May 2026
Spotlight on data and research
Labour productivity in industries dependent on United States demand for Canadian exports
Recent trade tensions between the United States (U.S.) and Canada have raised questions around the impact of tariffs on Canadian industries dependent on U.S. demand. Those are defined as industries in which 35% or more of jobs depended on U.S. demand for Canadian exports of goods and services in 2023. This article found that labour productivity in such industries grew by 4.4% from 2019 to 2024 while labour productivity in the rest of the business sector grew by 0.5% over the same period.
While industries dependent on U.S. demand collectively outperformed other industries in terms of labour productivity growth from 2019 to 2024, this was not even across the 22 subsectors of industries dependent on U.S. demand. Clothing and leather and allied product manufacturing (26.5%), pipeline transportation (15.1%), and oil and gas extraction (12.1%) were the top three performers among industries dependent on U.S. demand over this period. The bottom three performers were business-to-business electronic markets, and agents and brokers (-13.7%); transportation equipment manufacturing (-11.3%); and fishing, hunting and trapping (-11.2%).
Quantitative impact analysis: A practical overview
As the scale and complexity of public business support programs increases, policymakers require rigorous evidence not only of program effectiveness but also of the mechanisms through which firms benefit. This article outlines quantitative methods that can be used to evaluate the economic impacts of programs delivered by federal agencies and Crown corporations. The methodological approach uses combined data sets to facilitate the creation of treatment groups, covariates, and a wide range of outcome measures, such as sales, employment, payroll, and productivity.
Insights
Occupational match and economic outcomes of recent immigrants: A broad assessment
Employment that aligns with immigrants’ pre-migration qualifications is an important indicator of successful economic integration. This study investigates how often recent immigrants end up working in occupations consistent with the one they intended to pursue at admission. It also examines the earnings consequences of working inside or outside those intended occupations.
Drawing on linked data from the Longitudinal Immigration Database and the 2021 Census, the study finds that among immigrants admitted to Canada between 2010 and 2020, roughly one in five were employed in their intended specific occupation in 2021. Occupational matching was more common among immigrants with graduate degrees, those arriving from more developed source countries, and individuals who had Canadian work experience prior to admission.
Research articles
Becoming journeypersons: A comparative study of childhood immigrants and Canadian-born apprentices from registration to certification
Skilled trades workers have remained in demand over the past several decades, partly due to an aging workforce and higher retirements compared with many other occupations. This study examined certification outcomes through 2023 for apprentices who registered between 2008 and 2015. The study compared childhood immigrants—individuals admitted to Canada at age 17 or younger—with Canadian-born apprentices.
The results showed that childhood immigrants represented about 4% to 5% of new registrations, while Canadian-born apprentices accounted for 95% to 96%. Across registration cohorts —individuals newly registered in apprenticeship training programs from 2008 to 2015, between 16% and 25% of apprentices obtained certification within the expected program length. This increased to between 33% and 45% when allowing up to twice the expected program duration for completion.
Related publications
Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series
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