Technical Reference Guides for the Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform (ELMLP)
Geographic mobility indicators of Canadian undergraduate degree holders

1. Introduction

The geographic mobility of postsecondary graduates, that is, the movement between their place of residence prior to their studies, their place of study, and their place of residence one year after graduation,^Note  is of great interest to provincial and territorial administrations, since not only are they responsible for education, but graduates also constitute a skilled workforce.

Statistics Canada, in collaboration with provincial and territorial ministries of education, has developed a methodology to disseminate data on the geographic mobility of graduates. This was made possible through the Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform (ELMLP), which longitudinally integrates administrative data on education and other data sources to provide anonymized and customized datasets for analytical purposes.

This technical reference guide covers the methodology used for publishing tables (37-10-0289, 37-10-0290, 37-10-0291) and an analytical article on the mobility of Canadian undergraduate degree holders.^Note 

2. Data sources

2.1 Data sources and data integration

The data used for graduate geographic mobility are derived from the integration of the Postsecondary Student Information System (PSIS) and the T1 Family File (T1FF) into the ELMLP.

2.1.1 Postsecondary Student Information System (PSIS)

The PSIS is a national annual administrative database that helps Statistics Canada to provide detailed information on Canadian public postsecondary educational institution enrolments and graduates to meet policy and planning needs in the field of postsecondary education. The PSIS collects information on the programs and courses offered at an institution, as well as information on the students themselves and the programs and courses they are registered in or are graduates of.

2.1.2 T1 Family File (T1FF)

The T1FF is a database that combines the individual T1 tax file with the T4 tax file and the Canada Child Benefit data into a family composition file. It includes income, demographic and geographic variables for each tax filer, their spouse, children, and family.

3. Methodology used to calculate graduate mobility indicators

3.1 Creation of graduate cohorts

The creation of graduate cohorts is based on the same methodology as the one developed for the annual publication of labour market outcomes for college and university graduates. This methodology is presented in detail in Labour market outcome indicators of postsecondary graduates, 2010 to 2021, which is part of the series of technical reference guides of the Education and Labour Market Longitudinal Platform (ELMLP). The main points are as follows:

• Since the tax data for the T1FF are compiled based on the calendar year (from January 1 to December 31 of each year), the cohorts of graduates have been defined based on the attainment of educational qualifications during each calendar year. The information on graduates from each calendar year is therefore drawn from two years of reporting by the PSIS.^Note 
• Certain types of programs, types of credentials and fields of study were excluded from the definition of the graduate population, since they were considered to be out of scope: apprenticeship programs, high school/secondary diploma and certificate programs, pre-technology education/pre-industrial art programs, basic education programs, undergraduate or graduate qualifying programs, micro-programs (related to co-operative education terms in Quebec), and non-programs. Records for graduates associated with non-postsecondary, non-credit programs and the field of study “Personal improvement and leisure” were also removed.
• Graduates were grouped by educational qualification using the Classification of programs and credentials – professional degree variant (a combination of the PSIS program type and credential type variables). The educational qualification category definitions make two adjustments compared with PSIS to permit greater consistency and homogeneity: 1) Undergraduate and post-baccalaureate non-graduate degrees in the six fields of study of Dentistry (DDS, DMD), Law (LLB, JD, BCL), Medicine (MD), Optometry (OD), Pharmacy (PharmD, BS, BSc, BPharm) and Veterinary medicine (DVM) were moved to their own category named “professional degree”; 2) Post-baccalaureate non-graduate degrees in education and in social work were regrouped with the undergraduate degrees group for more consistency across provinces and territories.
• To simplify the analysis of graduate mobility by educational credential groups, only one record was retained for individuals who obtained more than one educational credential in the same calendar year. The following sequential rules were applied to choose the most relevant record: keep the record with the highest program type (e.g., graduate program level is retained over undergraduate level); if program types are the same, then keep the record with the highest credential type (e.g., degree is retained over diploma); if credential types are also the same, but one educational qualification is in the field of study of “education,” then it is retained over the other fields of study; if credential types are also the same, but neither educational qualification is in the field of study of education, then one of the graduate records is chosen at random.
• The graduate records that were missing key demographic information (gender or age) were excluded, along with the records of graduates under the age of 15 or over the age of 64. Age is defined as reported on December 31 of the calendar year of graduation.

3.2 Additional selection criteria

For a graduate to be included in the population for calculating mobility indicators, the following additional criteria were used:

• The province or territory at graduation (or location of study), which represents the province or territory during studies, is the province or territory of the postsecondary institution^Note Note  (the first two characters of the variable “INSTIT” from the PSIS) where the educational qualification was obtained.  It must be located in Canada.
• The province or territory of origin (or at admission), which represents the province or territory of residence prior to studies (“PERMPR1” from PSIS),^Note  must be located in Canada and have a valid value, meaning it excludes “undeclared” (ZZ), “not applicable” (ZY), “Canadian citizen living abroad” (ZX), and the states of the United States.
• The province or territory of residence one year after graduation (or destination) (variable “FPROV” from the T1FF)^Note  must be located in Canada (meaning it excludes “outside of Canada” [70]). The measurement point after graduating has been set at one year after graduation, specifically on December 31 of the year following the year of graduation, since most graduates who leave their location of study do so by the year following their graduation.^Note 
• Graduate information must be available in both data sources used. PSIS data that have been imputed^Note  or graduate records for which no tax data were available one year after graduation were excluded.
• The analysis of geographic mobility deals with graduates who enter the labour market after their program and not those who are continuing their education. Graduates who returned to full-time studies during the year after attaining their educational qualification were excluded from the mobility analysis.
• Only Canadian graduates (Canadian citizens and permanent residents) are included in the analysis. International students were excluded because the methodology and databases used to determine where they lived before their studies and where they were located after graduation are not the same.
• Graduates must have obtained an undergraduate degree. Graduates who have obtained other educational qualifications (e.g., certificates and college diplomas, professional degrees, master’s and doctoral degrees) were excluded from the analysis because the “PERMPR1” variable from the PSIS, used to determine the province of origin, is not of sufficient quality in certain provinces for these educational qualifications.

3.3 Calculation of indicators of graduate mobility

3.3.1 Number of Canadian undergraduate degree graduates, by location of study, origin, and destination one year after graduation

The table (37-10-0289) displays the number of graduates from a province, territory or region,^Note  by their place of residence of origin (or at admission) and by their place of residence one year after graduation (or destination). This table enables all possible permutations of the place of residence before and after graduation to be measured. Thus, it is possible to know where graduates from a province, territory or region come from, and where they go one year after graduation.

3.3.2 Retention rate of Canadian undergraduate degree graduates one year after graduation, by location of study, origin, field of study, and student characteristics

The tables 37-10-0290 and  37-10-0291 display the number of graduates who stayed in the province, territory or region at graduation, one year after graduation, and the associated retention rate,^Note Note  based on the origin of the graduates (same or different from the province, territory or region of studies) their field of study, their gender, and their age group. The retention rate is a measure of a province of study's attractiveness to graduates, depending on the characteristics of the graduates and their field of study.

In the Table 37-10-0290, the fields of study are classified up to the third level of the “Variant of the Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) Canada 2021 Version 1.0 for Science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) and Business, humanities, health, arts, social science and education (BHASE) groupings” variant of the Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) Canada 2021 which corresponds to about 40 fields of study.

In the Table 37-10-0291, the fields of study are classified up to the sub-series level (comprising 4 digits) of the “Classification of Instructional Programs (CIP) Canada 2021 Version 1.0”, which corresponds to a little over 450 fields of study.

4. Data limitations

There are limitations to consider regarding the quality of the data, their integration and their interpretation.

4.1 Quality of the variable “PERMPR1” from the PSIS

Among the undergraduate degree holders, the cohorts of graduates from 2010 and 2011 were excluded from the analysis because the quality of the variable “PERMPR1,” which determines the province of origin (or before studies), is insufficient for certain provinces for these years. For this reason, the analysis of mobility starts with the cohort of 2012 graduates.

For 2012 and subsequent years, the response rate for the variable “PERMPR1” is high among undergraduate degree holders, for all provinces of study.

On the other hand, graduates with other educational qualifications (e.g., certificates and diplomas from colleges, professional degrees, master’s and doctoral degrees) were excluded from the analysis because the variable “PERMPR1” was not of sufficient quality for these other educational qualifications in certain provinces. Canada-wide tables that would provide a good overall picture of the situation are therefore not possible for other educational qualifications at this time.

4.2 Data coverage

The PSIS data have some data gaps because of non-response rates at the institutional level and non-integration with tax data for certain years. However, the data from the most recent years are generally more comprehensive.

Because of limited data availability, data from Ontario colleges could not be used for the 2011/2012 and 2012/2013 school years. This gap may have an impact on the undergraduate programs offered in colleges for the 2012 and 2013 graduation cohorts.

4.3 Use of the province of the postsecondary institution as the province of residence during studies

Even though the province of the postsecondary institution is the best available data source in the ELMLP to define the province of residence during studies, the province of the postsecondary institution and the province of residence can be different for several reasons:

• Students attending institutions located on provincial borders do not necessarily reside in the province of the postsecondary institution.
• Students who complete an online educational program may reside in a different province from the province of the postsecondary institution.
• Students who attend institutions that have campuses in more than one province may be considered to be attending a postsecondary institution in a province where they are not physically located.
• Students who attend institutions that have interprovincial agreements, under which they can be enrolled in an institution (granting the academic title) while physically attending another institution, may reside in a different province from the province of the postsecondary institution.

However, graduates who are educated at an institution in a province represent a cost for that province, and their departure can have an impact on the availability of skilled labour in the province where they were educated. Thus, the province of the postsecondary institution remains relevant, even if it may differ from the province of residence during studies, in some cases.

4.4 Administrative data

Administrative data, just like survey data, are not free from errors and inconsistencies. There may be differences in how certain institutions report different variables or programs within the PSIS. For certain variables, some institutions may provide their best approximation, rather than not responding.

4.5 Data integration

There could be potential bias or measurement errors in estimating mobility indicators because of a small proportion of incorrectly integrated records between the PSIS and the T1FF, as well as records that could not be integrated because of missing or incomplete information.

4.6 Non-filers or late filers

Mobility indicators may also have a bias because of individuals who do not file taxes (or individuals who file more than six months after the June 15 deadline). In this study, it is not possible to distinguish between individuals who do not file their tax returns and those whose records could not be included because of missing data.

5. Confidentiality, rounding and quality of estimates

All data are subject to confidentiality and rounding procedures. In addition, retention rate data may be suppressed (value replaced by the symbol “F”) if the estimates are deemed too unreliable to be published, or accompanied by the symbol “E” if they are to be used with caution.

6. Validation of the methodology using the National Graduates Survey

To validate the proposed methodology, data from the National Graduates Survey (NGS) were used for the class of 2015.^Note 

First, the data from the National Graduates Survey (NGS) for the class of 2015 were integrated with the integrated data from PSIS 2015-T1FF 2018, and a comparison was performed of the values of the three main variables (province at graduation, province of origin, province of destination) used in calculating mobility between the two sources.^Note  The degree of matching was above 90% for all provinces, except for Prince Edward Island, where the match was 86% for the province of origin.

Then, by using both sources of data and aligning the selection of graduates as much as possible, the geographic mobility of graduates three years after graduation was compared between the two sources. Among graduates from the same province as where they obtained their educational qualification, the retention rates differed by no more than two percentage points, with the exception of Prince Edward Island,^Note  which had a five percentage point difference. Among graduates from a different province than where they obtained their educational qualification, larger differences in retention rates were generally observed, but the samples, especially for the NGS, were small. The retention rates for provinces where the NGS had a sample of more than 150 graduates from a province different from where they obtained their educational qualification showed differences of no more than six percentage points compared with the retention rates measured from the PSIS-T1FF data.