Canada's population estimates, first quarter 2026

The demographic estimates for the first quarter of 2026 released today are considered preliminary and will be updated following the standard procedure followed by Statistics Canada for decades. They are based on 2021 Census counts, adjusted for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated reserves and settlements. To these counts, the population growth estimates for the period from May 11, 2021, to the date of the estimate are added. These estimates are not to be confused with the 2026 Census population counts, which will be released on February 10, 2027.

Statistics Canada's demographic estimates are updated every year through its usual process, alongside the annual September release for the second quarter. Several factors may explain why preliminary estimates differ from the updated and final estimates released later. For example, if there is a long gap between the expiration of one non-permanent resident permit and the issuance of the next, it may result in a decrease of one person in the preliminary estimates; however, this would not be reflected in the updated and final estimates. Moreover, the schedule for updated and final estimates provides more time for receiving late registrations of births and deaths, as well as for using more complete data sources, such as annual tax files used to measure interprovincial migration.

Canada's population clock (real-time model)

Canada's population clock (real-time model) was updated today with the most recent data from quarterly population estimates released by Statistics Canada.

Canada's population clock is an interactive learning tool aiming to give Canadians a sense of the pace of the country's population renewal. The population estimates and census counts remain the measures used by various government programs.

Definitions

For the purpose of calculating rates, the denominator is the average population during the period (the average of the start-of-period and end-of-period populations). For the sake of brevity, the terms growth, population growth and population growth rate have the same meaning.

Population growth or total growth in Canada is equal to natural increase (births minus deaths) plus international migratory increase (immigrants plus net non-permanent residents minus net emigration). At the provincial and territorial level, total population growth also includes interprovincial migratory increase.

Net international migration refers to the total number of moves between Canada and abroad that result in a change in the usual place of residence. It is calculated by adding immigrants, returning emigrants and net non-permanent residents, then subtracting emigrants.

An immigrant refers to a person who is a permanent resident or a landed immigrant. Such a person has been granted the right to live in Canada permanently by immigration authorities. Persons who are born abroad to a Canadian parent are not immigrants but are included in the returning emigrant component. For Statistics Canada's Demographic Estimates Program, the terms immigrant, landed immigrant and permanent resident refer to the same concept.

Non-permanent resident refers to a person from another country with a usual place of residence in Canada and who has a work or study permit, or who has claimed refugee status (asylum claimants, protected persons and related groups). Family members living with work or study permit holders are also included unless these family members are already Canadian citizens, landed immigrants (permanent residents) or non-permanent residents themselves. For Statistics Canada's Demographic Estimates Program, the terms non-permanent resident and temporary immigrant refer to the same concept. Caution should be exercised when comparing data on non-permanent residents from Statistics Canada's Demographic Estimates Program with temporary residents and asylum claimants from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC), due to the different objectives of the two organizations.

Acknowledgements

The Demographic Estimates Program of Statistics Canada is grateful for the ongoing partnership with IRCC, which greatly contributes to the accuracy of the estimations of immigrants and non-permanent residents.