Chapter 7: Projection of non-permanent residents

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by Jonathan Chagnon, Nora Bohnert and Patrice Dion

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• Introduction
• Trends in the number of non-permanent residents
• Methodology
• Assumptions
• References
• Notes

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Introduction

Flows of temporary migrants have increased in numerous industrialized countries over the last decade. There are many reasons for this phenomenon, including the emergence of new temporary worker programs (Castles and Miller 2009), the entry of many countries into economic communities such as the European Union (Ibid) and more vigorous efforts to attract international students (Ibid; Florida 2005).

Canada is no exception. In recent years, the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs) has grown rapidly in Canada, mainly a result of the increasing number of temporary residence permits issued to workers. Despite these trends the admission of temporary workers relates more to federal government policies than to demographic factors; as a result, projecting future trends in non-permanent residents remains a difficult exercise.

Trends in the number of non-permanent residents

At Statistics Canada, data on non-permanent residents have been available since 1971. However, changes in accounting methods render it difficult to compare data collected pre- and post-1996.

The net number of NPRs to Canada fluctuated substantially between 1996/1997 and 2011/2012 (Figure 7.1). It has nevertheless remained positive since 1998/1999, peaking at nearly 72,000 in 2008/2009. In 2011/2012, the net number of NPRs was about 56,000, representing a non-negligible proportion of the growth of the Canadian population (14%) for that period.

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Overall, the total number of non-permanent residents present in Canada almost tripled between 1996 and 2011, rising from 243,700 to 684,200 (Figure 7.2). This growth has become particularly rapid since 2007.

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The majority of NPRs admitted to Canada tend to settle in just four provinces: Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia and Alberta (Figure 7.3). The proportion of NPRs settling in Ontario or Quebec have generally declined over the past 20 years, while it has substantially increased in British Columbia and particularly Alberta, where the proportion has doubled.

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Individuals are granted temporary residence in Canada for various reasons. NPRs can be divided, for example, into four major categories: foreign workers, international students, refugees^Note 1 and ministerial permit holders. At the turn of the 21st century, workers, students and refugees each accounted for about a third of all NPRs (Figure 7.4). However, the number of persons admitted under the worker category grew rapidly during subsequent periods, reaching  58%  in 2012.

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Generally stable between 2003 and 2009, the number of international students has increased considerably in the subsequent years, from nearly 150,000 in 2009 to 187,700 in 2012.^Note 2 The proportion of international students in Canada’s total NPR population nevertheless declined from its peak of 38% in 2004 to 27% in 2012.

From about a third of all NPRs in 2003, the proportion of refugees decreased steadily to 14% in 2012. Over the past 10 years, the number of ministerial permit holders has represented no more than 1.1% of all NPRs.

The distribution of NPRs by category of admission varies widely from province to province (Figure 7.5). For example, in 2012, more than three-quarters of NPRs who had settled in Saskatchewan, Alberta and the territories were temporary workers, compared with about one-half in Nova Scotia, Quebec and Ontario. Nova Scotia was the only province in which more than half of the NPRs were international students. More than 20% of the NPRs admitted to Quebec and Ontario in 2012 were refugees, the highest proportions in the country.

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Various factors suggest that the number of NPRs could increase over the next few years in Canada. According to recent labour projections, the labour force growth rate is likely to decrease in the coming years (Martel et al. 2011).^Note 3 This situation could lead to an increase in the number of NPRs as a short-term response by the government to possible sectoral labour shortages. The temporary admission of foreign workers is intended in part to address these shortages and “[…] meet acute and short-term needs in the labour market that could not be filled by the domestic labour force.” (Citizenship and Immigration Canada 2013). Moreover, in contrast to the number of immigrants, there are no targets associated with the annual number of non-permanent residents admitted to Canada, and therefore the number of NPRs is likely to fluctuate substantially from year to year, particularly in response to the country’s economic situation.

As with the number of foreign workers, the number of international students admitted to Canada has generally increased over the years. Because they have Canadian educational credentials, and because they have interacted with other Canadian students, international students are well prepared for the Canadian labour market and tend to integrate rapidly into Canadian society (Citizenship and Immigration Canada 2013). As a result, many measures have been taken to attract and retain international students, such as the Work Permits and Post-Graduation Work Permits Program, which allows them to acquire off-campus experience (Ibid).

A few years ago, Citizenship and Immigration Canada (CIC) also introduced the Canadian Experience Class (CEC) program to facilitate the retention of “skilled individuals who have already demonstrated their ability to integrate into the Canadian labour market”; this program was enhanced in 2013. The CEC allows temporary foreign workers and international student graduates with Canadian work experience to apply for permanent residence. For some foreigners, it is an alternative and potentially faster way of gaining admittance to Canada as an immigrant. On January 2, 2013, the criteria were modified to allow candidates to apply following 12 months of full-time work experience in Canada (instead of the 24 months previously required). In addition, the period for meeting these requirements was extended to a maximum of 36 months. CIC notes that the CEC is currently the fastest-growing immigration program (Citizenship and Immigration Canada 2013).

The Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), recently negotiated between Canada and the European Union, could also have an impact on the number of applications for temporary residence. The agreement is expected to contain a provision on worker mobility and skills recognition that will ease certain rules to facilitate the temporary entry of certain classes of workers.^Note 4

On the other hand, there are factors that could reduce the number of NPRs, or at least slow the growth thereof, over the next few years. For example, changes in and tightening of the Temporary Foreign Workers Program’s admission rules,^Note 5 announced in the 2013/2014 federal budget, will be put in place to ensure that Canadians are given the first chance at available jobs. These measures are intended to ensure that Canadian workers take priority over foreign workers in hiring decisions, and that, in the event that temporary foreign workers are needed, employers have a plan to eventually replace them with Canadian workers (Economic Action Plan 2013).^Note 6 More recently, the federal government announced further revisions to the program, mainly with the aim of “restricting access to the Temporary Foreign Worker Program” (Government of Canada 2014). These revisions, some of which will be phased in over several years, are intended primarily to restrict the number of admissions of unskilled temporary workers in industries and regions where unemployment rates are relatively high. Although the report does not specify targets, the combined effect of these numerous revisions may be to stabilize or reduce the number of temporary workers in the future.^Note 7

Methodology

The NPR population is projected in parallel with the permanent resident population. However, unlike the permanent resident population, the NPR population is not subjected to the risks of dying or emigrating during the projection. In addition, immigration does not affect the number of NPRs, since immigrants are, by definition, permanent residents. With regard to births, since children born in Canada are automatically Canadian citizens, regardless of the parents’ status (permanent residents, NPRs or visitors), the fertility of female NPRs only affects the projected population of permanent residents.^Note 8 Consequently, the growth of the NPR population depends solely on the annual net counts, that is, the difference between the number of NPRs who enter Canada and the number who leave. Hence the assumptions concerning the evolution of the NPR population apply to the annual net number of NPRs.

In addition to the flow volumes, the characteristics of people entering and leaving the country have to be determined. In this regard, a very simple assumption is made: every person who leaves is assumed to be replaced by a person of the same sex and age and living in the same province or territory. Canada’s NPR population is therefore projected as a stable population that does not age and always keeps a similar age structure, even becoming a stationary population, with an invariable count in years when the projected annual net number is zero.

Assumptions

The projection assumptions regarding NPRs are based on recent trends, the current demographic situation and recent policies of the Canadian government. Three assumptions were developed; this aspect differs from previous editions, which had only one assumption for the NPR component.

The medium assumption has an initial net number of NPRs equal to the average annual net number from 2002/2003 to 2011/2012 (Figure 7.6). The projected net number then declines linearly from 2012/2013 to reach zero in 2021/2022. This level is kept constant until the end of the period. The provincial/territorial distribution of this net number and its age and sex composition are the same as those observed during the period 2010 to 2012. Under this assumption, the total number of non-permanent residents in Canada would reach 864,600 in 2021 and would remain constant for the remainder of the projection (Figure 7.7 and Table 7.1).

Description for figure 7.6

Description for figure 7.7

The high-growth assumption is an extension of recent trends in the net number of NPRs and its composition. In fact, it suggests in broad terms a larger increase in the number of temporary workers to address specific needs in the labour market. The initial annual net number, higher than in the medium assumption, is equal to the observed average annual net number from 2007/2008 to 2011/2012 (Figure 7.6). It also declines less rapidly than in the medium assumption, reaching zero in 2031/2032. This level is kept constant until the end of the period. Under this assumption, the total number of non-permanent residents would reach 1,144,300 by 2031 and would remain constant for the remainder of the projection (Figure 7.7).

In this assumption, the distribution of NPRs among the provinces and territories takes account of the differential growth of the NPR population based on admission class and uneven distribution across Canada, as previously noted. The method involves first projecting the national net numbers by NPR category and then weighting the geographic distribution by category. Initially, the net is distributed by NPR category based on the estimated average proportions for 2010 to 2012, which are then linearly extrapolated over a five-year period based on estimated changes over the last 10 years. Then the nets by category were distributed across the provinces and territories on the basis of the observed average proportions for the period from 2010 to 2012 (Table 7.1). Compared with the medium assumption, the method increases the proportion of temporary workers in the NPR population (Table 7.2), thus favouring the western provinces, where they are more heavily concentrated.

Lastly, the low-growth assumption simply keeps the total number of non-permanent residents and their distribution across the country identical to what was observed in 2013. It reflects recent changes in the Temporary Foreign Worker Program that could result in the stabilization of the number of non-permanent residents in Canada over the course of the projection.

References

Castles, S and M.J. Miller. 2009. The Age of Migration: International Population Movements in the Modern World, 4th edition, Guilford Press, 370 pages.

Citizenship and Immigration Canada. 2012. Facts and Figures 2012: Immigration Overview – Permanent and Temporary Residents.

Citizenship and Immigration Canada. 2013. Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration 2013.

Economic Action Plan 2013. Jobs Growth and Long-Term Prosperity, by the Honourable James M. Flaherty, P.C., M.P. Minister of Finance, March 21, 2013. www.budget.gc.ca/2013/doc/plan/budget2013-eng.pdf.

Employment and Social Development Canada. 2013. Overhauling the Temporary Foreign Worker Program: Putting Canadians First, http://www.esdc.gc.ca/eng/jobs/foreign_workers/reform/index.shtml, site accessed December 18, 2013.

Florida, R.L. 2005. The Flight of the Creative Class: The New Global Competition for Talent, Harper Business, 326 pages. 

Government of Canada. 2013. Technical Summary of Final Negotiated Outcomes: Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement, http://actionplan.gc.ca, site accessed November 25, 2013.

Government of Canada. 2014. Overhauling the Temporary Foreign Worker Program: Putting Canadians First, WP-191-06-14E. 

Martel, L., É. Caron Malenfant, J.D. Morency, A. Lebel, A. Bélanger and N. Bastien. 2011. “Projected trends to 2031 for the Canadian labour force”, Canadian Economic Observer, Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 11-010.

Notes