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  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X201000211378
    Description:

    One key to poverty alleviation or eradication in the third world is reliable information on the poor and their location, so that interventions and assistance can be effectively targeted to the neediest people. Small area estimation is one statistical technique that is used to monitor poverty and to decide on aid allocation in pursuit of the Millennium Development Goals. Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw (ELL) (2003) proposed a small area estimation methodology for income-based or expenditure-based poverty measures, which is implemented by the World Bank in its poverty mapping projects via the involvement of the central statistical agencies in many third world countries, including Cambodia, Lao PDR, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, and is incorporated into the World Bank software program PovMap. In this paper, the ELL methodology which consists of first modeling survey data and then applying that model to census information is presented and discussed with strong emphasis on the first phase, i.e., the fitting of regression models and on the estimated standard errors at the second phase. Other regression model fitting procedures such as the General Survey Regression (GSR) (as described in Lohr (1999) Chapter 11) and those used in existing small area estimation techniques: Pseudo-Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (Pseudo-EBLUP) approach (You and Rao 2002) and Iterative Weighted Estimating Equation (IWEE) method (You, Rao and Kovacevic 2003) are presented and compared with the ELL modeling strategy. The most significant difference between the ELL method and the other techniques is in the theoretical underpinning of the ELL model fitting procedure. An example based on the Philippines Family Income and Expenditure Survey is presented to show the differences in both the parameter estimates and their corresponding standard errors, and in the variance components generated from the different methods and the discussion is extended to the effect of these on the estimated accuracy of the final small area estimates themselves. The need for sound estimation of variance components, as well as regression estimates and estimates of their standard errors for small area estimation of poverty is emphasized.

    Release date: 2010-12-21

  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X201000211380
    Description:

    Alternative forms of linearization variance estimators for generalized raking estimators are defined via different choices of the weights applied (a) to residuals and (b) to the estimated regression coefficients used in calculating the residuals. Some theory is presented for three forms of generalized raking estimator, the classical raking ratio estimator, the 'maximum likelihood' raking estimator and the generalized regression estimator, and for associated linearization variance estimators. A simulation study is undertaken, based upon a labour force survey and an income and expenditure survey. Properties of the estimators are assessed with respect to both sampling and nonresponse. The study displays little difference between the properties of the alternative raking estimators for a given sampling scheme and nonresponse model. Amongst the variance estimators, the approach which weights residuals by the design weight can be severely biased in the presence of nonresponse. The approach which weights residuals by the calibrated weight tends to display much less bias. Varying the choice of the weights used to construct the regression coefficients has little impact.

    Release date: 2010-12-21

  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X201000211381
    Description:

    Taylor linearization methods are often used to obtain variance estimators for calibration estimators of totals and nonlinear finite population (or census) parameters, such as ratios, regression and correlation coefficients, which can be expressed as smooth functions of totals. Taylor linearization is generally applicable to any sampling design, but it can lead to multiple variance estimators that are asymptotically design unbiased under repeated sampling. The choice among the variance estimators requires other considerations such as (i) approximate unbiasedness for the model variance of the estimator under an assumed model, and (ii) validity under a conditional repeated sampling framework. Demnati and Rao (2004) proposed a unified approach to deriving Taylor linearization variance estimators that leads directly to a unique variance estimator that satisfies the above considerations for general designs. When analyzing survey data, finite populations are often assumed to be generated from super-population models, and analytical inferences on model parameters are of interest. If the sampling fractions are small, then the sampling variance captures almost the entire variation generated by the design and model random processes. However, when the sampling fractions are not negligible, the model variance should be taken into account in order to construct valid inferences on model parameters under the combined process of generating the finite population from the assumed super-population model and the selection of the sample according to the specified sampling design. In this paper, we obtain an estimator of the total variance, using the Demnati-Rao approach, when the characteristics of interest are assumed to be random variables generated from a super-population model. We illustrate the method using ratio estimators and estimators defined as solutions to calibration weighted estimating equations. Simulation results on the performance of the proposed variance estimator for model parameters are also presented.

    Release date: 2010-12-21

  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X201000111247
    Description:

    In this paper, the problem of estimating the variance of various estimators of the population mean in two-phase sampling has been considered by jackknifing the two-phase calibrated weights of Hidiroglou and Särndal (1995, 1998). Several estimators of population mean available in the literature are shown to be the special cases of the technique developed here, including those suggested by Rao and Sitter (1995) and Sitter (1997). By following Raj (1965) and Srivenkataramana and Tracy (1989), some new estimators of the population mean are introduced and their variances are estimated through the proposed jackknife procedure. The variance of the chain ratio and regression type estimators due to Chand (1975) are also estimated using the jackknife. A simulation study is conducted to assess the efficiency of the proposed jackknife estimators relative to the usual estimators of variance.

    Release date: 2010-06-29

  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X201000111250
    Description:

    We propose a Bayesian Penalized Spline Predictive (BPSP) estimator for a finite population proportion in an unequal probability sampling setting. This new method allows the probabilities of inclusion to be directly incorporated into the estimation of a population proportion, using a probit regression of the binary outcome on the penalized spline of the inclusion probabilities. The posterior predictive distribution of the population proportion is obtained using Gibbs sampling. The advantages of the BPSP estimator over the Hájek (HK), Generalized Regression (GR), and parametric model-based prediction estimators are demonstrated by simulation studies and a real example in tax auditing. Simulation studies show that the BPSP estimator is more efficient, and its 95% credible interval provides better confidence coverage with shorter average width than the HK and GR estimators, especially when the population proportion is close to zero or one or when the sample is small. Compared to linear model-based predictive estimators, the BPSP estimators are robust to model misspecification and influential observations in the sample.

    Release date: 2010-06-29

  • Articles and reports: 82-622-X2010004
    Geography: Canada
    Description:

    Aboriginal people - First Nations, Métis and Inuit - comprise a growing proportion of the Canadian population. Despite the younger average age of these populations, First Nations, Métis and Inuit people tend to suffer a greater burden of morbidity and mortality than non-Aboriginal Canadians. This may be due, in part, to higher rates of socio-economic disadvantage in Aboriginal populations.

    Release date: 2010-06-23

  • Articles and reports: 82-003-X201000211234
    Geography: Canada
    Description:

    This article evaluates the parent-reported Hyperactivity/Inattention Subscale of the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth with data from cycle 1 (1994/1995) of the survey.

    Release date: 2010-06-16

  • Articles and reports: 11F0027M2010060
    Geography: Canada
    Description:

    This paper asks whether synergies or managerial discipline operates in different ways across small versus large plants to affect the likelihood of mergers. Our findings indicate that those characteristics which provide the type of synergies upon which ownership changes rely are important factors leading to plant-ownership changes across most size classes. The magnitudes, however, are different across plant-size classes, with synergies generally being more important in larger plants.

    Foreign plants in all size classes are more likely to be taken over. The effective rates of control change differ much more in the small than in the larger size classes. Compared to domestic plants, multinational plants in the smaller size classes contain relatively more of the type of intangible capital that makes them attractive vehicles for the transmission of new knowledge via takeover.

    Release date: 2010-02-25
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  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X201000211378
    Description:

    One key to poverty alleviation or eradication in the third world is reliable information on the poor and their location, so that interventions and assistance can be effectively targeted to the neediest people. Small area estimation is one statistical technique that is used to monitor poverty and to decide on aid allocation in pursuit of the Millennium Development Goals. Elbers, Lanjouw and Lanjouw (ELL) (2003) proposed a small area estimation methodology for income-based or expenditure-based poverty measures, which is implemented by the World Bank in its poverty mapping projects via the involvement of the central statistical agencies in many third world countries, including Cambodia, Lao PDR, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam, and is incorporated into the World Bank software program PovMap. In this paper, the ELL methodology which consists of first modeling survey data and then applying that model to census information is presented and discussed with strong emphasis on the first phase, i.e., the fitting of regression models and on the estimated standard errors at the second phase. Other regression model fitting procedures such as the General Survey Regression (GSR) (as described in Lohr (1999) Chapter 11) and those used in existing small area estimation techniques: Pseudo-Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (Pseudo-EBLUP) approach (You and Rao 2002) and Iterative Weighted Estimating Equation (IWEE) method (You, Rao and Kovacevic 2003) are presented and compared with the ELL modeling strategy. The most significant difference between the ELL method and the other techniques is in the theoretical underpinning of the ELL model fitting procedure. An example based on the Philippines Family Income and Expenditure Survey is presented to show the differences in both the parameter estimates and their corresponding standard errors, and in the variance components generated from the different methods and the discussion is extended to the effect of these on the estimated accuracy of the final small area estimates themselves. The need for sound estimation of variance components, as well as regression estimates and estimates of their standard errors for small area estimation of poverty is emphasized.

    Release date: 2010-12-21

  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X201000211380
    Description:

    Alternative forms of linearization variance estimators for generalized raking estimators are defined via different choices of the weights applied (a) to residuals and (b) to the estimated regression coefficients used in calculating the residuals. Some theory is presented for three forms of generalized raking estimator, the classical raking ratio estimator, the 'maximum likelihood' raking estimator and the generalized regression estimator, and for associated linearization variance estimators. A simulation study is undertaken, based upon a labour force survey and an income and expenditure survey. Properties of the estimators are assessed with respect to both sampling and nonresponse. The study displays little difference between the properties of the alternative raking estimators for a given sampling scheme and nonresponse model. Amongst the variance estimators, the approach which weights residuals by the design weight can be severely biased in the presence of nonresponse. The approach which weights residuals by the calibrated weight tends to display much less bias. Varying the choice of the weights used to construct the regression coefficients has little impact.

    Release date: 2010-12-21

  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X201000211381
    Description:

    Taylor linearization methods are often used to obtain variance estimators for calibration estimators of totals and nonlinear finite population (or census) parameters, such as ratios, regression and correlation coefficients, which can be expressed as smooth functions of totals. Taylor linearization is generally applicable to any sampling design, but it can lead to multiple variance estimators that are asymptotically design unbiased under repeated sampling. The choice among the variance estimators requires other considerations such as (i) approximate unbiasedness for the model variance of the estimator under an assumed model, and (ii) validity under a conditional repeated sampling framework. Demnati and Rao (2004) proposed a unified approach to deriving Taylor linearization variance estimators that leads directly to a unique variance estimator that satisfies the above considerations for general designs. When analyzing survey data, finite populations are often assumed to be generated from super-population models, and analytical inferences on model parameters are of interest. If the sampling fractions are small, then the sampling variance captures almost the entire variation generated by the design and model random processes. However, when the sampling fractions are not negligible, the model variance should be taken into account in order to construct valid inferences on model parameters under the combined process of generating the finite population from the assumed super-population model and the selection of the sample according to the specified sampling design. In this paper, we obtain an estimator of the total variance, using the Demnati-Rao approach, when the characteristics of interest are assumed to be random variables generated from a super-population model. We illustrate the method using ratio estimators and estimators defined as solutions to calibration weighted estimating equations. Simulation results on the performance of the proposed variance estimator for model parameters are also presented.

    Release date: 2010-12-21

  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X201000111247
    Description:

    In this paper, the problem of estimating the variance of various estimators of the population mean in two-phase sampling has been considered by jackknifing the two-phase calibrated weights of Hidiroglou and Särndal (1995, 1998). Several estimators of population mean available in the literature are shown to be the special cases of the technique developed here, including those suggested by Rao and Sitter (1995) and Sitter (1997). By following Raj (1965) and Srivenkataramana and Tracy (1989), some new estimators of the population mean are introduced and their variances are estimated through the proposed jackknife procedure. The variance of the chain ratio and regression type estimators due to Chand (1975) are also estimated using the jackknife. A simulation study is conducted to assess the efficiency of the proposed jackknife estimators relative to the usual estimators of variance.

    Release date: 2010-06-29

  • Articles and reports: 12-001-X201000111250
    Description:

    We propose a Bayesian Penalized Spline Predictive (BPSP) estimator for a finite population proportion in an unequal probability sampling setting. This new method allows the probabilities of inclusion to be directly incorporated into the estimation of a population proportion, using a probit regression of the binary outcome on the penalized spline of the inclusion probabilities. The posterior predictive distribution of the population proportion is obtained using Gibbs sampling. The advantages of the BPSP estimator over the Hájek (HK), Generalized Regression (GR), and parametric model-based prediction estimators are demonstrated by simulation studies and a real example in tax auditing. Simulation studies show that the BPSP estimator is more efficient, and its 95% credible interval provides better confidence coverage with shorter average width than the HK and GR estimators, especially when the population proportion is close to zero or one or when the sample is small. Compared to linear model-based predictive estimators, the BPSP estimators are robust to model misspecification and influential observations in the sample.

    Release date: 2010-06-29

  • Articles and reports: 82-622-X2010004
    Geography: Canada
    Description:

    Aboriginal people - First Nations, Métis and Inuit - comprise a growing proportion of the Canadian population. Despite the younger average age of these populations, First Nations, Métis and Inuit people tend to suffer a greater burden of morbidity and mortality than non-Aboriginal Canadians. This may be due, in part, to higher rates of socio-economic disadvantage in Aboriginal populations.

    Release date: 2010-06-23

  • Articles and reports: 82-003-X201000211234
    Geography: Canada
    Description:

    This article evaluates the parent-reported Hyperactivity/Inattention Subscale of the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth with data from cycle 1 (1994/1995) of the survey.

    Release date: 2010-06-16

  • Articles and reports: 11F0027M2010060
    Geography: Canada
    Description:

    This paper asks whether synergies or managerial discipline operates in different ways across small versus large plants to affect the likelihood of mergers. Our findings indicate that those characteristics which provide the type of synergies upon which ownership changes rely are important factors leading to plant-ownership changes across most size classes. The magnitudes, however, are different across plant-size classes, with synergies generally being more important in larger plants.

    Foreign plants in all size classes are more likely to be taken over. The effective rates of control change differ much more in the small than in the larger size classes. Compared to domestic plants, multinational plants in the smaller size classes contain relatively more of the type of intangible capital that makes them attractive vehicles for the transmission of new knowledge via takeover.

    Release date: 2010-02-25
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