Chapter 6: Projection of emigration

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By Nora Bohnert, Patrice Dion and Jonathan Chagnon

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• Introduction
• Emigration components
• References
• Notes

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Introduction

According to the Population Estimates Program (PEP), emigration consists of emigrants, returning emigrants and net temporary emigrants. Together, these three components are estimated to have contributed to a relatively small portion of population change in recent history.

Of all the demographic components that are used in the PEP, these components are the most difficult to estimate with precision. Since there is no legal provision in Canada to maintain records for persons leaving the country (on a temporary or permanent basis), indirect and constantly evolving techniques are used for the estimation of the number of persons leaving the country. For this reason, available statistics regarding these three components have historically been of a lower quality than other components.^Note 1

Emigration components

Emigration

Emigrants are defined as Canadian citizens or landed immigrants who have left Canada to establish a permanent residence in another country. While the annual number of emigrants fluctuates from year to year, it remained relatively stable in recent years, averaging approximately 48,400 in the 1990s and 55,000 from 2000/2001 to 2011/2012. Respondents to the Opinion Survey on Future Demographic Trends were not asked to provide precise future estimates of emigration, but rather to provide open-ended comments on the component. Generally, respondents expressed the sentiment that emigration is a minor component of population projections in the case of Canada. Overall, large changes in the levels of this component in the future were not anticipated by survey respondents.

While variation in past emigration trends appear to be, in absolute terms, relatively small (at least in comparison to other components of population growth), the measurement of emigration introduces uncertainty in the projection of its future levels. Indeed, the difficulties in measuring emigration and the constantly positive sign of the residual component in the intercensal estimates (reflecting an overestimation of the population in postcensal estimates) indicate that a non-negligible portion of the residual is composed of non-recorded emigrants.^Note 2 In fact, estimates of emigration from the Reverse Record Check (RRC) census coverage surveys for the periods 2001/2006 and 2006/2011 are considerably higher than those from the PEP for the same periods.^Note 3 Even though these differences are statistically significant in only two provinces—Ontario and British Columbia—these two account for approximately three-quarters of Canada’s estimated emigration in recent years.^Note 4

To reflect the uncertainty associated with emigration estimates, three distinct assumptions have been formulated for the provinces of Ontario and British Columbia. Emigration assumptions are based on age and sex-specific rates estimated in the reference period 2002/2003 to 2011/2012. For the medium emigration assumption, adjustment factors were calculated based on a ratio of the number of emigrants from the PEP to the number estimated from the RRC for each of the periods 2001/2002 to 2005/2006 and 2006/2007 to 2010/2011. These factors were used to modify the number of emigrants estimated in the reference period 2002/2003 to 2011/2012, the factors for the period 2001/2002 to 2005/2006 being applied to estimates of the period 2002/2003 to 2005/2006, and those for the period 2006/2007 to 2010/2011 being applied to the period 2006/2007 to 2011/2012.^Note 5 These modified estimates were then used to compute the average emigration rates by age, sex and province.

Low and high emigration assumptions for Ontario and British Columbia were formulated in the same manner, using this time the bounds of the 95% confidence interval of the RRC emigration estimates. In all of the other provinces and in the territories, a single emigration assumption is formulated based on average emigration rates estimated from the PEP in the period 2002/2003 to 2011/2012. For all emigration assumptions, a single set of rates is held constant throughout the projection period.

Returning emigration

Returning emigrants are defined as Canadian citizens or landed immigrants who, having previously emigrated from Canada, have subsequently returned to Canada or re-established permanent residence. The annual number of returning emigrants has increased somewhat over the last two decades. From 1990/1991 to 1999/2000, the average annual number of returning emigrants was estimated to be 17,300, while the average for the period 2000/2001 to 2011/2012 was estimated to be 31,900.

To reflect recent trends, a single assumption for return emigration is formulated using the average rates estimated through the PEP for the period 2002/2003 to 2011/2012. This assumption is 1.0 return emigrant per thousand population at the national level.

Net temporary emigration

Temporary emigrants are Canadian citizens or landed immigrants who are living abroad temporarily and no longer have a usual place of residence in Canada. Data available on this component provide an annual balance that is the result of two flows: persons leaving Canada temporarily and those returning to Canada after living temporarily outside of the country.^Note 6 As with the other components of emigration, the assumption for net temporary emigration is formulated using the average rate observed over the period 2002/2003 to 2011/2012 by age, sex and province/territory. At the Canada level, the net rate equals 0.7 temporary emigrants per thousand.

Net emigration

Net emigration is calculated as emigrants, minus return emigrants, plus net temporary emigrants. Since 1991/1992, net emigration, as estimated through the PEP, has ranged between 1.0 and 2.0 emigrants per thousand, with a slight declining trend in the rate observed since the 2000s. With the adjustments made to Ontario and British Columbia, the net emigration assumptions for Canada as a whole are slightly higher than the historical average (1.4), ranging between 1.6 and 2.1 net emigrations per thousand.

Assumptions for each of the components of emigration are summarized in Table 6.1.

References

Statistics Canada. 2012. Population and Family Estimation Methods at Statistics Canada, Catalogue no. 91-528-X.

Notes