Annual Demographic Estimates: Subprovincial Areas, July 1, 2020
Appendix C: Sources and remarks
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Base population
May 10, 2016 Census of Population adjusted to July 1 and corrected for census net undercoverage (including incompletely enumerated Indian reserves and population reviews).
2016 Census: Statistics Canada, Census of Canada, 2016, Catalogue no. 98-501-X.
Census net undercoverage: See The Daily, September 27, 2018.
Incompletely enumerated Indian reserves: See The Daily, September 27, 2018.
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COVID-19 adjustments
For the 2019/2020 period, it was necessary to apply adjustments to estimated death and emigration components at the provincial/territorial level due to the impact of COVID-19. Subprovincial estimates were calibrated to adjusted provincial/territorial estimates. For more information, please see the following document: Technical Supplement: Production of Demographic Estimates for the Second Quarter of 2020 in the Context of COVID-19.
For the deaths component, data from the provincial public health authorities was used to adjust subprovincial distributions of the excess mortality for provinces with a positive excess mortality as calculated by the Centre for Population Health Data (Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Alberta), or with a significant number of reported COVID-19 deaths (Ontario and British Columbia). Data provided by the Institut de la statistique du Québec were not adjusted as they included COVID-19 deaths.
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Births and deaths
Statistics Canada, Centre for Population Health Data. For Quebec, preliminary and updated births and deaths were provided by the Institut de la statistique du Québec.
Immigration
The estimates are produced by the Centre for Demography using the Global Case Management System (GCMS) files from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) received by September 2020.
Non-permanent residents
The estimates are produced by the Centre for Demography using the GCMS files from IRCC. These files, received by September 2020, document the number of permit holders and asylum claimants.
Emigration and returning emigrants
For the subprovincial areas, the components (emigration and returning emigrants) are extracted from tax files by broad age groups and sex. They are calculated using the T1 Family File (T1FF) provided by the Centre for Income and Socioeconomic Well-being Statistics of Statistics Canada. The data is then broken down by single year of age and sex based on the provincial and territorial distribution. To ensure their consistency, the estimates are subsequently controlled to the provincial and territorial totals.
Net temporary emigrants
Statistics Canada, Centre for Demography – based on data from the Reverses Record Check (RRC) for the 2016 Census, and the 2016 Census. Data were broken down by region, single year of age and sex according to the emigrants’ distribution.
Net interprovincial migration and net intraprovincial migration
For the subprovincial areas, the components (in- and out-migrants for interprovincial and intraprovincial migration) are extracted from tax files by broad age groups and sex. They are calculated using the T1FF provided by the Centre for Income and Socioeconomic Well-being Statistics of Statistics Canada as well as data from Canada Revenue Agency (CRA) Canada child benefit files (CCB) program. The data is then broken down by single year of age and sex based on the mobility information from the 2016 Census. To ensure their consistency, the components for interprovincial migration are subsequently controlled to the provincial and territorial totals.
For Quebec, intraprovincial migration data were provided by the Institut de la statistique du Québec.
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