Economic and Social Reports
Job quality in industries dependent on United States demand for Canadian exports

Introduction

The United States is Canada’s largest trading partner by far. In 2024, 75.9% of Canadian exports went to the United States, while 62.2% of Canada’s imports came from the United States.^Note  In early 2025, trade tensions emerged between the two countries, leading to U.S. tariffs imposed on Canadian exports and Canadian counter-tariffs imposed on U.S. imports. According to a recent analysis, 8.8% of Canadian workers (corresponding to roughly 1.8 million jobs) were employed in industries dependent on U.S. demand for Canadian exports (henceforth, IDUSCEXs), either directly or indirectly.^Note 

While it is challenging to estimate the number of job losses that may be associated with U.S. tariffs, it is possible to describe the quality of jobs at risk of being affected by a decline in U.S. demand for Canadian products. This article addresses this issue by examining a multitude of job quality measures in IDUSCEXs. As outlined in the Statistical Framework on Quality of Employment, job quality is a multi-dimensional concept, characterized by different elements, including income and benefits, working time and work-life balance and security of employment and social protection.^Note  The present article focuses on a subset of indicators, including mean hourly wages; the percentage of employees in full-time jobs, permanent jobs, full-time permanent jobs and unionized jobs; and the percentage of employees who have been with their employer for at least 10 years (high-tenure employees).^Note  It does so with a sample of employees aged 15 and over observed in their main job in the Labour Force Survey (LFS) in 2023 and 2024 combined. With the 2022 Longitudinal Worker File (LWF), which contains T1 tax data, the article also calculates the percentage of employees aged 18^Note  and over in their main job (with at least $1,000 in annual wages and salaries in 2024 constant dollars) who have a registered pension plan (RPP) or a deferred profit sharing plan (DPSP)—i.e., an employer-sponsored pension plan.^Note 

Jobs in industries dependent on U.S. demand for Canadian exports were generally well-paying, but wages varied considerably by specific industry

Chart 1 indicates that the mean hourly wage was $34.79 across all industries over the last two calendar years (2023 and 2024). Mean hourly wages were higher in IDUSCEXs ($36.92) than in industries not dependent on U.S. demand for Canadian exports, or INDUSCEXs ($34.57). The difference ($2.35) corresponds to almost $5,000 in annual wages in a job held all year (52 weeks) at 40 hours per week.

Data table for Chart 1

Data table for chart 1
Table summary
The information is grouped by Industries (appearing as row headers), Upper, Mean real hourly wages, Lower and 95% confidence interval, calculated using 2024 constant dollars and percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Industries	Mean real hourly wages	95% confidence interval
		Lower	Upper
	2024 constant dollars	percent
Note x suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act Notes: Main job held by employees aged 15 and over. The horizontal lines overlaid on the bars indicate the 95% confidence interval. The data series is displayed by bars of various colours, denoting the industry: a green bar (All industries), a dark blue bar (Industries dependent on U.S. demand for Canadian exports), blue bars (specific industries within Industries dependent on U.S. demand for Canadian exports), a dark red bar (Industries not dependent on U.S. demand for Canadian exports), and red bars (specific industries within Industries not dependent on U.S. demand for Canadian exports). Sources: Statistics Canada, Labour Force Survey, 2023 and 2024.
Other industries	33.16	32.99	33.33
Educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration	37.66	37.48	37.84
Industries not dependent on U.S. demand for Canadian exports	34.57	34.43	34.71
Lessors of non-financial intangible assets (except copyrighted works)	x suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act	x suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act	x suppressed to meet the confidentiality requirements of the Statistics Act
Clothing and leather and allied product manufacturing	26.17	24.11	28.23
Textile mills and textile product mills	27.05	25.22	28.88
Fishing, hunting and trapping	28.39	27.06	29.72
Truck transportation	29.57	29.12	30.02
Plastics and rubber products manufacturing	30.72	29.67	31.77
Wood product manufacturing	31.48	30.62	32.34
Electrical equipment, appliance and component manufacturing	33.47	32.17	34.77
Miscellaneous manufacturing	34.26	33.19	35.33
Machinery manufacturing	35.05	34.27	35.83
Motion picture and sound recording industries	35.06	33.51	36.61
Forestry and logging	35.57	34.10	37.04
Transportation equipment manufacturing	36.66	36.01	37.31
Water transportation	38.29	36.23	40.35
Paper manufacturing	38.73	37.51	39.95
Primary metal manufacturing	40.10	38.69	41.51
Computer and electronic product manufacturing	42.70	40.58	44.82
Chemical manufacturing	43.39	41.78	45.00
Rail transportation	43.48	42.31	44.65
Oil and gas extraction	59.59	57.92	61.26
Pipeline transportation	59.80	56.04	63.56
Industries dependent on U.S. demand for Canadian exports	36.92	36.81	37.03
All industries	34.79	34.76	34.82

Of course, INDUSCEXs include educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration, which (as will be shown) had many favourable job characteristics based on the indicators examined in this article. Thus, it may be more meaningful to make comparisons with the other industries within the INDUSCEX grouping.^Note  In this case, mean hourly wages were $33.16—$3.76 lower than in IDUSCEXs (equivalent to almost $8,000 in annual wages for a job held all year at 40 hours per week). Interestingly, mean hourly wages in IDUSCEXs were much closer to those of workers in educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration ($37.66).^Note 

Although jobs in IDUSCEXs were relatively high-paying, on average, there was considerable variation within this broad grouping of industries. Mean hourly wages were highest in pipeline transportation ($59.80) and oil and gas extraction ($59.59). A small number of other IDUSCEXs also paid above $40.00 per hour, including rail transportation ($43.48), chemical manufacturing ($43.39), computer and electronic product manufacturing ($42.70), and one industry that has been the target of U.S.-imposed tariffs on multiple occasions in recent years—primary metal manufacturing ($40.10). On the other end of the spectrum, some IDUSCEXs paid considerably lower wages, on average. These included clothing and leather and allied product manufacturing ($26.17); textile mills and textile product mills ($27.05); fishing, hunting and trapping ($28.39); truck transportation ($29.57); plastics and rubber products manufacturing ($30.72); and wood product manufacturing ($31.48).^Note 

Non-wage job quality measures were generally favourable in industries dependent on U.S. demand for Canadian exports

While hourly wages represent a central component of job quality—the pay rate per unit of work—jobs may differ in many other important aspects. The measures shown in Table 1 address the usual hours of work associated with the job (full-time jobs—those with at least 30 hours per week), job stability (permanent jobs—those with no predetermined end date), worker association and collective bargaining (unionized jobs), job tenure as a measure of positive job match (high-tenure employees—those who have been with their employer for at least 10 years), and employer-sponsored pension plans (RPPs or DPSPs).^Note 

The percentage of employees with these job quality features was always greater in IDUSCEXs than in other industries within INDUSCEXs. The differences were sizable in every case: full-time jobs (95.5% in IDUSCEXs vs. 81.4% in INDUSCEXs), permanent jobs (93.4% vs. 89.6%), full-time permanent jobs (90.1% vs. 75.8%), unionized jobs (21.0% vs. 16.2%), high-tenure employees (33.9% vs. 24.1%), and RPPs or DPSPs (39.1% vs. 27.9%).

In contrast, the share of employees with the various job quality attributes was not unilaterally greater in IDUSCEXs compared with that in educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration. In fact, a far greater percentage of employees in the latter grouping were in unionized jobs (64.2% in educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration vs. 21.0% in IDUSCEXs) and had RPPs or DPSPs (68.1% vs. 39.1%). Moreover, the percentage of high-tenure employees was moderately greater in educational services, health care and social assistance, and public administration (36.9%) compared with IDUSCEXs (33.9%). However, the share of employees in full-time jobs, permanent jobs and full-time permanent jobs was substantially greater in IDUSCEXs.

As was the case with hourly wages, there was considerable variation in the other job quality measures across specific IDUSCEX industries. For example, the vast majority of industries in the IDUSCEX grouping registered a large percentage of full-time jobs (well over 90.0%), but there were a couple of exceptions: motion picture and sound recording industries (79.6%), and textile mills and textile product mills (86.8%). The same held true for permanent jobs, since almost all industries in this grouping registered well over 90.0% of their employees in permanent positions. But again, there were two exceptions: motion picture and sound recording industries (65.6%) and fishing, hunting and trapping (39.4%).

The share of employees in unionized jobs was, for the most part, below 20.0% in industries within the broader IDUSCEX grouping. However, some stood out with considerably higher rates: rail transportation (71.4%), water transportation (64.8%), paper manufacturing (43.9%), primary metal manufacturing (43.0%) and wood product manufacturing (30.9%). Notably, the highest-paying industries under the IDUSCEX banner—pipeline transportation, and oil and gas extraction—had relatively small unionization rates (8.7% and 11.7%, respectively).

Finally, there was considerable variability in the percentage of employees with RPPs or DPSPs. Many industries in the broader IDUSCEX grouping were well above the overall IDUSCEX rate of 39.1%, while many were well below it. For example, 88.4% of workers in rail transportation had RPPs or DPSPs, followed by workers in primary metal manufacturing (72.0%), pipeline transportation (65.7%), water transportation (65.6%), transportation equipment manufacturing (65.0%) and paper manufacturing (63.7%).

Importantly, the two top-paying industries within the broader IDUSCEX grouping—pipeline transportation, and oil and gas extraction—also registered relatively high percentages of employees with RPPs or DPSPs (65.7% for pipeline transportation and 52.7% for oil and gas extraction). RPPs and DPSPs represent additional forms of compensation, since they reduce the burden of having to save for retirement.

In contrast, the shares of employees with RPPs and DPSPs were 2.8% in fishing, hunting and trapping; 10.5% in motion picture and sound recording industries; 11.1% in truck transportation; 12.6% in clothing and leather and allied product manufacturing; and 13.8% in lessors of non-financial intangible assets (except copyrighted works).

Conclusion

While it is far too early to know how many jobs may be lost as a result of tariffs, this article suggests that, in general, jobs in IDUSCEXs were well-paying and had many favourable non-wage characteristics. That being said, there was considerable variability in all of the job quality measures studied, and not all industries within the broader IDUSCEX grouping ranked relatively high in these measures.

It is also too early to know how affected workers in IDUSCEXs may fare if they are displaced as a result of tariffs. However, earnings losses from job displacement in general are known to be substantial, even several years after displacement (Bonikowska and Morissette 2012). Chen and Morissette (2020) also found substantial earnings losses in the oil and gas sector (including oil and gas extraction, and related support activities for mining, and oil and gas extraction). Generating similar evidence for other IDUSCEXs would be highly informative given recent trade developments.

Authors

Marc Frenette, Tahsin Mehdi and René Morissette are with the Social Analysis and Modelling Division, Analytical Studies and Modelling Branch, at Statistics Canada.

References

Bonikowska, A. and Morissette, R. 2012. Earnings Losses of Displaced Workers with Stable Labour Market Attachment: Recent Evidence from Canada. Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series, no. 346.

Chen, W.-H. and Morissette, R. 2020. How Do Workers Displaced from Energy-producing Sectors Fare after Job Loss? Evidence from the Oil and Gas Industry. Economic Insights, no. 123.