Annual Demographic Estimates: Canada, Provinces and Territories, 2023
Appendices

Appendix A: Glossary

Age

1. Age as of July 1.

Aging (of a population)

1. An increase in the number of old persons as a percentage of the total population.

Average age

1. The average age of a population is the average age of all its members.

Census coverage

1. Census net undercoverage: Difference between undercoverage and overcoverage.
2. Overcoverage: Number of persons who should not have been counted in the census or who were counted more than once.
3. Undercoverage: Number of persons who were intended to be enumerated in a census but were not.

Cohort

1. Represents a group of persons who have experienced a specific demographic event during a given year. In the cast of births, persons born within a specified year are referred to as a generation.

Components of demographic growth

1. All demographic events (births, deaths and migrations) that influence the size or the age and gender composition of the population.

Demographic dependency ratio

1. The ratio of the combined population aged from 0 to 14 years old and the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged from 15 to 64 years old.

Emigrant

1. Canadian citizen or immigrant who has left Canada to establish a residence in another country, involving a change in usual place of residence. Emigration may be either long-term or short-term.

Error of closure

1. Difference between the postcensal estimate at the census date and the results of the census adjusted for census net undercoverage (including adjustment for incompletely enumerated reserves and settlements).

Gender

1. Gender refers to an individual's personal and social identity as a man, woman or non binary person (a person who is not exclusively a man or a woman).

   Gender includes the following concepts:

   • gender identity, which refers to the gender that a person feels internally and individually;
   • gender expression, which refers to the way a person presents their gender, regardless of their gender identity, through body language, aesthetic choices or accessories (e.g., clothes, hairstyle and makeup), which may have traditionally been associated with a specific gender.

   A person's gender may differ from their sex at birth, and from what is indicated on their current identification or legal documents such as their birth certificate, passport or driver's licence. A person's gender may change over time.

   Some people may not identify with a specific gender.

Generation

1. Unless otherwise specified, refers here to a group of persons born within a given period. The 2001 generation represents people born during the year 2001.

Immigrant

1. An immigrant refers to a person who is a permanent resident or a landed immigrant. Such a person has been granted the right to live in Canada permanently by immigration authorities. Persons who are born abroad to a Canadian parent are not immigrants but are included in the returning emigrant component.

   For the Centre for Demography, the terms “immigrant”, “landed immigrant” and “permanent resident” refer to the same concept.

Incompletely enumerated reserves and settlements

1. Reserves and settlements for which enumeration either was not permitted or could not be completed for various reasons, such as evacuations because of forest fires or access restrictions due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

International migration

1. International migration represents movement of population between Canada and a foreign country which involves a change in the usual place of residence. A distinction is made with regard to immigrants, emigrants, returning emigrants and net non-permanent residents.

Interprovincial migration

1. Interprovincial migration represents all movement from one province or territory to another involving a change in the usual place of residence. A person who takes up residence in another province or territory is an out-migrant with reference to the province or territory of origin and an in-migrant with reference to the province or territory of destination.

Long-term emigrant

1. Citizen or landed immigrant who has left the country to take up long-term residence in another country.

Long-term returning emigrant

1. Canadian citizen or landed immigrant who has already emigrated from Canada on a long-term basis and subsequently returned to live in Canada.

Median age

1. The median age is an age "x", such that exactly one half of the population is older than "x" and the other half is younger than "x".

Men+

1. The gender category "Men＋" includes men (and/or boys), as well as some non-binary persons.

Natural increase

1. Variation in the population size over a given period as a result of the difference between the numbers of births and deaths.

Net emigration

1. Net emigration is obtained according to the following formula: Emigrants - Returning emigrants. For estimates from 1991 to June 2016, net emigration is obtained according to the following formula: (Emigrants + Net temporary emigration) - Returning emigrants.

Net international migration

1. Net international migration is obtained according to the following formula: Immigrants + Net non-permanent residents – Net emigration.

Net interprovincial migration

1. Net interprovincial migration represents the difference between in-migrants and out-migrants for a given province or territory.

Net non-permanent residents

1. Net non-permanent residents represent the difference between the inflows and outflows of non-permanent residents to Canada between two dates for a given province or territory.

Non-permanent residents

1. Non-permanent resident refers to a person from another country with a usual place of residence in Canada and who has a work or study permit or who has claimed refugee status (asylum claimant).

   Family members living with work or study permit holders are also included unless these family members are already Canadian citizens, landed immigrants (permanent residents), or non-permanent residents themselves.

   For the Centre for Demography, the terms “non-permanent resident” and “temporary immigrant” refer to the same concept.

Non-permanent residents, inflows

1. The number of people entering Canada to work, study or claim asylum status along with their family members who are not Canadian citizens or landed immigrants (permanent residents).

Non-permanent residents, outflows

1. The number of work and study permit holders leaving Canada, along with their family members who are not Canadian citizens or landed immigrants (permanent residents).

   This also includes permit holders and asylum claimants staying in Canada who have been granted permanent resident status. In this case, these persons will be added to the immigration component.

   Asylum claimants who have had their status revoked will be counted as an outflow.

Non-permanent resident type

1. Refers to the temporary residence status for which a non-permanent resident has been authorized to enter Canada. This category is defined according to the number and type of permit(s) and/or refugee claim a NPR holds on given date. The non-permanent resident types are mutually exclusive and are derived in the following order of classification: asylum claimants then permit holders. Consequently, there are no asylum claimants among the permit holder types.
2. Asylum claimants
1. Non-permanent residents who have claimed refugee status while in Canada and are awaiting a decision on their claim. This category includes:
2. Asylum claimants with work permit only
1. Asylum claimants who only have a work permit. A work permit is a document issued by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada that authorizes a person to work on a temporary basis in Canada.
3. Asylum claimants with study permit only
1. Asylum claimants who only have a study permit. A study permit is a document issued by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada that authorizes a person to study at a designated learning institution in Canada.
4. Asylum claimants with work and study permits
1. Asylum claimants who have both a work and study permit at the same time.
5. Asylum claimants without work or study permits
1. Asylum claimants with a valid claim but neither a work nor study permit.
3. Permit holders and their family members
1. Non-permanent residents who are not asylum claimants, but who hold a permit (for work, study or temporary residence). This classification also includes their family members who are not Canadian citizens, landed immigrants (permanent residents) or non-permanent residents themselves. This category includes:
2. Work permit holders only
1. Non-permanent residents who only have a work permit. A work permit is a document issued by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada that authorizes a person to work on a temporary basis in Canada. This subtype does not include family members.
3. Study permit holders only
1. Non-permanent residents who only have a study permit. A study permit is a document issued by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada that authorizes a person to study at a designated learning institution in Canada. This subtype does not include family members.
4. Work and study permit holders
1. Non-permanent residents who have both a work and study permit at the same time. This subtype does not include family members.
5. Other
1. "Other" mainly refers to family members living with permit holders, unless these family members are already Canadian citizens, landed immigrants, or NPRs themselves. This type of NPR also refers to temporary resident permits, formerly known as "Minister’s Permits".

Net temporary emigration

1. For demographic estimates from 1991 to June 2016, net temporary emigration represents the variation in the number of temporary emigrants between two dates. Temporary emigration includes Canadian citizens and immigrants living temporarily abroad who have not maintained a usual place of residence in Canada. From July 2016, net temporary emigration is distributed among emigrants and returning emigrants.

Population

1. Estimated population and population according to the census are both defined as being the number of Canadians whose usual place of residence is within that area, regardless of where they happened to be on Census Day. Also included are any Canadians staying in a dwelling in that area on Census Day and having no usual place of residence elsewhere in Canada, as well as those considered non-permanent residents.

Population estimate

1. Postcensal: Population estimate produced by using data from the most recent available census adjusted for census net undercoverage (including adjustment for incompletely enumerated reserves and settlements) and estimate of the components of demographic growth since that last census. This estimate can be preliminary, updated or final.
2. Intercensal: Population estimate derived by using postcensal estimates and data adjusted for census net undercoverage (including adjustment for incompletely enumerated reserves and settlements) of censuses preceding and following the year in question.

Population growth or total growth

1. Variation of population size between two dates. It can also be obtained by summing the natural increase, total net migration and if applicable, add residual deviation. It can be positive or negative.

Precocity error

1. Difference between preliminary and final estimate in terms of its relative proportion of the total population for the relevant geographical area. It can be calculated for either population estimates or components of population growth.

Rate

1. Refers to the ratio of the number of events estimated in a year (t, t+1) to the average populations at the beginning and the end of the period. In this regard, births, deaths, immigration rates, etc are calculated. Generally, the rates are expressed in per 1,000.
   Census net undercoverage of population rate: Difference between the census undercoverage rate and the census overcoverage rate.
   Demographic growth rate or population growth rate: Ratio of population growth between the year t and t+1, to the average population of both these years. The rate is generally expressed in per 1,000.
   Overcoverage of population rate: The ratio of the number of persons who should not have been counted in the census or who were counted more than once to the total number of persons that should have been enumerated in the census. Generally, the rate is expressed in percentage.
   Undercoverage of population rate: The ratio of the estimated number of persons not enumerated in the census (who were intended to have been enumerated) to the total number of persons that should have been enumerated in the census. Generally, the rate is expressed in percentage.

Residual deviation

1. Difference between demographic population growth calculated using intercensal estimates of population between two dates and that obtained by the sum of the components for the same period. This deviation results from the distribution of the error of closure (based on the number of days) over the months related to the five-year period.

Returning emigrant

1. Canadian citizen or immigrant who has previously emigrated from Canada and subsequently returned to the country. Returning emigration may be either long-term or short-term.

Sex at birth

1. Sex at birth refers to sex assigned at birth. Sex at birth is typically assigned based on a person's reproductive system and other physical characteristics.
   Sex at birth may also be understood as the sex recorded at a person's birth (for example, what was recorded on their birth certificate).

Short-term emigrant

1. Citizen or landed immigrant who has left the country to take up short-term residence in another country.

Short-term returning emigrant

1. Canadian citizen or landed immigrant who has already emigrated from Canada on a short-term basis and subsequently returned to live in Canada.

Sprague coefficients

1. Series of factors which, when multiplied to a population distributed by multiples age groups, give a distribution of the same population by single years of age.

Total net migration

1. Sum of net international and net interprovincial migration.

Vital statistics

1. Includes all the demographic events (births, deaths, marriages and divorces) for which there are a legal requirement to inform the Provincial or Territorial Registrar's Office.

Women+

1. The gender category "Women＋" includes women (and/or girls), as well as some non-binary persons.

Year

1. Unless otherwise specified, the term “year” refers to the period beginning July 1 of a given year and ending June 30 of the following year.

Appendix B: Sources and remarks

Base population

May 11, 2021 Census of Population adjusted for census net undercoverage and incompletely enumerated reserves and settlements.

2021 Census: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada, 2021, Table: 98-10-0001-01.

Census net undercoverage: See The Daily, September 27, 2023.

Incompletely enumerated reserves and settlements: See The Daily, September 27, 2023.

Births and deaths

Statistics Canada, the Centre for Population Health Data.

Statistics Canada, the Centre for Demography, Catalogue no. 91-215-X, annual.

Immigration

Estimates are based on the immigrant file provided by Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) received on August 15, 2023.

For methodological reasons, the total estimates of immigrants by province and territory released by the Demographic Estimates Program may differ from those released by IRCC. In the event of a discrepancy between the two sources, the official numbers of immigrants will continue to be those released by IRCC.

Note: No adjustments related to COVID-19 were made to the usual estimation method as IRCC data were received as usual and were of normal quality.

Emigration

For long-term emigrants, the estimates are produced by the Centre for Demography using:

• data from Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) Canada child benefit files (CCB) program. The last year of data used is 2020/2021
• tax data calculated using T1FF file provided by Statistics Canada Centre for Income and Socioeconomic Well-being Statistics. The last year of data used was 2020/2021
• data provided by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security, Office of Immigration Statistics. The last year of data used was 2020/2021
• data on the number of adult and children emigrants from T1FF file used for the provincial distribution of adults. The last year of data used was 2020/2021.

For estimates after 2020/2021, we:

• calculated the 2018/2019 emigration rate for Canada
• applied this rate to Canada’s population on July 1 at the beginning of the period to be estimated
• distributed the number of emigrants for Canada by the province and territory according to the provincial distribution of 2018/2019
• distributed these data by month according to the provincial or territorial emigration seasonality of 2018/2019.

For short-term emigrants, for the intercensal period, data are produced by the Centre for Demography using:

• data from 2021 Census Undercoverage Study (CUS)

For postcensal estimates, we:

• calculated the 2020/2021 short-term emigration rate for Canada
• applied this rate to the population of Canada on July 1 of the start of the period to be estimated
• distributed the estimated short-term emigrants by province and territory by month, according to the distribution of long-term emigrants.

Finally, the number of emigrants is calculated by adding long-term and short-term emigrants.

Note: No adjustments related to COVID-19 were made to the usual estimation method. However, for long-term emigrants, the 2018/2019 rate instead of the 2020/2021 rate was used to avoid reflecting the effects of the pandemic in estimates after 2020/2021.

Returning emigration

For long-term returning emigrants, the estimates are produced by the Centre for Demography using:

• data from Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) Canada child benefit files (CCB) program. The last year of data used was 2020/2021
• 2021 Census – 1 year mobility.

For estimates after 2020/2021, we:

• calculated the 2018/2019 returning emigration rate for Canada
• applied this rate to Canada’s population on July 1 at the beginning of the period to be estimated
• distributed the number of returning emigrants for Canada by the province and territory according to the provincial distribution of 2018/2019
• distributed these data by month according to the provincial or territorial returning emigration seasonality of 2018/2019.

For short-term returning emigrants, for the intercensal period, data are produced by the Centre for Demography using:

• 2021 Census question on place of residence 5 years ago
• estimates of returning long-term emigrants for the intercensal period 2016 to 2021
• the monthly distribution by province and territory of short-term emigrants.

For postcensal estimates, we:

• calculated the 2020/2021 short-term returning emigration rate for Canada
• applied this rate to Canada’s population on July 1 at the beginning of the period to be estimated
• distributed the number of short-term returning emigrants by month and by province and territory according to the short-term emigrant distribution

Finally, the number of returning emigrants is calculated by adding long-term and short-term returning emigrants.

Note: No adjustments related to COVID-19 were made to the usual estimation method. However, for returning long-term emigrants, the 2018/2019 rate instead of the 2020/2021 rate was used to avoid reflecting the effects of the pandemic in estimates after 2020/2021.

Net temporary emigration

Before July 2016, short-term emigrants and short-term returning emigrants were included in the “net temporary emigration” component. After this date, they are included in the emigrant and returning emigrant components, using a slightly different methodology. Due to this change, the net temporary emigration component is no longer calculated from July 2016 onwards.

Non-permanent residents

Estimates are produced by the Centre for Demography from the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) permit holder and asylum claimant files received on August 15, 2023. Further methodological adjustments derived from a linkage between censuses and IRCC data are then applied.

Since March 17, 2022, persons with the Canada-Ukraine Authorization for Emergency Travel (CUAET) who are on Canadian soil are included.

Note: No adjustments related to COVID-19 were made to the usual estimation method as IRCC data were received as usual and were of normal quality.

Interprovincial migration

The estimates are produced by the Centre for Demography using:

• adjusted migration data for children from Canada child benefit (CCB) program from Canada Revenue Agency (CRA)
• factors (_jG) corresponding to the ratio of the migration rate of all children to the migration rate of who are registered to the CCB program children calculated using 2021/2022 tax file data
• factors (_jkF) used to calculate adult migration and corresponding to the ratio of the adult to child migration rates, calculated on a three-year basis using tax file data for 2019/2020, 2020/2021 and 2021/2022.

Notes: Due to a change in methodology, we remind you that the in- and out- interprovincial migrants cannot be summed in order to obtain a different period (for example, the sum of the quarterly estimates is not equal to the annual estimates). This method has been applied starting with July 2011.

No adjustments related to COVID-19 were made to the usual estimating method.