Technical Guide on Demographic Estimates at Statistics Canada

Acknowledgements

The completion of this publication and the dissemination of the annual demographic estimates rests on the assiduous and meticulous work of the members of the Population Estimates Section of the Centre for Demography.

The Demographic Estimates Program of Statistics Canada is grateful for the ongoing partnership with Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, which greatly contributes to the accuracy of the estimations of immigrants and non-permanent residents.

The contribution of editorial, communications, translation and dissemination services staff of Statistics Canada was essential to the project’s achievement and is appreciated.

Foreword

For decades, Statistics Canada's Demographic Estimates Program has been making a difference in the lives of Canadians, making significant contributions to the calculation of transfer payments between the Government of Canada and the provinces and territories. In 2024, over $80 billion was redistributed, based in part on estimates provided by Statistics Canada to Finance Canada, to support policies, programs and initiatives that ensure the well-being of the Canadian population.

The Demographic Estimates Program also supports other laws and programs for Canadians, including the Fair Representation Act, early learning and childcare programs in Canada, and student financial assistance programs. 

Also a cornerstone of the national statistical system, demographic estimates also serve as the denominator for many key social and economic indicators produced by Statistics Canada, such as the unemployment rate, various crime and health rates, and gross domestic product per capita.

The Demographic Estimates Program is continuously updated to take into account national and international events that may affect the size and growth of the Canadian population. The Centre for demography updates its data sources and estimation methods on a regular basis, in partnership with the provinces and territories and other key program partners, including expert demographers.

Once every five years, population estimates are matched to the most recent census figures. The Census of Population Program and its coverage studies are therefore fundamental foundations for the estimates, and for maintaining their quality over time.

This document will provide readers with a complete picture on the data and methods used by the Population Estimates Program, and in particular on the estimation of non-permanent residents, a subject which has taken on marked importance since the Covid-19 pandemic.

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