Introduction

View the most recent version.

Archived Content

Information identified as archived is provided for reference, research or recordkeeping purposes. It is not subject to the Government of Canada Web Standards and has not been altered or updated since it was archived. Please "contact us" to request a format other than those available.

Archived

This page has been archived on the Web.

This report describes the methodology used to calculate the projection parameters and develop the various projection assumptions for the Population Projections for Canada (2013 to 2063),  Provinces and Territories (2013 to 2038). Previously combined with the analysis and data tables in a single publication (Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 91-520-X), the description of the methods and assumptions is presented here in a separate, more detailed document.

This change is especially opportune, since this edition of the population projections contains many innovations, including the following:

• a more extensive consultation with demography experts;
• a new method of projecting fertility;
• distinct fertility parameters for non-permanent residents;
• a new method of projecting interprovincial migration;
• an enhanced method of projecting mortality;
• strategies for taking account of the residual deviation component present in intercensal estimates.

The report contains eight chapters, which provide a detailed description of the methods and various analyses of the components of population growth and the factors likely to affect their evolution in the years ahead. Chapter 1 describes Statistics Canada’s cohort-component projection model. Chapter 2 outlines a new initiative: the Opinion Survey on Future Demographic Trends. This survey is part of a broader consultation process designed to incorporate more expert opinion into the assumption development process. The following six chapters cover the various components of population growth, one by one, in the following order: fertility, mortality, immigration, emigration, non-permanent residents and interprovincial migration. The main report, containing the projection results (Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 91-520-X), includes a summary of the projection assumptions and scenarios.