Survey Methodology
A bivariate hierarchical Bayesian model for estimating cropland cash rental rates at the county level

by Andreea Erciulescu, Emily Berg, Will Cecere and Malay GhoshNote 1

  • Release date: June 27, 2019
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Abstract

The National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) is responsible for estimating average cash rental rates at the county level. A cash rental rate refers to the market value of land rented on a per acre basis for cash only. Estimates of cash rental rates are useful to farmers, economists, and policy makers. NASS collects data on cash rental rates using a Cash Rent Survey. Because realized sample sizes at the county level are often too small to support reliable direct estimators, predictors based on mixed models are investigated. We specify a bivariate model to obtain predictors of 2010 cash rental rates for non-irrigated cropland using data from the 2009 Cash Rent Survey and auxiliary variables from external sources such as the 2007 Census of Agriculture. We use Bayesian methods for inference and present results for Iowa, Kansas, and Texas. Incorporating the 2009 survey data through a bivariate model leads to predictors with smaller mean squared errors than predictors based on a univariate model.

Key Words:      Hierarchical Bayes; Bivariate mixed model; Benchmarking.

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How to cite

Erciulescu, A., Berg, E., Cecere, W. and Ghosh, M. (2019). A bivariate hierarchical Bayesian model for estimating cropland cash rental rates at the county level. Survey Methodology, Statistics Canada, Catalogue No. 12-001-X, Vol. 45, No. 2. Paper available at https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/12-001-x/2019002/article/00002-eng.htm.

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ISSN : 1492-0921

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Survey Methodology publishes articles dealing with various aspects of statistical development relevant to a statistical agency, such as design issues in the context of practical constraints, use of different data sources and collection techniques, total survey error, survey evaluation, research in survey methodology, time series analysis, seasonal adjustment, demographic studies, data integration, estimation and data analysis methods, and general survey systems development. The emphasis is placed on the development and evaluation of specific methodologies as applied to data collection or the data themselves. All papers will be refereed. However, the authors retain full responsibility for the contents of their papers and opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the Editorial Board or of Statistics Canada.

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Published by authority of the Minister responsible for Statistics Canada.

© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada as represented by the Minister of Industry, 2019

Use of this publication is governed by the Statistics Canada Open Licence Agreement.

Catalogue No. 12-001-X

Frequency: Semi-annual

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Table of contents

Abstract - Article main page
Section 1. Introduction
Section 2. Data for modeling non-irrigated cropland cash rental rates
Section 3. Bivariate hierarchical Bayesian model
Section 4. Results for non-irrigated cropland in Iowa, Kansas, and Texas
Section 5. Conclusions and future work
Acknowledgements
Appendix A
Appendix B
Appendix C
References

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