. Its annual percentage growth would be substantially larger than that of any other Atlantic province during the period. By 2043, the province’s population would reach between 177,800 (scenario LG) and 220,800 (scenario HG), compared to 153,200 in 2018. The demographic weight of the province within Canada is projected to remain stable in all scenarios (0.4%).
  • The projected international migratory increase in Prince Edward Island would be among the highest in the country, and serves as the main driver of population growth for the province in all scenarios.
  • Like all of the Atlantic provinces, Prince Edward Island would experience falling (and eventually negative) natural increase along with net losses in interprovincial migration in nearly all scenarios.
  • Although the projected proportion of the population aged 65 and over and the projected median age in Prince Edward Island would remain above the national average in 2043, aging is expected to be less pronounced than in the other Atlantic provinces. From 43.6 years in 2018, the median age of the province’s population is projected to reach between 44.4 years (scenario SA) and 49.2 years (scenario FA) in 2043. The proportion of persons aged 65 and over is projected to reach between 23.3% (scenario SA) and 29.1% (scenario FA) in 2043, compared to 19.6% in 2018.

Figure 3-3 Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, Prince Edward Island

Description for Figure 3.3 
Data table for Figure 3.3
Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, Prince Edward Island

Table summary
This table displays the results of Population. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Historic, Projected, Low-growth scenario (LG), Medium-growth scenarios, High-growth scenario (HG), M1, M4 and M5, calculated using in thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year Historic Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG) Medium-growth scenarios High-growth scenario (HG)
M1 M3 M2
in thousands
1994 133.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1995 134.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1996 135.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1997 136.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1998 135.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1999 136.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2000 136.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2001 136.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2002 136.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2003 137.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2004 137.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2005 138.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2006 137.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2007 137.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2008 138.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2009 139.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2010 141.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2011 144.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2012 144.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2013 144.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2014 144.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2015 144.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2016 147.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2017 150.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2018 153.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2019 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 154.9 155.3 155.0 155.3 155.8
2020 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 156.6 157.4 156.7 157.3 158.4
2021 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 158.2 159.5 158.5 159.4 161.0
2022 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 159.8 161.6 160.3 161.5 163.6
2023 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 161.3 163.7 162.1 163.6 166.3
2024 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 162.8 165.8 163.9 165.7 169.1
2025 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 164.2 167.8 165.7 167.7 171.8
2026 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 165.6 169.9 167.4 169.8 174.6
2027 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 166.9 171.9 169.1 171.8 177.4
2028 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 168.1 173.8 170.7 173.7 180.3
2029 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 169.2 175.8 172.3 175.6 183.1
2030 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 170.2 177.6 173.8 177.5 185.9
2031 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 171.2 179.5 175.3 179.3 188.7
2032 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 172.1 181.2 176.7 181.1 191.5
2033 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 173.0 183.0 178.1 182.8 194.3
2034 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 173.7 184.7 179.4 184.5 197.1
2035 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 174.4 186.3 180.7 186.1 199.8
2036 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 175.1 187.9 181.9 187.7 202.6
2037 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 175.6 189.4 183.0 189.2 205.3
2038 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 176.1 190.9 184.1 190.6 208.0
2039 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 176.6 192.3 185.2 192.1 210.6
2040 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 176.9 193.6 186.1 193.4 213.2
2041 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 177.3 194.9 187.1 194.7 215.8
2042 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 177.5 196.2 187.9 196.0 218.3
2043 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 177.8 197.4 188.7 197.1 220.8

Table 3.7
Decomposition of annual crude growth rates, historic (1977/1978 to 2017/2018) and projected (2022/2023 to 2042/2043) according to the low-growth (LG), medium-growth (M1-M5), high-growth (HG), slow-aging (SA) and fast-aging (FA) scenarios, Prince Edward Island
Table summary
This table displays the results of Decomposition of annual crude growth rates. The information is grouped by Scenario / Period (appearing as row headers), Total growth, Natural increase, Net international migration, Net interprovincial migration, Total, Births, Deaths, Immigration, Net emigration, Net non-permanent residents, In-migration and Out-migration, calculated using crude rate per thousand units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Scenario / Period Total growth Natural increase Net international migration Net interprovincial migration
Total Births Deaths Total Immigration Net emigration Net non-permanent residents Total In-migration Out-migration
crude rate per thousand
Historic
1977/1978 14.4 7.5 16.0 8.5 1.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 5.8 32.8 27.0
1997/1998 0.0 2.9 11.2 8.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 -0.3 -3.1 18.9 21.9
2017/2018 17.8 1.7 9.6 7.9 19.0 14.0 0.8 5.8 -3.0 23.2 26.2
Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG)
2022/2023 9.6 -1.1 8.2 9.2 10.8 11.4 0.9 0.3 -0.2 16.5 16.7
2032/2033 4.8 -3.4 7.6 10.9 8.7 9.7 0.9 -0.1 -0.5 15.8 16.4
2042/2043 1.3 -4.8 7.7 12.5 6.5 7.7 0.9 -0.3 -0.5 15.4 15.9
Medium-growth scenario (M1)
2022/2023 13.0 0.2 8.8 8.6 12.9 12.9 0.8 0.9 -0.1 16.5 16.7
2032/2033 9.6 -1.1 8.4 9.5 11.1 11.8 0.8 0.1 -0.5 15.8 16.3
2042/2043 6.1 -2.2 8.6 10.8 8.8 9.7 0.7 -0.2 -0.5 15.3 15.9
Medium-growth scenario (M2)
2022/2023 12.9 0.2 8.8 8.6 12.9 12.9 0.8 0.9 -0.2 16.4 16.5
2032/2033 9.5 -1.2 8.5 9.6 11.2 11.8 0.8 0.1 -0.5 15.6 16.1
2042/2043 6.1 -2.3 8.6 10.9 8.8 9.7 0.7 -0.2 -0.5 15.1 15.6
Medium-growth scenario (M3)
2022/2023 11.2 0.1 8.7 8.6 13.0 12.9 0.8 0.9 -1.9 16.6 18.5
2032/2033 7.8 -1.5 8.3 9.8 11.5 12.1 0.7 0.1 -2.2 15.8 18.0
2042/2043 4.3 -2.7 8.5 11.2 9.2 10.1 0.7 -0.2 -2.2 15.4 17.6
Medium-growth scenario (M4)
2022/2023 11.2 0.1 8.6 8.6 13.0 12.9 0.8 0.9 -1.9 16.9 18.8
2032/2033 7.8 -1.4 8.1 9.6 11.5 12.1 0.8 0.1 -2.2 16.3 18.5
2042/2043 4.3 -2.6 8.3 10.9 9.2 10.1 0.7 -0.2 -2.3 15.9 18.2
Medium-growth scenario (M5)
2022/2023 12.6 0.2 8.7 8.5 13.0 12.9 0.8 0.9 -0.6 18.2 18.8
2032/2033 9.2 -1.0 8.3 9.2 11.2 11.9 0.8 0.1 -1.0 17.6 18.6
2042/2043 5.7 -1.9 8.5 10.4 8.8 9.8 0.7 -0.2 -1.2 17.2 18.3
High-growth scenario (HG)
2022/2023 16.5 1.4 9.5 8.0 15.2 14.1 0.7 1.8 -0.1 16.5 16.6
2032/2033 14.6 1.0 9.4 8.4 14.1 14.4 0.7 0.4 -0.5 15.7 16.2
2042/2043 11.4 0.2 9.7 9.5 11.7 12.5 0.6 -0.1 -0.6 15.3 15.9
Slow-aging scenario (SA)
2022/2023 15.5 0.4 9.5 9.0 15.2 14.1 0.7 1.8 -0.1 16.5 16.6
2032/2033 13.0 -0.6 9.5 10.1 14.1 14.4 0.7 0.4 -0.5 15.8 16.3
2042/2043 10.4 -0.8 9.9 10.7 11.8 12.5 0.6 -0.1 -0.7 15.5 16.1
Fast-aging scenario (FA)
2022/2023 10.6 -0.1 8.1 8.2 10.8 11.4 0.9 0.3 -0.1 16.5 16.7
2032/2033 6.6 -1.7 7.5 9.2 8.7 9.7 0.9 -0.1 -0.5 15.7 16.2
2042/2043 2.5 -3.6 7.5 11.1 6.5 7.6 0.9 -0.3 -0.4 15.2 15.6

Figure 3-4 Population (in relative value), historic (2018) and projected (2043) according to selected scenarios, Prince Edward Island

Description for Figure 3.4

This figure shows four overlapping population pyramids showing the age and sex structures of the 2018 and 2043 Prince Edward Island populations according to three scenarios. In 2018, the pyramid is represented by a solid grey colour, while the 2043 pyramids are represented by purple, blue and orange lines, each corresponding respectively to the slow-aging scenario (SA), the medium-growth scenario (M1) and the fast-aging scenario (FA). The counts by age and sex are expressed in relative values (per thousand) in relation to the total population.

The y-axis is in the middle of the figure, separating the pyramids in two and showing the ages from 0 to 100 years. Males are shown on the left side of the axis, and females are shown on the right side.

The x-axis shows the proportion of persons for each age, expressed per thousand, from 0 to 9, and this is the same for the left-handed and right-handed sides of the y-axis.

The shape of the 2018 population age pyramid is diverging from the typical pyramid shape. It looks more like a mushroom with a narrow base, wider at ages from 50 to 70 years, and a pointed apex. The lines representing the age and sex structure of the 2043 population according to three scenarios form pyramids with a higher peak and a narrower base than 2018, a consequence of the aging population structure projected. The 2043 pyramids show that the proportion of the older population will grow compared to the younger ages in the coming decades.


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