Economic and Social Reports
Retention and recruitment of young skilled workers: Results by province and territory

Abstract

A young skilled labour force can make important contributions to the economic, health, cultural and civic vitality of any community. Since Canada is a vast country with diverse job opportunities available in various locations, some provinces and territories may face challenges and opportunities in retaining and attracting young skilled talent. This article is the first to inform the issue by determining the share of youth who grew up in a certain province or territory and eventually obtained a postsecondary education but left to work in another province or territory (termed “skill loss”). Likewise, the article also looks at young skilled workers who entered a province or territory to work, as a share of that province or territory’s initial population of homegrown young skilled labour (termed “skill gain”). The findings suggest that net skill gains were highest (by far) in Nunavut, followed by the Northwest Territories and Yukon. Among the provinces, two were net skill “gainers” (Alberta and British Columbia). Net skill losses were particularly large in Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador, while smaller losses were registered in Nova Scotia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Quebec and Ontario registered very small net skill losses. In addition to being the only two provinces to benefit from the migration patterns of young skilled talent, Alberta and British Columbia were also less likely to provide a postsecondary education to their “leavers,” compared with the share of entrants who had already completed their postsecondary education elsewhere. British Columbia was, by far, the largest net gainer of medical degree graduates among the provinces, while British Columbia and Alberta were the largest net gainers of PhD graduates. These findings provide a starting point for discussions by provinces and territories around the issue of skill retention and recruitment among their youth populations.

Authors

Marc Frenette and Tomasz Handler are with the Social Analysis and Modelling Division, Analytical Studies and Modelling Branch, at Statistics Canada.

Introduction

Skilled labour is critical for the economic development of any community. Young highly skilled workers are often at the forefront of innovation, which fosters productivity and can help firms remain competitive in a global market. Skilled workers may also have positive spillover effects by transferring their knowledge to co-workers, clients and other members of the local economy. Having access to skilled talent that is young is also important for demographic reasons, especially when the local population is aging and faces a decline in working-age residents. Such demographic adjustments can yield benefits for the long-term economic sustainability of the community. Of course, the benefits of young skilled talent may reach beyond those in the economic realm. Any community needs skilled labour to meet the health care needs of its population. Communities also benefit from graduates in diverse fields for cultural, civic or other reasons.

However, communities may face challenges in retaining and attracting young skilled talent. This is because the demand for skilled labour may be increasing, based on recent evidence on the changing nature of work (Frenette, 2023). Canadian jobs have become increasingly non-routine and cognitive in nature—a long-term trend that has only accelerated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Large firms in big cities may have an advantage in recruiting top talent.

The issue is particularly important for the provinces and territories because education is within their jurisdiction. Indeed, provinces and territories invest in their homegrown residents through publicly funded childcare, elementary and secondary school, and often postsecondary education. Understanding how many young skilled people are lost or gained because of migration patterns between high school and the beginning of work can inform policy discussions on retaining and recruiting skilled labour. This is the objective of this article.^Note 

Specifically, the article begins by identifying the base population of high school-aged youth (based on the province or territory where they lived at age 16^Note ) from the T1 Family File (T1FF). Among this sample, only those who eventually obtained a postsecondary qualification from 2010 to 2017 in the Postsecondary Student Information System (PSIS) and did not appear in the PSIS two years after graduation were selected. Next, the province of work two years after postsecondary graduation was identified in the Longitudinal Worker File (LWF) and the T1FF.^Note  Comparing the province of work with the initial province of residence enables the calculation of skill losses and gains at the provincial and territorial level.^Note 

It is important to note that this article focuses on the propensity of provinces and territories to retain or recruit young skilled workers who were in Canada in their teen years and educated in Canada at the postsecondary level. Remaining shortages can potentially be bridged by foreign talent through the immigration system. However, understanding the migration patterns of young skilled domestic talent could form the basis for policy discussions about the reliance on foreign talent to fill labour shortages in provinces and territories.

The three territories and two provinces (Alberta and British Columbia) were the only net gainers of young skilled workers

Chart 1 suggests that, among the provinces, Alberta stood out as the largest net beneficiary of the migration of young skilled workers. The net gains in skilled talent registered by Alberta represented 22% of its initial population of young skilled individuals. British Columbia was also a net skill gainer (7%), while all other provinces were net skill losers. The losses were particularly large in Prince Edward Island (-25%), New Brunswick (-17%), and Newfoundland and Labrador (-17%), while smaller losses were registered in Nova Scotia (-10%), Manitoba (-8%) and Saskatchewan (-7%). Quebec and Ontario registered very small net skill losses (-2%).

Data table for Chart 1



Data table for chart 1
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for chart 1 Skill loss, Skill gain and Net skill loss or gain, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Skill loss	Skill gain	Net skill loss or gain
	percent
Newfoundland and Labrador	-27	10	-17
Prince Edward Island	-37	12	-25
Nova Scotia	-28	19	-10
New Brunswick	-29	11	-17
Quebec	-6	4	-2
Ontario	-8	6	-2
Manitoba	-18	10	-8
Saskatchewan	-22	15	-7
Alberta	-12	34	22
British Columbia	-16	22	7
Notes: The denominator for all estimates is the population of future postsecondary graduates (skilled labour) residing in the province during high school. The numerator is either the skilled labour leavers (loss) or entrants (gain) based on their province or territory of work two years after graduation. The sample includes the 2010 to 2017 cohorts of postsecondary graduates. Sources: Statistics Canada, Postsecondary Student Information System, T1 Family File and Longitudinal Worker File.

Although these are substantial losses and gains on the provincial front, the migration of young skilled talent affected the territories to a much greater extent. In fact, the results for the territories are so different that they warrant their own separate chart. While the three territories lost a substantial share of their young skilled talent, they also attracted an even larger share (Chart 2). The losses were larger in Yukon (-53%) and the Northwest Territories (-51%), compared with Nunavut (-17%); however, in all three cases, the gains far outweighed the losses. In the Northwest Territories and Yukon, the gains represented 96% and 92% of the original population of young skilled talent, respectively. As large as these gains were, they were less than half of what was registered in Nunavut (201%). Overall, the net gains in young skilled talent were highest in Nunavut (184%), followed by the Northwest Territories (45%) and Yukon (39%).

Data table for Chart 2



Data table for chart 2
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for chart 2 Skill loss, Skill gain and Net skill loss or gain, calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Skill loss	Skill gain	Net skill loss or gain
	percent
Yukon	-53	92	39
Northwest Territories	-51	96	45
Nunavut	-17	201	184
Notes: The denominator for all estimates is the population of future postsecondary graduates (skilled labour) residing in the territory during high school. The numerator is either the skilled labour leavers (loss) or entrants (gain) based on their province or territory of work two years after graduation. The sample includes the 2010 to 2017 cohorts of postsecondary graduates. Sources: Statistics Canada, Postsecondary Student Information System, T1 Family File and Longitudinal Worker File.

Of course, not all skill losses and gains are equal from a fiscal point of view. Postsecondary education is partially funded by the provinces.^Note  As a result, and all else equal, homegrown talent who leave the province to work elsewhere will be less costly to their home province if they obtained their postsecondary education elsewhere. Conversely, young skilled talent who end up working in a different province than their home province will be costlier to their home province if they obtained their postsecondary education in that province.

Chart 3 shows the percentage of leavers and entrants who completed postsecondary education before leaving or entering the province. A higher orange bar (indicating the percentage who obtained their postsecondary education prior to entering), compared with the blue bar (indicating the percentage who obtained their postsecondary education prior to leaving), will be less costly from a provincial perspective, all else equal.

In addition to being the only net skill gainers, Alberta and British Columbia were also less likely to provide a postsecondary education to their leavers, compared with the share of entrants who had already completed their postsecondary education elsewhere. However, Saskatchewan led the provinces on this front, with 60% of entrants having already completed their postsecondary education, while 33% of leavers graduated from postsecondary education prior to leaving. By contrast, Ontario was almost the mirror image of Saskatchewan: 63% of its leavers completed postsecondary education in Ontario prior to their departure, while 39% of entrants obtained their postsecondary education outside Ontario. Newfoundland and Labrador and Nova Scotia also had a substantially higher share of leavers who completed their postsecondary education in their home province, compared with the share of entrants who obtained their qualifications outside their host province.

Data table for Chart 3



Data table for chart 3
Table summary
This table displays the results of Data table for chart 3 Obtained highest completed level of postsecondary education before leaving and Obtained highest completed level of postsecondary education before entering , calculated using percent units of measure (appearing as column headers).

	Obtained highest completed level of postsecondary education before leaving	Obtained highest completed level of postsecondary education before entering
	percent
Newfoundland and Labrador	59	45
Prince Edward Island	31	43
Nova Scotia	52	40
New Brunswick	42	51
Quebec	57	54
Ontario	63	39
Manitoba	38	51
Saskatchewan	33	60
Alberta	37	55
British Columbia	42	49
Notes: The denominator for all estimates is the population of future postsecondary graduates (skilled labour) residing in the province during high school who either left (blue bars) or entered (orange bars) the province based on their province or territory of work two years after graduation. The numerator is either the skilled labour leavers or entrants who obtained their highest completed level of postsecondary education before leaving or entering based on their province or territory of work two years after graduation. The sample includes the 2010 to 2017 cohorts of postsecondary graduates. Sources: Statistics Canada, Postsecondary Student Information System, T1 Family File and Longitudinal Worker File.

British Columbia was the largest net gainer of medical degree graduates

Medical degree graduates are fairly mobile because of the competitive nature of medical school entrance and residency placement. As a result, all provinces except Quebec and Ontario lost a significant share of their homegrown future medical school graduates (Table 1). Quebec lost few of these individuals (-7%), perhaps owing to linguistic preferences (Quebec has the largest French-speaking population in the country by far). Ontario also fared relatively well on this front, registering the second-smallest percentage loss (-16%). Skill losses were more substantial in other provinces (from -32% in British Columbia to -63% in Prince Edward Island).^{Note   Note} 



Some provinces tended to recruit relatively more medical degree graduates. This was especially the case in British Columbia, having gained 62% of medical degree graduates. Thus, British Columbia registered a net gain of 30% of medical degree graduates, far surpassing any other province. Ontario stood in second place (a net gain of 2%), followed by Alberta (no net gain or loss). Small to moderate net skill losses were registered in Quebec (-2%) and Nova Scotia (-7%), while net skill losses were more substantial in other provinces (from -18% in Manitoba to -27% in New Brunswick).

Other professional degrees in health care included dentistry, optometry and veterinary medicine, which had to be grouped together to produce large enough sample sizes. Newfoundland and Labrador was the biggest net gainer for this group (26%), followed by Alberta (18%) and Saskatchewan (15%). New Brunswick (-29%) and Nova Scotia (-26%) registered the largest net losses.

Another professional degree that was examined is law. In this case, moderate net gains were registered by British Columbia (9%), Alberta (6%) and Ontario (5%), while the largest net losses were registered in New Brunswick (-38%) and Prince Edward Island (-30%).

British Columbia and Alberta also fared well with regard to PhD holders. In fact, they were the only two provinces to register substantial net gains among these graduates (41% in British Columbia and 30% in Alberta). Nova Scotia was next, with a 1% net gain. This was followed by small net losses in Quebec and Ontario (-3% in both cases); moderate net losses in Nova Scotia (-7%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (-13%); and more substantial net losses in Saskatchewan (-26%), Manitoba (-29%), Prince Edward Island (-37%) and New Brunswick (-38%).

Most provinces registered small to moderate net losses in certificate and diploma holders. However, Alberta was a clear outlier, having registered a net gain of 29%. This could reflect the fact that the oil-producing province has a high demand for technologists and technicians to work in the oil fields. Alberta also registered the largest net skill gains among bachelor’s degree (17%) and master’s degree (25%) graduates, which could reflect a high demand for other types of graduates (e.g., engineering).

However, the results in Table 2 suggest that Alberta registered net skill gains across all five groups of fields of study examined here: STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) mathematics intensive, STEM other, BHASE (business, humanities, health, arts, social sciences and education) business, BHASE health, and BHASE other. British Columbia was a net gainer in all five fields, but especially in STEM other (which largely includes fields related to biology).



Conclusion

Retaining and recruiting young skilled talent are critical to any community for economic, health, cultural and civic reasons. The issue is particularly important to the provinces and territories because education is within their jurisdiction. However, a competitive labour market means that certain provinces or territories may be more likely than others to lose or gain young skilled workers.

This article found that net skill gains were highest (by far) in Nunavut, followed by the Northwest Territories and Yukon. Among the provinces, two were net skill gainers (Alberta and British Columbia). Net skill losses were particularly large in Prince Edward Island, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland and Labrador, while smaller losses were registered in Nova Scotia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. Quebec and Ontario registered very small net skill losses. In addition to being the only two provinces to benefit from the migration patterns of young skilled talent, Alberta and British Columbia were also less likely to provide a postsecondary education to their leavers, compared with the share of entrants who had already completed their postsecondary education elsewhere. British Columbia was, by far, the largest net gainer of medical degree graduates among the provinces, while British Columbia and Alberta were the largest net gainers of PhD graduates.

Note that migration may be highly influenced by economic conditions in different parts of the country. The patterns shown here were observed in a period when Alberta and British Columbia were the only net gainers of overall interprovincial migration (Chastko 2021).^Note  The pattern for youth may change if the overall interprovincial migration pattern changes—indeed, Alberta has begun to lose population because of provincial migration in recent years, following declining oil prices during the 2010s.

It is also important to note that these data predate the COVID-19 pandemic and the recent increase in telework. It may now be easier for certain workers to remain in their home province or territory while they work (remotely) in a different part of the country. While this could accentuate skill losses in certain provinces or territories, the fact that workers can continue to live (and spend) where they grew up (rather than move away) could mitigate the losses for jurisdictions of origin (i.e., the resource may be gone, but the dollars are still spent locally). Future research with more recent data could examine this dynamic.

Future work could also focus on skill losses and gains in minority official language communities (e.g., Franco-Ontarians, Acadians, Anglo-Quebecers). Maintaining a critical mass of young skilled talent in these communities may be challenging, especially given that many speak both official languages and could compete for jobs anywhere across Canada.

References

Burbidge, J. and R. Finnie. 2000. The inter-provincial mobility of baccalaureate graduates: Who moves and when. Canadian Journal of Regional Science. Vol. 23, No. 3, pp. 377-402.

Chastko, K. 2021. Internal Migration: Overview, 2016/17 to 2018/19. Report on the demographic situation in Canada.

Frenette, M. 2023. The changing nature of work since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic and Social Reports. Vol. 3, No. 7.

Laporte, C. and R. Mueller. 2011. The Completion Behaviour of Registered Apprentices: Who Continues, Who Quits, and Who Completes Programs? Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series, no. 333. Statistics Canada Catalogue no. 11F0019M. Ottawa: Statistics Canada.

Narh, E.D. and M. Buzzelli. 2022. Higher Education Student Migration in Canada: Interprovincial Structure and the Influence of Student Mother Tongue. Canadian Journal of Regional Science. Vol. 45, No. 1, pp. 36-47.

Usher, A. 2021. Inter-provincial student mobility. Blog post. Higher Education Strategy Associates.