Inference and foundations

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All (120)

All (120) (50 to 60 of 120 results)

51. Modelling risk factor information for linked census data: The case of smoking Archived
Articles and reports: 82-003-X201300611796
Geography: Canada
Description:
The study assesses the feasibility of using statistical modelling techniques to fill information gaps related to risk factors, specifically, smoking status, in linked long-form census data.
Release date: 2013-06-19
52. Bayesian inference for finite population quantiles from unequal probability samples Archived
Articles and reports: 12-001-X201200211758
Description:
This paper develops two Bayesian methods for inference about finite population quantiles of continuous survey variables from unequal probability sampling. The first method estimates cumulative distribution functions of the continuous survey variable by fitting a number of probit penalized spline regression models on the inclusion probabilities. The finite population quantiles are then obtained by inverting the estimated distribution function. This method is quite computationally demanding. The second method predicts non-sampled values by assuming a smoothly-varying relationship between the continuous survey variable and the probability of inclusion, by modeling both the mean function and the variance function using splines. The two Bayesian spline-model-based estimators yield a desirable balance between robustness and efficiency. Simulation studies show that both methods yield smaller root mean squared errors than the sample-weighted estimator and the ratio and difference estimators described by Rao, Kovar, and Mantel (RKM 1990), and are more robust to model misspecification than the regression through the origin model-based estimator described in Chambers and Dunstan (1986). When the sample size is small, the 95% credible intervals of the two new methods have closer to nominal confidence coverage than the sample-weighted estimator.
Release date: 2012-12-19
53. A hierarchical Bayesian nonresponse model for two-way categorical data from small areas with uncertainty about ignorability Archived
Articles and reports: 12-001-X201200111688
Description:
We study the problem of nonignorable nonresponse in a two dimensional contingency table which can be constructed for each of several small areas when there is both item and unit nonresponse. In general, the provision for both types of nonresponse with small areas introduces significant additional complexity in the estimation of model parameters. For this paper, we conceptualize the full data array for each area to consist of a table for complete data and three supplemental tables for missing row data, missing column data, and missing row and column data. For nonignorable nonresponse, the total cell probabilities are allowed to vary by area, cell and these three types of "missingness". The underlying cell probabilities (i.e., those which would apply if full classification were always possible) for each area are generated from a common distribution and their similarity across the areas is parametrically quantified. Our approach is an extension of the selection approach for nonignorable nonresponse investigated by Nandram and Choi (2002a, b) for binary data; this extension creates additional complexity because of the multivariate nature of the data coupled with the small area structure. As in that earlier work, the extension is an expansion model centered on an ignorable nonresponse model so that the total cell probability is dependent upon which of the categories is the response. Our investigation employs hierarchical Bayesian models and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods for posterior inference. The models and methods are illustrated with data from the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.
Release date: 2012-06-27
54. Modelling of complex survey data: Why model? Why is it a problem? How can we approach it? Archived
Articles and reports: 12-001-X201100211602
Description:
This article attempts to answer the three questions appearing in the title. It starts by discussing unique features of complex survey data not shared by other data sets, which require special attention but suggest a large variety of diverse inference procedures. Next a large number of different approaches proposed in the literature for handling these features are reviewed with discussion on their merits and limitations. The approaches differ in the conditions underlying their use, additional data required for their application, goodness of fit testing, the inference objectives that they accommodate, statistical efficiency, computational demands, and the skills required from analysts fitting the model. The last part of the paper presents simulation results, which compare the approaches when estimating linear regression coefficients from a stratified sample in terms of bias, variance, and coverage rates. It concludes with a short discussion of pending issues.
Release date: 2011-12-21
55. A Bayesian analysis of small area probabilities under a constraint Archived
Articles and reports: 12-001-X201100211603
Description:
In many sample surveys there are items requesting binary response (e.g., obese, not obese) from a number of small areas. Inference is required about the probability for a positive response (e.g., obese) in each area, the probability being the same for all individuals in each area and different across areas. Because of the sparseness of the data within areas, direct estimators are not reliable, and there is a need to use data from other areas to improve inference for a specific area. Essentially, a priori the areas are assumed to be similar, and a hierarchical Bayesian model, the standard beta-binomial model, is a natural choice. The innovation is that a practitioner may have much-needed additional prior information about a linear combination of the probabilities. For example, a weighted average of the probabilities is a parameter, and information can be elicited about this parameter, thereby making the Bayesian paradigm appropriate. We have modified the standard beta-binomial model for small areas to incorporate the prior information on the linear combination of the probabilities, which we call a constraint. Thus, there are three cases. The practitioner (a) does not specify a constraint, (b) specifies a constraint and the parameter completely, and (c) specifies a constraint and information which can be used to construct a prior distribution for the parameter. The griddy Gibbs sampler is used to fit the models. To illustrate our method, we use an example on obesity of children in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in which the small areas are formed by crossing school (middle, high), ethnicity (white, black, Mexican) and gender (male, female). We use a simulation study to assess some of the statistical features of our method. We have shown that the gain in precision beyond (a) is in the order with (b) larger than (c).
Release date: 2011-12-21
56. Small area estimation under transformation to linearity Archived
Articles and reports: 12-001-X201100111446
Description:
Small area estimation based on linear mixed models can be inefficient when the underlying relationships are non-linear. In this paper we introduce SAE techniques for variables that can be modelled linearly following a non-linear transformation. In particular, we extend the model-based direct estimator of Chandra and Chambers (2005, 2009) to data that are consistent with a linear mixed model in the logarithmic scale, using model calibration to define appropriate weights for use in this estimator. Our results show that the resulting transformation-based estimator is both efficient and robust with respect to the distribution of the random effects in the model. An application to business survey data demonstrates the satisfactory performance of the method.
Release date: 2011-06-29
57. The use of estimating equations to perform a calibration on complex parameters Archived
Articles and reports: 12-001-X201100111451
Description:
In the calibration method proposed by Deville and Särndal (1992), the calibration equations take only exact estimates of auxiliary variable totals into account. This article examines other parameters besides totals for calibration. Parameters that are considered complex include the ratio, median or variance of auxiliary variables.
Release date: 2011-06-29
58. Bayesian penalized spline model-based inference for finite population proportion in unequal probability sampling Archived
Articles and reports: 12-001-X201000111250
Description:
We propose a Bayesian Penalized Spline Predictive (BPSP) estimator for a finite population proportion in an unequal probability sampling setting. This new method allows the probabilities of inclusion to be directly incorporated into the estimation of a population proportion, using a probit regression of the binary outcome on the penalized spline of the inclusion probabilities. The posterior predictive distribution of the population proportion is obtained using Gibbs sampling. The advantages of the BPSP estimator over the Hájek (HK), Generalized Regression (GR), and parametric model-based prediction estimators are demonstrated by simulation studies and a real example in tax auditing. Simulation studies show that the BPSP estimator is more efficient, and its 95% credible interval provides better confidence coverage with shorter average width than the HK and GR estimators, especially when the population proportion is close to zero or one or when the sample is small. Compared to linear model-based predictive estimators, the BPSP estimators are robust to model misspecification and influential observations in the sample.
Release date: 2010-06-29
59. Pseudo empirical likelihood inference for multiple surveys and multiple-frame surveys Archived
Articles and reports: 11-536-X200900110806
Description:
Recent work using a pseudo empirical likelihood (EL) method for finite population inferences with complex survey data focused primarily on a single survey sample, non-stratified or stratified, with considerable effort devoted to computational procedures. In this talk we present a pseudo empirical likelihood approach to inference from multiple surveys and multiple-frame surveys, two commonly encountered problems in survey practice. We show that inferences about the common parameter of interest and the effective use of various types of auxiliary information can be conveniently carried out through the constrained maximization of joint pseudo EL function. We obtain asymptotic results which are used for constructing the pseudo EL ratio confidence intervals, either using a chi-square approximation or a bootstrap calibration. All related computational problems can be handled using existing algorithms on stratified sampling after suitable re-formulation.
Release date: 2009-08-11
60. A Bayesian allocation of undecided voters Archived
Articles and reports: 12-001-X200800110606
Description:
Data from election polls in the US are typically presented in two-way categorical tables, and there are many polls before the actual election in November. For example, in the Buckeye State Poll in 1998 for governor there are three polls, January, April and October; the first category represents the candidates (e.g., Fisher, Taft and other) and the second category represents the current status of the voters (likely to vote and not likely to vote for governor of Ohio). There is a substantial number of undecided voters for one or both categories in all three polls, and we use a Bayesian method to allocate the undecided voters to the three candidates. This method permits modeling different patterns of missingness under ignorable and nonignorable assumptions, and a multinomial-Dirichlet model is used to estimate the cell probabilities which can help to predict the winner. We propose a time-dependent nonignorable nonresponse model for the three tables. Here, a nonignorable nonresponse model is centered on an ignorable nonresponse model to induce some flexibility and uncertainty about ignorabilty or nonignorability. As competitors we also consider two other models, an ignorable and a nonignorable nonresponse model. These latter two models assume a common stochastic process to borrow strength over time. Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to fit the models. We also construct a parameter that can potentially be used to predict the winner among the candidates in the November election.
Release date: 2008-06-26

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Analysis (112)

Analysis (112) (110 to 120 of 112 results)

111. Some estimators for domain totals Archived
Articles and reports: 12-001-X197500100004
Description: A major concern in large scale surveys is the problem of sub-population estimation (domain estimation). This paper presents a study of four estimators for estimating domain totals. The domain considered in the study is an area type of domain, that is, a domain consisting of a combination of a certain number of area units belonging to different strata. This paper uses some actual data and some fictitious data to compare variances and mean square errors of the four estimators.
Release date: 1975-06-16
112. Components of variance model in multi-stage stratified samples Archived
Articles and reports: 12-001-X197500100007
Description: There are several multi-stage sample designs in various countries, such as the Current Population Survey in U.S.A., Labour Survey in Sweden, and the General Household Survey in United Kingdom. From each survey, estimated totals of Employed, Unemployed, and other characteristics may be obtained.
The Canadian Labour Force Survey is a monthly household survey in which the dwelling is the ultimate unit of sampling requiring two to four stages of selection. Each province is split up into strata and sampling units at various stages so that the sampling variance contains up to four components of variance whose actual formulae and estimation formulae are derived, utilizing those formerly derived by Yates and Grundy [12]. Ratio estimation is employed and the formulas are modified accordingly. To analyze the components of variance, it is necessary to express them in terms of components of sampling ratios and the sizes of sampling units at the various stages at provincial and national levels and approximate variance functions are thus derived.
Release date: 1975-06-16

Reference (8)

Reference (8) ((8 results))

1. The Potential Use of Remote Sensing to Produce Field Crop Statistics at Statistics Canada Archived
Surveys and statistical programs – Documentation: 11-522-X201300014259
Description:
In an effort to reduce response burden on farm operators, Statistics Canada is studying alternative approaches to telephone surveys for producing field crop estimates. One option is to publish harvested area and yield estimates in September as is currently done, but to calculate them using models based on satellite and weather data, and data from the July telephone survey. However before adopting such an approach, a method must be found which produces estimates with a sufficient level of accuracy. Research is taking place to investigate different possibilities. Initial research results and issues to consider are discussed in this paper.
Release date: 2014-10-31
2. A note on identifiers in the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth Archived
Surveys and statistical programs – Documentation: 12-002-X20040027035
Description:
As part of the processing of the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth (NLSCY) cycle 4 data, historical revisions have been made to the data of the first 3 cycles, either to correct errors or to update the data. During processing, particular attention was given to the PERSRUK (Person Identifier) and the FIELDRUK (Household Identifier). The same level of attention has not been given to the other identifiers that are included in the data base, the CHILDID (Person identifier) and the _IDHD01 (Household identifier). These identifiers have been created for the public files and can also be found in the master files by default. The PERSRUK should be used to link records between files and the FIELDRUK to determine the household when using the master files.
Release date: 2004-10-05
3. Survey of Financial Security - Methodology for Estimating the Value of Employer Pension Plan Benefits Archived
Surveys and statistical programs – Documentation: 13F0026M2001003
Description:
Initial results from the Survey of Financial Security (SFS), which provides information on the net worth of Canadians, were released on March 15 2001, in The daily. The survey collected information on the value of the financial and non-financial assets owned by each family unit and on the amount of their debt.
Statistics Canada is currently refining this initial estimate of net worth by adding to it an estimate of the value of benefits accrued in employer pension plans. This is an important addition to any asset and debt survey as, for many family units, it is likely to be one of the largest assets. With the aging of the population, information on pension accumulations is greatly needed to better understand the financial situation of those nearing retirement. These updated estimates of the Survey of Financial Security will be released in late fall 2001.
The process for estimating the value of employer pension plan benefits is a complex one. This document describes the methodology for estimating that value, for the following groups: a) persons who belonged to an RPP at the time of the survey (referred to as current plan members); b) persons who had previously belonged to an RPP and either left the money in the plan or transferred it to a new plan; c) persons who are receiving RPP benefits.
This methodology was proposed by Hubert Frenken and Michael Cohen. The former has many years of experience with Statistics Canada working with data on employer pension plans; the latter is a principal with the actuarial consulting firm William M. Mercer. Earlier this year, Statistics Canada carried out a public consultation on the proposed methodology. This report includes updates made as a result of feedback received from data users.
Release date: 2001-09-05
4. Survey of Financial Security - Estimating the Value of Employer Pension Plan Benefits - A Discussion Paper Archived
Surveys and statistical programs – Documentation: 13F0026M2001002
Description:
The Survey of Financial Security (SFS) will provide information on the net worth of Canadians. In order to do this, information was collected - in May and June 1999 - on the value of the assets and debts of each of the families or unattached individuals in the sample. The value of one particular asset is not easy to determine, or to estimate. That is the present value of the amount people have accrued in their employer pension plan. These plans are often called registered pension plans (RPP), as they must be registered with Canada Customs and Revenue Agency. Although some RPP members receive estimates of the value of their accrued benefit, in most cases plan members would not know this amount. However, it is likely to be one of the largest assets for many family units. And, as the baby boomers approach retirement, information on their pension accumulations is much needed to better understand their financial readiness for this transition.
The intent of this paper is to: present, for discussion, a methodology for estimating the present value of employer pension plan benefits for the Survey of Financial Security; and to seek feedback on the proposed methodology. This document proposes a methodology for estimating the value of employer pension plan benefits for the following groups:a) persons who belonged to an RPP at the time of the survey (referred to as current plan members); b) persons who had previously belonged to an RPP and either left the money in the plan or transferred it to a new plan; c) persons who are receiving RPP benefits.
Release date: 2001-02-07
5. The challenges of using administrative data to support policy-relevant research: The example of the longitudinal immigration database (IMDB) Archived
Surveys and statistical programs – Documentation: 11-522-X19990015642
Description:
The Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB) links immigration and taxation administrative records into a comprehensive source of data on the labour market behaviour of the landed immigrant population in Canada. It covers the period 1980 to 1995 and will be updated annually starting with the 1996 tax year in 1999. Statistics Canada manages the database on behalf of a federal-provincial consortium led by Citizenship and Immigration Canada. The IMDB was created specifically to respond to the need for detailed and reliable data on the performance and impact of immigration policies and programs. It is the only source of data at Statistics Canada that provides a direct link between immigration policy levers and the economic performance of immigrants. The paper will examine the issues related to the development of a longitudinal database combining administrative records to support policy-relevant research and analysis. Discussion will focus specifically on the methodological, conceptual, analytical and privacy issues involved in the creation and ongoing development of this database. The paper will also touch briefly on research findings, which illustrate the policy outcome links the IMDB allows policy-makers to investigate.
Release date: 2000-03-02
6. The U.S. manufacturing plant ownership change database: Research possibilities Archived
Surveys and statistical programs – Documentation: 11-522-X19990015650
Description:
The U.S. Manufacturing Plant Ownership Change Database (OCD) was constructed using plant-level data taken from the Census Bureau's Longitudinal Research Database (LRD). It contains data on all manufacturing plants that have experienced ownership change at least once during the period 1963-92. This paper reports the status of the OCD and discuss its research possibilities. For an empirical demonstration, data taken from the database are used to study the effects of ownership changes on plant closure.
Release date: 2000-03-02
7. Uncertainties in estimates of radon lung cancer risks Archived
Surveys and statistical programs – Documentation: 11-522-X19990015658
Description:
Radon, a naturally occurring gas found at some level in most homes, is an established risk factor for human lung cancer. The U.S. National Research Council (1999) has recently completed a comprehensive evaluation of the health risks of residential exposure to radon, and developed models for projecting radon lung cancer risks in the general population. This analysis suggests that radon may play a role in the etiology of 10-15% of all lung cancer cases in the United States, although these estimates are subject to considerable uncertainty. In this article, we present a partial analysis of uncertainty and variability in estimates of lung cancer risk due to residential exposure to radon in the United States using a general framework for the analysis of uncertainty and variability that we have developed previously. Specifically, we focus on estimates of the age-specific excess relative risk (ERR) and lifetime relative risk (LRR), both of which vary substantially among individuals.
Release date: 2000-03-02
8. A Comparison of Census Geographic Areas of Canada and the United States Archived
Geographic files and documentation: 92F0138M1993001
Geography: Canada
Description:
The Geography Divisions of Statistics Canada and the U.S. Bureau of the Census have commenced a cooperative research program in order to foster an improved and expanded perspective on geographic areas and their relevance. One of the major objectives is to determine a common geographic area to form a geostatistical basis for cross-border research, analysis and mapping.
This report, which represents the first stage of the research, provides a list of comparable pairs of Canadian and U.S. standard geographic areas based on current definitions. Statistics Canada and the U.S. Bureau of the Census have two basic types of standard geographic entities: legislative/administrative areas (called "legal" entities in the U.S.) and statistical areas.
The preliminary pairing of geographic areas are based on face-value definitions only. The definitions are based on the June 4, 1991 Census of Population and Housing for Canada and the April 1, 1990 Census of Population and Housing for the U.S.A. The important aspect is the overall conceptual comparability, not the precise numerical thresholds used for delineating the areas.
Data users should use this report as a general guide to compare the census geographic areas of Canada and the United States, and should be aware that differences in settlement patterns and population levels preclude a precise one-to-one relationship between conceptually similar areas. The geographic areas compared in this report provide a framework for further empirical research and analysis.
Release date: 1999-03-05

Date modified:: 2026-09-12