Experimental indexes of economic activity in the provinces and territories
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Released: 2022-10-12
According to the principal components analysis (PCA)-based experimental activity index, the three-month moving averages for economic activity increased in 6 of the 10 provinces and territories reported in June 2022. The largest gains were in Alberta, Prince Edward Island, Manitoba, and Nova Scotia, while the largest declines where in Northwest Territories, Saskatchewan, and New Brunswick.
Over the spring of 2022, monthly real gross domestic product (GDP) was strong, particularly in April while employment was stable. COVID-19 restrictions were reduced for internal and international travel, contributing to increases in economic activity, particularly in client-facing industries such as tourism-related service industries. This increase was reflected at the national level in monthly GDP estimates, particularly for April and June 2022. For the activity indexes, April or May tend to have a higher growth rate for the three-month moving average, similarly reflecting the timing with which real GDP growth was strong and when travel restrictions were reduced.
Based on data for the first half of 2022, the growth in economic activity is decelerating in 6 of the 10 provinces and territories where estimates are reported. The activity indexes are designed to correlate with GDP growth, and year-to-date calculations can provide an early indication for how growth in annual GDP growth may change in the regions. Year-to-date calculations from the activity indexes indicate the largest deceleration is in Northwest Territories, followed by Saskatchewan and Quebec. The largest acceleration is in Newfoundland and Labrador and Alberta.
Note to readers
The experimental indexes were developed to address the need for a comprehensive measure of economic activity at the subnational level in advance of the annual estimates of gross domestic product for the provinces and territories.
After consultation with key stakeholders, Statistics Canada will begin updating the indexes every three months. The next release will cover the period from July to September 2022. The releases will continue to report on monthly series. The move to quarterly production is a first step in evaluating the program to determine how best to continue providing a sub-annual measure of overall economic change.
Two statistical techniques, the principal components analysis (PCA) and the application of the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO), are used to combine a range of economic indicators from a number of areas (e.g., the labour market, merchandise trade, manufacturing production, and wholesale and retail trade) into composite indicators.
Both PCA- and LASSO-based indexes are available in table 36-10-0633-01.
Contact information
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