A bivariate hierarchical Bayesian model for estimating cropland cash rental rates at the county level
Section 5. Conclusions and future work

We use a bivariate HB model to obtain predictors of county-level cash rental rates for non-irrigated cropland in Iowa, Kansas, and Texas. The model incorporates auxiliary information related to land quality, commodity values, and farm characteristics. Significant correlations exist between the 2009 and 2010 model random effects at both the unit and county levels. As a consequence, using the information in the 2009 cash rent estimates reduces the posterior MSE relative to a univariate model. The analysis of the bivariate HB model provides support that a more refined approach than that of Berg et al. (2014) is possible. To incorporate unit-level covariates with unknown population means, we add a level to the hierarchical model that justifies adding a term to the posterior mean squared error to account for uncertainty in the unknown population means of the unit-level covariates. Unlike Berg et al. (2014), the proposed bivariate HB model allows variability to change over time and accounts for effects of benchmarking on the MSE.

The analysis of the residuals and the posterior predictive p MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaeiCaiaayI W7caaMi8UaeyOeI0caaa@3AA3@ values suggests that accounting for outliers may be an important way to substantially improve the model fit. One option is to consider a heavy-tailed distribution, such as a t MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamiDaiaayI W7caaMi8UaeyOeI0caaa@3AA9@ distribution or a mixture of normal distributions, that may represent the observed responses more appropriately than the assumed normal distribution. An extension of Gershunskaya (2010) to bivariate framework and Bayesian estimation is one possible way to approach the issue of outliers.

Acknowledgements

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) supported this work. The authors are grateful to Wendy Barboza, Dan Beckler, Angie Considine, Mark Harris, Sharyn Lavender, Joe Parsons, Scot Rumberg, Scott Shimmin, Curt Stock, and Linda Young from the National Agriculture Statistics Service. Further, the authors thank Bob Dobos from the National Resource Conservation Service and Rich Iovanna from the Farm Service Agency for their assistance in acquiring the National Commodity Crop Productivity Index. Without the generous assistance from these individuals, this research would have been impossible. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of NASS or the USDA.

Appendix A

To specify the full conditional distributions for Gibbs sampling, we introduce notation. Let Θ γ MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaeuiMde1aaS baaSqaaiabeo7aNbqabaaaaa@38EB@ be the set of parameters except for the parameter denoted by γ . MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaeq4SdCMaai Olaaaa@37FA@ Let X i j = ( z i j , 09 , z i j , 10 ) , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaCiwamaaBa aaleaacaWGPbGaamOAaaqabaGccaaI9aWaaeWaaeaacaWH6bWaaSba aSqaaiaadMgacaWGQbGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMc8UaaGimaiaaiMdaae qaaOGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMe8UaaCOEamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaamOA aiaaygW7caaISaGaaGPaVlaaigdacaaIWaaabeaaaOGaayjkaiaawM caamaaCaaaleqabaGccWaGyBOmGikaaiaaygW7caGGSaaaaa@54B7@ where z i j , 09 = ( x i j , 09 , 0 p 10 ) , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaCOEamaaBa aaleaacaWGPbGaamOAaiaaygW7caaISaGaaGPaVlaaicdacaaI5aaa beaakiaai2dadaqadaqaaiaahIhadaqhaaWcbaGaamyAaiaadQgaca aMb8UaaGilaiaaykW7caaIWaGaaGyoaaqaaKqzGfGamai2gkdiIcaa kiaaiYcacaaMe8UaaCimamaaDaaaleaacaWGWbWaaSbaaWqaaiaaig dacaaIWaaabeaaaSqaaKqzGfGamai2gkdiIcaaaOGaayjkaiaawMca amaaCaaaleqabaGccWaGyBOmGikaaiaaiYcaaaa@59AC@ and z i j , 10 = ( 0 p 09 , x i j , 10 ) . MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaCOEamaaBa aaleaacaWGPbGaamOAaiaaygW7caaISaGaaGPaVlaaigdacaaIWaaa beaakiaai2dadaqadaqaaiaahcdadaqhaaWcbaGaamiCamaaBaaame aacaaIWaGaaGyoaaqabaaaleaajugybiadaITHYaIOaaGccaaMb8Ua aGilaiaaysW7caWH4bWaa0baaSqaaiaadMgacaWGQbGaaGzaVlaaiY cacaaMc8UaaGymaiaaicdaaeaajugybiadaITHYaIOaaaakiaawIca caGLPaaadaahaaWcbeqaaOGamai2gkdiIcaacaaMb8UaaiOlaaaa@5CB4@ Let y i j = ( y i j , 09 , y i j , 10 ) . MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaCyEamaaDa aaleaacaWGPbGaamOAaaqaaKqzGfGamai2gkdiIcaakiaai2dadaqa daqaaiaadMhadaWgaaWcbaGaamyAaiaadQgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaayk W7caaIWaGaaGyoaaqabaGccaaMb8UaaGilaiaaysW7caWG5bWaaSba aSqaaiaadMgacaWGQbGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMc8UaaGymaiaaicdaae qaaaGccaGLOaGaayzkaaGaaGOlaaaa@53E5@ Let A i MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamyqamaaBa aaleaacaWGPbaabeaaaaa@3781@ be the set of units (farm operators) in county i MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamyAaaaa@368F@ that are in set 1, B i , 09 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamOqamaaBa aaleaacaWGPbGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMc8UaaGimaiaaiMdaaeqaaaaa @3CCA@ be the set of units in county i MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamyAaaaa@368F@ that are in set 2, and B i , 10 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamOqamaaBa aaleaacaWGPbGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMc8UaaGymaiaaicdaaeqaaaaa @3CC2@ be the set of units in county i MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamyAaaaa@368F@ that are in set 3, where set 1, set 2, and set 3 are defined in Section 3. Full conditionals are as follows.

  1. β | ( Θ β , y ) N ( Σ β β r β , Σ β β ) , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaqGaaeaaca WHYoGaaGPaVdGaayjcSdGaaGPaVpaabmaabaGaeuiMde1aaSbaaSqa aiaahk7aaeqaaOGaaGilaiaahMhaaiaawIcacaGLPaaarqqr1ngBPr gifHhDYfgaiuaacqWF8iIocaqGobWaaeWaaeaacaWHJoWaaSbaaSqa aiabek7aIjabek7aIbqabaGccaWHYbWaaSbaaSqaaiabek7aIbqaba GccaaMb8UaaGilaiaaysW7caWHJoWaaSbaaSqaaiabek7aIjabek7a IbqabaaakiaawIcacaGLPaaacaGGSaaaaa@5A67@ where

Σ β β = [ i = 1 D j A i X i j D w i j 0 .5 Σ e e 1 D w i j 0 .5 X i j + 10 6 I p 09 + p 10 + Ω ] 1 ( A .1 ) Ω = block-diag ( τ e , 09 2 i = 1 D j B i , 09 w i j , 09 x i j , 09 x i j , 09 , τ e , 10 2 i = 1 D j B i , 10 w i j , 10 x i j , 10 x i j , 10 ) r β = i = 1 D j A i X i j D w i j 0 .5 Σ e e 1 D w i j 0 .5 ( y i j v i + r β 2 ) , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaqbaeaabmGaaa qaaiaaho6adaWgaaWcbaGaeqOSdiMaeqOSdigabeaaaOqaaiaai2da daWadaqaamaaqahabeWcbaGaamyAaiaai2dacaaIXaaabaGaamiraa qdcqGHris5aOGaaGPaVpaaqafabeWcbaGaamOAaiabgIGiolaadgea daWgaaadbaGaamyAaaqabaaaleqaniabggHiLdGccaaMc8UaaCiwam aaDaaaleaacaWGPbGaamOAaaqaaKqzGfGamai2gkdiIcaakiaahsea daqhaaWcbaGaam4DaiaadMgacaWGQbaabaGaaeimaiaab6cacaqG1a aaaOGaaGPaVlaaho6adaqhaaWcbaGaamyzaiaadwgaaeaacqGHsisl caaIXaaaaOGaaCiramaaDaaaleaacaWG3bGaamyAaiaadQgaaeaaca qGWaGaaeOlaiaabwdaaaGccaWHybWaaSbaaSqaaiaadMgacaWGQbaa beaakiabgUcaRiaaigdacaaIWaWaaWbaaSqabeaacqGHsislcaaI2a aaaOGaaCysamaaBaaaleaacaWGWbWaaSbaaeaacaaIWaGaaGyoaaqa baGaey4kaSIaamiCamaaBaaabaGaaGymaiaaicdaaeqaaaqabaGccq GHRaWkcaWHPoaacaGLBbGaayzxaaWaaWbaaSqabeaacqGHsislcaaI XaaaaOGaaGzbVlaaywW7caaMf8UaaGzbVlaaywW7caaMf8UaaGzbVl aaywW7caGGOaGaaeyqaiaac6cacaaIXaGaaiykaaqaaiaahM6aaeaa caaI9aGaaeOyaiaabYgacaqGVbGaae4yaiaabUgacaqGTaGaaeizai aabMgacaqGHbGaae4zamaabmaabaGaeqiXdq3aa0baaSqaaiaadwga caaMb8UaaGilaiaayIW7caaIWaGaaGyoaaqaaiabgkHiTiaaikdaaa GcdaaeWbqabSqaaiaadMgacaaI9aGaaGymaaqaaiaadseaa0Gaeyye IuoakiaaykW7daaeqbqabSqaaiaadQgacqGHiiIZcaWGcbWaaSbaaW qaaiaadMgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaayIW7caaIWaGaaGyoaaqabaaaleqa niabggHiLdGccaaMc8Uaam4DamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaamOAaiaayg W7caaISaGaaGjcVlaaicdacaaI5aaabeaakiaahIhadaWgaaWcbaGa amyAaiaadQgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaayIW7caaIWaGaaGyoaaqabaGcca WH4bWaa0baaSqaaiaadMgacaWGQbGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMi8UaaGim aiaaiMdaaeaajugybiadaITHYaIOaaGccaaISaGaeqiXdq3aa0baaS qaaiaadwgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaayIW7caaIXaGaaGimaaqaaiabgkHi TiaaikdaaaGcdaaeWbqabSqaaiaadMgacaaI9aGaaGymaaqaaiaads eaa0GaeyyeIuoakiaaykW7daaeqbqabSqaaiaadQgacqGHiiIZcaWG cbWaaSbaaWqaaiaadMgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaayIW7caaIXaGaaGimaa qabaaaleqaniabggHiLdGccaaMc8Uaam4DamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGa amOAaiaaygW7caaISaGaaGjcVlaaigdacaaIWaaabeaakiaahIhada WgaaWcbaGaamyAaiaadQgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaayIW7caaIXaGaaGim aaqabaGccaWH4bWaa0baaSqaaiaadMgacaWGQbGaaGzaVlaaiYcaca aMi8UaaGymaiaaicdaaeaajugybiadaITHYaIOaaaakiaawIcacaGL PaaaaeaacaWHYbWaaSbaaSqaaiabek7aIbqabaaakeaacaaI9aWaaa bCaeqaleaacaWGPbGaaGypaiaaigdaaeaacaWGebaaniabggHiLdGc caaMc8+aaabuaeqaleaacaWGQbGaeyicI4SaamyqamaaBaaameaaca WGPbaabeaaaSqab0GaeyyeIuoakiaaykW7caWHybWaa0baaSqaaiaa dMgacaWGQbaabaqcLbwacWaGyBOmGikaaOGaaCiramaaDaaaleaaca WG3bGaamyAaiaadQgaaeaacaqGWaGaaeOlaiaabwdaaaGccaWHJoWa a0baaSqaaiaadwgacaWGLbaabaGaeyOeI0IaaGymaaaakiaahseada qhaaWcbaGaam4DaiaadMgacaWGQbaabaGaaeimaiaab6cacaqG1aaa aOWaaeWaaeaacaWH5bWaaSbaaSqaaiaadMgacaWGQbaabeaakiabgk HiTiaahAhadaWgaaWcbaGaamyAaaqabaGccqGHRaWkcaWHYbWaaSba aSqaaiabek7aIjaaikdaaeqaaaGccaGLOaGaayzkaaGaaGilaaaaaa a@41BD@

  1. and

r β 2 = ( i = 1 D j B i , 09 τ e , 09 2 w i j , 09 x i j , 09 ( y i j , 09 ν i , 09 ) i = 1 D j B i , 10 τ e , 10 2 w i j , 10 x i j , 10 ( y i j , 10 ν i , 10 ) ) . ( A .2 ) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaCOCamaaBa aaleaacqaHYoGycaaIYaaabeaakiaai2dadaqadaqaauaabeqaceaa aeaadaaeWaqaamaaqababaGaeqiXdq3aa0baaSqaaiaadwgacaaMb8 UaaGilaiaaykW7caaIWaGaaGyoaaqaaiabgkHiTiaaikdaaaGccaWG 3bWaaSbaaSqaaiaadMgacaWGQbGaaGzaVlaacYcacaaMc8UaaGimai aaiMdaaeqaaOGaaCiEamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaamOAaiaaygW7caaI SaGaaGPaVlaaicdacaaI5aaabeaakmaabmaabaGaamyEamaaBaaale aacaWGPbGaamOAaiaaygW7caaISaGaaGPaVlaaicdacaaI5aaabeaa kiabgkHiTiabe27aUnaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMc8 UaaGimaiaaiMdaaeqaaaGccaGLOaGaayzkaaaaleaacaWGQbGaeyic I4SaamOqamaaBaaameaacaWGPbGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMc8UaaGimai aaiMdaaeqaaaWcbeqdcqGHris5aaWcbaGaamyAaiaai2dacaaIXaaa baGaamiraaqdcqGHris5aaGcbaWaaabmaeaadaaeqaqaaiabes8a0n aaDaaaleaacaWGLbGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMc8UaaGymaiaaicdaaeaa cqGHsislcaaIYaaaaOGaam4DamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaamOAaiaayg W7caaISaGaaGPaVlaaigdacaaIWaaabeaakiaahIhadaWgaaWcbaGa amyAaiaadQgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaaykW7caaIXaGaaGimaaqabaGcda qadaqaaiaadMhadaWgaaWcbaGaamyAaiaadQgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaa ykW7caaIXaGaaGimaaqabaGccqGHsislcqaH9oGBdaWgaaWcbaGaam yAaiaaygW7caaISaGaaGPaVlaaigdacaaIWaaabeaaaOGaayjkaiaa wMcaaaWcbaGaamOAaiabgIGiolaadkeadaWgaaadbaGaamyAaiaayg W7caaISaGaaGPaVlaaigdacaaIWaaabeaaaSqab0GaeyyeIuoaaSqa aiaadMgacaaI9aGaaGymaaqaaiaadseaa0GaeyyeIuoaaaaakiaawI cacaGLPaaacaaIUaGaaGzbVlaaywW7caaMf8UaaGzbVlaaywW7caGG OaGaaeyqaiaac6cacaaIYaGaaiykaaaa@C3F8@

  1. Σ e e | ( Θ Σ e e , y ) Inverse-Wishart ( A e , d e ) , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaqGaaeaaca WHJoWaaSbaaSqaaiaadwgacaWGLbaabeaakiaaykW7aiaawIa7aiaa ykW7daqadaqaaiaahI5adaWgaaWcbaGaaC4OdmaaBaaameaacaWGLb GaamyzaaqabaaaleqaaOGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMe8UaaCyEaaGaayjk aiaawMcaaebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaGqbaiab=XJi6iaabMeacaqGUb GaaeODaiaabwgacaqGYbGaae4CaiaabwgacaqGTaGaae4vaiaabMga caqGZbGaaeiAaiaabggacaqGYbGaaeiDamaabmaabaGaaCyqamaaBa aaleaacaWGLbaabeaakiaaygW7caaISaGaaGjbVlaadsgadaWgaaWc baGaamyzaaqabaaakiaawIcacaGLPaaacaGGSaaaaa@65BD@ where d e = i = 1 D | A i | + 0 .001, MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamizamaaBa aaleaacaWGLbaabeaakiaai2dadaaeWaqabSqaaiaadMgacaaI9aGa aGymaaqaaiaadseaa0GaeyyeIuoakmaaemaabaGaaGjcVlaadgeada WgaaWcbaGaamyAaaqabaGccaaMi8oacaGLhWUaayjcSdGaey4kaSIa aeimaiaab6cacaqGWaGaaeimaiaabgdacaqGSaaaaa@4AF4@ and

A e = i = 1 D j A i D w i j 0 .5 ( y i j ν i X i j β ) ( y i j ν i X i j β ) D w i j 0 .5 . ( A .3 ) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaCyqamaaBa aaleaacaWGLbaabeaakiaai2dadaaeWbqabSqaaiaadMgacaaI9aGa aGymaaqaaiaadseaa0GaeyyeIuoakiaaykW7daaeqbqabSqaaiaadQ gacqGHiiIZcaWGbbWaaSbaaWqaaiaadMgaaeqaaaWcbeqdcqGHris5 aOGaaGPaVlaahseadaqhaaWcbaGaam4DamaaBaaameaacaWGPbGaam OAaaqabaaaleaacaqGWaGaaeOlaiaabwdaaaGcdaqadaqaaiaahMha daWgaaWcbaGaamyAaiaadQgaaeqaaOGaeyOeI0IaaCyVdmaaBaaale aacaWGPbaabeaakiabgkHiTiaahIfadaWgaaWcbaGaamyAaiaadQga aeqaaOGaaCOSdaGaayjkaiaawMcaamaabmaabaGaaCyEamaaBaaale aacaWGPbGaamOAaaqabaGccqGHsislcaWH9oWaaSbaaSqaaiaadMga aeqaaOGaeyOeI0IaaCiwamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaamOAaaqabaGcca WHYoaacaGLOaGaayzkaaWaaWbaaSqabeaakiadaITHYaIOaaGaaCir amaaDaaaleaacaWG3bWaaSbaaWqaaiaadMgacaWGQbaabeaaaSqaai aabcdacaqGUaGaaeynaaaakiaac6cacaaMf8UaaGzbVlaaywW7caaM f8UaaiikaiaabgeacaGGUaGaaG4maiaacMcaaaa@7B97@

  1. Σ ν ν | ( Θ Q Σ v v , y ) Inverse-Wishart ( A ν , d ν ) , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaqGaaeaaca WHJoWaaSbaaSqaaiabe27aUjabe27aUbqabaGccaaMc8oacaGLiWoa caaMc8+aaeWaaeaacaWHyoGaaKyuamaaBaaaleaacaWHJoWaaSbaaW qaaiaadAhacaWG2baabeaaaSqabaGccaaMb8UaaGilaiaaysW7caWH 5baacaGLOaGaayzkaaqeeuuDJXwAKbsr4rNCHbacfaGae8hpIOJaae ysaiaab6gacaqG2bGaaeyzaiaabkhacaqGZbGaaeyzaiaab2cacaqG xbGaaeyAaiaabohacaqGObGaaeyyaiaabkhacaqG0bWaaeWaaeaaca WHbbWaaSbaaSqaaiabe27aUbqabaGccaaMb8UaaGilaiaaysW7caWG KbWaaSbaaSqaaiabe27aUbqabaaakiaawIcacaGLPaaacaGGSaaaaa@69F3@ where

d ν = D + 0 .001 , ( A .4 ) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamizamaaBa aaleaacqaH9oGBaeqaaOGaaGypaiaadseacqGHRaWkcaqGWaGaaeOl aiaabcdacaqGWaGaaeymaiaaiYcacaaMf8UaaGzbVlaaywW7caaMf8 UaaGzbVlaacIcacaqGbbGaaiOlaiaaisdacaGGPaaaaa@4A70@

A ν = i = 1 D ν i ν i . ( A .5 ) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaCyqamaaBa aaleaacqaH9oGBaeqaaOGaaGypamaaqahabeWcbaGaamyAaiaai2da caaIXaaabaGaamiraaqdcqGHris5aOGaaGPaVlaah27adaWgaaWcba GaamyAaaqabaGccaWH9oWaa0baaSqaaiaadMgaaeaajugybiadaITH YaIOaaGccaaIUaGaaGzbVlaaywW7caaMf8UaaGzbVlaaywW7caGGOa Gaaeyqaiaac6cacaaI1aGaaiykaaaa@54C6@

τ e , t 2 | ( Θ τ e , t 2 , y ) Inverse-Gamma ( a e t , d e t ) , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaqGaaeaacq aHepaDdaqhaaWcbaGaamyzaiaaygW7caaISaGaaGPaVlaadshaaeaa caaIYaaaaOGaaGPaVdGaayjcSdGaaGPaVpaabmaabaGaaCiMdmaaBa aaleaacqaHepaDdaqhaaadbaGaamyzaiaaygW7caGGSaGaaGPaVlaa dshaaeaacaaIYaaaaaWcbeaakiaaygW7caaISaGaaGjbVlaahMhaai aawIcacaGLPaaarqqr1ngBPrgifHhDYfgaiuaacqWF8iIocaqGjbGa aeOBaiaabAhacaqGLbGaaeOCaiaabohacaqGLbGaaeylaiaabEeaca qGHbGaaeyBaiaab2gacaqGHbWaaeWaaeaacaWGHbWaaSbaaSqaaiaa dwgacaWG0baabeaakiaaygW7caaISaGaaGjbVlaadsgadaWgaaWcba GaamyzaiaadshaaeqaaaGccaGLOaGaayzkaaGaaiilaaaa@701A@ where

d e t = i = 1 D | B i , t | + 0 .001 , ( A .6 ) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamizamaaBa aaleaacaWGLbGaamiDaaqabaGccaaI9aWaaabCaeqaleaacaWGPbGa aGypaiaaigdaaeaacaWGebaaniabggHiLdGccaaMe8+aaqWaaeaaca aMi8UaamOqamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMc8UaamiD aaqabaGccaaMi8oacaGLhWUaayjcSdGaey4kaSIaaeimaiaab6caca qGWaGaaeimaiaabgdacaaISaGaaGzbVlaaywW7caaMf8UaaGzbVlaa ywW7caGGOaGaaeyqaiaac6cacaaI2aGaaiykaaaa@5DDA@

a e t = i = 1 D j B i t D w i j ( y i j , t ν i , t x i j , t β t ) 2 . ( A .7 ) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamyyamaaBa aaleaacaWGLbGaamiDaaqabaGccaaI9aWaaabCaeqaleaacaWGPbGa aGypaiaaigdaaeaacaWGebaaniabggHiLdGccaaMc8+aaabuaeqale aacaWGQbGaeyicI4SaamOqamaaBaaameaacaWGPbGaamiDaaqabaaa leqaniabggHiLdGccaaMc8UaaCiramaaBaaaleaacaWG3bGaamyAam aaBaaameaacaWGQbaabeaaaSqabaGcdaqadaqaaiaadMhadaWgaaWc baGaamyAaiaadQgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaaykW7caWG0baabeaakiabgk HiTiabe27aUnaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMc8UaamiD aaqabaGccqGHsislcaWH4bWaaSbaaSqaaiaadMgacaWGQbGaaGzaVl aaiYcacaaMc8UaamiDaaqabaGccaWHYoWaaSbaaSqaaiaadshaaeqa aaGccaGLOaGaayzkaaWaaWbaaSqabeaacaaIYaaaaOGaaGzaVlaai6 cacaaMf8UaaGzbVlaaywW7caaMf8UaaGzbVlaacIcacaqGbbGaaiOl aiaaiEdacaGGPaaaaa@7945@

  1. ν i | ( Θ ν i , y ) N ( μ ν ν , M i 1 ) , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaWaaqGaaeaaca WH9oWaaSbaaSqaaiaadMgaaeqaaOGaaGPaVdGaayjcSdGaaGPaVpaa bmaabaGaaCiMdmaaBaaaleaacqaH9oGBdaWgaaadbaGaamyAaaqaba aaleqaaOGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMe8UaaCyEaaGaayjkaiaawMcaaebb fv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaGqbaiab=XJi6iaab6eadaqadaqaaiaahY7ada WgaaWcbaGaeqyVd4MaeqyVd4gabeaakiaaiYcacaaMe8UaaCytamaa DaaaleaacaWGPbaabaGaeyOeI0IaaGymaaaaaOGaayjkaiaawMcaai aacYcaaaa@5AE1@ where

M i = ( Σ ν ν 1 + Σ e e , w i 1 + Ω e e , w i 1 ) 1 , ( A .8 ) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaCytamaaBa aaleaacaWGPbaabeaakiaai2dadaqadaqaaiaaho6adaqhaaWcbaGa eqyVd4MaeqyVd4gabaGaeyOeI0IaaGymaaaakiabgUcaRiaaho6ada qhaaWcbaGaamyzaiaadwgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaayIW7caWG3bGaamyA aaqaaiabgkHiTiaaigdaaaGccqGHRaWkcaWHPoWaa0baaSqaaiaadw gacaWGLbGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMi8Uaam4DaiaadMgaaeaacqGHsisl caaIXaaaaaGccaGLOaGaayzkaaWaaWbaaSqabeaacqGHsislcaaIXa aaaOGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMf8UaaGzbVlaaywW7caaMf8UaaGzbVlaa cIcacaqGbbGaaiOlaiaaiIdacaGGPaaaaa@66E2@

W e e , w i = diag ( τ e , 09 2 j B i 09 w i j , 09 , τ e , 10 2 j B i 10 w i j , 10 ) , ( A .9 ) r i 1 = j A i D w i j 0 .5 Σ e e 1 D w i j 0 .5 ( y i j X i j β ) , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrpgpu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaqbaeaabiGaaa qaaiaajEfadaWgaaWcbaGaamyzaiaadwgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaaykW7 caWG3bGaamyAaaqabaaakeaacaaI9aGaaeizaiaabMgacaqGHbGaae 4zamaabmaabaGaeqiXdq3aa0baaSqaaiaadwgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaa ykW7caaIWaGaaGyoaaqaaiabgkHiTiaaikdaaaGcdaaeqbqabSqaai aadQgacqGHiiIZcaWGcbWaaSbaaWqaaiaadMgacaaIWaGaaGyoaaqa baaaleqaniabggHiLdGccaWG3bWaaSbaaSqaaiaadMgacaWGQbGaaG zaVlaaiYcacaaMc8UaaGimaiaaiMdaaeqaaOGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaM e8UaeqiXdq3aa0baaSqaaiaadwgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaaykW7caaIXa GaaGimaaqaaiabgkHiTiaaikdaaaGcdaaeqbqabSqaaiaadQgacqGH iiIZcaWGcbWaaSbaaWqaaiaadMgacaaIXaGaaGimaaqabaaaleqani abggHiLdGccaWG3bWaaSbaaSqaaiaadMgacaWGQbGaaGzaVlaaiYca caaMc8UaaGymaiaaicdaaeqaaaGccaGLOaGaayzkaaGaaGilaiaayw W7caaMf8UaaGzbVlaaywW7caaMf8UaaiikaiaabgeacaGGUaGaaGyo aiaacMcaaeaacaWHYbWaaSbaaSqaaiaadMgadaWgaaadbaGaaGymaa qabaaaleqaaaGcbaGaaGypamaaqafabeWcbaGaamOAaiabgIGiolaa dgeadaWgaaadbaGaamyAaaqabaaaleqaniabggHiLdGccaaMc8UaaC iramaaDaaaleaacaWG3bWaaSbaaWqaaiaadMgacaWGQbaabeaaaSqa aiaabcdacaqGUaGaaeynaaaakiaaho6adaqhaaWcbaGaamyzaiaadw gaaeaacqGHsislcaaIXaaaaOGaaCiramaaDaaaleaacaWG3bWaaSba aWqaaiaadMgacaWGQbaabeaaaSqaaiaabcdacaqGUaGaaeynaaaakm aabmaabaGaaCyEamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaamOAaaqabaGccqGHsisl caWHybWaa0baaSqaaiaadMgacaWGQbaabaqcLbwacWaGyBOmGikaaO GaaCOSdaGaayjkaiaawMcaaiaaiYcaaaaaaa@B3D3@

r i 2 = ( j B i , 09 w i j , 09 ( y i j , 09 x i j , 09 β 09 ) τ e , 09 2 j B i , 10 w i j , 10 ( y i j , 10 x i j , 10 β 10 ) τ e , 10 2 ) . ( A .10 ) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrpgpu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaCOCamaaBa aaleaacaWGPbWaaSbaaWqaaiaaikdaaeqaaaWcbeaakiaai2dadaqa daqaauaabeqaceaaaeaadaaeqaqaaiaadEhadaWgaaWcbaGaamyAai aadQgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaaykW7caaIWaGaaGyoaaqabaGcdaqadaqa aiaadMhadaWgaaWcbaGaamyAaiaadQgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaaykW7ca aIWaGaaGyoaaqabaGccqGHsislcaWH4bWaa0baaSqaaiaadMgacaWG QbGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMc8UaaGimaiaaiMdaaeaajugybiadaITHYa IOaaGccaWHYoWaaSbaaSqaaiaaicdacaaI5aaabeaaaOGaayjkaiaa wMcaaaWcbaGaamOAaiabgIGiolaadkeadaWgaaadbaGaamyAaiaayg W7caaISaGaaGPaVlaaicdacaaI5aaabeaaaSqab0GaeyyeIuoakiaa ysW7cqaHepaDdaqhaaWcbaGaamyzaiaaygW7caaISaGaaGPaVlaaic dacaaI5aaabaGaeyOeI0IaaGOmaaaaaOqaamaaqababaGaam4Damaa BaaaleaacaWGPbGaamOAaiaaygW7caaISaGaaGPaVlaaigdacaaIWa aabeaakmaabmaabaGaamyEamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaamOAaiaaygW7 caaISaGaaGPaVlaaigdacaaIWaaabeaakiabgkHiTiaahIhadaqhaa WcbaGaamyAaiaadQgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaaykW7caaIXaGaaGimaaqa aKqzGfGamai2gkdiIcaakiaahk7adaWgaaWcbaGaaGymaiaaicdaae qaaaGccaGLOaGaayzkaaaaleaacaWGQbGaeyicI4SaamOqamaaBaaa meaacaWGPbGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMc8UaaGymaiaaicdaaeqaaaWcbe qdcqGHris5aOGaaGjbVlabes8a0naaDaaaleaacaWGLbGaaGzaVlaa iYcacaaMc8UaaGymaiaaicdaaeaacqGHsislcaaIYaaaaaaaaOGaay jkaiaawMcaaiaai6cacaaMf8UaaGzbVlaaywW7caaMf8UaaGzbVlaa cIcacaqGbbGaaiOlaiaaigdacaaIWaGaaiykaaaa@B9DF@

Appendix B

We define an estimator of the diagonal elements of V { x ¯ w i 10 | x ¯ N i , 10 } : = V x x i , 10 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamOvamaacm aabaWaaqGaaeaaceWH4bGbaebadaWgaaWcbaGaam4DaiaadMgacaaI XaGaaGimaaqabaGccaaMc8oacaGLiWoacaaMc8UabCiEayaaraWaaS baaSqaaiaad6eadaWgaaadbaGaamyAaaqabaWccaaMb8UaaGilaiaa ykW7caaIXaGaaGimaaqabaaakiaawUhacaGL9baacaaI6aGaaGypai aahAfadaWgaaWcbaGaamiEaiaadIhacaWGPbGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaM c8UaaGymaiaaicdaaeqaaaaa@554D@ corresponding to unit-level covariates, x i j k 10 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaCiEamaaBa aaleaacaWGPbGaamOAaiaadUgacaaIXaGaaGimaaqabaaaaa@3B10@ for k = 1, , p 10 . MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaam4Aaiaai2 dacaaIXaGaaGilaiaaysW7cqWIMaYscaaISaGaaGjbVlaadchadaWg aaWcbaGaaGymaiaaicdaaeqaaOGaaiOlaaaa@410D@ The variance estimator is based on a working assumption that a probability proportional to size with replacement (PPSWR) sample is a reasonable approximation for the cash rent survey design. As discussed in Cochran (1977), use of a PPSWR approximation is often reasonable if the sampling fraction is less than 10%. Suppose the draw probability for element j MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamOAaaaa@368F@ in area i MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamyAaaaa@368E@ for the PPSWR design is p i j = n i 10 1 w i j , 10 1 . MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamiCamaaBa aaleaacaWGPbGaamOAaaqabaGccaaI9aGaamOBamaaDaaaleaacaWG PbGaaGymaiaaicdaaeaacqGHsislcaaIXaaaaOGaam4DamaaDaaale aacaWGPbGaamOAaiaaygW7caaISaGaaGPaVlaaigdacaaIWaaabaGa eyOeI0IaaGymaaaakiaac6caaaa@494E@ Because n i 10 1 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamOBamaaBa aaleaacaWGPbGaaGymaiaaicdaaeqaaOGaeyizImQaaGymaaaa@3B9D@ for some counties, we define the estimator of the diagonal elements of V x x i 10 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaCOvamaaBa aaleaacaWG4bGaamiEaiaadMgacaaIXaGaaGimaaqabaaaaa@3B09@ corresponding to unit level covariates as a convex combination of a direct estimator of the within-area variance and a variance estimator that pools information across all counties in a state. For area i MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamyAaaaa@368F@ with n i 10 > 1 , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamOBamaaBa aaleaacaWGPbGaaGymaiaaicdaaeqaaOGaaGOpaiaaigdacaGGSaaa aa@3B60@ the estimate of the within-area variance of x i j k 10 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamiEamaaBa aaleaacaWGPbGaamOAaiaadUgacaaIXaGaaGimaaqabaaaaa@3B0C@ under the assumed PPSWR design (Särndal, Swensson and Wretman, 1992) is given by

S i k 10 2 = n i 10 2 ( j = 1 n i 10 w i j , 10 ) 2 ( n i 10 1 ) j = 1 n i 10 w i j , 10 2 ( x i j k 10 x ¯ w i k 10 ) 2 , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaam4uamaaDa aaleaacaWGPbGaam4AaiaaigdacaaIWaaabaGaaGOmaaaakiaai2da daWcaaqaaiaad6gadaqhaaWcbaGaamyAaiaaigdacaaIWaaabaGaaG OmaaaaaOqaamaabmaabaWaaabmaeaacaWG3bWaaSbaaSqaaiaadMga caWGQbGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMc8UaaGymaiaaicdaaeqaaaqaaiaadQ gacaaI9aGaaGymaaqaaiaad6gadaWgaaadbaGaamyAaiaaigdacaaI Waaabeaaa0GaeyyeIuoaaOGaayjkaiaawMcaamaaCaaaleqabaGaaG OmaaaakmaabmaabaGaamOBamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaaGymaiaaicda aeqaaOGaeyOeI0IaaGymaaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaaadaaeWbqabSqaai aadQgacaaI9aGaaGymaaqaaiaad6gadaWgaaadbaGaamyAaiaaigda caaIWaaabeaaa0GaeyyeIuoakiaaykW7caWG3bWaa0baaSqaaiaadM gacaWGQbGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMc8UaaGymaiaaicdaaeaacaaIYaaa aOWaaeWaaeaacaWG4bWaaSbaaSqaaiaadMgacaWGQbGaam4Aaiaaig dacaaIWaaabeaakiabgkHiTiqadIhagaqeamaaBaaaleaacaWG3bGa amyAaiaadUgacaaIXaGaaGimaaqabaaakiaawIcacaGLPaaadaahaa WcbeqaaiaaikdaaaGccaaMb8UaaGilaaaa@7CE1@

where x ¯ w i k 10 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGabmiEayaara WaaSbaaSqaaiaadEhacaWGPbGaam4AaiaaigdacaaIWaaabeaaaaa@3B31@ is the k th MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaam4AamaaCa aaleqabaGaaeiDaiaabIgaaaaaaa@38A0@ element of x ¯ w i 10 . MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGabCiEayaara WaaSbaaSqaaiaadEhacaWGPbGaaGymaiaaicdaaeqaaOGaaiOlaaaa @3B01@ The pooled estimator of the variance is defined by

S p k 10 2 = 1 w ..10 2 ( n ˜ 10 D ˜ 10 ) i = 1 D ( n i 10 2 j = 1 n i 10 w i j , 10 2 ( x i j k 10 x ¯ w i k 10 ) 2 ) I [ n i 10 > 1 ] , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaam4uamaaDa aaleaacaWGWbGaam4AaiaaigdacaaIWaaabaGaaGOmaaaakiaai2da daWcaaqaaiaaigdaaeaacaWG3bWaa0baaSqaaiaai6cacaaIUaGaaG ymaiaaicdaaeaacaaIYaaaaOWaaeWaaeaaceWGUbGbaGaadaWgaaWc baGaaGymaiaaicdaaeqaaOGaeyOeI0IabmirayaaiaWaaSbaaSqaai aaigdacaaIWaaabeaaaOGaayjkaiaawMcaaaaadaaeWbqabSqaaiaa dMgacaaI9aGaaGymaaqaaiaadseaa0GaeyyeIuoakmaabmaabaGaam OBamaaDaaaleaacaWGPbGaaGymaiaaicdaaeaacaaIYaaaaOWaaabC aeqaleaacaWGQbGaaGypaiaaigdaaeaacaWGUbWaaSbaaWqaaiaadM gacaaIXaGaaGimaaqabaaaniabggHiLdGccaaMc8Uaam4DamaaDaaa leaacaWGPbGaamOAaiaaygW7caaISaGaaGPaVlaaigdacaaIWaaaba GaaGOmaaaakmaabmaabaGaamiEamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaamOAaiaa dUgacaaIXaGaaGimaaqabaGccqGHsislceWG4bGbaebadaWgaaWcba Gaam4DaiaadMgacaWGRbGaaGymaiaaicdaaeqaaaGccaGLOaGaayzk aaWaaWbaaSqabeaacaaIYaaaaaGccaGLOaGaayzkaaGaamysamaadm aabaGaamOBamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaaGymaiaaicdaaeqaaOGaaGOp aiaaigdaaiaawUfacaGLDbaacaaISaaaaa@7DFE@

where w ..10 = i = 1 D ( j = 1 n i w i j , 10 ) I [ n i > 1 ] , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaam4DamaaBa aaleaacaaIUaGaaGOlaiaaigdacaaIWaaabeaakiaai2dadaaeWaqa bSqaaiaadMgacaaI9aGaaGymaaqaaiaadseaa0GaeyyeIuoakmaabm aabaWaaabmaeqaleaacaWGQbGaaGypaiaaigdaaeaacaWGUbWaaSba aWqaaiaadMgaaeqaaaqdcqGHris5aOGaaGPaVlaadEhadaWgaaWcba GaamyAaiaadQgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaaykW7caaIXaGaaGimaaqabaaa kiaawIcacaGLPaaacaWGjbWaamWaaeaacaWGUbWaaSbaaSqaaiaadM gaaeqaaOGaaGOpaiaaigdaaiaawUfacaGLDbaacaGGSaaaaa@58BE@ n ˜ 10 = i = 1 D n i 10 I [ n i 10 > 1 ] , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGabmOBayaaia WaaSbaaSqaaiaaigdacaaIWaaabeaakiaai2dadaaeWaqabSqaaiaa dMgacaaI9aGaaGymaaqaaiaadseaa0GaeyyeIuoakiaaykW7caWGUb WaaSbaaSqaaiaadMgacaaIXaGaaGimaaqabaGccaaMc8Uaamysamaa dmaabaGaamOBamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaaGymaiaaicdaaeqaaOGaaG OpaiaaigdaaiaawUfacaGLDbaacaGGSaaaaa@4D7C@ and D ˜ 10 = i = 1 D I [ n i 10 > 1 ] . MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGabmirayaaia WaaSbaaSqaaiaaigdacaaIWaaabeaakiaai2dadaaeWaqabSqaaiaa dMgacaaI9aGaaGymaaqaaiaadseaa0GaeyyeIuoakiaaykW7caWGjb WaamWaaeaacaWGUbWaaSbaaSqaaiaadMgacaaIXaGaaGimaaqabaGc caaI+aGaaGymaaGaay5waiaaw2faaiaac6caaaa@483D@ The element of the diagonal covariance matrix V x x i , 10 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaCOvamaaBa aaleaacaWG4bGaamiEaiaadMgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaaykW7caaIXaGa aGimaaqabaaaaa@3ED3@ corresponding to the k th MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaam4AamaaCa aaleqabaGaaeiDaiaabIgaaaaaaa@38A0@ unit level covariate is then given by

V ^ { x ¯ w i k 10 } = n i 10 1 S ^ i k 10 2 I [ n i 10 1 ] + n i 10 1 S p k 10 2 I [ n i 10 = 1 ] , ( B .1 ) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGabmOvayaaja WaaiWaaeaaceWG4bGbaebadaWgaaWcbaGaam4DaiaadMgacaWGRbGa aGymaiaaicdaaeqaaaGccaGL7bGaayzFaaGaaGypaiaad6gadaqhaa WcbaGaamyAaiaaigdacaaIWaaabaGaeyOeI0IaaGymaaaakiaaykW7 ceWGtbGbaKaadaqhaaWcbaGaamyAaiaadUgacaaIXaGaaGimaaqaai aaikdaaaGccaaMc8UaamysamaadmaabaGaamOBamaaBaaaleaacaWG PbGaaGymaiaaicdaaeqaaOGaeyiyIKRaaGymaaGaay5waiaaw2faai abgUcaRiaad6gadaqhaaWcbaGaamyAaiaaigdacaaIWaaabaGaeyOe I0IaaGymaaaakiaaykW7caWGtbWaa0baaSqaaiaadchacaWGRbGaaG ymaiaaicdaaeaacaaIYaaaaOGaaGPaVlaadMeadaWadaqaaiaad6ga daWgaaWcbaGaamyAaiaaigdacaaIWaaabeaakiaai2dacaaIXaaaca GLBbGaayzxaaGaaGilaiaaywW7caaMf8UaaGzbVlaaywW7caGGOaGa aeOqaiaac6cacaaIXaGaaiykaaaa@75FD@

where

S ^ i k 10 2 = n i 10 n i 10 + 1 S i k 10 2 + 1 n i 10 + 1 S p k 10 2 . ( B .2 ) MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGabm4uayaaja Waa0baaSqaaiaadMgacaWGRbGaaGymaiaaicdaaeaacaaIYaaaaOGa aGypamaalaaabaGaamOBamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaaGymaiaaicdaae qaaaGcbaGaamOBamaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaaGymaiaaicdaaeqaaOGa ey4kaSIaaGymaaaacaWGtbWaa0baaSqaaiaadMgacaWGRbGaaGymai aaicdaaeaacaaIYaaaaOGaey4kaSYaaSaaaeaacaaIXaaabaGaamOB amaaBaaaleaacaWGPbGaaGymaiaaicdaaeqaaOGaey4kaSIaaGymaa aacaWGtbWaa0baaSqaaiaadchacaWGRbGaaGymaiaaicdaaeaacaaI YaaaaOGaaGOlaiaaywW7caaMf8UaaGzbVlaaywW7caaMf8Uaaiikai aabkeacaGGUaGaaGOmaiaacMcaaaa@617D@

We provide a heuristic justification for the combination in (B.2), which is related to Haff (1980). Let S 2 = n 1 i = 1 n X i 2 , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaam4uamaaCa aaleqabaGaaGOmaaaakiaai2dacaWGUbWaaWbaaSqabeaacqGHsisl caaIXaaaaOWaaabmaeqaleaacaWGPbGaaGypaiaaigdaaeaacaWGUb aaniabggHiLdGccaaMc8UaamiwamaaDaaaleaacaWGPbaabaGaaGOm aaaakiaacYcaaaa@456E@ where X i N ( 0, σ 2 ) . MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamiwamaaBa aaleaacaWGPbaabeaarqqr1ngBPrgifHhDYfgaiuaakiab=XJi6iaa b6eadaqadaqaaiaaicdacaaISaGaeq4Wdm3aaWbaaSqabeaacaaIYa aaaaGccaGLOaGaayzkaaGaaiOlaaaa@448D@ Assume σ 2 Inverse-Gamma ( α , β ) , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaeq4Wdm3aaW baaSqabeaacaaIYaaaaebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaGqbaOGae8hpIOJa aeysaiaab6gacaqG2bGaaeyzaiaabkhacaqGZbGaaeyzaiaab2caca qGhbGaaeyyaiaab2gacaqGTbGaaeyyamaabmaabaGaeqySdeMaaGil aiaaysW7cqaHYoGyaiaawIcacaGLPaaacaGGSaaaaa@515F@ where E [ σ 2 ] : = v = β ( α 1 ) 1 . MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamyramaadm aabaGaeq4Wdm3aaWbaaSqabeaacaaIYaaaaaGccaGLBbGaayzxaaGa aGOoaiaai2dacaWG2bGaaGypaiabek7aInaabmaabaGaeqySdeMaey OeI0IaaGymaaGaayjkaiaawMcaamaaCaaaleqabaGaeyOeI0IaaGym aaaakiaaygW7caGGUaaaaa@48EC@ Then,

E [ σ 2 | S 2 ] = 2 ( α 1 ) v n + 2 ( α 1 ) + n S 2 n + 2 ( α 1 ) . MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamyramaadm aabaWaaqGaaeaacqaHdpWCdaahaaWcbeqaaiaaikdaaaGccaaMc8oa caGLiWoacaaMc8Uaam4uamaaCaaaleqabaGaaGOmaaaaaOGaay5wai aaw2faaiaai2dadaWcaaqaaiaaikdadaqadaqaaiabeg7aHjabgkHi TiaaigdaaiaawIcacaGLPaaacaWG2baabaGaamOBaiabgUcaRiaaik dadaqadaqaaiabeg7aHjabgkHiTiaaigdaaiaawIcacaGLPaaaaaGa ey4kaSYaaSaaaeaacaWGUbGaam4uamaaCaaaleqabaGaaGOmaaaaaO qaaiaad6gacqGHRaWkcaaIYaWaaeWaaeaacqaHXoqycqGHsislcaaI XaaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaaaiaai6caaaa@5C11@

In application to estimation of county-level cash rental rates, S i k 10 2 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaam4uamaaDa aaleaacaWGPbGaam4AaiaaigdacaaIWaaabaGaaGOmaaaaaaa@3AB5@ plays the role of S 2 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaam4uamaaCa aaleqabaGaaGOmaaaaaaa@3762@ and S p k 10 2 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaam4uamaaDa aaleaacaWGWbGaam4AaiaaigdacaaIWaaabaGaaGOmaaaaaaa@3ABC@ plays the role of v . MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamODaiaac6 caaaa@374E@ Taking α = 1 .5 MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaeqySdeMaaG ypaiaabgdacaqGUaGaaeynaaaa@3A24@ gives the desired multiplier.

Appendix C

Data simulation from the posterior distributions

Consider the posterior samples for β 09 , β 10 , Σ ν ν MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaCOSdmaaBa aaleaacaaIWaGaaGyoaaqabaGccaaMb8UaaGilaiaaysW7caWHYoWa aSbaaSqaaiaaigdacaaIWaaabeaakiaaygW7caaISaGaaGjbVlaaho 6adaWgaaWcbaGaeqyVd4MaeqyVd4gabeaaaaa@47E0@ and Σ e e , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaC4OdmaaBa aaleaacaWGLbGaamyzaaqabaGccaaMb8Uaaiilaaaa@3B13@ denoted by β 09 s , β 10 s , Σ ν ν s MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaCOSdmaaDa aaleaacaaIWaGaaGyoaaqaaiaadohaaaGccaaMb8UaaGilaiaaysW7 caWHYoWaa0baaSqaaiaaigdacaaIWaaabaGaam4CaaaakiaaygW7ca GGSaGaaGjbVlaaho6adaqhaaWcbaGaeqyVd4MaeqyVd4gabaGaam4C aaaaaaa@4AC5@ and Σ e e s , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaC4OdmaaDa aaleaacaWGLbGaamyzaaqaaiaadohaaaGccaGGSaaaaa@3A83@ respectively, for s = 1, , S . MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaam4Caiaai2 dacaaIXaGaaGilaiaaysW7cqWIMaYscaaISaGaaGjbVlaadofacaGG Uaaaaa@3F4D@ Define

Σ e e i j s : = D w i j 0 .5 Σ e e s D w i j 0 .5 , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaaC4OdmaaDa aaleaacaWGLbGaamyzaiaadMgacaWGQbaabaGaam4CaaaakiaaiQda caaI9aGaaCiramaaDaaaleaacaWG3bGaamyAaiaadQgaaeaacqGHsi slcaqGWaGaaeOlaiaabwdaaaGccaWHJoWaa0baaSqaaiaadwgacaWG LbaabaGaam4CaaaakiaahseadaqhaaWcbaGaam4DaiaadMgacaWGQb aabaGaeyOeI0Iaaeimaiaab6cacaqG1aaaaOGaaGilaaaa@4FEE@

for s = 1, , S . MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaam4Caiaai2 dacaaIXaGaaGilaiaaysW7cqWIMaYscaGGSaGaaGjbVlaadofacaGG Uaaaaa@3F47@ Draw replicates ν i 09 r , ν i 10 r , y i j 09 r MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaeqyVd42aa0 baaSqaaiaadMgacaaIWaGaaGyoaaqaaiaadkhaaaGccaaMb8UaaGil aiaaysW7cqaH9oGBdaqhaaWcbaGaamyAaiaaigdacaaIWaaabaGaam OCaaaakiaaygW7caaISaGaaGjbVlaadMhadaqhaaWcbaGaamyAaiaa dQgacaaIWaGaaGyoaaqaaiaadkhaaaaaaa@4D51@ and y i j 10 r , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamyEamaaDa aaleaacaWGPbGaamOAaiaaigdacaaIWaaabaGaamOCaaaakiaacYca aaa@3BCF@ for r = 1, , R , MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqr=epu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamOCaiaai2 dacaaIXaGaaGilaiaaysW7cqWIMaYscaGGSaGaaGjbVlaadkfacaGG Saaaaa@3F43@ following model (1-3) and properties of the multivariate conditional normal distribution as follows:

ν i 09 r N ( 0 , Σ ν ν , ( 11 ) r ) ν i 10 r N ( ( Σ ν ν , ( 11 ) r ) 1 Σ ν ν , ( 12 ) r ν i 09 r , ( Σ ν ν , ( 11 ) r ) 1 Σ ν ν , ( 11 ) r Σ ν ν , ( 22 ) r ( Σ ν ν , ( 12 ) r ) 2 ) , μ i 09 r = x i j 09 β 09 r , y i j 09 r N ( μ i 09 r + ν i 09 r , Σ e e i j , ( 11 ) r ) μ i 10 r = x i j 10 β 10 r , y i j 10 r N ( μ i 10 r + ν i 10 r + ( Σ e e i j , ( 11 ) r ) 1 Σ e e i j , ( 12 ) r ( y i j 09 r μ i 09 r ν i 09 r ) , ( Σ e e i j , ( 11 ) r ) 1 ( Σ e e i j , ( 11 ) r Σ e e i j , ( 22 ) r ( Σ e e i j , ( 12 ) r ) 2 ) . MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrpgpu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaqbaeaabCGaaa aabaGaeqyVd42aa0baaSqaaiaadMgacaaIWaGaaGyoaaqaaiaadkha aaaakeaarqqr1ngBPrgifHhDYfgaiuaacqWF8iIocaWGobWaaeWaae aacaWHWaGaaGilaiaaysW7caWHJoWaa0baaSqaaiabe27aUjabe27a UjaaygW7caaISaGaaGPaVpaabmaabaGaaGymaiaaigdaaiaawIcaca GLPaaaaeaacaWGYbaaaaGccaGLOaGaayzkaaaabaGaeqyVd42aa0ba aSqaaiaadMgacaaIXaGaaGimaaqaaiaadkhaaaaakeaacqWF8iIoca WGobWaaeWaaeaadaqadaqaaiaaho6adaqhaaWcbaGaeqyVd4MaeqyV d4MaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMc8+aaeWaaeaacaaIXaGaaGymaaGaayjkai aawMcaaaqaaiaadkhaaaaakiaawIcacaGLPaaadaahaaWcbeqaaiab gkHiTiaaigdaaaGccaWHJoWaa0baaSqaaiabe27aUjabe27aUjaayg W7caaISaGaaGPaVpaabmaabaGaaGymaiaaikdaaiaawIcacaGLPaaa aeaacaWGYbaaaOGaeqyVd42aa0baaSqaaiaadMgacaaIWaGaaGyoaa qaaiaadkhaaaGccaaISaGaaGjbVpaabmaabaGaaC4OdmaaDaaaleaa cqaH9oGBcqaH9oGBcaaMb8UaaGilaiaaykW7daqadaqaaiaaigdaca aIXaaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaabaGaamOCaaaaaOGaayjkaiaawMcaamaa CaaaleqabaGaeyOeI0IaaGymaaaakiaaho6adaqhaaWcbaGaeqyVd4 MaeqyVd4MaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMc8+aaeWaaeaacaaIXaGaaGymaaGa ayjkaiaawMcaaaqaaiaadkhaaaGccaaMc8UaaC4OdmaaDaaaleaacq aH9oGBcqaH9oGBcaaMb8UaaGilaiaaykW7daqadaqaaiaaikdacaaI YaaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaabaGaamOCaaaakiabgkHiTmaabmaabaGaaC 4OdmaaDaaaleaacqaH9oGBcqaH9oGBcaaMb8UaaGilaiaaykW7daqa daqaaiaaigdacaaIYaaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaabaGaamOCaaaaaOGaay jkaiaawMcaamaaCaaaleqabaGaaGOmaaaaaOGaayjkaiaawMcaaiaa iYcaaeaacqaH8oqBdaqhaaWcbaGaamyAaiaaicdacaaI5aaabaGaam OCaaaaaOqaaiabg2da9iaahIhadaqhaaWcbaGaamyAaiaadQgacaaI WaGaaGyoaaqaaKqzGfGamai2gkdiIcaakiaahk7adaqhaaWcbaGaaG imaiaaiMdaaeaacaWGYbaaaOGaaGilaaqaaiaadMhadaqhaaWcbaGa amyAaiaadQgacaaIWaGaaGyoaaqaaiaadkhaaaaakeaacqWF8iIoca WGobWaaeWaaeaacqaH8oqBdaqhaaWcbaGaamyAaiaaicdacaaI5aaa baGaamOCaaaakiabgUcaRiabe27aUnaaDaaaleaacaWGPbGaaGimai aaiMdaaeaacaWGYbaaaOGaaGilaiaaysW7caWHJoWaa0baaSqaaiaa dwgacaWGLbGaamyAaiaadQgacaaMb8UaaGilaiaaykW7daqadaqaai aaigdacaaIXaaacaGLOaGaayzkaaaabaGaamOCaaaaaOGaayjkaiaa wMcaaaqaaiabeY7aTnaaDaaaleaacaWGPbGaaGymaiaaicdaaeaaca WGYbaaaaGcbaGaeyypa0JaaCiEamaaDaaaleaacaWGPbGaamOAaiaa igdacaaIWaaabaqcLbwacWaGyBOmGikaaOGaaCOSdmaaDaaaleaaca aIXaGaaGimaaqaaiaadkhaaaGccaaISaaabaGaamyEamaaDaaaleaa caWGPbGaamOAaiaaigdacaaIWaaabaGaamOCaaaaaOqaaiab=XJi6i aad6eadaqabaqaaiabeY7aTnaaDaaaleaacaWGPbGaaGymaiaaicda aeaacaWGYbaaaOGaey4kaSIaeqyVd42aa0baaSqaaiaadMgacaaIXa GaaGimaaqaaiaadkhaaaGccqGHRaWkdaqadaqaaiaaho6adaqhaaWc baGaamyzaiaadwgacaWGPbGaamOAaiaaygW7caaISaGaaGPaVpaabm aabaGaaGymaiaaigdaaiaawIcacaGLPaaaaeaacaWGYbaaaaGccaGL OaGaayzkaaWaaWbaaSqabeaacqGHsislcaaIXaaaaOGaaC4OdmaaDa aaleaacaWGLbGaamyzaiaadMgacaWGQbGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMc8+a aeWaaeaacaaIXaGaaGOmaaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaqaaiaadkhaaaGcda qadaqaaiaadMhadaqhaaWcbaGaamyAaiaadQgacaaIWaGaaGyoaaqa aiaadkhaaaGccqGHsislcqaH8oqBdaqhaaWcbaGaamyAaiaaicdaca aI5aaabaGaamOCaaaakiabgkHiTiabe27aUnaaDaaaleaacaWGPbGa aGimaiaaiMdaaeaacaWGYbaaaaGccaGLOaGaayzkaaGaaGilaaGaay jkaaaabaaabaGaaGzbVlaaywW7caaMf8UaaGzbVlaaywW7caaMf8Ua aGzbVlaaywW7caaMf8UaaGzbVpaabmaabaGaaC4OdmaaDaaaleaaca WGLbGaamyzaiaadMgacaWGQbGaaGzaVlaaiYcacaaMc8+aaeWaaeaa caaIXaGaaGymaaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaqaaiaadkhaaaaakiaawIcaca GLPaaadaahaaWcbeqaaiabgkHiTiaaigdaaaGcdaqadaqaaiaaho6a daqhaaWcbaGaamyzaiaadwgacaWGPbGaamOAaiaaygW7caaISaGaaG PaVpaabmaabaGaaGymaiaaigdaaiaawIcacaGLPaaaaeaacaWGYbaa aOGaaC4OdmaaDaaaleaacaWGLbGaamyzaiaadMgacaWGQbGaaGzaVl aaiYcacaaMc8+aaeWaaeaacaaIYaGaaGOmaaGaayjkaiaawMcaaaqa aiaadkhaaaGccqGHsisldaqadaqaaiaaho6adaqhaaWcbaGaamyzai aadwgacaWGPbGaamOAaiaaygW7caaISaGaaGPaVpaabmaabaGaaGym aiaaikdaaiaawIcacaGLPaaaaeaacaWGYbaaaaGccaGLOaGaayzkaa WaaWbaaSqabeaacaaIYaaaaaGccaGLOaGaayzkaaGaaiOlaaaaaaa@96E4@

Although the number of posterior samples is S = MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrpgpu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaam4uaiaai2 daaaa@3745@ 20,000, we construct R = MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrpgpu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamOuaiaai2 daaaa@3744@ 1,901 replicates, where r MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrpgpu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamOCaaaa@369D@ is selected from the sequence 1,000 to T MathType@MTEF@5@5@+= feaagKart1ev2aqatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXatLxBI9gBaerbd9wDYLwzYbItLDharqqtubsr 4rNCHbGeaGqiFu0Je9sqqrpepC0xbbL8F4rqqrpgpu0dc9LqFf0xc9 qqpeuf0xe9q8qiYRWFGCk9vi=dbbf9v8Gq0db9qqpm0dXdIqpq0=vr 0=vr0=edbaqaaeGaciGaaiaabeqaamaabaabaaGcbaGaamivaaaa@367F@ by skipping every 10 samples.

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