Annual Demographic Estimates: Subprovincial Areas, July 1, 2017
Section 1: Census metropolitan areas

View the most recent version.

• On July 1, 2017, 25,893,686 people were living in 1 of the 34^{Note 1} census metropolitan areas (CMA) in Canada.
• The proportion of the population living in a CMA continued to increase to 70.5%, or 7 in 10 Canadians.
• More than one in three Canadians (35.6%) were living in one of Canada’s three largest CMAs—Toronto, Montréal or Vancouver.
• Between July 1, 2016 and June 30, 2017 (the 2016/2017 period), population growth was three times higher in CMAs (+15.2 per thousand) than in non-CMAs (+4.8 per thousand).
• The overall growth of CMAs in the most recent annual period (+15.2 per thousand) was comparable to 2015/2016 (+15.2 per thousand). This stability was similar to that observed for the entire country.^{Note 2}
• The interprovincial migration observed in the CMAs reflect existing provincial findings for 2016/2017, which showed gains in British Columbia, Ontario and Nova Scotia (to a lesser extent) and losses in the other provinces, including Alberta.

Start of text box

End of text box

CMA growth unequal from east to west

Atlantic provinces

• Halifax (+15.8 per thousand) was the only CMA within the Atlantic provinces whose population growth was higher than the growth of all CMAs combined (+15.2 per thousand).
• The Saint John CMA posted positive population growth (+3.8 per thousand) for a second consecutive year after four negative years.
• A population decrease was observed in non-CMAs in Newfoundland and Labrador (-3,082), Nova Scotia (-1,500), and New Brunswick (-360). These decreases were due to a combination of factors, including interprovincial migration (except Nova Scotia), negative intraprovincial migration and more deaths than births.

Quebec

• The population growth of each of the six Quebec CMAs was lower than for all CMAs combined in 2016/2017.
• The population of the Saguenay CMA decreased (-1.8 per thousand) for a fourth consecutive year.
• As for all non-CMAs in Quebec, the growth rate of 4.3 per thousand was lower than the provincial rate (+8.6 per thousand).

Ontario

• The population growth in nearly half of the CMAs (Ottawa–Gatineau [Ontario], Oshawa, Toronto, Kitchener–Cambridge–Waterloo, Guelph, London, and Barrie) was higher than the growth of all Canadian CMAs combined.
• The population of the Thunder Bay CMA decreased (-1.0 per thousand) for a fourth consecutive year, while the population of the Greater Sudbury CMA increased slightly (+0.8 per thousand) after three years of decline.
• In Ontario’s non-CMAs, growth was estimated at 6.3 per thousand, but it was less pronounced than in the entire province (+15.4 per thousand).

Prairies

• Population growth in the five CMAs in the Prairies was above the growth observed for all CMAs in the country.
• Saskatchewan’s two CMAs—Saskatoon (+28.3 per thousand) and Regina (+24.1 per thousand)—had the highest population growth in the country in 2016/2017.
• Between 2015/2016 and 2016/2017, the Calgary CMA fell from fourth (+21.2 per thousand) to tenth (+17.6 per thousand) place in growth, while the Edmonton CMA remained in eighth place (+20.7 per thousand and +18.0 per thousand respectively) among all CMAs.
• While population growth in Alberta CMAs has been positive, it has been smaller since 2013/2014, coinciding with the commodities downturn that began in 2014, which was reflected in the rising unemployment rate in the province from the beginning of 2015, reaching a peak at the end of 2016.^{Note 3}
• In Alberta’s non-CMAs, a slight population decrease was observed, mainly owing to interprovincial and intraprovincial losses.

British Columbia

• No CMA posted population growth higher than the growth of all CMAs combined.
• The Kelowna CMA had the fastest growth with 13.5 per thousand.

Population growth of CMAs stimulated by international migration

• International migration was the main factor in the population growth of 22 in 34 CMAs in 2016/2017.
• The number of non-permanent residents^{Note 4} grew significantly, particularly in the CMAs in Ontario, along with the three biggest CMAs in Canada, showing values rarely or never seen in the 2001-2017 observation period.

Atlantic provinces

• International migration (including immigrants and non-permanent residents) was the main source of growth in the CMAs in the Atlantic provinces, except in the St. John’s CMA in Newfoundland and Labrador. It hovered around last year’s record levels.
• The Halifax CMA had the highest international migration growth rate in 2016/2017 among the Atlantic CMAs, with 10.6 per thousand. It also ranked eighth highest among Canadian CMAs in terms of international migration rates.

Quebec

• The Montréal CMA—the second largest CMA in the country—also showed the second largest net number of international migrants (+52,158) among all Canadian CMAs in 2016/2017, a level not seen since 2001/2002.
• Montréal received a significant number of non-permanent residents, a level never seen since 2001/2002.
• Two Quebec’s CMAs were among the top 10 Canadian CMAs with the highest international migration rates: Montréal, ranking fifth (+12.7 per thousand), and Sherbrooke ranking tenth (+9.0 per thousand).
• Trois-Rivières was the only Quebec CMA whose population growth was largely due to intraprovincial migration.

Ontario

• The Toronto CMA continued to be the number one destination for international migrants (+113,074) in 2016/2017. Growth of this magnitude has not been observed since 2001/2002.
• The Ontario part of Ottawa–Gatineau posted an international migration rate of 9.3 per thousand, the ninth highest among all Canadian CMAs in 2016/2017.
• The number of non-permanent residents who settled in Ontario’s CMAs reached levels rarely or never seen during the 2001-to-2017 observation period.
• Apart from Oshawa, Barrie and Thunder Bay, most of the CMAs in Ontario posted interprovincial migration gains.
• The Toronto CMA had positive net interprovincial migration (+13,450) for a second consecutive year after four years of losses.
• Intraprovincial migration accounted for most of the population growth in 10 Canadian CMAs with populations of under 500,000, seven of which are in Ontario (Kingston, Peterborough, Oshawa, St. Catharines–Niagara, Brantford, Guelph and Barrie). Many of these smaller CMAs are near the Toronto CMA, and their migration gains were mainly at the expense of Toronto.

Prairies

• The CMAs of Regina (+20.7 per thousand), Winnipeg (+20.4 per thousand) and Saskatoon (+18.6 per thousand) were the top three Canadian CMAs with the highest international migration rates.
• In Alberta, the CMAs of Calgary (-4,565) and Edmonton (-2,556) posted interprovincial migration losses for a second consecutive year. With the exception of 2009/2010, these CMAs had always posted gains since the beginning of the 2001/2002 observation period.

British Columbia

• The Vancouver CMA posted an international migration rate of 12.3 per thousand, the sixth highest rate among all Canadian CMAs in 2016/2017.
• Net interprovincial migration was the main factor in the population growth of only two Canadian CMAs: Kelowna (+2,019) and Victoria (+2,687), both in British Columbia.

Of Canada’s three largest CMAs, Toronto had the strongest population growth

• On July 1, 2017, Canada’s three largest CMAs had a total combined population of 13.1 million, or more than one in three Canadians (35.6%).
• In each of Canada’s three major CMAs, international migration was the main driver of population growth.
• However, the proportion of immigrants who settled in one of the three largest Canadian CMAs continued to decline. In 2016/2017, 54.0% of immigrants who settled in Canada (147,293) chose to live in the Toronto, Montréal or Vancouver CMAs, compared with 68.5% 10 years earlier.
• The decrease in the proportion of immigrants who settle in the three most populous Canadian CMAs primarily benefitted the five Prairie CMAs (Winnipeg, Saskatoon, Regina, Calgary and Edmonton), which received 22.6% of immigrants in 2016/2017, more than twice the number in 2006/2007 (11.2%).
• In 2016/2017, the three largest CMAs in the country received most of the non-permanent residents.

Montréal CMA

• In 2016/2017, the population in the Montréal CMA grew by 48,515 (+11.8 per thousand) to 4,138,254.
• The Montréal CMA incurred migration losses of 10,325 people to the rest of Quebec.

Toronto CMA

• Of Canada’s three largest CMAs, Toronto had the strongest population growth in 2016/2017.
• With an increase of 122,090 (+19.4 per thousand), the population of Canada’s largest CMA was 6,346,088. A growth rate that high had not been recorded in the Toronto CMA since 2001/2002 (+24.5 per thousand).
• This increase stemmed mainly from international migration (+18.0 per thousand), particularly because of the positive balance of non-permanent residents (+47,131) and new immigrants (+74,742) settling in Toronto in 2016/2017.The Toronto CMA lost residents to outlying CMAs or neighbouring non-CMAs (-36,755).
• Specifically, the Toronto CMA saw migration losses that benefitted the neighbouring CMAs of Oshawa, Hamilton and Barrie. Migration losses were largest among persons aged 25 to 64 years and children under 18 years of age.

Vancouver CMA

• The population of the Vancouver CMA was 2,571,262 on July 1, 2017, up 28,984 (+11.3 per thousand) from the previous year.
• The Vancouver CMA saw intraprovincial losses of 9,926 residents, mainly to the benefit of the neighbouring CMA of Abbotsford–Mission and the province’s non-CMAs.
• These migration losses were the most pronounced among persons aged 25 to 64 years and children under 18 years of age.

Start of text box

End of text box

The population of CMAs younger than in the rest of Canada

CMAs vs. non-CMAs

• On July 1, 2017, the median age of the population residing in a CMA was 39.4 years. By comparison, the median age of the non-CMA population was higher (44.3 years).
• The age structure of CMA and non-CMA populations differs mainly in terms of the demographic weight of the age groups starting at 15 years, as the age pyramid in Figure 1.1 shows:
  • On one hand, the 65-and-older group accounted for 20.1% of the non-CMA population, compared with 15.5% of the population in CMAs.
  • On the other hand, Figure 1.1 shows that persons aged 20 to 49 years represented a larger share of the population of CMAs than of non-CMAs.
  • This is mainly the result of young adults migrating from non-CMAs to CMAs, as well as a greater influx of immigrants into CMAs—nearly two-thirds of the immigrants who settled in a CMA were aged 20 to 49 years.
• Although the number of persons aged 65 years and older exceeded the number of children aged 0 to 14 years in Canada in 2014/2015, 14 CMAs (those in the Prairies and some CMAs in Ontario) still had more children than seniors on July 1, 2017, compared with 27 CMAs a decade earlier.

The CMAs with the youngest populations are in western Canada

CMAs with the youngest populations

• On July 1, 2017, the five Prairie CMAs had the lowest median ages in Canada.
• Saskatoon had the lowest median age, at 34.9 years. By comparison, this is almost six years less than the median age for Canada (40.6 years).
• In addition to Saskatoon, the Regina CMA also stood out for having a young population. These CMAs had the greatest proportions of persons aged 0 to 14 years (18.0% and 18.1% respectively).
• The Calgary CMA was also one of the youngest CMAs in Canada. In addition to posting the third largest proportion of persons aged 0 to 14 years (17.9%), it was the CMA with the smallest proportion of persons aged 65 years and older (11.1%).

CMAs with the oldest populations

• With respect to median age, the oldest population was in the Trois-Rivières CMA (46.3 years), followed by the Saguenay CMA (46.2 years) and the St. Catharines–Niagara CMA (45.9 years).
• The Trois-Rivières CMA (22.9%) also had the largest share of persons aged 65 years and older among all the CMAs in Canada. The St. Catharines–Niagara CMA and Peterborough CMA had the second highest proportion of persons aged 65 years and older, at 21.8% each.

CMA with the youngest population and CMA with the oldest population

• Figure 1.2 compares the age pyramid for the Regina CMA, where the share of youth aged 0 to 14 years was the largest, with the pyramid for Trois-Rivières, which had the highest proportion of persons aged 65 years and older:
  • The top of the pyramid, which is wider for Trois-Rivières than for Regina, indicates that the age structure is older in the Quebec CMA.
  • The larger share of persons aged 65 years and older in Trois-Rivières can be attributed to the intraprovincial migration (key growth factor) in recent years of persons mainly aged 40 years and older, coupled with one of the lowest birth rates in the country.
  • The wider base of the Regina CMA pyramid indicates that children account for a larger share of the population in this CMA.
  • The relatively large size of this age group is in part due to a high birth rate—still among the five highest since 2006/2007.

Fastest-aging CMAs in Quebec and Ontario

• Even though the populations of CMAs are younger than in the rest of Canada, these populations are also aging, but not as quickly as in non-CMAs.
• The median age of the population of CMAs increased 1.2 years between July 1, 2007, and July 1, 2017, compared with 2.7 years for non-CMA regions. As well, the proportion of persons aged 65 years and older in CMAs rose from 12.6% to 15.5% during the same period, an increase of 2.9 percentage points.
• In non-CMAs, the proportion of persons aged 65 years and older was 20.1% on July 1, 2017, an increase of 4.8 percentage points, which is even greater than the one observed in the CMAs.
• An increase in the median age combined with an increase in the proportion of persons aged 65 and older was observed in almost all of Canada’s CMAs.

CMAs with the fastest-aging populations

• The biggest increases in the proportion of persons aged 65 years and older between 2007 and 2017 were recorded in Quebec CMAs, specifically Saguenay (+6.5 percentage points), Trois-Rivières (+5.9 percentage points), and Sherbrooke and Québec (+5.3 percentage points each).
• In addition, the largest increases in median age over the past decade were in the Ontario CMAs of St. Catharines–Niagara (+3.8 years), Windsor (+3.5 years) and Barrie (+3.1 years).

CMAs with the slowest-aging populations

• Lastly, the five Prairie CMAs recorded slower population aging than in the rest of Canada.
• In each of these CMAs, the increase in the proportion of the population aged 65 years and older between 2007 and 2017 did not exceed 2.1 percentage points (compared with +3.5 percentage points for Canada), and the change in median age over the same period was 1.3 years at most (compared with +1.5 years for Canada).