Demographic Documents
Exploring the use of Canada Border Services Agency’s Entry and Exit Data for Demographics Estimates
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Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge the valuable contributions of several colleagues to this project. We are especially grateful to Martin St-Pierre, Martin Provost, Kathryn Spence, Eric Mongrain, Nicolas Bastien, Athanase Barayandema, Éric Caron-Malenfant, Patrick Charbonneau, Jacob Doering and Laurent Martel for their insightful feedback on early versions of this document.
We are also grateful for our ongoing partnership with Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada and Canada Border Services Agency, which greatly contributed to this project.
Highlights
- In 2024, Statistics Canada acquired Entry/Exit data from CBSA with the goal of using these data to improve the measurement of international migration in the context of the Demographic Estimates Program.
- Entry/Exit data are not collected for the purposes of computing demographic statistics. Consequently, it has some constraints and limitations for demographic estimates, such as lack of immigration status.
- However, the three case studies presented in this document suggest that Entry/Exit data have potential to refine Statistics Canada's measurement of international migration.
- Work will continue for several key projects to harness the full potential of Entry/Exit data for demographic estimates and other programs at Statistics Canada.
Introduction
Having reliable, timely, and relevant migration statistics is crucial for measuring population change as part of demographic estimates, both as an input for many statistical programs and for informing effective policy decisions, especially in a context of changing demographic trends.
As Canada does not currently maintain a population register, statistics on emigration, returning emigration, and non-permanent residents (NPR) leaving the country cannot be directly estimated, and are calculated using alternative data sources, such as tax data, and demographic models (Statistics Canada, 2025).
In the summer of 2024, Statistics Canada started receiving Entry/Exit (E/E) data from the Canada Border Services Agency (CBSA). These data track entries and exits from Canada by land and air to ensure the availability of complete travel history information.Note E/E data have potential to refine the measurement of international migrationNote in the context of the Demographic Estimates Program (DEP).
Given the legislative and widespread uses of demographic estimates, any methodological change must be implemented through an official process that includes rigorous evaluation of data and results, as well as efficient communication with key stakeholders, notably from the provincial and territorial statistical partners of the DEP.
In that spirit, the goal of this report is to share preliminary results of the first analyses done using E/E data. This report will provide an overview of the data acquired (Section 1), describe three case studies related to potential enhancement of the Demographic Estimate Program (DEP) (Section 2), and discuss other current and future projects with the E/E data at Statistics Canada (Section 3).
The work presented in this document are part of DEP initiatives to ensure the ongoing quality of demographic statistics, in the context of constantly evolving demographic trends (Ongoing work on international migration statistics at Statistics Canada).
1. Entry/Exit Program data
The CBSA’s Entry/Exit (E/E) program was established in 2021 for the Agency to collect more complete, accurate, and reliable travel history information for persons entering and departing Canada, enabling the Agency to “close the loop” on travellers’ movements into and out of the country (CBSA, 2025). Statistics Canada has been working with CBSA to acquire, understand and evaluate the E/E data for the purpose of calculating demographic estimates.
1.1 Overview of Entry/Exit data
Border crossing data from CBSA includes entry and exit data by commercial air and land (cars, trucks, buses and pedestrians) modes. The CBSA collects travellers’ entry information and receives exit information from commercial air carriers in the air mode and from the United States Customs and Border Protection in the land modes.
Data from January 1, 2021, are available to Statistics Canada. From a CBSA assessment, “By 2022-23, the E/E program had achieved its compliance target for carriers’ provision of required data on international flights departing from Canada” with 97% of post-departure air exit information received from air carriers within the regulated timelines for all international flights departing from Canada (CBSA, 2025). Thus, the 2021 data should be used with caution. Daily E/E files are shared with Statistics Canada within days of collection, making it a very timely source of information.
Most entries by marine, rail, or private aircraft are not covered by the data received by Statistic Canada, although captured by CBSA. Exits by marine, rail, or private aircraft have limited to no coverage. According to CBSA national statistics, marine and rail modes accounted for 4% of the travellers in 2025.Note
One record per border crossing is included in the dataset. The data includes information related to the date and time of the border crossing, point of entry or exit, travel document type (e.g. passport, NEXUS card,Note Canadian Permanent Residence Card) and citizenship associated to travel document, type of border crossing (entry or exit), and the purpose of the trip (e.g. personal, study, immigrate).
Travellers are assigned a unique traveller identification number. Between January 1, 2021 and June 30, 2025, there are over 76.2 million unique traveller identification numbers (TRAV_ID). Approximately one out of three E/E are associated to a Canadian citizenship.
| Travel Document Citizenship | TRAV_ID | |
|---|---|---|
| number | percent | |
|
||
| Canadian only | 25,476,300 | 33.4 |
| Canadian and non-American Table 1 Note 1 | 504,600 | 0.7 |
| Canadian and American | 324,700 | 0.4 |
| Canadian, American and other | 29,100 | 0.0 |
| Non-Canadian and non-American Table 1 Note 1 | 22,719,900 | 29.8 |
| American only | 27,136,100 | 35.6 |
| American and non-Canadian | 105,100 | 0.1 |
| Total | 76,295,800 | 100.0 |
1.2 Constraints and Limitations
E/E data, available for border crossings since 2021, is not collected for the purposes of computing demographic statistics. Consequently, it has some constraints and limitations for this use. This section discusses some of these limitations, which must be thoroughly evaluated and considered before any use within the DEP.
1.2.1 Missing data
About 1.7% of daily records have missing information, which could include missing unique traveller identification number (TRAV_ID). Between January 1, 2021 and January 30, 2025, over 12.6 million border crossings were not associated to a TRAV_ID. These are mainly related to Canadian (61.2%) and American (27.6%) citizens, and are likely related to the processing of NEXUS travellers in the land mode, as they use a different system per a CBSA evaluation report.Note
1.2.2 Multiple unique traveller identification numbers
Each traveller is assigned a unique TRAV_ID. However, a given traveller might have multiple TRAV_ID, especially travellers with travel documents associated to multiple countries of citizenship (e.g. dual citizenship), those who renewed their travel documents or frequent flyers. Spelling errors may also result in the creation of a new TRAV_ID for a given individual. Preliminary assessments of border crossings from January 1, 2021 to June 30, 2025 indicate that about 1.8 million travellers have more than one TRAV_ID.
The difference between the number of entries and exits associated to a given TRAV_ID indicates that some exits or entries are available through a different TRAV_ID or record with a missing TRAV_ID. For any given traveller, the number of entries and exits should be the same or have a maximum difference of 1. However, about 7% of the TRAV_ID seem to be missing a border crossing as the difference between entries and exits is greater than 1 (Table 2). For example, 7,100 TRAV_IDs have over 100 more exits than entries associated to them while 13,400 TRAV_IDs have over 100 more entries than exits.
| Differences between the number of entries and exits | Overall | Canadians Table 2 Note 1 | Americans Table 2 Note 1 | Non-Canadian/Non-American Table 2 Note 2 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| number | percent | number | percent | number | percent | number | percent | |
Source: Canada Border Services Agency, Entry and Exit data. |
||||||||
| Over 100 more exits than entries | 7,100 | 0.0 | 3,600 | 0.0 | 2,400 | 0.0 | 2,900 | 0.0 |
| 10 to 99 more exits than entries | 111,600 | 0.1 | 51,000 | 0.2 | 47,300 | 0.2 | 27,900 | 0.1 |
| 2 to 9 more exits than entries | 2,529,100 | 3.3 | 442,500 | 1.7 | 1,197,600 | 4.3 | 953,400 | 4.1 |
| Difference between entries and exits less than 2 | 71,131,500 | 93.2 | 24,400,700 | 92.7 | 25,775,100 | 93.4 | 21,602,800 | 92.5 |
| 2 to 9 more entries than exits | 2,372,800 | 3.1 | 1,331,800 | 5.1 | 523,000 | 1.9 | 731,000 | 3.1 |
| 10 to 99 more entries than exits | 130,400 | 0.2 | 95,600 | 0.4 | 44,400 | 0.2 | 34,700 | 0.1 |
| Over 100 more entries than exits | 13,400 | 0.0 | 9,600 | 0.0 | 5,100 | 0.0 | 5,900 | 0.0 |
| Total | 76,295,900 | 100.0 | 26,334,800 | 100.0 | 27,594,900 | 100.0 | 23,358,700 | 100.0 |
1.2.3 Non availability of residential and immigrant status
The DEP estimates the number of international migrants (emigrants, returning emigrants, immigrants and NPRs). Note To that end, it is very important to be able to identify migrants from travellers, such as tourists, in E/E data. This data allows the calculation of the time spent in Canada and abroad since 2021, and includes citizenship associated to travel document used to cross the border. However, E/E data does not provide information about residence status in Canada and abroad; therefore, migrants cannot be directly identified. For example, to determine travellers’ immigration status, a record linkage to Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada’s (IRCC) immigration data is required (see section 3.1).
The United Nations recommends considering duration of stay abroad and in the country to determine residential and immigration status (United Nations, 2025). Future work could be done to explore the possibility of using the concept of duration of stay in the DEP.
1.2.4 Data content
The ability to identify migrants is crucial for the DEP. However, E/E data is not limited to tourists and migrants, but the data also includes E/E from individuals in industries requiring many border crossings. For example, border agents, truck drivers and cabin crews, are in the file and not easily identifiable.
Ideally, the variable “Travel Purpose” could help identify emigrants, international students and other types of migrants, but in practice, it does not provide enough information to identify all trips related to migrations or tourism; “Personal” is often listed as trip purpose. As a result, record linkage to immigration data from IRCC is required to identify the different type of migrants. Further work is required to identify emigrants and returning emigrants in E/E data.
Despite CBSA working on eliminating duplicates, a small proportion of the records are duplicates. Through record linkage it is possible to identify some of these duplicates.
2. Demonstration of analytical capacity
Despite the limitations mentioned previously, E/E data have potential to further enhance Statistics Canada’s emigration, returning emigration, and NPR estimates. This section includes three case studies on NPRs using E/E data. They are examples of the evaluation work that needs to be completed before leveraging E/E data to produce demographic estimates. The results of these case studies should not be used to produce estimates.
The first two case studies focus on work permit holders and study permit holders whose permits became effective in 2022 and, according to E/E data, entered Canada on the effective date of the permit. Note ,Note ,Note It is to be noted that visitor visa or visitor record holders are not considered in the first two case studies as they are not in the census and demographic estimates target population (Statistics Canada, 2025). The third case study only includes the subpopulation of study permit holders.
The permit holders’ data were obtained from IRCC and were linked deterministically to E/E data by matching a person’s full name and date of birth. In addition, the effective (start) date of the permit was matched to the entry date on E/E data to form a successful linkage. Before the linkage, 857,700 individuals had work permits and 548,200 individuals had study permits with an effective date in 2022. With the criteria mentioned, the linkage rate was 47.6% for work permit holders and 64.3% for study permit holders. The following results are for the 408,300 work permit holders and the 352,400 study permit holders who were linked to their E/E data.
For permit holders who were linked successfully, their E/E data information from January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2025 were extracted.
2.2.1 Study 1: Continuing the stay in Canada by type of next document
Before the expiration of their workNote or studyNote permit, permit holders can apply for an extension of their stay. While IRCC processes their applications, they are on maintained status and are legally allowed to remain in Canada. The processing timeNote varies by permit type. For example, on October 1, 2025, the processing time was 196 days for a work permit (initial and extension) inside Canada and 171 days for a study permit extension.
For permit holders whose permit has expired and subsequently obtained a permit extension, the DEP assumes they stay in Canada during the interim period. The first case study aims to evaluate the validity of this assumption using E/E data.
This analysis includes study and work permit holders who obtained a subsequent document (a permit extension,Note a new work or study permit, an asylum claim, a temporary resident permit, or permanent residency) after the last study or work permit expired. It examines the percentage of work permit holders and study permit holders remaining in Canada between the expiry date of the last permit and the effective date of the next document (hereinafter “gap period”). Data from January 1, 2022 to January 1, 2025 were used. Permit holders who subsequently obtained a permit that was not an extension (a new work or study permit, a temporary resident permit, or permanent residency) or made an asylum claim are used as a comparison group to help contextualize the findings for those who obtained a subsequent extension permit.
Data table for Chart 1
| Difference in days between expiry date of last permit and effective date of next document | Work permit holders, next document is an extension | Work permit holders, next document is not an extension | Study permit holders, next document is an extension | Study permit holders, next document is not an extension |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| percent | ||||
| Sources: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, Immigration data and Canada Border Services Agency, Entry and Exit data. | ||||
| 1 to 30 days | 96.7 | 25.4 | 97.7 | 55.0 |
| 31 to 60 days | 95.5 | 19.7 | 96.8 | 45.5 |
| 61 to 90 days | 94.4 | 11.1 | 95.7 | 52.0 |
| 91 to 120 days | 93.4 | 6.1 | 94.8 | 49.6 |
| 121 to 150 days | 92.8 | 4.2 | 93.3 | 43.2 |
| 151 to 180 days | 90.2 | 4.0 | 90.2 | 38.0 |
| 181 to 270 days | 88.0 | 3.7 | 87.3 | 43.1 |
| 271 to 365 days | 82.8 | 5.4 | 77.0 | 38.4 |
| More than 365 days | 71.2 | 8.0 | 68.5 | 35.5 |
Work permit holders
Out of the 408,300 work permit holders in this study, 117,300 individuals obtained a subsequent document after the expiration of their permit.
Among the 72,000 work permit holders (with 78,800 permitsNote ) of the 2022 cohort whose next document was a permit extension, approximately 50% of them obtained an extension within 80 days of their previous permit’s expiry, and 80% obtained an extension within 132 days. The longer the gap period, the lower the likelihood of staying in Canada during the entire gap period. When the permit extension became effective within 30 days of the last permit’s expiry, a large proportion (96.7%) of the NPRs remained in Canada during the entire gap period (Chart 1). The proportion gradually decreased to 90.2% when the gap period was between 151 and 180 days, and to 71.2% when the permit extension became effective more than one year after the last permit was expired.
In contrast, among the 45,300 work permit holders (with 67,200 permits) whose next document was not a permit extension or an asylum claim, a smaller proportion remained in Canada during the entire gap period. For example, 25.4% stayed in Canada when the next document was effective within 30 days after the expiry date of the last permit. The propensity to stay decreased steadily until the gap period reached 181 to 270 days (3.7%), followed by an increase for those with more than 365 days between permits (8.0%).
Study permit holders
Out of the 352,400 study permit holders in this study, 80,400 individuals obtained a subsequent document after the expiration of their permit.
In this case study, study permit holders obtained permit extension more quickly than work permit holders. About 50% of the extension permits were received within 43 days of last permit’s expiry, and 80% were within 100 days. Similar to work permit holders, the percentage of those staying in Canada during the entire gap period was higher among the 71,600 study permit holders (with 79,400 permits) whose next document was a permit extension, compared to the 8,800 of those (with 9,000 permits) whose next document was not a permit extension. For example, when the next document became effective within 30 days after the previous permit’s expiry date, 97.7% of study permit holders remained in Canada if the next document was a permit extension, compared to 55.0% if the permit holders subsequently obtained a permit that is not an extension or made an asylum claim.
Among individuals whose next document was not a permit extension, the proportion of those who stayed during the gap period was higher for study permit holders than for work permit holders. For work permit holders, the proportion of those who stayed ranged from 3.6% to 25.4%, whereas for study permit holders, the proportion varied from 35.5% to 55.0%. A further breakdown by the type of next document indicated that most individuals who remained in Canada had subsequently obtained permanent residence or submitted asylum claims – both of which were associated with higher levels of staying among study permit holders when compared to work permit holders. This contributes to the overall higher proportion of staying observed among study permit holders.
Overall, individuals in the study who had a subsequent permit extension were more likely to stay during the gap period than those who had a permit that was not an extension or made an asylum claim. This may be explained by the condition of the maintained status for extension permits. To maintain status, individuals must remain in Canada to continue working or studying. If they leave Canada and return, they cannot workNote or studyNote until IRCC issued a new permit. The results of this analysis indicate that the DEP methodology to account for permit extensions is reliable regardless of processing times.
2.2.2 Study 2: Timing of departure among work and study permit holders
Statistics Canada assumes that permit holders leave the country at the end of their permit unless they obtain a permit extension, make an asylum claim or become permanent residents. The purpose of the second case study is to assess the possibility of using E/E data to estimate the number of foreign workers and international students from the 2022 cohort who left Canada before the expiry date of their permit. The results of the case study are based on an individual’s permit status and their exit pattern as of January 1, 2025. This case study is limited to linked permit holders who have left Canada.
Data table for Chart 2
| Work permit holders in International Mobility Program | Work permit holders in Seasonal Agricultural Worker Program | Work permit holders in Temporary Foreign Worker Program, other | Study permit holders | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| percent | ||||
| Sources: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, Immigration data and Canada Border Services Agency, Entry and Exit data. | ||||
| Left Canada before expiration of permit | ||||
| More than 365 days | 15.0 | 0.2 | 13.6 | 9.7 |
| 181 to 365 days | 18.1 | 3.0 | 10.8 | 12.5 |
| 91 to 180 days | 13.1 | 14.1 | 13.0 | 33.7 |
| 31 to 90 days | 13.3 | 51.9 | 24.1 | 19.6 |
| 0 to 30 days | 18.8 | 26.3 | 25.2 | 8.8 |
| Left Canada after expiration of permit | ||||
| 1 to 30 days | 5.9 | 1.5 | 3.7 | 2.5 |
| 31 to 90 days | 4.2 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 2.8 |
| 91 to 180 days | 3.8 | 0.2 | 2.3 | 3.2 |
| 181 to 365 days | 4.0 | 1.5 | 2.8 | 4.1 |
| More than 365 days | 3.8 | 1.2 | 2.4 | 3.1 |
Work permit holders
For the purposes of this analysis, work permits are divided into three groups:
- International Mobility Program (IMP);
- Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP) excluding Seasonal Agricultural Worker Program; and
- Seasonal Agricultural Worker Program (SAWP).
IMPNote and TFWPNote are the two primary categories of work permits in Canada, and have distinct purposes and requirements.Note An important distinction between the two temporary worker programs is that in addition to employer-specific permits, IMP provides open work permits, meaning temporary foreign workers are not tied to one company or job. Among IMP work permit holders whose permits became effective in 2022, 84% were open work permits while 16% were employer-specific. Meanwhile, all work permits issued under TFWP were employer-specific. Under TFWP, SAWPNote is a stream that focuses on seasonal agricultural labour needs. Workers under SAWP can stay for a maximum of eight months between January 1 and December 15. They cannot extend their SAWP permit, but may return to Canada the next year through a new SAWP permit. Given the nature of the SAWP, this subgroup of TFWP permit holders are considered as the third group.
As Chart 2 shows, among the 79,660 work permit holders in the 2022 cohort whose permit expired and who left Canada as of January 1, 2025, the majority (82.8%) left before their permit expired. This proportion was 78.4% for IMP permit holders, 95.5% for TFWP permit holders in the SAWP stream, and 86.6% for other TFWP permit holders.
For work permit holders who left before their permit expired, the timing of their leaving differed by program. IMP work permit holders were more likely to leave earlier than TFWP work permit holders. In comparison, TFWP worker permit holders were more likely to leave Canada closer to the expiry date. Among work permit holders who left Canada, 32.2% of IMP work permit holders exited within 90 days prior to permit expiry. The proportion was 78.2% for SAWP work permit holders and 49.2% for other TFWP work permit holders.
One possible reason for the variation in timing of leaving Canada is the flexibility of the permit type. The flexible criteria of open work permits allow the majority of IMP work permit holders to change job and work location. Conversely, TFWP work permit holders are more likely to have an employment contract, which may be related to leaving Canada near the contract or permit end date. The peak time of leaving for SAWP work permit holders was 31 to 90 days before the permit expiry date. This can be explained by the interplay of the permit expiry date and agricultural season. Although most SAWP work permits ended on December 15, many workers left Canada between September and November as the growing season came to an end, which was about 31 to 90 days prior to December 15.
Study permit holders
Among the 40,620 study permit holders in the 2022 cohort whose permit expired and left Canada as of January 2025, 84.3% left before the permit expiry date. The most prevalent timing was 91 to 180 days prior to the expiry date, with 33.7% of study permit holders leaving during that period. This may be associated with the length of the study permit, which is usually valid for the study period plus an additional 90 days.Note The 90-day period allows study permit holders to prepare to leave or apply for an extension of their stay. The pattern observed in Chart 2 indicates that study permit holders who left Canada were more inclined to leave as soon as they graduated.
Some work permit holders and study permit holders may have applied for a new temporary or permanent status but were refused by IRCC after the last permit was expired.Note This may explain why a small proportion of individuals left Canada after their permit expired. This case study aimed at measuring the time of departure. Further analysis is required to better understand the reasons some individuals leave after the permit expiration as some stay with maintained status or potentially overstay their permit expiry date.
Statistics Canada assumes that permit holders leave the country at the end of their permit unless they extend the permit, make an asylum claim or become permanent residents. These results are informative for the DEP as E/E data could help refine this assumption for NPR departures. They also highlight that the behaviours of NPRs who have left Canada may differ depending on their type of permit.
2.2.3 Study 3: Study permit holders who became visitors
Permit holders can apply for visitor documents while having valid permits. There are two main types of visitor documents. The first one is a visitor visa,Note which allows citizens from visa-required countries to enter Canada as a visitor for up to 6 months. Another type of visitor document is a visitor record,Note which allows work permit holders and study permit holders to extend their stay as visitors after their authorized temporary status expires.
In 2024, the number of applications for a visitor record received by IRCC doubled from 196,965 in 2019 to 389,254 (Keung, 2025). There seems to be an emerging trend of permit holders with expiring permits attempting to extend their stay in the country by applying for visitor records. This case study uses E/E data to validate the observation on former study permit holders.
Chart 3 shows the increase in the number of former study permit holders who remained in Canada with a visitor document, based on E/E data from January 1, 2024 to January 1, 2025.
Data table for Chart 3
| Number | |
|---|---|
| Note: Visitor visa or visitor record issued before the study permit in 2022 and Electronic Travel Authorization (eTA) are excluded from the visitor document in the chart.
Sources: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, Immigration data and Canada Border Services Agency, Entry and Exit data. |
|
| January 1, 2024 | 1,660 |
| April 1, 2024 | 2,787 |
| July 1, 2024 | 3,601 |
| October 1, 2024 | 5,513 |
| January 1, 2025 | 6,321 |
As of January 1, 2024, for individuals who were issued a study permit in 2022, 43,000 people had an expired permit. Among them, 1,700 people remained in Canada with a visitor document after the expiration of their last permit. As of January 1, 2025, the number of students with expired permits increased to 85,200, and the number of them remaining in Canada with a visitor document increased to 6,300. Some former permit holders who remained in Canada as visitors were likely awaiting another permit. Some temporary permit programs grant family members the right to remain in Canada without a permit. It is possible that some of these visitors were family members living with valid permit holders, in which case they were already included in the “other category” of the estimates of NPRs (Statistics Canada, 2025).
This emerging trend raises some questions. The target population for census and demographic estimates includes Canadian citizens, permanent residents (immigrants) and NPRs whose usual place of residenceNote is in Canada (Statistics Canada, 2021). Consequently, visitors who are not family members of permit holders are excluded from demographic statistics. Study permit holders who obtain a visitor visa while applying for a new permit might not be considered as visitors from a demographic standpoint even if that person is generally not allowed to work or studyNote in Canada with a visitor document alone. This would be a similar approach to the methodology used to account for permit extensions who are included in the DEP even without a valid work or study permit on reference date. Future work is required to further understand these populations.
3. Current and Future work
In the previous section, we evaluated how E/E data can inform on permit extensions, departure time of permit holders and presence in the country of NPR acquiring visitor documents. The results of these case studies are not only informative for the DEP, but also for other programs at Statistics Canada. Work is continuing for several key projects. This section outlines some of the initiatives currently underway and highlights the upcoming projects.
3.1 Demographic estimates
Development work will continue to assess the potential of E/E data, process the data, and examine how it can be integrated into demographic estimates for NPRs, emigrants, and returning emigrants.
The identification of NPRs, emigrants, and returning emigrants in E/E data requires a robust linkage with other sources as well as the determination of individuals’ immigration status (non-immigrant, immigrant or NPR) and place of residence, which are not directly available in E/E data.
Naturally, confirming the departure of NPRs, emigrants, and returning emigrants requires a successful match with other data sources. NPRs and immigrants who emigrate can be identified using record linkage with immigration data. However, identifying non-immigrants (such as individuals born in Canada) who emigrate in E/E data poses some additional challenges. Using the travel document type (e.g. Canadian passport) in addition to record linkages might be a solution, at least for people without dual citizenship.Note
It is also important to match as many records as possible to obtain representative results for populations of interest. Statistical models might have to be developed and applied to E/E data to address this issue, for example by predicting the probability that an unlinked individual leaves Canada.
Migration is defined as a change of usual place of residence. As emigration or returning emigration is not a travel purpose found in E/E data, it will need to be derived indirectly. Emigration being a relatively rare event, people in E/E data will have to be divided into migrants and travellers (e.g. an individual going on vacation abroad for two weeks or a tourist visiting Canada for one month) based on the time spent in Canada and abroad. International standards, such as those recommended by the United Nations, and conversations with statistical agencies that have a population register or use border data, such as New Zealand and Australia, could help derive a definition (Australian Bureau of Statistics, 2025; Statistics New Zealand, 2025; United Nations, 2025). This challenge can also impact the measure of NPRs, for example if they leave the country for a short period of time before coming back.
3.2 Census Program
The population estimates from the DEP are calculated using disseminated Census counts adjusted for the Census net undercoverage.
Statistics Canada is exploring the usage of E/E data to support Census certification activities.
E/E data could also be an auxiliary source of information for the Census Undercoverage Study (CUS) by enabling confirmation of departure or entry, facilitating the estimation of residence in Canada on census day (Statistics Canada, 2024). This data may be used in several steps of the CUS such as in the sampling stage (stratification), in the collection non-response adjustment model, to calibrate weights, and even to directly impute the final classification (missed or out-of-scope) of individuals selected in the sample.
Statistics Canada is exploring the expanded use of administrative data in upcoming censuses. E/E data could be integrated into the research undertaken to develop a combined census modelNote and contingency plans based on administrative data for future censuses. More precisely, E/E data could help improving the statistical models being developed to determine the in-scope census population in administrative data.
3.3 Data linkage
Harnessing the full potential of E/E data will require robust record linkage to other data sources. Work is on-going to include E/E data to the Social Data Linkage Environment (SDLE) using probabilistic record linkage.Note
Statistics Canada is also exploring deterministic record linkagesNote of E/E data to IRCC’s immigration data using travellers’ first and last name, date of birth and entry dates. The case studies in this document were realised using exact deterministic record linkage. This technique minimizes false positives but limits the linkage of individuals who entered Canada on a date different from the permit start date and for whom travel document information differs from the immigration data.
Record linkage will enable the identification of departure from the country, among other things.
Conclusion
This document aims at sharing some preliminary results of Statistics Canada’s examination of E/E data for demographic estimates. This report explored three usages of the E/E data: the proportion of permit holders staying in Canada by type of their subsequent document, the timing of departure among permit holders who left Canada, and the proportion of study permit holders who became visitors and remained in Canada.
Initial assessments suggest that E/E data could have good potential to enhance Statistics Canada’s measurement of international migration. However, being administrative data not collected for the purposes of calculating official statistics, harnessing its potential will require additional work, such as doing robust and timely record linkage to other data sources and developing new methods to identify migrants and travellers. It is still too early for Statistics Canada to describe the specific use of CBSA's E/E data in producing the agency's demographic estimates.
Despite its limitations, E/E data is already a valuable source to evaluate some current assumptions in DEP for NPRs. The case studies in this document also highlight emerging realities related to NPRs. Moreover, the use of E/E data could possibly inform on the size of a potential population residing in Canada without a status.
The strategic usage of E/E data could result in further developments for demographic estimates and for several statistical programs at Statistics Canada. The potential implementation of any changes would occur in fall 2028, during the rebasing of the estimates based on the 2026 Census and its coverage studies.
In the meantime, Statistics Canada will continue to report on the progress made with E/E data, for example via the publication of reports and innovative products.
References
Australian Bureau of Statistics (2025). Usual residence standard.
Canada Border Services Agency (2025). Evaluation of the Entry/Exit Program.
Keung, N. (2025, February 27). Record number of people applying to come to Canada to work, study or visit were refused in 2024. Toronto Star.
Statistics Canada (2021). Appendix 1.3 ‒ Information produced from the 2021 Census of Population [Appendix]. In Guide to the Census of Population, 2021. Catalogue no. 98-304-X.
Statistics Canada (2024). Coverage Technical Report, Census of Population, 2021. Catalogue no. 98-303-X.
Statistics Canada (2025). Technical Guide on Demographic Estimates at Statistics Canada. Catalogue no. 91-528-X.
Statistics New Zealand (2025). Migration Data Transformation.
United Nations (2025). Recommendations on Statistics of International Migration and Temporary Mobility.
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