A bivariate hierarchical Bayesian model for estimating cropland cash rental rates at the county level
Section 5. Conclusions and future work
We
use a bivariate HB model to obtain predictors of county-level cash rental rates
for non-irrigated cropland in Iowa, Kansas, and Texas. The model incorporates
auxiliary information related to land quality, commodity values, and farm
characteristics. Significant correlations exist between the 2009 and 2010 model
random effects at both the unit and county levels. As a consequence, using the
information in the 2009 cash rent estimates reduces the posterior MSE relative
to a univariate model. The analysis of the bivariate HB model provides support
that a more refined approach than that of Berg et al. (2014) is possible.
To incorporate unit-level covariates with unknown population means, we add a
level to the hierarchical model that justifies adding a term to the posterior
mean squared error to account for uncertainty in the unknown population means
of the unit-level covariates. Unlike Berg et al. (2014), the proposed
bivariate HB model allows variability to change over time and accounts for
effects of benchmarking on the MSE.
The
analysis of the residuals and the posterior predictive
values suggests that
accounting for outliers may be an important way to substantially improve the
model fit. One option is to consider a heavy-tailed distribution, such as a
distribution or a mixture of
normal distributions, that may represent the observed responses more
appropriately than the assumed normal distribution. An extension of
Gershunskaya (2010) to bivariate framework and Bayesian estimation is one
possible way to approach the issue of outliers.
Acknowledgements
The
National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the United States Department
of Agriculture (USDA) supported this work. The authors are grateful to Wendy
Barboza, Dan Beckler, Angie Considine, Mark Harris, Sharyn Lavender, Joe
Parsons, Scot Rumberg, Scott Shimmin, Curt Stock, and Linda Young from the
National Agriculture Statistics Service. Further, the authors thank Bob Dobos
from the National Resource Conservation Service and Rich Iovanna from the Farm
Service Agency for their assistance in acquiring the National Commodity Crop
Productivity Index. Without the generous assistance from these individuals,
this research would have been impossible. The views expressed in this paper are
those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of NASS or the
USDA.
Appendix A
To
specify the full conditional distributions for Gibbs sampling, we introduce
notation. Let
be the set of parameters except for the
parameter denoted by
Let
where
and
Let
Let
be the set of units (farm operators) in county
that are in set 1,
be the set of units in county
that are in set 2, and
be the set of units in county
that are in set 3, where set 1, set 2, and set
3 are defined in Section 3. Full conditionals are as follows.
-
where
- and
-
where
and
-
where
where
-
where
Appendix B
We
define an estimator of the diagonal elements of
corresponding to unit-level covariates,
for
The variance estimator is based on a working
assumption that a probability proportional to size with replacement (PPSWR)
sample is a reasonable approximation for the cash rent survey design. As discussed
in Cochran (1977), use of a PPSWR approximation is often reasonable if the
sampling fraction is less than 10%. Suppose the draw probability for element
in area
for the PPSWR design is
Because
for some counties, we define the estimator of
the diagonal elements of
corresponding to unit level covariates as a
convex combination of a direct estimator of the within-area variance and a
variance estimator that pools information across all counties in a state. For
area
with
the estimate of the within-area variance of
under the assumed PPSWR design (Särndal,
Swensson and Wretman, 1992) is given by
where
is the
element of
The pooled estimator of the variance is
defined by
where
and
The element of the diagonal covariance matrix
corresponding to the
unit level covariate is then given by
where
We
provide a heuristic justification for the combination in (B.2), which is
related to Haff (1980). Let
where
Assume
where
Then,
In
application to estimation of county-level cash rental rates,
plays the role of
and
plays the role of
Taking
gives the desired multiplier.
Appendix C
Data simulation from the posterior distributions
Consider
the posterior samples for
and
denoted by
and
respectively, for
Define
for
Draw replicates
and
for
following model (1-3) and properties of the
multivariate conditional normal distribution as follows:
Although
the number of posterior samples is
20,000, we
construct
1,901
replicates, where
is selected from the sequence 1,000 to
by skipping every 10 samples.
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