Section 3 – Results at the provincial and territorial levels, 2018 to 2043
New Brunswick

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  • According to the projection scenarios, New Brunswick’s population would be between 736,900 (scenario LG) and 855,100 (scenario HG) by 2043, compared to 770,600 in 2018. In all scenarios, New Brunswick’s projected demographic weight within Canada decreases from its value of 2.1% in 2018 to between 1.6% (scenario SA) and 1.8% (scenario FA) in 2043.
  • New Brunswick’s population would increase between 2018 and 2043 in all but two projection scenarios (LG and FA). In the scenarios where its population decreases, it is mainly due to natural increase becoming more and more negative under population aging and, to a lesser extent, to losses in interprovincial migration.
  • Like in the majority of the provinces, the increasingly negative natural increase projected for New Brunswick is driven primarily by rising crude death rates paired with falling crude birth rates (as a result of an older projected population age structure).
  • In 2018, New Brunswick had the second-highest median age in the country, following Newfoundland and Labrador. This situation is projected to continue in all scenarios. In 2043, the median age of the population of New Brunswick would reach between 46.7 years (scenario SA) and 51.2 years (scenario FA), up from 45.9 years in 2018. From 20.8% in 2018, the proportion of the population aged 65 and over is projected to reach between 27.4% (scenario SA) and 32.4% (scenario FA) by 2043.

Figure 3-7 Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, New Brunswick

Description for Figure 3.7 
Data table for Figure 3.7
Population, historic (1994 to 2018) and projected (2019 to 2043) according to selected scenarios, New Brunswick

Table summary
This table displays the results of Population. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Historic, Projected, Low-growth scenario (LG), Medium-growth scenarios, High-growth scenario (HG), M1, M3 and M5, calculated using in thousands units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Year Historic Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG) Medium-growth scenarios High-growth scenario (HG)
M1 M4 M2
in thousands
1994 750.2 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1995 750.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1996 752.3 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1997 752.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1998 750.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1999 750.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2000 750.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2001 749.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2002 749.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2003 749.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2004 749.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2005 748.1 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2006 745.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2007 745.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2008 746.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2009 750.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2010 753.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2011 755.7 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2012 758.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2013 758.5 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2014 759.0 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2015 758.8 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2016 763.4 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2017 766.9 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2018 770.6 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2019 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 772.1 773.1 772.4 773.1 774.3
2020 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 773.4 775.6 774.3 775.6 777.9
2021 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 774.6 778.1 776.2 778.2 781.8
2022 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 775.6 780.6 778.1 780.8 785.8
2023 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 776.4 783.1 780.0 783.3 789.8
2024 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 776.9 785.5 781.7 785.7 794.0
2025 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 777.2 787.7 783.3 788.0 798.2
2026 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 777.1 789.8 784.8 790.1 802.4
2027 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 776.9 791.8 786.1 792.1 806.6
2028 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 776.3 793.6 787.2 794.0 810.7
2029 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 775.5 795.2 788.2 795.6 814.8
2030 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 774.3 796.6 788.9 797.0 818.8
2031 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 772.9 797.8 789.5 798.2 822.7
2032 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 771.3 798.7 789.8 799.2 826.4
2033 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 769.3 799.5 789.9 800.0 830.0
2034 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 767.1 800.0 789.7 800.6 833.4
2035 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 764.6 800.3 789.3 800.9 836.7
2036 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 761.9 800.3 788.7 801.0 839.8
2037 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 758.9 800.1 787.8 800.8 842.6
2038 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 755.7 799.7 786.7 800.4 845.3
2039 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 752.3 799.0 785.4 799.8 847.7
2040 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 748.7 798.1 783.8 799.0 849.9
2041 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 745.0 797.0 782.0 797.9 851.9
2042 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 741.0 795.6 780.0 796.6 853.6
2043 Note ..: not available for a specific reference period 736.9 794.0 777.7 795.1 855.1

Table 3.9
Decomposition of annual crude growth rates, historic (1977/1978 to 2017/2018) and projected (2022/2023 to 2042/2043) according to the low-growth (LG), medium-growth (M1-M5), high-growth (HG), slow-aging (SA) and fast-aging (FA) scenarios, New Brunswick
Table summary
This table displays the results of Decomposition of annual crude growth rates. The information is grouped by Scenario / Period (appearing as row headers), Total growth, Natural increase, Net international migration, Net interprovincial migration, Total, Births, Deaths, Immigration, Net emigration, Net non-permanent residents, In-migration and Out-migration, calculated using crude rate per thousand units of measure (appearing as column headers).
Scenario / Period Total growth Natural increase Net international migration Net interprovincial migration
Total Births Deaths Total Immigration Net emigration Net non-permanent residents Total In-migration Out-migration
crude rate per thousand
Historic
1977/1978 6.8 8.5 15.9 7.5 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.0 -1.9 21.8 23.7
1997/1998 -1.4 2.4 10.6 8.1 0.4 1.0 0.6 0.0 -4.2 14.5 18.7
2017/2018 4.9 -1.1 8.6 9.7 6.1 5.4 0.5 1.3 -0.1 14.9 14.9
Projected
Low-growth scenario (LG)
2022/2023 1.0 -2.8 7.8 10.6 4.5 5.1 0.7 0.0 -0.7 12.9 13.6
2032/2033 -2.5 -5.6 7.3 12.9 3.8 4.5 0.7 0.0 -0.8 12.4 13.2
2042/2043 -5.6 -7.6 7.3 14.9 2.7 3.3 0.6 0.0 -0.7 12.1 12.8
Medium-growth scenario (M1)
2022/2023 3.1 -1.6 8.3 9.9 5.4 5.7 0.6 0.2 -0.7 12.9 13.6
2032/2033 0.9 -3.4 8.1 11.5 5.0 5.5 0.6 0.1 -0.7 12.4 13.1
2042/2043 -2.0 -5.2 8.2 13.3 3.8 4.3 0.5 0.0 -0.7 12.2 12.9
Medium-growth scenario (M2)
2022/2023 3.2 -1.6 8.4 9.9 5.4 5.7 0.6 0.2 -0.6 13.1 13.8
2032/2033 1.0 -3.3 8.1 11.4 5.0 5.5 0.6 0.1 -0.8 12.6 13.3
2042/2043 -1.9 -5.1 8.2 13.3 3.8 4.3 0.5 0.0 -0.7 12.3 13.0
Medium-growth scenario (M3)
2022/2023 2.5 -1.6 8.3 10.0 5.4 5.8 0.6 0.2 -1.2 13.5 14.7
2032/2033 0.2 -3.5 8.0 11.6 5.1 5.6 0.6 0.1 -1.3 12.9 14.3
2042/2043 -2.8 -5.4 8.1 13.5 3.9 4.4 0.5 0.0 -1.3 12.7 14.0
Medium-growth scenario (M4)
2022/2023 2.3 -1.8 8.2 10.0 5.4 5.8 0.6 0.2 -1.3 12.4 13.8
2032/2033 0.1 -3.8 7.8 11.6 5.1 5.6 0.6 0.1 -1.3 12.0 13.3
2042/2043 -2.9 -5.7 7.9 13.6 3.9 4.4 0.5 0.0 -1.2 11.8 13.0
Medium-growth scenario (M5)
2022/2023 2.5 -1.8 8.2 10.0 5.4 5.8 0.6 0.2 -1.1 12.6 13.8
2032/2033 0.4 -3.7 7.9 11.6 5.1 5.6 0.6 0.1 -1.0 12.2 13.2
2042/2043 -2.6 -5.6 8.0 13.5 3.9 4.4 0.5 0.0 -0.9 12.0 12.9
High-growth scenario (H)
2022/2023 5.2 -0.5 8.9 9.4 6.4 6.4 0.6 0.6 -0.7 12.9 13.6
2032/2033 4.3 -1.5 8.9 10.4 6.6 6.9 0.5 0.2 -0.7 12.4 13.1
2042/2043 1.7 -3.0 9.2 12.1 5.4 5.8 0.5 0.1 -0.7 12.2 12.9
Slow-aging scenario (SA)
2022/2023 4.1 -1.6 9.0 10.5 6.4 6.4 0.6 0.6 -0.7 12.9 13.6
2032/2033 2.6 -3.2 9.1 12.3 6.6 6.9 0.5 0.2 -0.8 12.5 13.3
2042/2043 0.6 -4.1 9.4 13.5 5.5 5.8 0.5 0.1 -0.8 12.4 13.2
Fast-aging scenario (FA)
2022/2023 2.1 -1.8 7.8 9.5 4.5 5.1 0.6 0.0 -0.6 12.9 13.6
2032/2033 -0.6 -3.7 7.2 10.9 3.8 4.4 0.6 0.0 -0.7 12.3 13.0
2042/2043 -4.2 -6.3 7.1 13.4 2.7 3.3 0.6 0.0 -0.6 12.0 12.5

Figure 3-8 Population (in relative value), historic (2018) and projected (2043) according to selected scenarios, New Brunswick

Description for Figure 3.8

This figure shows four overlapping population pyramids showing the age and sex structures of the 2018 and 2043 New Brunswick populations according to three scenarios. In 2018, the pyramid is represented by a solid grey colour, while the 2043 pyramids are represented by purple, blue and orange lines, each corresponding respectively to the slow-aging scenario (SA), the medium-growth scenario (M1) and the fast-aging scenario (FA). The counts by age and sex are expressed in relative values (per thousand) in relation to the total population.

The y-axis is in the middle of the figure, separating the pyramids in two and showing the ages from 0 to 100 years. Males are shown on the left side of the axis, and females are shown on the right side.

The x-axis shows the proportion of persons for each age, expressed per thousand, from 0 to 10, and this is the same for the left-handed and right-handed sides of the y-axis.

The shape of the 2018 population age pyramid is diverging from the typical pyramid shape. It looks more like a mushroom with a narrow base, wider at ages from 50 to 70 years, and a pointed apex. The lines representing the age and sex structure of the 2043 population according to three scenarios form pyramids with a higher peak and a narrower base than 2018, a consequence of the aging population structure projected. The 2043 pyramids show that the proportion of the older population will grow compared to the younger ages in the coming decades.


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