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Experimental indexes of economic activity in the provinces and territories, September 2022

Released: 2023-01-16

The three-month moving averages for economic activity increased in 7 of the 10 provinces and territories reported for September 2022, according to the principal components analysis-based experimental activity index. The largest gains were in Saskatchewan, Alberta and Manitoba. The largest declines were in Prince Edward Island and the Northwest Territories.

From July to September 2022, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for Canada was between 0.1% and 0.3% per month, and it was more positive than growth in employment, which declined in July and August. GDP growth came from goods industries and service industries from July to September, but mining, oil and gas as well as agriculture production were notable contributors. For the activity indexes, growth accelerated in August and September compared with June and July in the Prairie provinces where agriculture and mining, oil and gas extraction are important contributors to provincial economies.

Over the July to September period, growth in the activity indexes tended to rise with changes from month to month being positive for most provinces and territories. For September, 7 of 10 provinces and territories had an increase in the three-month moving average growth rates compared with a month earlier.


  Note to readers

The experimental indexes were developed to address the need for a comprehensive measure of economic activity at the subnational level in advance of the annual estimates of gross domestic product for the provinces and territories.

After consultation with key stakeholders, Statistics Canada decided to update the indexes every three months. The next release will cover the period from October to December 2022. The releases will continue to report on monthly series. The move to quarterly production is a first step in evaluating the program to determine how best to continue providing a sub-annual measure of overall economic change.

Two statistical techniques, the principal component analysis (PCA) and the application of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), are used to combine a range of economic indicators from a number of areas (e.g., the labour market, merchandise trade, manufacturing production, and wholesale and retail trade) into composite indicators.

Both PCA- and LASSO-based indexes are available in table 36-10-0633-01.

Contact information

For more information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact us (toll-free 1-800-263-1136; 514-283-8300; infostats@statcan.gc.ca) or Media Relations (statcan.mediahotline-ligneinfomedias.statcan@statcan.gc.ca).

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