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- Articles and reports: 12-001-X201800254952Description:
Panel surveys are frequently used to measure the evolution of parameters over time. Panel samples may suffer from different types of unit non-response, which is currently handled by estimating the response probabilities and by reweighting respondents. In this work, we consider estimation and variance estimation under unit non-response for panel surveys. Extending the work by Kim and Kim (2007) for several times, we consider a propensity score adjusted estimator accounting for initial non-response and attrition, and propose a suitable variance estimator. It is then extended to cover most estimators encountered in surveys, including calibrated estimators, complex parameters and longitudinal estimators. The properties of the proposed variance estimator and of a simplified variance estimator are estimated through a simulation study. An illustration of the proposed methods on data from the ELFE survey is also presented.
Release date: 2018-12-20 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201800254955Description:
Many studies conducted by various electric utilities around the world are based on the analysis of mean electricity consumption curves for various subpopulations, particularly geographic in nature. Those mean curves are estimated from samples of thousands of curves measured at very short intervals over long periods. Estimation for small subpopulations, also called small domains, is a very timely topic in sampling theory.
In this article, we will examine this problem based on functional data and we will try to estimate the mean curves for small domains. For this, we propose four methods: functional linear regression; modelling the scores of a principal component analysis by unit-level linear mixed models; and two non-parametric estimators, with one based on regression trees and the other on random forests, adapted to the curves. All these methods have been tested and compared using real electricity consumption data for households in France.
Release date: 2018-12-20 - 3. Optimizing a mixed allocation ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201800254959Description:
This article proposes a criterion for calculating the trade-off in so-called “mixed” allocations, which combine two classic allocations in sampling theory. In INSEE (National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies) business surveys, it is common to use the arithmetic mean of a proportional allocation and a Neyman allocation (corresponding to a trade-off of 0.5). It is possible to obtain a trade-off value resulting in better properties for the estimators. This value belongs to a region that is obtained by solving an optimization program. Different methods for calculating the trade-off will be presented. An application for business surveys is presented, as well as a comparison with other usual trade-off allocations.
Release date: 2018-12-20 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201800254960Description:
Based on auxiliary information, calibration is often used to improve the precision of estimates. However, calibration weighting may not be appropriate for all variables of interest of the survey, particularly those not related to the auxiliary variables used in calibration. In this paper, we propose a criterion to assess, for any variable of interest, the impact of calibration weighting on the precision of the estimated total. This criterion can be used to decide on the weights associated with each survey variable of interest and determine the variables for which calibration weighting is appropriate.
Release date: 2018-12-20 - 5. Model based inference using ranked set samples ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201800154925Description:
This paper develops statistical inference based on super population model in a finite population setting using ranked set samples (RSS). The samples are constructed without replacement. It is shown that the sample mean of RSS is model unbiased and has smaller mean square prediction error (MSPE) than the MSPE of a simple random sample mean. Using an unbiased estimator of MSPE, the paper also constructs a prediction confidence interval for the population mean. A small scale simulation study shows that estimator is as good as a simple random sample (SRS) estimator for poor ranking information. On the other hand it has higher efficiency than SRS estimator when the quality of ranking information is good, and the cost ratio of obtaining a single unit in RSS and SRS is not very high. Simulation study also indicates that coverage probabilities of prediction intervals are very close to the nominal coverage probabilities. Proposed inferential procedure is applied to a real data set.
Release date: 2018-06-21 - 6. Linearization versus bootstrap for variance estimation of the change between Gini indexes ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201800154926Description:
This paper investigates the linearization and bootstrap variance estimation for the Gini coefficient and the change between Gini indexes at two periods of time. For the one-sample case, we use the influence function linearization approach suggested by Deville (1999), the without-replacement bootstrap suggested by Gross (1980) for simple random sampling without replacement and the with-replacement of primary sampling units described in Rao and Wu (1988) for multistage sampling. To obtain a two-sample variance estimator, we use the linearization technique by means of partial influence functions (Goga, Deville and Ruiz-Gazen, 2009). We also develop an extension of the studied bootstrap procedures for two-dimensional sampling. The two approaches are compared on simulated data.
Release date: 2018-06-21 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201800154929Description:
The U.S. Census Bureau is investigating nonrespondent subsampling strategies for usage in the 2017 Economic Census. Design constraints include a mandated lower bound on the unit response rate, along with targeted industry-specific response rates. This paper presents research on allocation procedures for subsampling nonrespondents, conditional on the subsampling being systematic. We consider two approaches: (1) equal-probability sampling and (2) optimized allocation with constraints on unit response rates and sample size with the objective of selecting larger samples in industries that have initially lower response rates. We present a simulation study that examines the relative bias and mean squared error for the proposed allocations, assessing each procedure’s sensitivity to the size of the subsample, the response propensities, and the estimation procedure.
Release date: 2018-06-21 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201800154963Description:
The probability-sampling-based framework has dominated survey research because it provides precise mathematical tools to assess sampling variability. However increasing costs and declining response rates are expanding the use of non-probability samples, particularly in general population settings, where samples of individuals pulled from web surveys are becoming increasingly cheap and easy to access. But non-probability samples are at risk for selection bias due to differential access, degrees of interest, and other factors. Calibration to known statistical totals in the population provide a means of potentially diminishing the effect of selection bias in non-probability samples. Here we show that model calibration using adaptive LASSO can yield a consistent estimator of a population total as long as a subset of the true predictors is included in the prediction model, thus allowing large numbers of possible covariates to be included without risk of overfitting. We show that the model calibration using adaptive LASSO provides improved estimation with respect to mean square error relative to standard competitors such as generalized regression (GREG) estimators when a large number of covariates are required to determine the true model, with effectively no loss in efficiency over GREG when smaller models will suffice. We also derive closed form variance estimators of population totals, and compare their behavior with bootstrap estimators. We conclude with a real world example using data from the National Health Interview Survey.
Release date: 2018-06-21
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- Articles and reports: 12-001-X201800254952Description:
Panel surveys are frequently used to measure the evolution of parameters over time. Panel samples may suffer from different types of unit non-response, which is currently handled by estimating the response probabilities and by reweighting respondents. In this work, we consider estimation and variance estimation under unit non-response for panel surveys. Extending the work by Kim and Kim (2007) for several times, we consider a propensity score adjusted estimator accounting for initial non-response and attrition, and propose a suitable variance estimator. It is then extended to cover most estimators encountered in surveys, including calibrated estimators, complex parameters and longitudinal estimators. The properties of the proposed variance estimator and of a simplified variance estimator are estimated through a simulation study. An illustration of the proposed methods on data from the ELFE survey is also presented.
Release date: 2018-12-20 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201800254955Description:
Many studies conducted by various electric utilities around the world are based on the analysis of mean electricity consumption curves for various subpopulations, particularly geographic in nature. Those mean curves are estimated from samples of thousands of curves measured at very short intervals over long periods. Estimation for small subpopulations, also called small domains, is a very timely topic in sampling theory.
In this article, we will examine this problem based on functional data and we will try to estimate the mean curves for small domains. For this, we propose four methods: functional linear regression; modelling the scores of a principal component analysis by unit-level linear mixed models; and two non-parametric estimators, with one based on regression trees and the other on random forests, adapted to the curves. All these methods have been tested and compared using real electricity consumption data for households in France.
Release date: 2018-12-20 - 3. Optimizing a mixed allocation ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201800254959Description:
This article proposes a criterion for calculating the trade-off in so-called “mixed” allocations, which combine two classic allocations in sampling theory. In INSEE (National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies) business surveys, it is common to use the arithmetic mean of a proportional allocation and a Neyman allocation (corresponding to a trade-off of 0.5). It is possible to obtain a trade-off value resulting in better properties for the estimators. This value belongs to a region that is obtained by solving an optimization program. Different methods for calculating the trade-off will be presented. An application for business surveys is presented, as well as a comparison with other usual trade-off allocations.
Release date: 2018-12-20 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201800254960Description:
Based on auxiliary information, calibration is often used to improve the precision of estimates. However, calibration weighting may not be appropriate for all variables of interest of the survey, particularly those not related to the auxiliary variables used in calibration. In this paper, we propose a criterion to assess, for any variable of interest, the impact of calibration weighting on the precision of the estimated total. This criterion can be used to decide on the weights associated with each survey variable of interest and determine the variables for which calibration weighting is appropriate.
Release date: 2018-12-20 - 5. Model based inference using ranked set samples ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201800154925Description:
This paper develops statistical inference based on super population model in a finite population setting using ranked set samples (RSS). The samples are constructed without replacement. It is shown that the sample mean of RSS is model unbiased and has smaller mean square prediction error (MSPE) than the MSPE of a simple random sample mean. Using an unbiased estimator of MSPE, the paper also constructs a prediction confidence interval for the population mean. A small scale simulation study shows that estimator is as good as a simple random sample (SRS) estimator for poor ranking information. On the other hand it has higher efficiency than SRS estimator when the quality of ranking information is good, and the cost ratio of obtaining a single unit in RSS and SRS is not very high. Simulation study also indicates that coverage probabilities of prediction intervals are very close to the nominal coverage probabilities. Proposed inferential procedure is applied to a real data set.
Release date: 2018-06-21 - 6. Linearization versus bootstrap for variance estimation of the change between Gini indexes ArchivedArticles and reports: 12-001-X201800154926Description:
This paper investigates the linearization and bootstrap variance estimation for the Gini coefficient and the change between Gini indexes at two periods of time. For the one-sample case, we use the influence function linearization approach suggested by Deville (1999), the without-replacement bootstrap suggested by Gross (1980) for simple random sampling without replacement and the with-replacement of primary sampling units described in Rao and Wu (1988) for multistage sampling. To obtain a two-sample variance estimator, we use the linearization technique by means of partial influence functions (Goga, Deville and Ruiz-Gazen, 2009). We also develop an extension of the studied bootstrap procedures for two-dimensional sampling. The two approaches are compared on simulated data.
Release date: 2018-06-21 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201800154929Description:
The U.S. Census Bureau is investigating nonrespondent subsampling strategies for usage in the 2017 Economic Census. Design constraints include a mandated lower bound on the unit response rate, along with targeted industry-specific response rates. This paper presents research on allocation procedures for subsampling nonrespondents, conditional on the subsampling being systematic. We consider two approaches: (1) equal-probability sampling and (2) optimized allocation with constraints on unit response rates and sample size with the objective of selecting larger samples in industries that have initially lower response rates. We present a simulation study that examines the relative bias and mean squared error for the proposed allocations, assessing each procedure’s sensitivity to the size of the subsample, the response propensities, and the estimation procedure.
Release date: 2018-06-21 - Articles and reports: 12-001-X201800154963Description:
The probability-sampling-based framework has dominated survey research because it provides precise mathematical tools to assess sampling variability. However increasing costs and declining response rates are expanding the use of non-probability samples, particularly in general population settings, where samples of individuals pulled from web surveys are becoming increasingly cheap and easy to access. But non-probability samples are at risk for selection bias due to differential access, degrees of interest, and other factors. Calibration to known statistical totals in the population provide a means of potentially diminishing the effect of selection bias in non-probability samples. Here we show that model calibration using adaptive LASSO can yield a consistent estimator of a population total as long as a subset of the true predictors is included in the prediction model, thus allowing large numbers of possible covariates to be included without risk of overfitting. We show that the model calibration using adaptive LASSO provides improved estimation with respect to mean square error relative to standard competitors such as generalized regression (GREG) estimators when a large number of covariates are required to determine the true model, with effectively no loss in efficiency over GREG when smaller models will suffice. We also derive closed form variance estimators of population totals, and compare their behavior with bootstrap estimators. We conclude with a real world example using data from the National Health Interview Survey.
Release date: 2018-06-21
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