Education, Learning and Training Research Paper Series
Geographic mobility of Canadian bachelor’s degree graduates,
2012 to 2021
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Introduction
The geographical mobility of postsecondary graduates, which refers to the movements between their place of residence prior to postsecondary studies, their place of study, and their place of residence after graduation, is of great interest to provincial and territorial governments. Not only is education an area of provincial and territorial jurisdiction, but graduates also comprise a qualified workforce—skilled workers who can contribute to many aspects of communities.
Students and graduates moving from one province or territory to another affects the investment required in postsecondary education and other related public services, the composition of the student population, postsecondary education funding from tuition fees, and the availability of skilled workers in each province and territory.
The ability to measure and track the mobility of postsecondary graduates over time is critical as it is often the effect of education policies (program offerings, interprovincial agreements, ease or difficulty of transferring skills, tuition fees, etc.) and the economic health of the provinces and territories (e.g., employment and unemployment rates, wages), which also vary over time. This would make it possible to assess the effectiveness of certain policies and programs and adjust them, if necessary.
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Methodology and data sources
The Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform (ELMLP) integrates anonymized data from the Postsecondary Student Information System (PSIS) with tax data from the T1 Family File (T1FF). Statistics Canada used the platform to publish new tablesNote on the geographical mobility of Canadian undergraduateNote university (bachelor’s) degree holders from 2012 to 2021. PSIS data are used to determine the province or territory of residence before (“origin” in the tables) and during studies (“location of study” in the tables). T1FF data are used to establish the place of residence one year after graduation (“destination” in the tables). The methodologyNote used to create the new tables has many advantages over the methodology used in previously published studies.Note This method not only provides information on the place of residence before, during and after studies, it can also produce large sample sizes for most provincesNote and track mobility trends year after year. However, at the pan-Canadian level the methodology is limited to examining undergraduate degrees.Note
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This article uses new data published by Statistics Canada to shed light on the following questions: Which provinces are the most popular destinations for postsecondary students? What proportion of bachelor’s degree holders do the provinces retain and integrate into their labour market one year after graduation? In which provinces are there net gains and net losses of graduates, i.e., skilled workers? And especially, what are the trends over time?
More than one in three Nova Scotia graduates is from another province
Which provinces attract the most students from other provinces for higher education? Although the vast majority of students who attend a province’s postsecondary institutions come from that province (62% to 95% depending on the province and year), Chart 1 shows that the proportion of graduates in a province who come from another province (also known as “out-of-province students”) varies considerably from one province to another.
The Atlantic provinces have the highest proportions of graduates from another province. Nova Scotia ranks first: more than one in every three graduates is an out-of-province student. While there is high mobility between the Atlantic provinces, the largest source of students from outside Nova Scotia and New Brunswick is Ontario. Furthermore, Manitoba, Quebec and Ontario have the lowest proportions of out-of-province students (between 5% and 7%, depending on the year). Lastly, the proportion of out-of-province students in Saskatchewan, Alberta and British Columbia hovers around 10% every year.
Generally speaking, out-of-province students are mostly from neighbouring provinces, and their proportions have been relatively stable over the years, except for Prince Edward Island, where the proportion rose slightly over the period.
Data table for Chart 1
| Province of study | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| percent | ||||||||||
| Source: Statistics Canada, Table 37-10-0289-01. | ||||||||||
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 15 | 14 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 13 |
| Prince Edward Island | 18 | 15 | 12 | 19 | 25 | 25 | 22 | 28 | 28 | 22 |
| Nova Scotia | 36 | 35 | 36 | 38 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 36 | 35 | 35 |
| New Brunswick | 26 | 26 | 28 | 23 | 24 | 26 | 30 | 29 | 27 | 28 |
| Quebec | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Ontario | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 |
| Manitoba | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 5 |
| Saskatchewan | 10 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 14 | 13 | 11 |
| Alberta | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 10 |
| British Columbia | 8 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 10 |
Maritimers are most likely to leave their province to obtain their bachelor’s degree in another province
Education-related mobility can be examined from another angle: Are students in certain provinces more likely to complete their undergraduate studies outside their home province? Chart 2 shows that the population of Prince Edward Island is most likely to complete their undergraduate studies in another province (30% to 45%, depending on the year), with Nova Scotia and New Brunswick being the main destinations.
In contrast, 5% to 6% of students in Quebec and Ontario complete their undergraduate studies in another province. Most Quebec students who head out of province to complete their undergraduate studies go to Ontario, while the choice of province for Ontario students is wider and includes Quebec, its neighbouring province, as well as Nova Scotia, Alberta, British Columbia and New Brunswick.
In terms of trends over the years, New Brunswick saw a slight increase in the proportion of its population that earns a bachelor’s degree in another province, mainly in Nova Scotia and Ontario (from 20% in 2012 to 24% in 2021). Generally speaking, most students who choose to study in another province look to neighbouring provinces or to Ontario.
Data table for Chart 2
| Province of origin | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| percent | ||||||||||
| Source: Statistics Canada, Table 37-10-0289-01. | ||||||||||
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 11 |
| Prince Edward Island | 45 | 39 | 30 | 36 | 40 | 42 | 37 | 41 | 40 | 34 |
| Nova Scotia | 19 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 20 | 17 | 19 | 19 |
| New Brunswick | 20 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 22 | 21 | 25 | 23 | 22 | 24 |
| Quebec | 6 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Ontario | 5 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Manitoba | 9 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 10 |
| Saskatchewan | 14 | 15 | 14 | 15 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 13 |
| Alberta | 13 | 12 | 13 | 13 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 14 |
| British Columbia | 12 | 11 | 12 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
Of the roughly 200 graduates per year whose origin is one of the three Canadian territories, the vast majority study outside their territory.Note More than half of these graduates earn their bachelor’s degree in Alberta or British Columbia (between 51% and 66%, depending on the year), with the rest (between 18% and 30%, depending on the year), complete their undergraduate studies in Saskatchewan or Ontario.
The majority of graduates who leave their home province to obtain a bachelor’s degree leave their province of study within a year of graduating
The retention rate to some extent measures how attractive the province of study is for new graduates, who constitute a skilled workforce. The charts below show the retention rate of graduates by province of study and province of origin. Chart 3 shows graduates who studied in their province of origin, while Chart 4 shows graduates who studied in another province. A comparison of the two charts shows that retention rates are much higher (79% and higher) for graduates who study in their home province than for graduates who earn their bachelor’s degree in another province (between 10% and 41%). Since the difference is critical to retention rates, these two populations are studied separately to the extent possible.
The Atlantic provinces have the lowest retention rates of home province graduates (Chart 3). However, the rates tend to increase over the years, moving closer to the rates of the other provinces. In 2012, Alberta had the highest retention rate (40%) of out-of-province graduates (Chart 4), though it fell to 29% in 2021. Meanwhile, a reverse trend was observed in British Columbia and Nova Scotia: from 2012 to 2021, retention rates of out-of-province graduates rose from 17% to 31% in British Columbia and from 13% to 19% in Nova Scotia.
Data table for Chart 3
| Province of study | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| percent | ||||||||||
| Source: Statistics Canada, Table 37-10-0289-01. | ||||||||||
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 87 | 85 | 87 | 89 | 86 | 87 | 83 | 88 | 90 | 89 |
| Prince Edward Island | 83 | 82 | 84 | 84 | 86 | 88 | 90 | 89 | 90 | 93 |
| Nova Scotia | 79 | 81 | 83 | 84 | 87 | 89 | 88 | 91 | 93 | 93 |
| New Brunswick | 82 | 80 | 81 | 83 | 88 | 90 | 89 | 89 | 92 | 92 |
| Quebec | 97 | 97 | 97 | 97 | 97 | 98 | 98 | 99 | 99 | 99 |
| Ontario | 96 | 96 | 96 | 97 | 97 | 98 | 98 | 98 | 97 | 97 |
| Manitoba | 93 | 92 | 93 | 93 | 94 | 94 | 94 | 94 | 93 | 94 |
| Saskatchewan | 94 | 95 | 93 | 95 | 93 | 93 | 93 | 92 | 94 | 93 |
| Alberta | 96 | 96 | 96 | 96 | 95 | 96 | 96 | 96 | 95 | 95 |
| British Columbia | 94 | 94 | 95 | 96 | 96 | 96 | 97 | 97 | 98 | 97 |
Data table for Chart 4
| Province of study | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| percent | ||||||||||
| Source: Statistics Canada, Table 37-10-0289-01. | ||||||||||
| Newfoundland and Labrador | 27 | 23 | 24 | 27 | 18 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 13 |
| Prince Edward Island | 30 | 27 | 20 | 31 | 37 | 28 | 21 | 21 | 33 | 23 |
| Nova Scotia | 13 | 14 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 19 |
| New Brunswick | 14 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 20 | 16 | 14 |
| Quebec | 22 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 25 | 23 | 23 |
| Ontario | 26 | 24 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 27 | 28 | 26 | 24 | 23 |
| Manitoba | 34 | 33 | 37 | 27 | 30 | 21 | 28 | 31 | 31 | 19 |
| Saskatchewan | 27 | 22 | 36 | 35 | 39 | 26 | 33 | 26 | 30 | 26 |
| Alberta | 40 | 41 | 39 | 37 | 33 | 33 | 32 | 30 | 27 | 29 |
| British Columbia | 17 | 24 | 29 | 27 | 32 | 31 | 32 | 35 | 32 | 31 |
Graduates who studied in their home province are more likely to leave their province of study if they were in STEM programs compared with those in BHASE programs
A detailed analysis of retention rates by field of study could be the topic of its own article and is beyond the scope of this study. However, it can be said that the retention rates of graduates who study in their home province are generally higher in BHASENote fields than in STEMNote fields.
Retention rates of out-of-province graduates were higher in STEM fields in Ontario, Manitoba, Alberta and British Columbia for most years examined. However, in Newfoundland and Labrador and Saskatchewan, these rates were higher in BHASE fields. In the remaining provinces, there was no clear difference in the retention rates for out-of-province graduates in STEM and BHASE fields.
Meanwhile, the retention rates of home province graduates are slightly higher among women than men in some provinces such as Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The same was true for out-of-province graduates in Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia. There were no notable or constant differences in the retention rates of women and men over the years in the other provinces.
Another question could be whether the age at graduation could affect retention rates. Among graduates whose home province is the same as their province of study, Ontario, Manitoba and Alberta were slightly more likely over the years to retain their youngest graduates aged 20 to 24 compared with graduates aged 25 to 34. In the other provinces, there were no particular trends.
For graduates who studied in another province, the retention rates of graduates aged 25 to 34 were higher in Nova Scotia and Quebec compared with those of younger graduates aged 20 to 24. However, the opposite was true in Alberta and British Columbia, where retention rates over the years were generally slightly higher for the youngest age group than for older graduates.
Alberta’s net gain in graduates declined between 2012 and 2021 and was almost zero from 2018 on
By comparing the number of graduates living in a province or territory one year after graduation with the number of graduates originally from that province or territory (regardless of place of study), the net gain or loss of graduates—i.e., skilled workers—can be calculated by province or territory.
Chart 5 shows the relative gain or loss of graduates per year in each province. The 17% gain in graduates observed in Alberta in 2012 fell to 0% in 2021. A downward trend was also observed in Saskatchewan over the same period, while Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and British Columbia saw an upward trend from 2012 to 2021.
Data table for Chart 5
| Province | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| percent | ||||||||||
| Source: Statistics Canada, Table 37-10-0289-01. | ||||||||||
| Newfoundland and Labrador | -7 | -11 | -7 | -5 | -11 | -9 | -14 | -11 | -7 | -10 |
| Prince Edward Island | -21 | -20 | -19 | -15 | -7 | -9 | -6 | -7 | -1 | 2 |
| Nova Scotia | -12 | -9 | -7 | -5 | -3 | -1 | -2 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| New Brunswick | -15 | -17 | -16 | -15 | -10 | -8 | -8 | -3 | -5 | -5 |
| Quebec | -1 | -1 | -2 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ontario | -2 | -2 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 |
| Manitoba | -4 | -4 | -3 | -5 | -4 | -5 | -4 | -5 | -5 | -6 |
| Saskatchewan | 2 | 3 | -2 | -1 | -4 | -4 | -2 | -5 | -4 | -7 |
| Alberta | 17 | 16 | 12 | 7 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | -2 | 0 |
| British Columbia | -3 | -2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 5 |
Year after year, the territories had the largest net gains in graduates, though these gains did decline over the years (from 66% in 2012 to 20% in 2021). The number of people who reported one of the three territories as their place of residence pre-studies remained relatively stable over the period, but the number of graduates who lived in the territories one year after graduation declined.
Conclusion
Postsecondary student mobility has a great impact on the provinces and territories where they move during and after their studies. Mobility plays a decisive role in determining the investment required in postsecondary education and other related public services and in the availability of skilled workers. Being able to measure and track this mobility over time is essential as it sometimes depends on the education policies and economic health of the provinces and territories, which also vary over time.
New data published by Statistics Canada show that geographical mobility of students is high in the Atlantic provinces, both in terms of out-of-province students coming in and in-province students leaving to do undergraduate studies in another province. In addition, the retention rates of these provinces are lower than those of the other provinces but tended to increase over the 2012-to-2021 period.
Mobility was low in Quebec and Ontario and trends were quite stable from 2012 to 2021; graduates who studied in these provinces were mostly in-province students, and retention rates were among the highest in Canada.
Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia fall between the Atlantic provinces and Quebec and Ontario for various postsecondary mobility indicators. Alberta had the highest net gain in graduates of all the provinces in 2012, but by 2021, it had disappeared.
Almost all bachelor’s degree holders in the territories leave their home territory to study. The territories had a significant net gain in graduates from 2012 to 2021, although it shrank over the years.
This article is a first step in tracking the geographical mobility of bachelor’s degree holders over time. Many other aspects of mobility could be the subject of future studies, such as the impact of economic conditions in a province on the mobility of graduates, the influence of mother tongue,Note the possible return of graduates who left one year after graduating, retention rates by postsecondary institution, and employment income by whether or not the graduate changed provinces to study or work. It would also be interesting to analyze the mobility of graduates in the provinces and territories with other educational credentials (college certificates and diplomas, professional degrees, master’s degrees and doctorates) for whom PSIS data on place of residence before their studies is of sufficient quality. Lastly, it would be very useful to study the mobility of international students (based on a different methodology), particularly given the current context where postsecondary education funding and the housing shortage are issues of current interest.
Authors
Sylvie Brunet, George Marshall and Youssouf Azmi are all analysts at Statistics Canada’s Canadian Centre for Education Statistics.
References
Burbidge, J. and R. Finnie. 2000. “The Inter-Provincial Mobility of Baccalaureate Graduates: Who Moves and When.” Canadian Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 23, No. 3, p. 377–402.
Frenette, M. and T. Handler. 2024. “Retention and recruitment of young skilled workers: Results by province and territory.” Economic and Social Reports, Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 36-28-0001.
Narh, E. D. and M. Buzzelli. 2022. “Higher Education Student Migration in Canada: Interprovincial Structure and the Influence of Student Mother Tongue,” Canadian Journal of Regional Science, Vol. 45, No. 1, p. 36–47.
Statistics Canada. 2025a. Table 37-10-0289 “Number of Canadian undergraduate degree graduates, by location of study, origin, and destination one year after graduation,” Table 37-10-0290 “Retention rate of Canadian undergraduate degree graduates one year after graduation, by location of study, origin, field of study (STEM and BHASE groupings), and graduate characteristics” and Table 37-10-0291 “Retention rate of Canadian undergraduate degree graduates one year after graduation, by location of study, origin, field of study (Classification of instructional programs 2021) and graduate characteristics.”
Statistics Canada. 2025b. “Geographic mobility indicators of Canadian undergraduate degree holders,” Technical Reference Guides for the Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform (ELMLP), Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 37-20-0001.
Usher, A. 2021. “Inter-provincial Student Mobility.” Higher Education Strategy Associates [blog], August 31.
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