Estimation and inference of domain means subject to qualitative constraints
Section 2. Constrained estimation and inference for domain means
2.1 Notation and preliminaries
Let
be the set of elements in a population of size
Consider a sample
of size
that is drawn from
using a probability sampling design
Denote
and
as the first and second order inclusion
probabilities, respectively. Assume that
for
To simplify notation, we will adopt the usual convention
of suppressing the subscript
unless it is needed for clarity. Denote
as a domain partition of
where
is the number of domains and each
is of size
Also, let
be the subset of size
of
that belongs to
For
any study variable
denotes the vector of population domain means,
where
We will focus
on the Hájek estimator of
given by
with
and let
to be
the vector of estimators. The results will also hold for the Horvitz-Thompson
estimator with minor modifications, but it will not be explicitly addressed in
what follows.
2.2 Proposed estimator
Assume
there is information available regarding relationships between the population
domain means that can be expressed with
constraints through a
irreducible constraint matrix
A matrix
is irreducible if none of its rows is a
positive linear combination of other rows, and if the origin is also not a
positive linear combination of its rows (Meyer, 1999). In practical terms, this
means that there are no redundant constraints in
To take advantage of
to obtain an estimator that respects these
shape constraints, we propose the constrained estimator
to be the unique vector that solves the following
constrained weighted least squares problem,
where
is the
diagonal matrix with elements
and
The
constrained problem in equation (2.3) can be alternatively written as finding
the unique vector
that
solves
where
and
The
transformed constrained matrix
is also
irreducible if
is, and
it depends on the sample although
does
not. The solution
is the projection of
onto the
set of vectors
that
satisfy the condition
This set
is a polyhedral convex cone, called the constraint cone
defined
by
specifically,
We use the
notation
where
stands
for the projection of
onto the
set
i.e.,
the closest vector in
to
Projections
onto such cones are well understood; see Rockafellar (1970) or Meyer (1999) for
details. In terms of this work, the main results from cone projection theory
are summarized here. The cone can be characterized by a set of edges generating the cone; that is, a vector is in the cone if and only if it is a
linear combination of the edges with non-negative coefficients. (Picture a
pyramid with vertex at the origin, extending out indefinitely.) Subsets of the
edges define the faces of the cone, and the projection of
onto the cone lands on one of the faces. Once
the edges defining this face are determined, the projection can be
characterized as an ordinary least-squares projection onto the linear space
spanned by this subset of edges. This property is crucial for both the
algorithm for projection and for inference, because the projection onto the
cone can be characterized as a linear projection.
For
this work, we will project
onto the polar cone
(Rockafellar, 1970, page 121), defined as
where
That is,
the polar cone is the set of vectors that form obtuse angles with all vectors
in
The
polar cone is analogous to the orthogonal space in linear least-squares
projections, in that the projection of a vector onto the polar cone is the
residual of its projection onto the constraint cone, and vice-versa. Meyer
(1999) showed that the negative rows of an irreducible matrix are the edges (generators) of the polar cone, leading to the following characterization of
the polar cone in (2.6):
where
are the
rows of
Robertson, Wright
and Dykstra (1988, page 17)
established necessary and sufficient conditions for a vector
to be
the projection of
onto
That is,
solves the
constrained problem in (2.4) if and only if
Moreover, the
above conditions can be adapted to the polar cone as follows: the vector
minimizes
over
if and
only if
The
conditions in (2.8) can be used to show that the projection of
onto the polar cone
coincides with the projection onto the linear
space generated by the edges
such that
This set of edges could be empty, meaning that
the projection onto
is equal to the projection onto the zero
vector. In that case, the unconstrained minimum satisfies all the constraints.
Alternatively, this set of edges might not be unique. To formalize these ideas,
denote
for any
Define the set
as,
where
by
convention. (Technically, this set is the closure of a face of the cone.) That
is,
is a
closed polyhedral sub-cone of
that
starts at the origin and is defined by the edges in
Further,
let
be the
linear space generated by the vectors in
It is
shown in Meyer (1999) that projecting onto
is
equivalent to projecting onto
for an
appropriate set
If the
rows of the constraint matrix
are
linearly independent, then the minimal set
is
unique; otherwise there may be more than one
that
defines the linear space. In the latter case, however, the projection is still
unique (see Theorem 1 of the next section).
Wu et al. (2016)
considered the solution to (2.3), in the special case of a monotone relationship
between domains defined along a single categorical variable. In that case, the
solution is equivalent to that of the Pooled Adjacent Violator Algorithm
(PAVA), which has an explicit expression in terms of a pooling of neighboring
domains. The theoretical results in Wu et al. (2016) were obtained using
that explicit expression, and hence do not apply to the more general setting
considered here. Nevertheless, as was the case with the simple 6-domain example
in Section 1 and in many situations of practical interest, the specific
matrix
will often correspond to a multivariate partial
ordering of the domain means. Under partial ordering, the solution to the
constrained minimization in (2.3) is again equivalent to a pooling of neighboring
domains in such a way that the partial order constraints are respected. See for
instance Robertson et al. (1988, page 23) for an explicit expression
of this pooled domain expression under partial ordering, including the
definition of the pooling. However, unlike PAVA in the univariate case, this
does not lead to a practical general computational algorithm. In the current
paper, we will allow for arbitrary irreducible constraint matrix
which will include partial ordering and
univariate monotonicity as special cases.
One possible general approach
to computing
is based on the edges of the constraint cone
However, the number of edges can be
considerably larger than the number of constraints for large values of
especially for the case when there are more
constraints than domains (see Meyer, 1999). Moreover, given the lack of a
general closed form solution for the edges of
(when
the edges need to be computed numerically in
that case. This task is computationally demanding, which makes this approach an
inefficient way to compute
A more efficient algorithm based on computing
the projection onto the polar cone has been developed: the Cone Projection
Algorithm (CPA) (Meyer, 2013). This alternative approach takes advantage of the
easy-to-find edges
of the polar cone, the conditions in (2.8),
and the fact that
The latter fact is a key component on the
proofs of the main theoretical results shown in this paper. CPA has been
implemented in the software R into the coneproj package. See Liao and Meyer
(2014) for further details.
For the situations in which
the constraints correspond to complete or partial ordering, the CPA solution
once again corresponds to domain pooling. After this, the domain mean estimates
can be explicitly computed as sample-based domain means for the CPA-determined
pooled domains. This greatly facilitates incorporating this methodology into
survey estimation practice, because the pooled domain definitions can be
readily communicated as part of the instructions accompanying a survey dataset
release, and the estimates can be calculated without requiring access to
specialized software.
2.3 Variance estimation of
Estimating
appropriately the variance of
is a complicated task, derived from the fact
that the projection of
onto
(or onto
might not always land on the same linear space
for different samples
To better understand that, we define
as the set of all subsets
such that
as defined in (2.9). As noted earlier, there
could be different sets
and
such that the projection onto the polar cone
is equal to projecting onto either
or
However, independently of which set is chosen,
the projection
is unique.
To
illustrate the above point, consider the following restrictions when there are
only 3 domains: the first domain mean is expected to be at the most equal to
the second domain mean, and the third domain mean is expected to be at least
equal to the average of the first two domain means. Hence, the constraint matrix
can be expressed as
Suppose it is
observed that
The
transformed vector
has elements
of the form
In this
setting, it is straightforward to see that
In the
process of computing it using the general algorithm, we project
onto
each of the
linear
spaces generated by the polar cone edges
Hence, it can
be seen that the conditions
are
satisfied only for
and
which
implies that
Moreover, note that
and
do not
span the same linear spaces, which is what complicates the variance estimation
of
In the
model-based case with continuous variables, the set of sample vectors where
these scenarios occur has measure zero. However, they cannot be excluded in the
design-based setting.
We
propose a variance estimator for
that relies on the sets in
and is based on linearization methods.
Consider any fixed set
and let
be the projection matrix corresponding to the
linear space
where
is the matrix of zeros by convention. By the
selection of
then
can be expressed as
which implies that
can be written as
where we add the subscript
in
to be aware that the expression depends on the
chosen
Now,
observe that
is a smooth non-linear function of the
and the
where
is the Horvitz-Thompson estimator of
Therefore, treating
as fixed, we obtain the asymptotic variance of
via Taylor linearization (Särndal et al.,
1992, page 175) as
where
and
with
being
the indicator variable for the event
and
In addition,
a consistent estimator of the asymptotic variance in (2.10) is given by
where
with
obtained
from
by
substituting the appropriate Horvitz-Thompson estimators for each population
total. We propose the estimator in (2.11), computed at the
obtained
in the sample, as a variance estimator of
To
provide a clear example of the proposed variance estimator for
consider the setting presented at the
beginning of this subsection. Since
it might be of interest to compute the
estimated variance of
for
and certain
The matrix
is the projection matrix corresponding to the
linear space generated by
given by
Note that
is a
function of
because
is.
Using the above equation,
can be
simplified to the following expression,
Therefore,
given a domain
the
and
can be
derived by taking the partial derivatives of
with
respect to the
and
and
evaluating such derivatives at the
and
For
that is,
The
and
are
computed by substituting Horvitz-Thompson estimators in the above equations,
which are then used to evaluate
for each
in the
sample
Finally,
the proposed variance estimator in (2.11) can be computed.