Population Projections for Canada (2018 to 2068), Provinces and Territories (2018 to 2043): Technical Report on Methodology and Assumptions
Chapter 5: Projection of Immigration

Introduction

Creating long-term assumptions about immigration is a particularly difficult task. Unlike other projection components such as fertility and mortality, immigration levels are largely determined by the government of the day. As a result, these levels are subject to change markedly from year to year depending on a variety of factors which influence the political decision-making process. Adding to this challenge is the fact that Canada has made more changes to its immigration policy in recent decades than any other nation aside from France (De Haas et al. 2015). As stated in the technical report accompanying the previous edition of the projections:

Following a period of relative stability in annual admission targets and the immigration rate, in 2017, the federal government announced it would be significantly increasing the level of planned immigration to Canada for the following three years (IRCC 2017d). In 2018, these targets were extended even higher for the years 2019 to 2021 (Figure 5.1) (IRCC 2018a).

Description for Figure 5.1



Data table for Figure 5.1
Number of immigrants, planned (1979 to 2021) and historic (1979 to 2018), Canada
Table summary
This table displays the results of Number of immigrants. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Planned and Historic, calculated using number units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Year	Planned	Historic
	number
1979	100,000 to 101,000	112,096
1980	120,000 to 121,000	143,137
1981	130,000 to 140,000	128,641
1982	130,000 to 135,000	121,175
1983	105,000 to 110,000	89,186
1984	90,000 to 95,000	88,272
1985	85,000 to 90,000	84,347
1986	105,000 to 115,000	99,356
1987	115,000 to 125,000	152,080
1988	125,000 to 135,000	161,587
1989	150,000 to 160,000	191,555
1990	165,000 to 175,000	216,451
1991	220,000 to 221,000	232,809
1992	250,000 to 251,000	254,792
1993	250,000 to 251,000	256,641
1994	250,000 to 251,000	224,385
1995	190,000 to 215,000	212,866
1996	195,000 to 220,000	226,071
1997	195,000 to 220,000	216,035
1998	200,000 to 225,000	174,195
1999	200,000 to 225,000	189,951
2000	200,000 to 225,000	227,455
2001	200,000 to 225,000	250,637
2002	210,000 to 235,000	229,048
2003	220,000 to 245,000	221,349
2004	220,000 to 245,000	235,823
2005	220,000 to 245,000	262,242
2006	225,000 to 255,000	251,641
2007	240,000 to 265,000	236,753
2008	240,000 to 265,000	247,247
2009	240,000 to 265,000	252,172
2010	240,000 to 265,000	280,691
2011	240,000 to 265,000	248,747
2012	240,000 to 265,000	257,896
2013	240,000 to 265,000	259,022
2014	240,000 to 265,000	260,411
2015	260,000 to 285,000	271,845
2016	280,000 to 305,000	296,346
2017	280,000 to 320,000	286,494
2018	290,000 to 330,000	321,126
2019	310,000 to 350,000	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2020	310,000 to 360,000	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2021	320,000 to 370,000	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
.. not available for a specific reference period Source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.

Situated historically, these planned immigration targets represent a marked increase in the annual number, and associated rate, compared to the last 30 years. However, much higher immigration rates were experienced at different points in the 20th century. As recently as the mid-1950s, immigration rates were well over 1% of the population (Figure 5.2).

Description for Figure 5.2



Data table for Figure 5.2
Number of immigrants and immigration rate, Canada, 1852 to 2018
Table summary
This table displays the results of Number of immigrants and immigration rate. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), Number of immigrants and Immigration rate
(per thousand) (appearing as column headers).

Year	Number of immigrants	Immigration rate (per thousand)
1852	29,307	11.6
1853	29,464	11.4
1854	37,263	13.9
1855	25,296	9.2
1856	22,544	8.0
1857	33,854	11.6
1858	12,339	4.1
1859	6,300	2.1
1860	6,276	2.0
1861	13,589	4.2
1862	18,294	5.6
1863	21,000	6.3
1864	24,779	7.4
1865	18,958	5.6
1866	11,427	3.3
1867	10,666	3.0
1868	12,765	3.6
1869	18,630	5.2
1870	24,706	6.8
1871	27,773	7.5
1872	36,578	9.7
1873	50,050	13.1
1874	39,373	10.1
1875	27,382	6.9
1876	25,633	6.4
1877	27,082	6.7
1878	29,807	7.2
1879	40,492	9.7
1880	38,505	9.0
1881	47,991	11.1
1882	112,458	25.7
1883	133,624	30.2
1884	103,824	23.1
1885	79,169	17.4
1886	69,152	15.1
1887	84,526	18.3
1888	88,766	19.0
1889	91,600	19.4
1890	75,067	15.7
1891	82,165	17.0
1892	30,996	6.3
1893	29,633	6.0
1894	20,829	4.2
1895	18,790	3.7
1896	16,835	3.3
1897	21,716	4.2
1898	31,900	6.2
1899	44,543	8.5
1900	41,681	7.9
1901	55,747	10.4
1902	89,102	16.2
1903	138,660	24.5
1904	131,252	22.5
1905	141,465	23.6
1906	211,653	34.7
1907	272,409	42.5
1908	143,326	21.6
1909	173,694	25.5
1910	286,839	41.0
1911	331,288	46.0
1912	375,756	50.9
1913	400,870	52.5
1914	150,484	19.1
1915	36,665	4.6
1916	55,914	7.0
1917	72,910	9.0
1918	41,845	5.1
1919	107,698	13.0
1920	138,824	16.2
1921	91,728	10.4
1922	64,224	7.2
1923	133,729	14.8
1924	124,164	13.6
1925	84,907	9.1
1926	135,082	14.3
1927	158,886	16.5
1928	166,783	17.0
1929	164,993	16.5
1930	104,806	10.3
1931	27,530	2.7
1932	20,591	2.0
1933	14,382	1.4
1934	12,476	1.2
1935	11,277	1.0
1936	11,643	1.1
1937	15,101	1.4
1938	17,244	1.5
1939	16,994	1.5
1940	11,324	1.0
1941	9,329	0.8
1942	7,576	0.7
1943	8,504	0.7
1944	12,801	1.1
1945	22,722	1.9
1946	71,719	5.8
1947	64,127	5.1
1948	125,414	9.8
1949	95,217	7.1
1950	73,912	5.4
1951	194,391	13.9
1952	164,498	11.4
1953	168,868	11.4
1954	154,227	10.1
1955	109,946	7.0
1956	164,857	10.3
1957	282,164	17.0
1958	124,851	7.3
1959	106,928	6.1
1960	104,111	5.8
1961	71,689	3.9
1962	74,586	4.0
1963	93,151	4.9
1964	112,606	5.8
1965	146,758	7.5
1966	194,743	9.7
1967	222,876	10.9
1968	183,974	8.9
1969	161,531	7.7
1970	147,713	6.9
1971	121,900	5.6
1972	122,006	5.5
1973	184,200	8.2
1974	218,465	9.6
1975	187,881	8.1
1976	149,429	6.4
1977	114,914	4.8
1978	86,313	3.6
1979	112,096	4.6
1980	143,498	5.9
1981	128,794	5.2
1982	121,331	4.8
1983	89,377	3.5
1984	88,599	3.5
1985	84,339	3.3
1986	99,343	3.8
1987	152,031	5.7
1988	161,534	6.0
1989	191,516	7.0
1990	216,424	7.8
1991	232,776	8.3
1992	254,856	9.0
1993	256,754	9.0
1994	224,395	7.7
1995	212,875	7.3
1996	226,061	7.6
1997	216,034	7.2
1998	174,184	5.8
1999	189,971	6.2
2000	227,429	7.4
2001	250,638	8.1
2002	229,049	7.3
2003	221,349	7.0
2004	235,824	7.4
2005	262,240	8.1
2006	251,644	7.7
2007	236,754	7.2
2008	247,247	7.4
2009	252,177	7.5
2010	280,682	8.3
2011	248,733	7.2
2012	257,809	7.4
2013	259,038	7.4
2014	260,296	7.3
2015	271,857	7.6
2016	296,405	8.2
2017	286,490	7.8
2018	321,065	8.7
Sources: From 1852 to 1979: Employment and Immigration Canada. 1982. 1980 Immigration Statistics, Immigration and Demographic Policy Group, catalogue no. MP22-1/1980. From 1980 to 2018, Immigrants, Refugees and Citizenship Canada and Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Demographic Estimates Program.

In designing our immigration projection assumptions, we must consider the plausibility of outcomes under both a short-term and a long-term perspective, and attempt to build a range of immigration assumptions that reflect an appropriate level of uncertainty. To build these assumptions, in addition to analyzing recent trends in the level and distribution of immigration by age, sex, region and category of immigration, we conducted a literature review which included:

• Publications and statements from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC);
• Public opinion polls, media coverage and media narratives regarding immigration;
• International reports on immigration (e.g., OECD, United Nations);
• Peer-reviewed journal articles on the impacts and dynamics of immigration and theories of immigration;
• Relevant publications from “think tanks” and other key policy influencers;
• The views of the respondents to the 2018 Survey of Experts on Future Demographic Trends regarding future immigration levels in Canada.

In the remainder of this chapter, arguments in support of an increase versus a stabilization or slight decrease in immigration levels in the future are first explored, followed by a summary of the views of respondents to the 2018 Survey of Experts on Future Demographic Trends. Lastly, the immigration assumptions and associated methodology are described.

Arguments in support of an increase in immigration levels in the future

The current federal government have indicated a desire to increase immigration levels even further beyond the current short-term plans.

In the news release accompanying the announcement of immigration targets for 2018 to 2020, IRCC states “This measured, gradual increase will trend towards one percent of the population by 2020, spurring innovation and representing a major investment in Canada’s prosperity, now and into the future” (IRCC 2017d). Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Minister Ahmed Hussen, in presenting the new immigration targets, called it a historic and responsible plan and "the most ambitious" in recent history (IRCC 2017d; Harris 2017). Previously, 2016 Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Minister John McCallum stated that he hoped to “substantially increase” immigration (Corcoran 2016), though he cautioned that the recent recommendations of the Advisory Council on Economic Growth for 450,000 annual immigrants by 2021 (more on this later) might be too fast-paced of an increase: “We have an aging population, we have labour shortages, but there are also constraints” (Blatchford 2016).

Furthermore, IRCC’s news releases accompanying the most recent immigration plan emphasized repeatedly the fact that immigration levels would be “nearing 1 percent of Canada’s population in 2021” (IRCC 2018b). These developments suggest that an immigration target of 1% of the Canadian population should be considered as a very plausible possibility, at least in the short-to-medium term future.

Key consultants of the current federal government have recommended substantially higher immigration levels in the future.

In 2016, the Advisory Council on Economic Growth was established by the Minister of Finance to “develop advice on concrete policy actions to help create the conditions for strong and sustained long-term economic growth” and to “help inform the Government’s future actions and policies”.^Note  The Advisory Council recently released a report that recommended increasing immigration levels to 450,000 by 2021 in order to counter demographic challenges and grow the economy (Advisory Council on Economic Growth 2016). The Advisory Council support their recommendations using a report from the Conference Board of Canada^Note  which concludes that higher immigration levels—specifically those that would result in a population of 100 million Canadians by 2100—will increase the growth of Canada’s labour force over the long term thus generating higher economic growth as compared to lower immigration projection scenarios (Adès et al. 2016; Alini 2017).

Recent consultations by IRCC have revealed that many key stakeholders working in industries, service and organizations related to immigration are, perhaps not surprisingly, in favour of higher immigration (IRCC 2017c).

There is growing momentum among many Canadian public figures and media to embrace a pro-population growth stance, to be achieved through higher immigration.

The pro-higher-immigration stance of the Advisory Council on Economic Growth and many stakeholders follows a growing momentum in recent years by some national media to highlight editorials and other discussions in support of growing the population to 100 million in 2100 through substantially higher immigration levels (Kirby 2017). Common among these narratives is the view that higher immigration and the resulting larger population is a chance for “national rebirth” (Corcoran 2016); a way to shed the country’s colonial past and its close ties to the United States to become a more impactful world leader. For example, in 2012, the Globe and Mail published a series of editorials in this vein called “The Immigrant Answer”. Included was a piece by Doug Saunders (2012) which recommended a minimum of 400,000 immigrants per year to achieve the goal of 100 million people living in Canada by 2100. He argues that there isn’t a large enough population in Canada to support a minimal level of quality or scope in its various institutions and that cultural development requires a much larger population.^Note 

Saunders’ ideas were echoed by Irvin Studin (2017), President of The Institute for 21st Century Questions,^Note  an organization which recommends increasing immigration levels in Canada for geostrategic and defence reasons. He also argues that in contrast to concerns raised about the environmental impacts of overpopulation, a larger population will lead to far better environmental outcomes for Canada since there will be greater capacity to develop technologies to protect the environment. Corcoran (2016), in a Financial Post editorial, also argued in favour of the Advisory Council on Economic Growth’s recommendation for 100 million people by 2100.

Critics of this “populationist” movement (a term used by Paquet (2017)) note that its proponents do not discuss the potential difficulties—economic, ecological and sociological, capacity-wise—of such a substantial increase in immigration, among other possible consequences.^Note  Numerous critiques of Saunders’ proposal have come from the Canadian demography community (see for example Beaujot and Patterson 2018, Darroch 2018, Miller 2018, Marois 2018, Rees 2018). While they welcome the fact that Mr. Saunders has opened up public discussion of Canada’s population history and future population, they argue that this dialogue about what the future Canadian population should be needs to include voices from a wider range of disciplines and interests, including economists, ecologists, urban planners, health and social scientists, among others. In addition to ecological concerns, these scholars raise concerns about the impacts of such large increases in immigration on various aspects of Canadian life, including the marginalization of rural communities and possible cultural conflicts arising from increased ethnic fragmentation and the associated decrease in the weight of the Quebec and French-speaking populations in Canada (Marois 2018, Darroch 2018).

While it is unknown how much further the idea of population growth through higher immigration will continue to build in momentum, recent trends in this regard suggest that a higher immigration scenario than in recent years must be considered in the realm of possibility.

Public support for immigration is relatively strong in Canada.

Public opinion is an imperative factor in immigration policy (Jones 2016). In Canada, public support for immigration, particularly economic immigrants, is relatively strong in comparison with the United States and Europe (Bloemraad 2012). Bauder (2014) notes that in public debate on the topic, there is an “overarching paradigm” that immigration is a necessary part of Canada’s identity—a sentiment echoed by recent public consultations by IRCC on immigration levels (IRCC 2016). It is generally not questioned by the Canadian public that immigration results in economic benefits, despite the lack of concrete evidence of this fact (Bauder 2014; Bloemraad 2012)). Immigration has become a “normative part of Canadian life” (Jones 2016), especially in the nation’s urban areas, which Bloemraad (2012) views as “remarkable” in how easily they have transitioned to become highly multicultural in a short period of time.

Relatively strong public support for immigration in Canada may also be linked in part to the country’s fairly unique characteristics. With its large landmass, low population density and natural resources, Sachs (2016) sees Canada as an ideal setting for absorbing high immigration levels. Furthermore, Canada’s single border with a developed country, as well as its points system that aims to select immigrants with skills that are in demand for the economy, may explain in part why public support for immigration in Canada continues to be fairly strong, deemed “Canadian exceptionalism” by Bloemraad (2012). Given this, it is possible that public approval for immigration will remain strong even if immigration levels increase substantially. Indeed, to date, there has been no strong public opposition to the proposed increases to immigration levels made by IRCC in recent years.

Pressure to admit a greater number of refugees could increase in the future.

Canada has been identified as a world leader and pioneer in terms of resettlement of refugees (OECD 2016a). As the number of refugees worldwide increases^Note —and may continue to increase further in the future due to demographic disparities and climate change, among other factors (Sachs 2016; McGrath 2017; Missirian and Schlenker 2017)—there could be greater pressures directed toward Canada to increase its humanitarian immigration in the future. In fact, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees recently asked the Canadian government to consider a special program to bring in more refugees (Ponomare 2017), in a context where many other countries, such as the United States, have scaled back their refugee programs in recent years (Levitz 2017).

Peak population aging could intensify the perceived need for higher immigration.

Between now and 2031, Canada is expected to experience peak aging of the population. The aging phenomenon could create new pressures and associated justifications to increase immigration in an effort to counter demographic and economic challenges.

Canada is expected to maintain its status as a desirable country for immigrants in the future.

While global competition for immigrants has grown, Canada is considered to be well placed in this competition and remains a very attractive country to immigrants (OECD 2016b). As evidence of this, Canada’s international ranking in terms of number of immigrants received was essentially unchanged between 2000 (tied for 4th most) and 2015 (tied for 5th most) (United Nations 2016).

Arguments in support of a stabilization or slight decrease in immigration levels in the future

Integration and system capacity issues could prevent further increases to immigration levels.

Despite the current federal government’s stated intention to increase immigration levels, there could be capacity issues on several fronts which could impede the achievement of these goals. In IRCC’s 2017/2018 Departmental Plan, the increasing use of partners and third parties to support program implementation is identified as a key risk that could affect the ability to reach immigration targets (IRCC 2017b). Results of IRCC’s recent consultations with stakeholders and the general public revealed some concerns regarding the integration of immigrants. For instance, some stakeholders noted that should immigration levels increase, the settlement sector would need time and resources to increase its capacity for associated programming (IRCC 2016; 2017c). Additionally, some members of the public called for reductions in immigration levels, citing concerns about social and labour market integration and the costs associated with integration supports (IRCC 2017c). Concerns about the linguistic and economic integration issues, the capacity of Canada’s labour market to supply adequate employment opportunities to newcomers, the capacity of Canada to properly support and educate newcomers, among others (IRCC 2016).

The sociocultural absorptive capacity for increased immigration may be approaching limits within some of Canada’s urban centres in particular. Overall, integration of the immigration population in Canadian society is considered to be higher than in most other OECD countries (OECD 2016b), a characteristic often used to explain in part the continued public support for immigration in the country (OECD 2016b; Jones 2016). However, concerns have been raised recently by various immigrant settlement organization representatives in Toronto and Vancouver, who have pointed to issues related to affordable housing, the high rate of unemployment and precarious, low-paying work among visible minority immigrant women in particular in these cities (Pelley 2017; Todd 2017).

The Advisory Council on Economic Growth (2016) acknowledges that the higher population growth resulting from its recommendation of increased immigration will require increased investments in public services and infrastructure by all levels of government. However they state “The recommended increase of 150,000 permanent economic immigrants is not expected to strain public education, transportation, or healthcare systems over the course of the 5 year ramp up period” (p.6).

These integration concerns, if they become more vocal and numerous, could motivate a stabilization of immigration levels as opposed to an increase in the future.

The economic benefits of immigration, often used to justify planned increases, may be questionable and could be held up to increasing scrutiny if levels continue to increase in the future.

Most advocates of the economic benefits of higher immigration do not support their claims with evidence, nor quantify the additional investments needed for successful integration (Grubel 2016a, 2016b; Griffith September 1 2017; Todd 2017). As Hou and Picot (2016) note, measuring the net benefit of a given immigration level is difficult since the various costs and benefits associated with the diverse goals attached to immigration cannot be compared on the same scale. Attempting to select appropriate immigration levels and admitted categories by trying to predict in advance the needs for the coming year(s) is very difficult (OECD 2016b). This situation is further complicated by the fact that Canada has large regional diversity in labour needs, but there are few regional labour forecasting systems in place (OECD 2016b). Additionally, discussions of the economic impacts of permanent versus non-permanent migration are often done in isolation from one another, further muddying understanding of the issue (Riddell et al. 2016).

Given these challenges, economists largely agree that the economic impact of immigration is a controversial topic and one needing more research (OECD 2013; OECD 2014; Riddell et al. 2016; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine (NAS) 2016; Lee 2017), particularly Canada-specific analyses, since Canada has unique immigration characteristics owing to its points system (Riddell et al. 2016). There have been few in-depth analyses of the impacts of immigration levels in Canada, in part because long-term impacts are difficult to measure (Hou and Picot 2014) and findings vary depending on assumptions made and the methodology used (OECD 2013; NAS 2016; Lee 2017).

That said, economists generally agree that according to evidence to date, the net economic impact of immigration is very small, and varies by job sector, quantile of the income distribution and geographic region–details that are masked when statements are made about average impacts at the national level (OECD 2013; NAS 2016; Riddell et al. 2016). Immigration has both negative (added competition for jobs and housing) and positive (larger consumer base and increased businesses) effects (Riddell et al. 2016). An increase in overall gross domestic product resulting from a larger population is arguably only beneficial if it also translates into a rise in quality of life for an average Canadian. However, increasing the size of the economy does not necessarily create a proportional increase in individual wellbeing (Riddell et al. 2016, Beaujot 2017).

Recent findings from the Conference Board of Canada provide further evidence of this notion: in a test of the fiscal and demographic impact of raising immigration to the levels proposed by the Advisory Council on Economic Growth (2016), they found that in fact the “status quo” projection scenario (continuing the immigration rate of around 0.8%) resulted in the highest rise in real GDP per capita. In contrast, increasing immigration to 1.1% per year resulted in greater fiscal challenges since it would lead to higher social expenditures (El-Assal and Fields 2017).^Note  According to Riddell et al. (2016), “immigration cannot be relied upon as a source of higher per capita incomes as measured by employment prospects and wages”, and as a result, “we should not view immigration as a source of greater prosperity”.

In Lee’s (2017) opinion, given the difficulty in drawing conclusions about the fiscal effects of immigration, immigration policy should not be designed with economic goals in mind; instead “a rationale for setting the quantitative levels of immigration must be found elsewhere” (Lee 2017, p.173). Riddell et al. (2016) find this notion “liberating”, since “it means that we can think about other goals for immigration policy – in terms of yielding a more diverse, dynamic society or offering opportunities to people from other parts of the world – without concern for significant negative effects on Canadian workers”. Recent IRCC consultations revealed that even stakeholders generally see immigration as only one part of a larger strategy to meet labour market needs, and that it should be balanced with fostering talent within Canada (IRCC 2017c).

There is currently a gap in economic outcomes between immigrants and the Canadian-born population. The continuation of this phenomenon, or its intensification, could provoke decreased public support for immigration or decrease the attractiveness of Canada to potential immigrants in a more competitive international migrant market in the future.

IRCC’s recent public consultations revealed that some members of the general public called for reductions in immigration levels, citing concerns about labour market integration (IRCC 2016; 2017c). There is some evidence that recent cohorts of new immigrants have not improved their income positions relative to the Canadian born (Picot and Hou 2014). Riddell et al. (2016) argue that these trends imply that new immigrants are a net “drag” on the public fiscal balance: due to their lower incomes, they pay less in taxes on average and make slightly above average use of government services and benefits. These negative outcomes, at least in the short-term, could be exacerbated in the context of a sudden substantial increase in immigration levels: Hou and Picot (2016), in their analysis of the influence of immigrant levels on immigrant entry earnings, find that increased immigrant cohort size tended to put downward pressure on immigrant entry earnings, regardless of macroeconomic conditions or place in the earnings distribution.

The 2017 IRCC Annual Report to Parliament states “IRCC is mindful of the gaps between immigrants and the Canadian-born in economic outcomes, as well as the gender gap between female and male immigrants. IRCC will continue to monitor the economic outcomes of immigrants closely, particularly the gender gap, and to enhance the Settlement Program through innovative ways to position and support immigrants to achieve success” (IRCC 2017a, p. 28), though no further details are provided. Progress in this regard seems to have plateaued in recent years: among new immigrants, entry earnings remained fairly constant throughout the 1990s and 2000s (Hou and Picot 2016). The economic outcomes of immigrants also tend to vary more strongly with the economic cycle than that of native-born persons (OECD 2013), making them more vulnerable to economic recessions and depressions.

Motivated in part by the desire to improve the economic and social integration of immigrants, the federal government has in recent years created new programs and program modifications to ease the transition from non-permanent to permanent residence under certain conditions, foremost among them the Canadian Experience Class (CEC), which heavily favours admissions with pre-arranged employment offers. The OECD, in a review of Canada’s immigration program, notes that a significant proportion of admissions under the CEC program in recently years have been in the category of Food Service Supervisors and Cooks, with few pathways to permanent residency via “intermediate” skill jobs, raising questions about the effectiveness of the system to select and attract those with the highest skills (OECD 2016b). Hou and Picot (2016) observe that if economic principal applicants whose status changes from temporary foreign worker to permanent resident are in increasingly lower-paying, lower-skilled jobs, then entry earnings of immigrants may fall in the future, despite them having Canadian work experience.

The federal government has recently modified its Express Entry program to make it easier for newly-graduated international students to become permanent residents (Zilio and Chiose 2017), following recommendations from the OECD (2016b) and the Advisory Council on Economic Growth (2016). It remains to be seen whether program adjustments such as this will achieve the federal government’s goal to allow “immigrants [to] contribute their talents to support our economic growth and innovations, helping to keep our country at the forefront of the global economy” (IRCC 2017d).

The demographic benefits of immigration, often used to justify planned increases, may be questionable and could be held up to increasing scrutiny if levels continue to increase in the future.

While international migration can partly reduce old-age dependency ratios, it cannot reverse the trend of population aging (United Nations 2016). It has been found that immigration to Canada has both rejuvenating and aging effects on the population, resulting in very little net change in terms of population aging (Caron Malenfant et al. 2011; Riddell et al. 2016; Robson and Mahboubi 2018). In a recent article from the C.D. Howe Institute (Robson and Mahboubi 2018), it is argued that, compared to increasing immigration levels, a policy directed at encouraging people to work longer may result in equal if not greater reductions in the fiscal challenges and pressure on living standards associated with the aging of the population through its direct impact on the dependency ratio. The authors conclude “Canada’s success in managing the stresses created by low fertility and longer lifespans will depend on much more than immigrants.” (Robson and Mahboubi 2018, p. 13).

Furthermore, certain Canadian demographers such as Beaujot (2017) have recently argued that as an alternative to continual population growth through sustained high immigration, stabilization of the population (also known as a stationary population) would in fact permit the achievement of greater quality of life standards, social cohesion and longer-term ecological goals. According to Romaniuk (2017), immigration has been wrongly considered a “palliative solution for all problems, real and imaginary, that beset Western societies” (p. 168). He argues that rather than increasing immigration—which in his view does little to combat population aging, has no proven record of economic benefit and holds potential negative societal and ecological impacts—Western nations should instead focus on implementing policies which reduce the barriers to women achieving replacement-level fertility. In his view, “there is a need to rethink the balance in the allocation of resources between production and reproduction. So far, the former is being privileged at the expense of the latter” (Romaniuk 2017, p. 173).

Generally, the Canadian public is not in favour of increasing immigration levels.

Public opinion of immigration is key to the successful integration of immigrants (Jones 2016), and therefore levels could stabilize in the future if there is evidence of decreasing public support. Sachs (2016) identifies Canada’s “pace” of immigration in the recent past as being exemplary of a phased approach which results in continued public support of immigration.

While the public is generally poor at accurately estimating the level of immigration^Note  (Butler 2014; Willekens et al. 2016), they are aware that levels are increasing (Ipsos Reid 2017), and when informed about current immigration levels, they become more likely to think levels are too high (IRCC 2016). In a recent public opinion poll, of all response options (“agree”, “neither”, “disagree” or “don’t know”), Canadians were most likely to state that they “agree” that “immigration has placed too much pressure on public services in Canada” (50%), that “immigration is causing Canada to change in ways that I don’t like” (40%) and that “there are too many immigrants in Canada” (35%) (Ipsos Reid 2017). Griffith (2017) cautions that while Canada has managed previous immigration increases without major public backlash, it is important to carefully manage the immigration program in order to maintain public support.

Public support for immigration could decline in the future for various reasons, leading to a decrease in immigration levels.

Recent IRCC (2016; 2017c) consultations with stakeholders and the public at large revealed that many feel Canada’s immigrants need to be more widely distributed across the country than they currently are, particularly into rural areas and smaller urban centres. Some Canadian economists agree with this sentiment (Riddell et al. 2016; Griffith 2017). To date, however, most immigrants continue to reside in the three largest urban centres (Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver), where concerns have been raised publicly about the economic prospects of immigrants in these areas and the ability of these cities to successfully integrate and house newcomers in higher numbers in the future (Harris 2017; Pelley 2017; Todd 2017). Despite recent efforts to attract and retain more immigrants in the Atlantic provinces, there has been fairly limited success in this regard to date (for more details, see Appendix A5.2).

Even if greater success could be achieved in attracting immigrants to more rural parts of the country, there may be practical barriers to the settlement of immigrants into rural communities such as the lack of community infrastructure, settlement services and transportation (IRCC 2017c).

Public support for immigration in Canada has been found to be selective, in that Canadians—in contrast to many other countries—vastly prefer permanent (particularly economic category) over temporary migration (Bloemraad 2012; Jones 2016). If the number of non-permanent residents in Canada continues its recent strong increasing trend (Bauder 2014; Lu and Hou 2017) and the public begins to perceive that this number is becoming too high, public support for immigration could deteriorate in response (Bloemraad 2012).

Many Canadians express a strong desire for immigrants to integrate into society (Bloemraad 2012; IRCC 2016; 2017c), and new, larger or unexpected immigration flows can cause unrest and controversy, particularly around the issues of religious accommodation and unauthorized asylum seekers. Canadians are not overly supportive of unauthorized immigration, and a rapid increase in this population could have a negative effect on public opinion about immigration (Bloemraad 2012). There is some evidence of growing support for a “closed door” approach to refugees in public polls (from 6% in 2016 to 25% in 2017), though the majority of respondents (65%) still do not agree with this sentiment (Ipsos Reid 2017). With recent events involving large increases in the number of asylum seekers irregularly entering Canada, there has been an increase in more public, vocal opposition to these migrants (Forrest 2017; Cochrane and Laventure 2017; Tasker 2017; Loewen 2017).

Technological advancements and other developments could substantially alter the labour market in the future, lessening the demand for higher immigration levels.

While Canada faces a rapidly aging population and potential labour shortages in some segments and regions of the labour market, technological advancements (particularly artificial intelligence) could substantially alter the labour market in the future, creating an environment where jobs become scarcer or labour productivity gains can be made without adding workers to the labour force—evolutions that could lessen the desire for continued higher immigration levels (El-Assal and Fields 2017; Romaniuk 2017; Griffith 2017; NAS 2016). Romaniuk (2017) also points to the potential productivity gains for the senior populations of today and the near future as they experience comparatively good health and longevity and therefore could continue working to older ages than seniors of the past.

Results of the 2018 Survey of Experts on Future Demographic Trends

In total, 16 experts provided their views on the future evolution of immigration in Canada. Experts were first asked to describe the arguments, trends or possibilities they considered when formulating their views about the probable distribution of the immigration rate (number of immigrants per thousand total population) in Canada in 2043.

Some experts thought that the immigration rate would likely stay close to the average observed over the last several decades noting that Canada’s large geographic territory and continued public support for immigration should permit a similar ‘welcoming capacity’ to be maintained in the future. Additionally, some experts offered arguments which might suggest higher immigration levels in the future. Among these were the powerful sway of pro-immigration lobbyists, the discourse around population aging and labour shortages which views immigration as a solution to these challenges, possible environmental (climate change) or other humanitarian crises leading to an influx of refugee claimants, and growing demographic pressures on the part of non-industrialized countries.

Alternatively, other factors raised by the experts could suggests a decrease in immigration levels in the future. Several experts mentioned the growth of nationalism, protectionism and populism in many parts of the world; such movements could on one hand lead to proportionally more immigrants wanting to settle in Canada (providing Canada continues to resist such political orientations). On the other hand, if anti-immigration sentiments grow in Canada (perhaps in reaction to increased asylum claimants entering the country irregularly), this could lead to decreased admissions targets or a move to increase non-permanent resident admissions over permanent ones. It was also mentioned by several experts that technological advancements such as automatization and artificial intelligence could diminish the perceived need for immigrants to fill anticipated labour shortages.

Multiple experts pointed out the difficulty of trying to envision the long-term future of immigration when it is a highly political decision, reactive to economic fluctuations and therefore subject to considerable uncertainty. The possibility of unique immigration trends in Quebec in the future was also noted by numerous experts.

Following their qualitative arguments, experts were asked to communicate their views about the likely evolution of the immigration rate in Canada in 2043 quantitatively; that is, by building a probability distribution that exemplified their opinion, and level of uncertainty, regarding what values the immigration rate could take in 25 years. More specifically, each expert was asked to provide the following parameters:

1. Lower and upper bounds of a range covering nearly all plausible values of the immigration rate in Canada in 2043;
2. Their level of confidence (expressed in percent, with a minimum of 90% imposed) that the true value of the immigration rate in 2043 will fall within the range specified in Step (a);
3. The median value of the plausible range provided in Step (a), such that they expect an equal (50-50) chance that the immigration rate lies above or below the median;
4. Probabilities that the immigration rate in 2043 will fall below and above the mid-points between:
   • the lower bound of the plausible range provided in Step (a) and the median provided in Step (c); and
   • the median provided in Step (c) and the upper bound of the plausible range provided in Step (a).^Note 

Using these parameters, a visual representation of the resulting probability distribution was displayed, and the expert was then encouraged to modify their inputs until they arrived at a satisfactory visual representation of their beliefs. The individual probability distributions of 14 experts^Note  regarding their views about the probable immigration rate in Canada in 2043 are displayed in Figure 5.3 (grey lines).

Description for Figure 5.3

This line graph shows the individual probability distributions (grey lines) and aggregate mixture distribution (red line) of the immigration rate in Canada in 2043 according to the respondents of the 2018 Survey of Experts on Future Demographic Trends. The horizontal axis plots the immigration rate (per thousand). The vertical axis plots the probability density.

The individual probability distributions of the 14 experts were aggregated via a mixture distribution,^Note  the result of which is shown in the red solid line of Figure 5.3. This aggregation resulted in a bimodal, right-skewed probability distribution, with one peak at 8.0 immigrants per thousand and another at 9.7 immigrants per thousand, and a median of 8.3 immigrants per thousand total population. The 10th and 90th percentiles of the distribution were represented by 6.5 and 10.8 immigrants per thousand population, respectively. Taken together, the expert views seem to envision that an immigration rate close to that recently observed is most likely, but that it is also fairly possible (though not quite as likely) that immigration rates could increase by 2043.

Immigration assumptions

Canada’s total immigration rate

Assumptions about immigration are formulated in terms of immigration rates (that is, the number of immigrants per thousand total Canadian population) at the national level. Appendix A5.1 provides a rationale to utilize rates instead of raw numbers in our assumptions.

The general approach to building the immigration assumptions—that is, combining short- and long-term trajectories—is similar to that described in Chapter 1: General Approach to Assumption Building. Unique to the immigration component, however, is the integration of IRCC’s planned immigration admission level targets^Note  for the years 2019 to 2021.^Note  IRCC’s targets were considered to be the best guide for these years, since, as seen earlier in Figure 5.1, the observed number of immigrants in a given year tends to fall within or close to the planned range. While this results in a relatively narrow range of immigration rates in the very early years of the projection across scenarios, this was deemed acceptable since, unlike most other demographic behaviours projected, immigration levels are controlled by the government and planned in advance—thus reducing their uncertainty in the very short term future.

After 2020/2021, short-term trajectories of Canada’s immigration rate were obtained by extrapolating trends in the change in total immigration rates observed between 2007/2008 and 2017/2018). Long-term trajectories were derived from the views of the respondents to the 2018 Survey of Experts on Future Demographic Trends. More specifically, the median (50th percentile) of the aggregate distribution from experts regarding the plausible range of the immigration rate in 2043 was used to obtain a medium immigration target for Canada; the 90th percentile to obtain a high immigration target; and the 10th percentile to obtain a low immigration target.

The short- and long-term trajectories were combined in a manner that allows Canada’s immigration rate to follow recent trends in the earlier projection years (i.e., an increasing trend), while in the long term, immigration rates follow the views of the respondents to the expert survey regarding the plausible range of Canada’s immigration rate in 2042/2043. After 2042/2043, Canada’s immigration rate is held constant for the remainder of the projection.

Under the medium immigration assumption, the annual immigration rate would reach 8.3 per thousand (or 0.83% of the total population) in 2042/2043, holding constant for the remainder of the projection.

In addition to representing the median value in the aggregate probability distribution from the respondents to the 2018 Survey of Experts on Future Demographic Trends regarding what values the immigration rate in Canada could plausibly be in 2042/2043, the long-term medium immigration assumption of 8.3 per thousand is nearly identical to the most recently-observed immigration rate of 8.2 per thousand in 2017/2018. This assumption represents a balance of the various arguments in favour of future immigration increases with those suggesting immigration could reasonably decrease in the future. While the current federal government clearly intends to increase immigration in the short term, a change in federal leadership, a decrease in public support for immigration or other possible evolutions could result in a stabilization of immigration close to the rates experienced most recently.

Under the high immigration assumption, the annual immigration rate would evolve to reach 10.8 per thousand (or 1.08% of the population) in 2042/2043, holding constant for the remainder of the projection.

The long-term high immigration target of 10.8 immigrants per thousand represents the 90th percentile of the aggregate probability distribution from the respondents to the 2018 Survey of Experts on Future Demographic Trends regarding what values the immigration rate in Canada could plausibly be in 2042/2043. The high immigration assumption reflects the growing momentum for a pro-higher-immigration stance, as exemplified by the immigration targets of the current federal government up to 2021 and the recommendations of key advisors of the current federal leadership, certain segments of the national media, and immigration stakeholders.

Under the low immigration assumption, the annual immigration rate would gradually decrease to reach 6.5 per thousand (or 0.65% of the total population) in 2042/2043, holding constant for the remainder of the projection.

The long-term low immigration assumption of 6.5 per thousand represents the 10th percentile of the aggregate probability distribution from the respondents to the 2018 Survey of Experts on Future Demographic Trends regarding what values the immigration rate in Canada could plausibly be in 2042/2043. Under this assumption, a decrease in public support for immigration, capacity limits of various kinds or major shifts in the nature of the labour market could dampen the recent emphasis on higher immigration rates.

Figure 5.4 summarizes the historical and projected immigration rate per thousand at the Canada level.

Description for Figure 5.4



Data table for Figure 5.4
Immigration rate (per thousand), Canada, historic (1971/1972 to 2017/2018) and projected (2018/2019 to 2067/2068) according to the low, medium and high immigration assumptions
Table summary
This table displays the results of Immigration rate (per thousand). The information is grouped by Period (appearing as row headers), Historic, Low assumption, Medium assumption and High assumption, calculated using per thousand units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Period	Historic	Low assumption	Medium assumption	High assumption
	per thousand
1971/1972	5.3	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1972/1973	6.2	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1973/1974	9.6	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1974/1975	9.1	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1975/1976	7.3	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1976/1977	5.6	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1977/1978	4.2	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1978/1979	3.5	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1979/1980	5.9	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1980/1981	5.2	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1981/1982	5.4	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1982/1983	4.0	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1983/1984	3.5	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1984/1985	3.3	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1985/1986	3.4	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1986/1987	5.0	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1987/1988	5.7	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1988/1989	6.6	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1989/1990	7.4	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1990/1991	7.9	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1991/1992	8.7	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1992/1993	9.4	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1993/1994	8.2	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1994/1995	7.6	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1995/1996	7.4	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1996/1997	7.6	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1997/1998	6.5	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1998/1999	5.7	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1999/2000	6.7	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2000/2001	8.2	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2001/2002	8.2	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2002/2003	6.3	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2003/2004	7.5	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2004/2005	7.6	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2005/2006	7.8	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2006/2007	7.3	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2007/2008	7.5	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2008/2009	7.3	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2009/2010	8.0	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2010/2011	7.6	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2011/2012	7.5	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2012/2013	7.5	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2013/2014	7.6	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2014/2015	6.8	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2015/2016	9.0	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2016/2017	7.5	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2017/2018	8.2	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2018/2019	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	8.2	8.5	8.7
2019/2020	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	8.2	8.7	9.1
2020/2021	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	8.2	9.0	9.5
2021/2022	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	8.1	9.1	9.8
2022/2023	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	8.0	9.1	10.0
2023/2024	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	8.0	9.1	10.2
2024/2025	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.9	9.1	10.3
2025/2026	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.8	9.1	10.4
2026/2027	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.7	9.1	10.5
2027/2028	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.6	9.1	10.6
2028/2029	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.6	9.0	10.7
2029/2030	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.5	9.0	10.7
2030/2031	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.4	9.0	10.8
2031/2032	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.3	8.9	10.8
2032/2033	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.3	8.9	10.9
2033/2034	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.2	8.8	10.9
2034/2035	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.1	8.8	10.9
2035/2036	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.0	8.7	10.9
2036/2037	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.0	8.7	10.9
2037/2038	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.9	8.6	10.9
2038/2039	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.8	8.6	10.9
2039/2040	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.7	8.5	10.9
2040/2041	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.7	8.4	10.9
2041/2042	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.6	8.4	10.8
2042/2043	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2043/2044	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2044/2045	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2045/2046	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2046/2047	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2047/2048	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2048/2049	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2049/2050	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2050/2051	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2051/2052	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2052/2053	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2053/2054	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2054/2055	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2055/2056	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2056/2057	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2057/2058	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2058/2059	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2059/2060	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2060/2061	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2061/2062	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2062/2063	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2063/2064	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2064/2065	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2065/2066	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2066/2067	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
2067/2068	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.5	8.3	10.8
.. not available for a specific reference period Sources: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada and Statistics Canada, Demography Division.

Distribution of Canada’s immigrants by province/territory, age and sex

There is a single, unique assumption regarding the distribution of Canada’s immigrants by province/territory, age and sex. The possibility of developing multiple assumptions regarding the distribution was investigated but ultimately not pursued (see Appendix A5.2 for more details).

Historical data used in the calculation of the distribution of immigrants by age, sex and province/territory were adjusted using data from the Longitudinal Immigration Database (IMDB). Following the same procedure detailed in Chapter 5 of Bohnert et al. (2015), an adjustment factor was calculated for each province and territory, by major age group and sex, based on the degree of discrepancy between the intended destination of an immigrant stated before entering Canada and the province or territory of residence reported by the immigrant in income tax files during the first (reference) year in Canada.

Table 5.1 shows the change in the historical geographic distribution of Canada’s immigrants following the implementation of the adjustment factor for each province and territory in 2017/2018. The adjustment results in a decrease in the proportion of Canada’s immigrants residing in each of the Atlantic provinces, Quebec, Manitoba, Saskatchewan and Yukon, while the proportion residing in Ontario, Alberta, British Columbia, Northwest Territories and Nunavut are adjusted slightly upward.



The assumption regarding the evolution of the geographic distribution of immigrants utilizes the same general short-term/long-term trajectory combination approach as described in Chapter 1: General Approach to Assumption Building. For the short-term trajectory, each province/territory’s historical proportion of Canada’s total immigrants is extrapolated based on the (adjusted) trends observed during the period 2007/2008 to 2017/2018.^Note  For the long-term trajectory, target proportions are established for the year 2042/2043 based on the (adjusted) average proportion of immigrants going to each province/territory during the period 2007/2008 to 2017/2018. These short-term and long-term trajectories are combined into a single, unique assumption regarding the evolution of the geographic distribution of Canada’s immigrants over the course of the projection.^Note 

Under this approach, in the early years of the projection, it is assumed that recent trends in the distribution of Canada’s immigrants will continue, while in the longer term, the geographic distribution of Canada’s immigrants will reflect the patterns over a longer-term historical average. For instance, the share of Canada’s immigrants residing in Nova Scotia would be maintained at their relatively elevated levels in the early years of the projection—reflecting a recent uptick in the share in the last few years of observed data. In the later years of the projection however, the share of immigrants going to Nova Scotia would gradually decrease to a level in line with the average proportion observed over the last 10 years. Figure 5.5 displays the assumptions regarding the projected distribution of Canada’s immigrants among the provinces and territories over the course of the projection.

Description for Figure 5.5



Data table for Figure 5.5
Distribution (percent) of Canada's total immigrants by province and territory, historic (1971/1972 to 2017/2018) and projected (2018/2019 to 2067/2068)
Table summary
This table displays the results of Distribution (percent) of Canada's total immigrants by province and territory. The information is grouped by Period (appearing as row headers), Newfoundland and Labrador, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, British Columbia, Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut, Historic, Projected, Unadjusted and Adjusted, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Period	Newfoundland and Labrador			Prince Edward Island			Nova Scotia			New Brunswick			Quebec			Ontario			Manitoba			Saskatchewan			Alberta			British Columbia			Yukon			Northwest Territories			NunavutData table Note 1
	Historic		Projected	Historic		Projected	Historic		Projected	Historic		Projected	Historic		Projected	Historic		Projected	Historic		Projected	Historic		Projected	Historic		Projected	Historic		Projected	Historic		Projected	Historic		Projected	Historic		Projected
	Unadjusted	Adjusted		Unadjusted	Adjusted		Unadjusted	Adjusted		Unadjusted	Adjusted		Unadjusted	Adjusted		Unadjusted	Adjusted		Unadjusted	Adjusted		Unadjusted	Adjusted		Unadjusted	Adjusted		Unadjusted	Adjusted		Unadjusted	Adjusted		Unadjusted	Adjusted		Unadjusted	Adjusted
	percent
1971/1972	0.62	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.15	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.46	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.92	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	53.20	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.35	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.26	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.72	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1972/1973	0.54	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.39	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.34	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	54.33	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	3.86	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.71	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.29	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.16	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1973/1974	0.52	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.17	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.41	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.27	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	55.35	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	3.57	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.34	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.17	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1974/1975	0.48	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.14	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.95	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.97	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	53.93	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	3.50	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.20	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.50	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1975/1976	0.60	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.13	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.18	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.32	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.68	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	50.37	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	3.82	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.53	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	9.35	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.86	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.11	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1976/1977	0.49	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.15	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.42	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	19.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	48.32	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	3.94	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.82	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	10.55	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	12.95	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.11	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1977/1978	0.46	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.17	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.21	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.74	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	49.51	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.38	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.89	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	11.52	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.91	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1978/1979	0.45	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.20	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.14	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.82	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	17.55	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	48.24	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.98	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	10.58	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.83	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1979/1980	0.47	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.21	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.31	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.95	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	44.87	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	5.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	2.59	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	11.96	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.40	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1980/1981	0.38	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.11	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.00	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.76	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.77	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	42.95	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.97	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	2.33	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.59	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	17.98	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.08	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.08	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1981/1982	0.31	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.11	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.65	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	17.77	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	42.76	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	3.82	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.75	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.25	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.35	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1982/1983	0.35	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.14	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.92	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.65	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	18.44	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	44.33	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.45	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.89	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.48	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.21	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.08	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1983/1984	0.35	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.63	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	17.23	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	45.44	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.47	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	2.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	12.13	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.33	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1984/1985	0.36	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.14	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.25	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.71	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.17	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	48.19	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.14	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	2.49	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	11.73	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.68	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1985/1986	0.34	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.15	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.70	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	17.98	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	48.68	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.41	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	2.16	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	10.39	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.98	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1986/1987	0.27	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.13	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.89	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.52	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	19.45	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	53.68	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	3.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.63	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	8.13	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	12.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1987/1988	0.29	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.11	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.80	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.38	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.17	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	55.93	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	3.18	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.31	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	8.32	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.44	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1988/1989	0.24	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.08	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.82	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.41	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.60	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	55.21	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	2.98	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.25	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	8.46	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.84	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1989/1990	0.24	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.71	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.47	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	18.57	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	53.53	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	3.33	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.08	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	8.85	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1990/1991	0.28	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.70	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.33	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	20.68	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	52.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	2.86	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	8.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.84	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1991/1992	0.29	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.79	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.33	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	21.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	53.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.96	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.96	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.25	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.00	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1992/1993	0.30	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.97	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.28	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	18.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	54.69	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	2.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.96	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.11	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.37	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1993/1994	0.30	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.31	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.25	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.28	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	51.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.92	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.97	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.74	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	21.00	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1994/1995	0.28	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.69	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.31	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	12.13	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	54.24	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.73	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.99	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.48	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	20.96	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1995/1996	0.26	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.56	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.30	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.56	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	53.32	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.69	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.84	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.38	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	21.95	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.00	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1996/1997	0.21	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.08	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.38	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.30	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	12.45	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	53.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.79	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.79	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.13	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	23.68	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1997/1998	0.21	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.33	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.37	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	54.73	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.59	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.82	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	5.99	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	20.80	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1998/1999	0.21	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.94	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.43	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.02	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	53.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.90	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.49	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	19.79	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1999/2000	0.21	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.81	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.30	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.71	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	56.75	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	2.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.81	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.25	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	17.96	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2000/2001	0.18	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.69	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.35	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.54	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	59.40	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.92	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.73	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.42	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.66	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.02	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.00	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2001/2002	0.16	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.63	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.30	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.25	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	59.60	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.88	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.71	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.51	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.83	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2002/2003	0.16	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.63	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.32	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	17.53	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	55.14	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	2.46	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.78	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.84	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.00	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2003/2004	0.22	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.11	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.71	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.32	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	18.64	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	53.51	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	3.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.79	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.16	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.36	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.00	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2004/2005	0.22	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.13	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.70	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.35	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	17.75	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	53.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	3.14	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.86	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.13	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.59	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.02	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.00	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2005/2006	0.18	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.14	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.86	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.54	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.51	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	52.31	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	3.49	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.83	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	7.83	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	17.24	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.00	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2006/2007	0.22	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.31	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.14	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.68	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	18.93	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	48.48	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.53	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.30	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	8.46	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.88	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.02	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.00	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2007/2008	0.25	0.22	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.51	0.35	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.07	1.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.72	0.64	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	18.38	17.62	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	46.09	46.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.30	4.08	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.72	1.71	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	9.54	10.26	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	17.31	17.86	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.05	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01	0.02	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2008/2009	0.23	0.20	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.70	0.48	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.00	0.97	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.78	0.70	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	18.96	18.21	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	42.98	43.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	5.28	5.02	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	2.42	2.40	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	10.26	11.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	17.28	17.84	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.05	0.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.04	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01	0.02	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2009/2010	0.25	0.22	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.66	0.45	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.89	0.86	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.71	0.64	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	19.04	18.27	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	43.08	43.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	5.22	4.95	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	2.66	2.64	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	11.09	11.94	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.21	16.73	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.12	0.14	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.05	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01	0.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2010/2011	0.27	0.23	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.01	0.68	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.88	0.86	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.77	0.68	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	20.61	19.82	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	40.53	40.64	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.11	5.81	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	2.92	2.90	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	11.75	12.68	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.03	15.54	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.08	0.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.03	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01	0.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2011/2012	0.29	0.23	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.53	0.42	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.91	0.80	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.87	0.75	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	20.85	19.85	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	38.94	40.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	5.80	5.28	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.40	4.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.28	13.85	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.94	14.45	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.13	0.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.05	0.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01	0.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2012/2013	0.26	0.21	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.33	0.26	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.85	0.76	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.77	0.66	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	21.29	20.26	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	40.23	41.32	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.83	4.39	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	3.74	3.43	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.98	14.53	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.58	14.02	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.08	0.08	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.06	0.08	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.00	0.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2013/2014	0.38	0.31	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.52	0.43	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.04	0.91	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.86	0.73	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	19.30	18.38	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	38.01	39.11	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	5.78	5.26	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.60	4.22	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.30	15.95	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.00	14.48	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.13	0.13	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.06	0.08	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01	0.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2014/2015	0.35	0.29	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.56	0.45	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.12	0.98	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.16	0.99	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	18.90	17.99	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	37.24	38.38	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	6.15	5.59	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.73	4.34	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.44	17.16	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.15	13.61	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.11	0.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.07	0.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01	0.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2015/2016	0.44	0.36	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.62	0.51	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.68	1.47	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.38	1.18	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	17.13	16.30	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	37.24	38.33	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	5.39	4.90	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.69	4.30	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	17.90	18.66	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.38	13.82	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.08	0.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.07	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01	0.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2016/2017	0.37	0.31	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.83	0.67	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.60	1.40	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.26	1.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	19.51	18.64	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	36.09	37.24	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	5.75	5.25	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	5.25	4.84	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.17	16.90	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	12.98	13.44	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	0.08	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.08	0.11	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01	0.02	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2017/2018	0.42	0.34	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.69	0.56	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.69	1.48	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.36	1.17	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.80	15.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	43.66	44.89	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.67	4.25	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.94	4.54	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	12.76	13.29	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.83	14.24	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	0.08	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.08	0.11	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01	0.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2018/2019	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.35	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.57	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.52	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.22	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.73	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	45.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.21	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.73	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.39	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.02	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2019/2020	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.36	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.58	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.55	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.24	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.57	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	45.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.20	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.85	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.47	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.87	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2020/2021	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.36	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.58	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.56	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.26	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.48	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	45.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.20	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.93	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.56	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.77	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2021/2022	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.37	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.59	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.57	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.27	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.44	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	45.02	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.21	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.99	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.63	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.69	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2022/2023	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.37	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.59	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.57	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.28	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.44	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	44.94	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.22	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	5.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.71	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.64	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2023/2024	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.37	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.59	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.57	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.28	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.47	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	44.83	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.24	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	5.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.78	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.60	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2024/2025	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.37	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.59	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.57	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.27	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.53	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	44.70	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.26	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	5.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.85	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.58	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2025/2026	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.36	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.59	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.56	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.27	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.62	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	44.55	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.29	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	5.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.92	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.57	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2026/2027	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.36	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.59	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.54	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.26	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.72	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	44.39	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.32	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	5.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.99	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.57	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2027/2028	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.36	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.59	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.53	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.25	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.84	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	44.21	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.35	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	5.01	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.59	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2028/2029	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.36	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.58	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.51	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.24	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.98	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	44.02	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.38	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.98	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.61	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2029/2030	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.35	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.58	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.49	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.22	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.13	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	43.82	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.42	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.94	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.19	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.64	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2030/2031	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.35	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.58	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.47	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.20	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.30	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	43.61	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.46	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.89	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.25	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.68	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.11	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2031/2032	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.35	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.57	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.44	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.19	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.48	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	43.39	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.50	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.84	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.31	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.72	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.11	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2032/2033	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.34	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.57	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.42	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.17	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.67	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	43.16	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.54	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.78	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.38	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.77	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.11	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2033/2034	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.34	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.56	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.39	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.14	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	15.87	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	42.92	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.58	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.71	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.44	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.83	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.11	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2034/2035	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.33	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.56	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.36	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.08	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	42.67	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.63	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.64	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.50	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.89	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.11	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2035/2036	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.33	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.55	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.33	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.30	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	42.42	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.68	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.57	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.56	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	13.96	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2036/2037	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.32	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.54	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.30	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.53	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	42.15	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.73	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.49	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.62	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2037/2038	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.31	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.54	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.27	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	16.77	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	41.89	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.78	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.40	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.67	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.12	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2038/2039	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.31	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.53	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.24	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.02	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	17.02	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	41.61	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.83	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.32	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.73	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.20	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2039/2040	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.30	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.52	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.20	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.99	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	17.28	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	41.33	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.88	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.22	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.79	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.29	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2040/2041	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.29	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.51	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.17	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.96	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	17.54	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	41.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.93	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.13	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.84	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.38	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2041/2042	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.29	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.51	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.13	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.93	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	17.81	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	40.75	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.99	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	4.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.90	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.47	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.08	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
2042/2043	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.28	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.50	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	1.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.90	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	18.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	40.46	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	5.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	3.93	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.96	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	14.57	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.10	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.08	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	0.01
.. not available for a specific reference period Note 1 Historical series for Nunavut begins at 1991/1992. Return to note 1 referrer Sources: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada and Statistics Canada, Demography Division.

Within each province and territory, it is assumed that the distribution of immigrants by age and sex is equal to the average (adjusted) distribution observed over the period 2007/2008 to 2017/2018.

Appendix A5.1: Assumptions in the form of numbers instead of rates

There is a strong argument for formulating immigration assumptions in terms of numbers as opposed to rates, as this is how planned immigration levels are presented publicly by IRCC. When we asked about this issue in the 2013 Opinion Survey on Demographic Trends,^Note  the number of arguments offered in support of using rates was nearly equal to those offered in support of using numbers. We ultimately decided to build our assumptions using rates for that edition of the projections, based on the following rationale as stated in the technical report accompanying those projections:

There are also some indications that IRCC intends to formulate immigration level planning in terms of percentages, as opposed to numbers, even if final targets continue to be publicly presented in numbers. In its recent public opinion consultations, IRCC (2016; 2017c) found that the public, when informed about the current number of annual immigrants, became more likely to think that it is too high than when asked generally about their feelings on the current immigration levels. However, when current levels were presented instead as being “just under 1% of the total population”, Canadians became more favourable in opinion of the levels.

Further, IRCC noted that the concept of immigration levels reaching 1% in the future did not generate any significant ‘pushback’ or concerns from the Canadian public, and for many, it helped them make sense of the associated number and made it more acceptable in their minds. As mentioned in the main text, IRCC’s news releases accompanying the most recent immigration plan emphasized repeatedly the fact that immigration levels would be “nearing 1 percent of the Canada’s population in 2021” (IRCC 2018b). This suggests that the government may soon frame immigration plans publicly in terms of rates, as opposed to numbers. For these reasons, we formulate immigration assumptions as rates.

Appendix A5.2: The investigation of alternative assumptions for the distribution of immigrants by province, age and sex

While it could be possible to create several different assumptions about the distribution of immigrants, we did not find any concrete evidence that, for example, the age or sex distribution of immigrants might change markedly from what has been observed in the recent past. As seen in Figure A5.1, the distribution of immigrants by age has become more concentrated in recent decades, with most immigrants falling between ages 25 and 49. This reflects in part the fact that economic immigrants have become more prevalent in recent years; economic immigrants are more concentrated in the core working ages (Figure A5.2). Since 2010, the median age of immigrants has been remarkably stable, averaging 30.5 years.

Description for Figure A5.1



Data table for Figure A5.1
Distribution (percent) of immigrants to Canada, by age, average of selected periods, 1980 to 2018
Table summary
This table displays the results of Distribution (percent) of immigrants to Canada. The information is grouped by Age (appearing as row headers), 1980 to 1989, 1990 to 1999, 2000 to 2009 and 2010 to 2018, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Age	1980 to 1989	1990 to 1999	2000 to 2009	2010 to 2018
	percent
0	0.9	0.8	1.0	0.8
1	1.2	1.2	1.7	1.5
2	1.3	1.2	1.4	1.4
3	1.4	1.3	1.4	1.5
4	1.4	1.4	1.5	1.5
5	1.4	1.5	1.5	1.5
6	1.4	1.5	1.5	1.5
7	1.4	1.5	1.5	1.4
8	1.4	1.6	1.5	1.4
9	1.4	1.6	1.4	1.3
10	1.4	1.6	1.5	1.3
11	1.4	1.6	1.4	1.3
12	1.4	1.6	1.4	1.2
13	1.5	1.5	1.4	1.2
14	1.5	1.5	1.4	1.1
15	1.5	1.5	1.3	1.1
16	1.6	1.4	1.3	1.1
17	1.7	1.4	1.3	1.1
18	2.0	1.4	1.3	0.9
19	2.3	1.6	1.4	1.0
20	2.7	1.6	1.4	1.0
21	2.7	1.6	1.5	1.1
22	2.6	1.8	1.6	1.3
23	2.8	2.1	1.8	1.5
24	2.9	2.3	2.1	1.9
25	3.1	2.6	2.5	2.5
26	3.1	2.9	2.8	3.1
27	3.0	3.0	3.0	3.5
28	2.9	3.1	3.2	3.7
29	2.7	3.0	3.3	3.7
30	2.6	3.0	3.3	3.7
31	2.4	2.9	3.2	3.5
32	2.2	2.7	3.1	3.4
33	2.0	2.6	2.9	3.2
34	1.9	2.5	2.8	3.0
35	1.7	2.4	2.6	2.8
36	1.5	2.2	2.5	2.5
37	1.4	2.1	2.3	2.3
38	1.2	1.9	2.2	2.1
39	1.2	1.8	2.0	1.9
40	1.0	1.7	1.8	1.8
41	0.9	1.6	1.7	1.6
42	0.8	1.4	1.6	1.5
43	0.8	1.3	1.4	1.4
44	0.7	1.2	1.3	1.2
45	0.7	1.1	1.2	1.1
46	0.6	1.0	1.1	1.0
47	0.6	0.8	1.0	1.0
48	0.6	0.7	0.9	0.9
49	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.8
50	0.6	0.6	0.7	0.7
51	0.6	0.6	0.6	0.6
52	0.7	0.6	0.6	0.6
53	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.5
54	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.5
55	0.7	0.5	0.5	0.4
56	0.8	0.5	0.4	0.4
57	0.7	0.5	0.4	0.4
58	0.7	0.5	0.4	0.4
59	0.7	0.5	0.4	0.4
60	0.8	0.5	0.4	0.4
61	0.8	0.5	0.4	0.4
62	0.7	0.5	0.3	0.4
63	0.6	0.5	0.3	0.4
64	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.4
65	0.6	0.4	0.3	0.4
66	0.5	0.4	0.3	0.4
67	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.3
68	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.3
69	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.3
70	0.4	0.3	0.2	0.3
71	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.3
72	0.3	0.2	0.2	0.2
73	0.3	0.2	0.1	0.2
74	0.2	0.2	0.1	0.2
75	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.2
76	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1
77	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1
78	0.2	0.1	0.1	0.1
79	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.1
80	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1
81	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.1
82	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
83	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
84	0.1	0.0	0.0	0.0
85	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
86	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
87	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
88	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
89	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
90 and over	0.2	0.1	0.0	0.0
Source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.

Description for Figure A5.2



Data table for Figure A5.2
Distribution (percent) of immigrants to Canada, by age and category of admission, average of 2014 to 2018 period
Table summary
This table displays the results of Distribution (percent) of immigrants to Canada. The information is grouped by Age (appearing as row headers), Economic, Family, Refugees and Total, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Age	Economic	Family	Refugees	Total
	percent
0	0.8	0.6	1.1	0.8
1	1.5	1.1	1.6	1.4
2	1.5	0.8	1.9	1.4
3	1.7	0.7	2.2	1.5
4	1.8	0.5	2.3	1.5
5	1.7	0.5	2.5	1.5
6	1.7	0.5	2.5	1.5
7	1.6	0.4	2.5	1.4
8	1.5	0.5	2.5	1.4
9	1.4	0.5	2.3	1.3
10	1.3	0.5	2.3	1.3
11	1.3	0.5	2.1	1.2
12	1.2	0.5	2.1	1.2
13	1.2	0.5	2.0	1.1
14	1.1	0.6	1.9	1.1
15	1.0	0.6	1.8	1.0
16	1.0	0.7	1.7	1.0
17	0.9	0.8	1.8	1.0
18	0.8	0.8	1.5	0.9
19	0.7	1.0	1.8	1.0
20	0.6	1.1	1.7	0.9
21	0.6	1.3	1.7	1.0
22	0.8	1.8	1.7	1.2
23	1.0	2.3	1.7	1.5
24	1.5	2.9	1.8	1.9
25	2.5	3.7	1.8	2.7
26	3.4	4.2	1.9	3.4
27	4.1	4.5	2.0	3.9
28	4.4	4.4	2.1	4.0
29	4.5	4.1	2.1	4.0
30	4.5	3.8	2.2	3.9
31	4.3	3.4	2.2	3.8
32	4.2	3.1	2.2	3.6
33	4.0	2.8	2.1	3.4
34	3.8	2.4	2.1	3.2
35	3.5	2.2	2.0	2.9
36	3.1	1.9	1.9	2.6
37	2.8	1.7	1.8	2.3
38	2.5	1.5	1.7	2.1
39	2.2	1.3	1.6	1.9
40	1.9	1.2	1.5	1.7
41	1.7	1.0	1.5	1.5
42	1.6	0.9	1.4	1.4
43	1.4	0.8	1.3	1.3
44	1.3	0.8	1.2	1.2
45	1.2	0.8	1.1	1.1
46	1.0	0.7	1.0	1.0
47	0.9	0.6	1.0	0.9
48	0.8	0.6	0.9	0.8
49	0.7	0.6	0.8	0.7
50	0.6	0.6	0.8	0.6
51	0.5	0.6	0.7	0.6
52	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.5
53	0.4	0.6	0.6	0.5
54	0.3	0.7	0.5	0.4
55	0.2	0.7	0.5	0.4
56	0.2	0.7	0.5	0.4
57	0.2	0.8	0.4	0.4
58	0.1	0.9	0.4	0.4
59	0.1	1.0	0.4	0.4
60	0.1	1.1	0.3	0.4
61	0.1	1.2	0.3	0.4
62	0.0	1.2	0.3	0.4
63	0.0	1.2	0.3	0.4
64	0.0	1.2	0.3	0.4
65	0.0	1.2	0.3	0.4
66	0.0	1.1	0.2	0.3
67	0.0	1.1	0.2	0.3
68	0.0	1.0	0.2	0.3
69	0.0	0.9	0.2	0.3
70	0.0	0.9	0.2	0.3
71	0.0	0.8	0.2	0.2
72	0.0	0.7	0.1	0.2
73	0.0	0.6	0.1	0.2
74	0.0	0.6	0.1	0.2
75	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.2
76	0.0	0.5	0.1	0.1
77	0.0	0.4	0.1	0.1
78	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.1
79	0.0	0.3	0.1	0.1
80	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1
81	0.0	0.2	0.1	0.1
82	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
83	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
84	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
85	0.0	0.1	0.0	0.0
86	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
87	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
88	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
89	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
90 and over	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0
Note: An 'other' category, of which the definition has varied over time, is not shown. Source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.

For the short-term future, the Advisory Council on Economic Growth (2016) recently recommended that along with the increase in overall immigration levels, the relative proportion of economic-category immigration admissions should increase.^Note  Recent consultations undertaken by IRCC also revealed that some stakeholders desired as much as 70% of annual admissions to come from the economic stream (IRCC 2017c). Such a proportional increase in economic immigrant admissions could cause the immigrant age distribution to become even more concentrated in the core working ages. However, IRCC did not release specific targets by category of admission in its most recent immigration plan (IRCC 2017a).

There is also evidence that greater emphasis could be placed on transitioning international students from non-permanent to permanent residents. In 2016, the federal government announced reforms to the Express Entry program to make it easier for international students to become permanent residents in Canada following graduation (Zilio and Chiose 2016).^Note  The Advisory Council on Economic Growth (2016) has also recently put forth the key recommendation that Canada “qualify more international students for permanent residency” (p. 2). A proportional increase of more recent university graduates in immigration admissions could also alter the age distribution of immigrants, providing a slight “rejuvenating” effect. Again, however, IRCC provided no concrete targets in terms of admissions in this regard in its most recent immigration plan.

Other factors such as the general aging of the world population, and in turn, the aging of the population of immigrants, are expected to continue in the coming decades (United Nations 2016), and could also impact the distribution of immigrants to Canada in the long-term. Due to the high level of uncertainty associated with the age distribution of immigrants in both the short and long term, it was determined that the most credible assumption would be to hold constant the age and sex distribution of immigrates observed within each province/territory over the last 10 years of historical data.

Furthermore, we did not find any information that would justify an assumption representing a marked change from the geographic distribution of immigrants observed recently. As seen in Figure A5.3, beginning in the early 2000s, there was a substantial shift in the geographic distribution of immigrants to Canada, with levels decreasing in Ontario, Quebec and British Columbia and increasing in other provinces, particularly Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. In more recent years, the share of immigrants selecting Nova Scotia or New Brunswick as their intended destination have also increased (while still accounting for less than 2% of all immigrants each).

Description for Figure A5.3



Data table for Figure A5.3
Distribution (percent) of immigrants to Canada according to the province or territory of destination, 1980 to 2018
Table summary
This table displays the results of Distribution (percent) of immigrants to Canada according to the province or territory of destination. The information is grouped by Year (appearing as row headers), N.L., P.E.I., N.S., N.B., Que., Ont., Man., Sask., Alta., B.C., Y.T., N.W.T. and Nvt., calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

Year	N.L.	P.E.I.	N.S.	N.B.	Que.	Ont.	Man.	Sask.	Alta.	B.C.	Y.T.	N.W.T.	Nvt.
	percent
1980	0.38	0.13	1.13	0.84	15.75	43.51	5.37	2.52	13.15	17.08	0.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1981	0.37	0.10	1.09	0.77	16.46	42.80	4.18	1.88	15.03	17.16	0.06	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1982	0.34	0.14	1.04	0.62	17.62	43.78	4.07	1.76	14.81	15.68	0.09	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1983	0.31	0.12	0.93	0.62	18.37	44.91	4.46	1.95	11.98	16.20	0.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1984	0.34	0.12	1.17	0.68	16.59	47.06	4.42	2.44	12.10	14.95	0.08	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1985	0.38	0.13	1.15	0.72	17.65	48.34	4.04	2.26	10.65	14.54	0.08	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1986	0.28	0.17	1.10	0.64	19.59	50.07	3.77	1.87	9.74	12.65	0.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1987	0.30	0.11	0.80	0.42	17.65	55.76	3.15	1.39	7.87	12.44	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1988	0.25	0.09	0.80	0.42	15.84	55.05	3.09	1.36	8.67	14.33	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1989	0.24	0.08	0.77	0.47	17.73	54.63	3.20	1.12	8.44	13.22	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1990	0.26	0.08	0.73	0.39	18.97	53.03	3.08	1.10	8.82	13.47	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1991	0.27	0.06	0.65	0.30	22.32	51.59	2.43	1.06	7.33	13.92	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1992	0.31	0.06	0.93	0.30	19.16	54.64	2.00	0.99	6.98	14.54	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1993	0.31	0.06	1.18	0.27	17.51	52.58	1.89	0.93	7.24	17.91	0.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1994	0.25	0.07	1.55	0.28	12.51	52.43	1.84	1.01	8.03	21.91	0.07	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1995	0.27	0.08	1.68	0.30	12.79	54.49	1.68	0.91	6.76	20.95	0.05	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1996	0.26	0.07	1.43	0.32	13.18	52.97	1.74	0.80	6.15	23.01	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1997	0.19	0.07	1.31	0.31	12.93	54.50	1.71	0.80	5.94	22.15	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1998	0.23	0.08	1.17	0.42	15.28	53.05	1.72	0.90	6.42	20.65	0.04	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
1999	0.22	0.07	0.84	0.35	15.35	54.84	1.96	0.91	6.37	19.02	0.03	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period	Note ..: not available for a specific reference period
2000	0.18	0.08	0.71	0.33	14.29	58.70	2.04	0.83	6.31	16.46	0.04	0.03	0.01
2001	0.16	0.05	0.68	0.32	15.00	59.31	1.83	0.68	6.55	15.36	0.04	0.03	0.01
2002	0.18	0.05	0.62	0.31	16.41	58.32	2.01	0.73	6.45	14.87	0.03	0.02	0.01
2003	0.16	0.07	0.67	0.30	17.87	54.09	2.94	0.75	7.16	15.92	0.04	0.03	0.00
2004	0.25	0.13	0.75	0.34	18.76	53.05	3.15	0.82	6.99	15.70	0.04	0.03	0.00
2005	0.19	0.13	0.74	0.42	16.52	53.59	3.09	0.81	7.40	17.07	0.03	0.02	0.00
2006	0.20	0.22	1.03	0.65	17.76	50.03	3.99	1.08	8.23	16.72	0.04	0.03	0.00
2007	0.23	0.42	1.07	0.69	19.10	47.03	4.63	1.49	8.81	16.46	0.04	0.04	0.01
2008	0.25	0.59	1.07	0.75	18.28	44.85	4.54	1.96	9.79	17.80	0.05	0.04	0.02
2009	0.24	0.70	0.95	0.76	19.62	42.38	5.36	2.73	10.71	16.43	0.04	0.07	0.00
2010	0.25	0.92	0.85	0.76	19.23	42.08	5.63	2.71	11.63	15.74	0.05	0.12	0.01
2011	0.28	0.70	0.86	0.79	20.80	39.99	6.42	3.60	12.45	13.99	0.03	0.10	0.01
2012	0.28	0.43	0.91	0.86	21.34	38.45	5.16	4.33	14.00	14.05	0.06	0.11	0.01
2013	0.32	0.39	0.98	0.78	20.08	39.98	5.06	4.12	14.13	13.98	0.12	0.06	0.00
2014	0.35	0.63	1.02	1.09	19.30	36.79	6.24	4.55	16.33	13.51	0.12	0.06	0.01
2015	0.41	0.44	1.25	0.95	18.01	38.12	5.48	4.61	17.36	13.15	0.10	0.08	0.01
2016	0.40	0.78	1.85	1.58	17.96	37.12	5.68	5.01	16.60	12.85	0.07	0.06	0.01
2017	0.40	0.80	1.60	1.30	18.30	39.10	5.10	5.10	14.70	13.40	0.10	0.10	0.00
2018	0.50	0.70	1.90	1.40	15.90	42.80	4.70	4.80	13.10	14.00	0.10	0.10	0.00
.. not available for a specific reference period Source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.

Trends in the geographic distribution of immigrants tend to be tied to economic conditions in the respective regions which are very difficult to predict. Changes to immigration programs targeted at certain provinces and territories, such as the Provincial Nominee Program (PNP), could also warrant a modification to the geographic distribution assumption. Recently, immigrant service providers, stakeholders, economists and the public have called for even greater dispersion of immigrants away from the Toronto metropolitan area in particular and to Canada’s less urban regions more generally in order to improve the economic outcomes of immigrants themselves and to better address regional labour and demographic needs (Riddell et al. 2016; Pelley 2017; IRCC 2016; 2017c; Griffith 2017).

Recently, there have been efforts from both federal and provincial governments to increase immigration (and immigrant retention) to Atlantic Canada in particular:

• In 2017, the Federal Government launched the Atlantic Immigration Pilot Program to “test innovative approaches to permanent immigration to attract and retain skilled immigrants to meet labour market needs in the region.” (IRCC 2017b, p. 16). However, no precise targets are attached to the Atlantic Immigration Pilot Program, nor is there an assurance it will continue in the future beyond its pilot state.
• In her November 2017 Speech From the Throne, Lt.-Gov. Antoinette Perry announced a goal of increasing the population of Prince Edward Island to 160,000 by 2022, to be achieved in part through various efforts that aim to maximize retention rates for new immigrants (Bissett 2017; Prince Edward Island Speech From the Throne 2017). The PNP has generally been regarded as an important factor in the decreasing concentration of immigrants within Canada’s three most populous provinces (Bonikowska et al. 2015). However, the program has been less successful for Prince Edward Island in particular, where 90% of the province’s new permanent residents are PNPs: It was found that between 2008 and 2013, the province retained less than one-third of the immigrants originally destined there (Van Huytsee 2016).
• In November 2017, the Premier of New Brunswick announced a new cabinet portfolio of Labour, Employment and Population Growth which will focus on attracting in-migration to the province through various means (Bundale 2017).

The success of these new approaches to increasing immigration to Atlantic Canada remains to be seen. The President of the Atlantic Canada Opportunities Agency recently remarked “The provincial government is listening to what the private sector has been saying for a couple years. We just can’t find the people” (Quoted by Bundale 2017). As was the case for the age and sex distribution of immigrants, the lack of clear signals that the geographic distribution will alter considerably in the future led us to develop a single assumption which continue short-term trends in the early years of the projection, gradually evolving to a longer-term historical average in the later years of the projection.

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