Annual Demographic Estimates:
Subprovincial Areas, July 1, 2021

Start of text box

End of text box

Highlights

Population growth in Canada’s urban regions large and small slowed for a second consecutive year in 2020/2021. New permanent immigrants to Canada accounted for the majority of population growth seen in 2020/2021, while net losses of non-permanent residents contributed in significantly reducing the growth.

These estimates, the first to give us a look at a subprovincial level for an entire year of the COVID-19 pandemic, tell of an accelerating trend in migration from large urban centres, leaving their continued growth largely supported by international migration.

Census metropolitan areas

• On July 1, 2021, 27,465,137 people, or just over 7 in 10 Canadians (71.8%), were living in one of the 35 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) in Canada. This proportion remained essentially unchanged from a year prior as growth seen in CMAs decreased (+0.5% vs +1.4% in 2019/2020).
• The majority of CMAs (32 of 35) saw their population growth rate reduced compared to the preceding year, with Thunder Bay (Ont.) (-1.1%), Windsor (Ont.) (-0.9%), Montréal (Qué.) (-0.6%) and Peterborough (Ont.) (-0.1%) recording population decreases.
• Only three CMAs are estimated to have seen a growth rate at or above 2.0% in the last year, similar to the previous year. Kelowna (B.C.) saw the fastest growth (+2.6%), followed by Oshawa (Ont.) (+2.3%) and Halifax (N.S.) (+2.0%).
• Net international migration to Canada was down more than half compared to 2018/2019, before the pandemic. The slowdown in international migration remained the leading factor behind reduced population growth experienced in CMAs for a second year in a row.
• Interprovincial and intraprovincial migration patterns changed with all CMAs in Ontario and Alberta recording net losses from people moving to other provinces (except for Ottawa-Gatineau, Ontario and Lethbridge, Alberta). This contrasts with all CMAs in British Columbia and the Atlantic Provinces seeing net gains from interprovincial migration flows.
• A record number of people have opted to relocate outside the biggest CMAs. Toronto (Ont.) (-64,121) and Montréal (Qué.) (-39,904) both saw the largest net losses to migratory exchanges with other regions of their respective provinces since at least 2001/2002, while losses in Vancouver (B.C.) remained stable (-12,245).
• Although it remains negative in some provinces, net intraprovincial migration to rural areas (those outside CMAs and census agglomerations) increased across the country in 2020/2021. Rural areas in Ontario (+13,680) and Québec (+25,831) saw the highest gains from intraprovincial migration since at least 2001/2002.

Census agglomerations

• In 2020/2021, 70.9% of all census agglomerations (CAs) saw positive demographic growth, similar to a year prior (72.6% in 2019/2020).
• In 2020/2021, the CA of Carleton Place (Ont.) experienced the highest growth (+3.7%), a place it has held for the last four years. The second and third largest increases occurred in Cowansville (Qué.) (+3.6%) and Wasaga Beach (Ont.) (+3.4%). The main contributor to the growth of these CAs was the influx of migrants from elsewhere in their corresponding province.
• The CA of Lacombe (Alb.) recorded the highest rate of decline in 2020/2021 at -2.1%, mainly driven by losses to other parts of the province. The CAs of Thompson (Man.) (-2.0%) and Estevan (Sask.) (-1.8%) came in second and third place, both experiencing losses to other provinces and the rest of their province.

Census divisions

• The census division (CD) of Montcalm (Qué.) recorded the highest rate of population growth in 2020/2021 at +4.4%. It was followed by the CDs of Mirabel (Qué.) (+4.1%) and Brome-Missisquoi (Qué.) (+3.9%).
• All of the fourteen fastest growing CDs in Canada are located in Québec and near the CMAs of Montéal, Québec and Sherbrooke. The main driver of this growth was the influx of people from other parts of the province. The fifteenth fastest growing CD, and first outside of Québec, is that of Central Okanagan (B.C.) (+2.5%) which made significant gains from people moving from other provinces.
• The CD showing the most pronounced population decline in 2020/2021 is that of Montréal (Qué.) (-2.3%). It is the first time this CD recorded a population loss since 2006/2007. The population of the CD of Toronto (Ont.) also decreased by -0.6%, the first annual loss since 2003/2004. In both cases, higher losses from migration to other parts of their respective province and reduced level of international migration were the leading factors for the decline.

Census subdivisions

• Among the census subdivisions (CSDs) with a population of at least 5,000, The Blue Mountains (Ont.) (+7.9%), Langford (B.C.) (+6.3%), Brock (Ont.) (+5.9%) and Saint-Hippolyte (Qué.) (+5.9%) saw the highest growth rates in 2020/2021. Such fast growing CSDs continue to be found mostly in the periphery of CMAs, away from the core of large urban centres.
• CSDs with the highest rates of population decrease are also typically located outside large urban centres, but usually in more remote settings. Among municipalities with a population of at least 5,000, Westmount (Qué.) (-3.9%), Bulkley-Nechako A (B.C.) (-3.2%), Slave Lake (Alb.) (-3.2%) and Whitecourt (Alb.) (-2.7%) saw the fastest decrease in 2020/2021.