Demographic Documents
Ongoing work on international migration statistics at Statistics Canada

The demographic estimates released quarterly and annually by Statistics Canada constitute fundamental data for calculating many indicators, such as the unemployment rate, gross domestic product, as well as various statistics on productivity, health, and crime. They also play a central role in the redistribution of billions of dollars each year between the federal government and the provinces and territories. In addition, they support the implementation of numerous laws and public policies, particularly in areas such as child services and democratic representation.

The Demographic Estimates Program (DEP) continuously adapts its methods, while integrating new data sources when available, in order to maintain the quality and relevance of its estimates over time. Each methodological adjustment is subject to consultations with key data providers and users. More specifically, the DEP meets annually with provincial and territorial statistical focal points to present its priorities and upcoming methodological updates. It also submits its methodological development projects to Statistics Canada’s Advisory Committee on Demographic Statistics and Studies, composed of demography specialists from academia and other statistical organizations. When changes to methods are adopted, they are documented through technical presentations during releases and in a detailed technical guide available on the Statistics Canada website.

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, Canada has undergone major demographic transformations. After recording record population growth in 2023, driven by unprecedented levels of permanent and temporary immigration, the country observed a population decline in 2025. This new trend is explained by a decrease in the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs) following changes to government policies on international migration.

In this dynamic context, the DEP has intensified its adaptation efforts, both in terms of data sources and methods for producing and certifying estimates. Among recent updates, the DEP has:

• rapidly implemented adjustments to its production methods at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic to account for its effects on preliminary estimates, which could not have been captured by the usual methods. The nature of these changes was also documented and made public in the following document: Technical Supplement: Production of Demographic Estimates for the Second Quarter of 2020 in the Context of COVID-19;
• incorporated the concept of gender into demographic estimates, first introduced in the 2021 Census of Population;
• refined its methods to better estimate the place of residence of NPRs and to better account for extensions of work and study permits using administrative data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC);
• released new estimates of the number of NPRs in Canada;
• published numerous dashboards on demographic estimates and components of demographic growth;
• expanded its offering of demographic estimates to finer geographic levels by publishing population estimates for census subdivisions;
• refined its methods for calculating estimates of the number of internal migrants by age and gender, making greater use of direct data sources rather than modelling;
• published an updated and comprehensive version of the methodology used to produce all its data products, along with a quality analysis, in the Technical Guide to Demographic Estimates at Statistics Canada;
• developed new communication products to improve users’ understanding of DEP data products, such as explanatory video and infographics.

The DEP continues to work on acquiring new data sources and updating its methods. Over the coming months and years, with respect to international migration, the DEP plans to undertake the following projects:

Fall 2026 – Winter 2027

• continue refining demographic adjustments related to extensions of work and study permits using administrative data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC);
• release estimates of the number of NPRs at subprovincial levels, including for census metropolitan areas (CMAs) and census agglomerations (CAs). These data will help better understand the factors underlying population growth in different urban regions of the country.

Fall 2028 – Winter 2029

• leverage a new data source: entry and exit data held by the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA), acquired in fall 2024 and currently under evaluation. A progress report is being released today to inform DEP users about the potential of this database to update estimates of emigration and the number of NPRs;
• examine the hypothesis that a population of individuals without status may be residing in Canada, including, for example, individuals who entered legally (such as with a study or work permit), did not obtain an extension, and did not leave the country after their status expired, or individuals who entered the country without status;
• refine estimates of interprovincial migration among recently admitted immigrants. These individuals may move between provinces or territories shortly after arrival, often before filing their first tax return—tax data from the Canada Revenue Agency currently being the main source of information for measuring these internal migrations.

In summary, the DEP is an evolving program that regularly updates its statistical and analytical products through established and transparent processes. In a context where migration policies are rapidly evolving in Canada, this process will help maintain the high quality and relevance of demographic statistics related to international migration.

This document is part of this evolving approach and will be updated periodically to reflect the integration of new data sources, the development of methodological updates, and changing user needs. The governance framework established by the DEP, based in particular on regular consultations with provincial and territorial statistical focal points as well as its advisory committee composed of experts, ensures continuous feedback on the program’s directions. Building on the recognized credibility of its estimates, both in Canada and internationally, Statistics Canada intends to continue playing a leading role in producing high-quality demographic statistics, essential for demographic analysis, fulfilling various legislative mandates, and supporting public policy development.