Are we headed toward a teacher surplus or a teacher shortage?

This article attempts to determine how the future retirement of elementary and secondary school teachers will affect the hiring of new teachers, given the aging of the teaching force. Using socio-demographic analysis, future requirements for new teachers are determined according to three scenarios regarding retirement age, namely, retirement at age 55, 60 or 65, assuming that the pupil-teacher ratio will remain constant. At present, budget cuts are forcing some educational institutions to reduce their teaching staff, but in a few years, when teachers currently on staff retire, the situation could improve. What, then, will be the hiring prospects in the field of education in the future? This analysis is based on data from the October 1995 Labour Force Survey. It also focuses on the situation facing managers in the education sector, for they will have to decide how to handle the demand for teachers. In addition, the findings may assist young people in choosing their careers.