Economic and Social Reports
Estimating immigrant citizenship rates in Canada and the United States: Data sources and comparability issues
DOI: https://doi.org/10.25318/36280001202500600001-eng
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This study was jointly conducted by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada and Statistics Canada.
Recent studies have documented a significant decline in the citizenship rate among recent immigrants to Canada. Among immigrants (permanent residents) admitted to Canada five to nine years earlier, the citizenship rate declined from 75.4% in 1996 to 45.7% in 2021 (Hou & Picot, 2019; 2024). The effects of COVID-19 may partially explain the more recent decline, but the reasons for the longer-term fall remain unclear. Possible explanations include the increased fluidity of international migration, rapid economic growth in some source countries and changes in government policies on citizenship (Hou & Picot, 2021). Cross-country comparisons can help clarify the relative importance of these factors. If similar trends are observed in other major immigrant-receiving Western countries, this would suggest that the underlying causes are not unique to Canada.
The United States would be a useful comparison country for Canada, as both are major immigrant-receiving nations with close geographic and economic ties. However, differences in available data complicate comparisons of immigrant citizenship rates. This article examines key data sources for studying immigrant citizenship in both countries and highlights the challenges in comparing citizenship rates and trends.
Data sources in Canada
In Canada, the Census of Population collects information on citizenship status, making it a key data source for studying immigrant citizenship (e.g., Tuey & Maheux, 2022). The consistency of the census question on citizenship, along with detailed sociodemographic characteristics, enables the examination of long-term trends in immigrant citizenship and its correlates. More recently, the year of citizenship acquisition for immigrants naturalized since 2004 has been added to the Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB), which links immigrant landing records with income tax data. In addition to the annual data from this administrative file, its longitudinal nature facilitates studies on the determinants and consequences of citizenship acquisition (e.g., Hou & Picot, 2025).
As shown in Table 1, which focuses on recent immigrants (who obtained their permanent residency five to nine years earlier), estimated citizenship rates and recent trends are similar among census respondents and tax filers in the IMDB. Both data sources are based on immigrants who were residing in Canada at the time of data collection. Alternatively, immigration administrative records can be used to calculate citizenship rates for all immigrants who were admitted to the country, including those no longer residing in Canada (third row of Table 1). Unsurprisingly, citizenship rates among all ever-admitted immigrants were lower than those based on current residents, as immigrants who left Canada were less likely to acquire Canadian citizenship (Hou & Picot, 2025).
| Data source | Calendar year | Change | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2011 | 2016 | 2021 | 2011 to 2016 | 2016 to 2021 | |
| number of individuals | percent change | ||||
| Note: Population estimates are rounded to the nearest 100.
Sources: Statistics Canada, 2016 and 2021 Census of Population, 2011 National Household Survey, Longitudinal Immigration Database, and immigration administrative records. |
|||||
| Estimated base population | |||||
| Census and National Household Survey | 809,000 | 882,000 | 981,500 | 9.0 | 11.3 |
| Longitudinal Immigration Database, tax filers | 816,000 | 885,800 | 980,600 | 8.6 | 10.7 |
| Immigration administrative records, all landed immigrants | 1,005,500 | 1,067,900 | 1,135,700 | 6.2 | 6.3 |
| percent | percent change | ||||
| Citizenship rate | |||||
| Census and National Household Survey | 67.5 | 60.4 | 45.7 | -10.5 | -24.3 |
| Longitudinal Immigration Database, tax filers | 66.5 | 60.0 | 46.8 | -9.8 | -22.0 |
| Immigration administrative records, all landed immigrants | 59.4 | 53.4 | 42.9 | -10.2 | -19.7 |
Data sources in the United States
Two U.S. data sources have been used to estimate citizenship rates in U.S. studies. One is the long-form census up to 2000 and the American Community Survey (ACS) since 2000. The ACS, which is similar in content to the long-form census, is conducted annually but with a much smaller sample size than the census. A key limitation of the U.S. census and ACS is that they cannot distinguish between permanent residents, who are eligible for citizenship, and other foreign-born populations, including undocumented migrants and legal temporary migrants, who are not eligible for naturalization. The citizenship rate among the entire foreign-born population in the United States is not comparable to the citizenship rate among permanent residents in Canadian data.
At the aggregate national level, the estimated number of undocumented migrants and legal temporary migrants can be subtracted from the foreign-born population to estimate the number of permanent residents. This is a superior denominator for the citizenship rate calculation. However, for a detailed analysis of recent trends, individual-level data by arrival cohort and subpopulation (e.g., by family income or education) are required. Unfortunately, there is no way to identify undocumented or legal temporary migrants by cohort or sociodemographic characteristics in the ACS.
The second key U.S. data source is lawful permanent resident (LPR) data, which include all individuals who have obtained legal permanent residency in the United States. The LPR data are comparable to Canada’s immigration administrative records linked with citizenship acquisition data. However, the LPR data cannot distinguish between permanent residents currently residing in the United States and those who have left the country. This may lead to lower estimated citizenship rates than those based on permanent residents still in the country, a more commonly used measure in Canada.
Moreover, the LPR data, maintained by the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, are currently inaccessible for international comparison. Even if access were granted, the LPR data lack many key variables—such as family income, educational attainment and language ability—that are essential for meaningful cross-country comparisons. Earlier Canadian research has shown significant variation in the decline of citizenship rates among these groups (Hou & Picot, 2024).
Comparability issues
Estimated citizenship rates in the United States vary considerably depending on the data source and the base population. For example, in a report by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (2023), the estimated citizenship rate among foreign-born individuals who had been in the country for 10 years or more was 69% for the United States in 2020, compared with 90% for Canada in 2021. This large difference arose partly because the U.S. estimate was based on the entire foreign-born population in the ACS, while the Canadian estimate was based on permanent residents in the census. In contrast, after accounting for undocumented migrants and legal temporary migrants, the American Immigration Council (2024) estimated the U.S. citizenship rate among eligible permanent residents to be 77% in 2022, closer to the 81% rate among eligible permanent residents in Canada in 2021 (Tuey & Maheux, 2022).
The above comparisons refer to aggregate estimates at the national level. However, challenges also arise when estimating trends in U.S. citizenship rates for specific entry cohorts. A report by the U.S. Office of Immigration Statistics found significantly different results when comparing the LPR data with the ACS in tracking the citizenship rates of a given cohort of adult immigrants (Cornwell, 2006). For instance, in 2004, nine years after the entry of the 1995 cohort, the estimated citizenship rate was 28% from the ACS but 46% from the LPR data. Among immigrants from China, the citizenship rate was 38% from the ACS and 53% from the LPR data. One striking discrepancy was the difference in the total number of migrants: the LPR data recorded 572,000 permanent residents in the 1995 entry cohort, while the ACS recorded 987,000 entrants, which included all foreign-born individuals who arrived in the United States in 1995, not just those who became permanent residents that year.
Table 2 reports the estimated citizenship rates for the United States from the ACS and publicly released LPR data (U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services, 2021), as well as the rates from three Canadian data sources. To show trends, citizenship rates were estimated in the 10th year after arrival (or admission) for two cohorts of migrants from selected countries of birth. As expected, the ACS estimates were much lower than the LPR estimates, and the changes between cohorts also varied in magnitude and even direction for some source countries. The observed changes between cohorts were similar in the three Canadian data sources, although the rates were lower based on immigration administrative records, where the base population consisted of all permanent residents admitted to the country, including those who did not reside in Canada. The most comparable data sources between the two countries were likely Canada’s immigration administrative records and the U.S. LPR data. Rates were generally higher in the Canadian data than the U.S. data, although these results are for specific cohorts 10 years after arrival and may not be generalizable.
| Country | Data | Base populationTable 2 Note 1 | Cohort type | CohortTable 2 Note 2 | Country of birth | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All countries | China | India | Philippines | |||||
| percent | ||||||||
|
||||||||
| United States | Lawful permanent resident data | All permanent residentsTable 2 Note 3 | Year of obtaining permanent residency | 1998 | 50.5Table 2 Note ‡ | 56.1Table 2 Note ‡ | 67.3Table 2 Note ‡ | 60.8Table 2 Note ‡ |
| 2008 | 53.3Table 2 Note ‡ | 43.8Table 2 Note ‡ | 69.6Table 2 Note ‡ | 60.3Table 2 Note ‡ | ||||
| American Community Survey | Foreign-born population, survey respondents | Year of arrival | 1996 to 2000 | 25.8Table 2 Note ‡ | 33.1Table 2 Note ‡ | 34.0Table 2 Note ‡ | 52.5Table 2 Note ‡ | |
| 2006 to 2010 | 37.9Table 2 Note ‡ | 33.8Table 2 Note ‡ | 30.8Table 2 Note ‡ | 58.1Table 2 Note ‡ | ||||
| Canada | Census of Population | Permanent residents, census respondents | Year of obtaining permanent residency | 1996 | 85.6Table 2 Note § | 89.9Table 2 Note § | 76.3Table 2 Note § | 88.7Table 2 Note § |
| 2006 | 76.4Table 2 Note § | 57.4Table 2 Note § | 74.8Table 2 Note § | 83.9Table 2 Note § | ||||
| Longitudinal Immigration Database | Permanent residents, tax filers | Year of obtaining permanent residency | 2003 | 79.6Table 2 Note § | 69.1Table 2 Note § | 77.1Table 2 Note § | 89.5Table 2 Note § | |
| 2008 | 71.7Table 2 Note § | 49.1Table 2 Note § | 67.2Table 2 Note § | 82.3Table 2 Note § | ||||
| Immigration administrative records | All permanent residentsTable 2 Note 3 | Year of obtaining permanent residency | 2003 | 70.8Table 2 Note § | 60.1Table 2 Note § | 66.7Table 2 Note § | 85.7Table 2 Note § | |
| 2008 | 62.3Table 2 Note § | 42.6Table 2 Note § | 56.1Table 2 Note § | 79.4Table 2 Note § | ||||
Conclusion
This article examines the feasibility of using two different U.S. data sources to reliably compare immigrant naturalization levels and trends with those in Canada. A review of estimates from the U.S. ACS and LPR data reveals that the two sources produce significantly different citizenship rates and trends because of large differences in their base populations.
The ACS base population includes permanent residents, legal temporary residents and undocumented migrants. The latter two groups are not eligible for naturalization, yet they can account for up to 30% of the total foreign-born population, with variation across different periods and source regions (American Immigration Council, 2024; Passel & Krogstad, 2024). Conversely, the LPR data include all individuals granted permanent residency, whether they reside in the United States or have since left. As a result, both data sources underestimate citizenship rates among eligible permanent residents living in the United States, with greater underestimation in the ACS data. Consequently, citizenship rates from these U.S. sources are not directly comparable to Canadian estimates based on census respondents or tax filers in the IMDB.
At the national level, the ACS base population can be adjusted to exclude ineligible migrants. After adjustment, the difference in overall citizenship rates between the United States and Canada was much smaller (American Immigration Council, 2024). However, these adjustments are not available by sociodemographic characteristics or country of birth, making detailed comparisons with Canadian data impossible. The LPR data are more similar to Canada’s immigration administrative records, but issues with data access and the lack of key sociodemographic details in the LPR dataset limit its usability for detailed comparisons with Canada.
In sum, caution must be exercised when comparing immigrant citizenship levels and trends between Canada and the United States because of considerable differences in the base populations of the data sources in both countries.
Acknowledgments
This is a joint study conducted by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada and Statistics Canada. The authors would like to thank Athanase Barayandema, Marc Frenette, Kathryn Spence and Catherine Tuey for their advice and comments on an earlier version of this article.
Authors
Feng Hou is with the Economic and Social Analysis and Modelling Division, Analytical Studies and Modelling Branch, at Statistics Canada. Garnett Picot and Li Xu are with the Research and Knowledge Mobilization Division, Research and Data Branch, at Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.
References
American Immigration Council. (2024). Naturalization in the United States: Key facts.
Cornwell, D. (2006). Fact Sheet: Naturalization Rate Estimates: Stock vs. Flow.
Hou, F., & Picot, G. (2019). Trends in the citizenship rate among new immigrants to Canada, Statistics Canada, Economic Insights, no. 101.
Hou, F., & Picot, G. (2021). The decline in the naturalization rate among recent immigrants in Canada: Effects of policy changes vs. structural factors? Migration Studies, 9(3), 1030-1053.
Hou, F., & Picot, G. (2024). The decline in the citizenship rate among recent immigrants to Canada: Update to 2021. Economic and Social Reports, 4(2), 1-13.
Hou, F., & Picot, G. (2025). Citizenship Acquisition and Active Presence of Immigrants in Canada, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series No 485.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. (2023). Indicators of Immigrant Integration 2023: Settling In, OECD Publishing, Paris.
Passel, R., & Krogstad, J.M. (2024). What we know about unauthorized immigrants living in the U.S., Pew Research Center, Downloaded September 18, 2024.
Tuey, C., & Maheux, H. (2022). A portrait of citizenship in Canada from the 2021 Census, Statistics Canada.
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services. (2021). Trends in Naturalization Rates: FY 2018 Update.
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