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This paper starts from the definition that "structural unemployment occurs when workers are unable to fill available jobs because they lack the skills, do not live where jobs are available, or are unwilling to work at the wage rate offered in the market." This implies that the number of vacancies in the Canadian labour market is an upper bound to the extent of "structural unemployment". The paper summarizes available estimates of the vacancy rate in Canada. In the high technology sector, vacancies may be equivalent to 2.2% of the labour force but evidence from more representative surveys indicates a range of 0.43% to 0.75% for the economy as a whole. Although during the 1980s the outward shift in the relationship between the Help-Wanted Index and the unemployment rate raised concerns that structural unemployment was an increasing problem in Canada, that shift has been reversed in the 1990s.

North American transportation in figures provides a comprehensive set of comparable statistical indicators of the use, performance and impact of transportation in North America. It includes over 90 different data tables, supported by figures, maps and extensive technical documentation describing data categories and definitions relating to each country, that is, Canada, Mexico and the United States. The report covers a wide variety of transportation subjects across the three countries: including transportation and the economy; safety; merchandise trade; freight activity; passenger travel; infrastructure; and transportation energy and environment.

The Guide to health statistics leads to health-related information with links to vital statistics such as births, deaths, marriages and divorces, to cancer statistics, health determinants, health status, health care, smoking and tobacco use and more. There is also information on cross-sectional and longitudinal surveys from the Canadian Community Health Survey and the National Population Health Survey.

This user's guide has been developed by Health Statistics Division to facilitate access on health information at Statistics Canada. It includes information with links to products and programs from Health Statistics Division, other divisions at Statistics Canada and other health related programs outside Statistics Canada.

The publication provides principal statistics of the logging industry including number of establishments, number of employees, salaries and wages, cost of fuel and electricity, cost of materials, value of shipments and value added. It also presents commodity detail by province on inputs and outputs and estimates of total forest production, by products and by province. A data analysis, definitions and notes, a bibliography and a list of establishments by province are also included.

The first survey of innovation, advanced technologies and practices in the Canadian construction sector was recently conducted. Of the five types of technologies listed in the survey, communications technologies have the highest percentage of use (46% of businesses). Of all the techonolgies, three computer-related technologies had the highest percentage of use : e-mail (38%), company computer networks (25%) and computer aided design (23%). The three advanced practices with the largest percentage of business using them, each with one third of businesses, are: design-build contracts, computerized inventory control and computerized estimating software.

The growing trend towards a knowledge-based economy has impacted the way research is funded and performed in Canadian universities. As higher quality estimates of R&D activities by this sector are of increasing importance to policy makers, Statistics Canada has begun substantial revisions to the methods for calculating estimates for higher education R&D. The implementation of this plan will provide substantially improved estimates of both dollar values and personnel counts for this sector.

Although universities and federal government departments have unique mandates, both are striving to promote applied research. Recent surveys finally provide a basis for comparison. In 1999, universities reported over 1,800 active patents with royalties approaching $19 million. Federal governments departments had almost 2,000 patents generating $12 million in royalties.

Why do innovation surveys produce radically different estimates of the number of R&D performers than R&D surveys? The factors contributing to divergence are presented with detail on selected contributors.

Given the high cost of R&D, adopting the correct strategies and mix of products is required for success for Canadian biotechnology firms. A recent survey examined the rapid growth of 30 companies. Fast-growing enterprises adopted a strategy of patenting their products, avoiding major production delays, targeting export markets, accessing venture capital, conducting key alliances, and planning the IPO.

Technological change and innovations depend greatly on R&D activities and investments. R&D is concentrated around the "core firms" that are responsible for 87% of expenditures. Biotechnology R&D performers accounted for $904 million of R&D expenditure. Biotechnology R&D is concentrated in large firms with 75% of R&D occuring in firms with 100 or more employees. Almost 77% of funding sources for R&D in biotechnology came from the private sector and 21% from foreign sources.

This publication presents a timely picture of employment, earnings and hours which is vital for Canada's businesses and governments for planning and decision-making purposes. The tabulations focus on annual labour market information and historical data series. The major economic variables for over 280 industries are provided at the national and provincial/territorial level. The publication includes notes on the concepts and methods of the monthly survey. The "Help-Wanted index 1981-1999 supplement" is included in this publication.

Reduced barriers to trade across North America and increasingly mobile populations have created a heightened need for information on transportation services and infrastructure. North American transportation highlights provides key summary statistics on trade and travel, safety, and energy use of transportation in Mexico, the United States and Canada. Statistical tables and charts contained within the report are accompanied by data sources and notes describing data categories and definitions relating to each country.

The report was developed under the framework of the North American Transportation Statistics Interchange representing the transportation and statistical agencies of Mexico, the United States and Canada. Participating agencies include the Secretaría de Comunicaciones y Transportes, the Instituto Mexicano del Transporte, and the Instituto Nacional de Estadística Geografía e Informática from México; the Bureau of Transportation Statistics and the Census Bureau from the United States; Statistics Canada and Transport Canada. It was produced and released by the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) in December 1999 and is part of more comprehensive report, North American transportation in figures (catalogue no. 50-501-XIE) released in October 2000.

There is a diversity of manufacturing activity that contributes to Canada's regional economies. The spatial distribution of these activities is far from symmetrical, with most activity being concentrated within the Québec City - Windsor corridor. In 1997, the provinces of Ontario and Québec accounted for approximately 76% of Canada's value of shipments. Using data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures, two maps have been created to highlight the predominant manufacturing activity by census division in 1983 and 1997. Employing advanced mapping software, it is possible to accurately make maps which show the correspondence between manufacturing activity and the ecumene. The brief discussion herein will help readers to interpret the enclosed maps.

The Manufacturing, Construction and Energy Division is engaged in finding alternatives to presenting data from the Annual Survey of Manufactures using advanced mapping technology. This technology enables us to present a coherent spatial representation of manufacturing activity across Canada. The interactive map presents provincial principle statistics and highlights, with a view to disseminating knowledge and stimulating discussion.

This bulletin is a preliminary release of 1998 annual data for the Cellular Telecommunications Industry (including PCS and ESMR service providers) with accompanying data from 1995.

The most recent issue contains "Food producers maintain expansion" by Peter Zylstra. Food commodity processors are engaged in a multitude of manufacturing activities. The aggregate performance of these is the subject of this article. Common influences on all processing industries that make up the Food Industries Major Group are examined, while specific ones that impact some and not others are also discussed. Growth in food industries has always been a function of population growth. In addition, health considerations and new product development are important factors. The summary of recent developments is based on results of the 1997 Annual Survey of Manufactures. Other sources are also used for industry analysis as well as for the provision of industry environment and economic background.

This article is divided into three sections. Section 1 describes results for small for-hire carriers; section 2 contains data for owner operations; and section 3 provides a general discussion of Annual Motor Carriers of Freight survey data quality.

This study presents 1997/1998 LFS earnings estimates for about 85,000 drivers employed by for-hire carriers (companies whose principal business is transportation of goods for a fee) in comparison to drivers employed in private trucking (companies that transport their freight by truck, but whose principal business activity is not trucking) and the overall labour force. Wages and earnings estimated presented in this study exclude owner operators and self-employed workers.

This publication shows expenditures, by industry, for the various types of packaging materials.

The cable and other program distribution industry has reported revenues of $3.1 billion in 1998, a 10.0% increase over 1997. This relatively strong growth is due in large part to the fast growing non-basic services segment. While revenue from basic services grew moderately (2.1%) revenue from non-basic and other services increased by 29.0%.

This article examines the issue of non-union members who are covered by collective agreements, comparing the Canadian picture in the late 1990s with that of the United States. An accompanying update, which covers the first half of 2000, provides Perspectives annual socio-demograhic and economic profile of union members.

For some time, concerns have been raised about the movement of young people away from rural areas, mainly to find work. This article provides information on the extent to which youths stay, leave or return to rural communities. (Adapted from a recently published analytical report.)

The correlation of occupational gender composition and wages is the basis of pay equity/comparable worth legislation. A number of previous studies have examined this correlation in US data, identifying some of the determinants of low wages in "female jobs", as well as important limitations of public policy in this area. There is little evidence, however, from other jurisdictions. This omission is particularly disturbing in the case of Canada, which now has some of the most extensive pay equity legislation in the world. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive picture, circa the late 1980's, of the occupational gender segregation in Canada and its consequences for wages. We also draw explicit comparisons of our findings to evidence for the United States. We find that the link between female wages and gender composition is much stronger in the United States than in Canada, where it is generally small and not statistically significant. The relatively more advantageous position of women in female jobs in Canada is found to be linked to higher unionization rates and the industry-wage effects of "public goods" sectors.

This paper addresses the topic of inter-provincial migration in terms of the basic question: "who moves?" Panel logit models of the probability of moving from one year to the next are estimated using samples derived from the Longitudinal Administrative Database covering the period 1982-95. Explanatory variables include "environmental" factors, personal characteristics, labour market attributes, and a series of year variables. Separate models are estimated for eight age-sex groups.

The major findings include that: i) migration rates have been inversely related to the size of the province, presumably capturing economic conditions, labour market scale effects, and pure geographical distance, while language has also played an important role; ii) residents of smaller cities, towns, and especially rural areas have been less likely to move than individuals in larger cities; iii) age, marriage, and the presence of children have been negatively related to mobility, for both men and women; iv) migration has been positively related to the provincial unemployment rate, the individuals' receipt of unemployment insurance (except Entry Men), having no market income (except for Entry Men and Entry Women), and the receipt of social assistance (especially for men); v) beyond the zero earnings point, migration has been positively related to earnings levels for prime aged men, but not for others, and these effects are generally small (holding other factors constant); vi) there were no dramatic shifts in migration rates over time, but men's rates dropped off a bit in the 1990s while women's rates (except for the Entry group) generally held steadier or rose slightly, indicating a divergence in trends along gender lines.

There has been for some time substantial concern regarding the loss of young people in rural communities. There is a sense that most rural communities offer few opportunities for their younger people, requiring them to leave for urban communities, most likely not to return. While there is a considerable body of research on interprovincial migration, relatively little is currently known about migration patterns in rural and urban areas in Canada.

According to our analysis, in virtually all provinces young people 15 to 19 years of age are leaving rural areas in greater proportions than urban areas - in part to pursue post-secondary education. While there are more complex migration patterns affecting the 20-29 age group, the net result of all migration is that the Atlantic provinces - as well as Manitoba and Saskatchewan - are net losers of their rural population aged 15-29. The problem is particularly acute in Newfoundland. In the Atlantic provinces, rural areas which fare worse than the national average - in terms of net gains of youth population - do so not because they have a higher than average percentage of leavers but rather because they are unable to attract a sufficiently high proportion of individuals into their communities.

Of all individuals who move out of their rural community, at most 25% return to this community ten years later. The implication of this result is clear: one cannot count on return migration as a means of preserving the population size of a given cohort. Rather, rural areas must rely on inflows from other (urban) areas to achieve this goal. Some rural communities achieve this; that is, they register positive net in-migration of persons aged 25-29 or older, even though they incur a net loss of younger people.

Individuals who move out of rural areas generally experience higher earnings growth than their counterparts who stay. However, it remains an open question in which direction the causality works: is the higher earnings growth the result of the migration process itself or does it reflect the possibility that people with higher earnings growth potential are more likely to become movers?

This article explores regional differences among students who drop out of Canadian universities and community colleges.

This article explores the effects of increasing costs on university attendance and the subsequent labour market outcomes of graduates.

This paper examines the characteristics of young people who responded to the 1991 School Leavers Survey (SLS), but who subsequently failed to respond to the 1995 School Leavers Follow-up Survey (SLF).

Fabricated metal products industries remain in the middle of an expansion period. The construction sector's vitality, as well as the high North-American demand for industrial products, allow metal products manufacturers to live glorious days. However, where competitiveness is concerned, there could be trouble in paradise. In the last few years, the cost of labour has been on the rise, while the value added for each paid hour has been weakening. Moreover, imports have been increasing at a higher pace than exports in the last two years.

The Survey of Household Spending (SHS), which replaced the periodic Family Expenditure Survey (FAMEX) in 1997, is an annual survey that collects detailed expenditure information from households for a given calendar year. Due to the heavy response burden placed on respondents of this survey, it was decided for the 1997 survey to perform a test of incentive effect on response rates. Two incentives were used: a one-year subscription to the Statistics Canada publication Canadian Social Trends and a telephone calling card. The response rate data was analysed using Fisher's exact test and some non-parametric methods. After controlling for a discovered interviewer assignment effect, it was found that there was some evidence of a telephone card effect in the western and eastern most regions of Canada, while there was no evidence of any effect for the magazine. These findings were somewhat corroborated by a separate study testing effects of incentives on respondent relations. All these results will be discussed in this paper.

Much work on probabilistic methods of linkage can be found in the statistical literature. However, although many groups undoubtedly still use deterministic procedures, not much literature is available on these strategies. Furthermore there appears to exist no documentation on the comparison of results for the two strategies. Such a comparison is pertinent in the situation where we have only non-unique identifiers like names, sex, race etc. as common identifiers on which the databases are to be linked. In this work we compare a stepwise deterministic linkage strategy with the probabilistic strategy, as implemented in AUTOMATCH, for such a situation. The comparison was carried out on a linkage between medical records from the Regional Perinatal Intensive Care Centers database and education records from the Florida Department of Education. Social security numbers, available in both databases, were used to decide the true status of the record pair after matching. Match rates and error rates for the two strategies are compared and a discussion of their similarities and differences, strengths and weaknesses is presented.

The fusion sample obtained by a statistical matching process can be considered a sample out of an artificial population. The distribution of this artificial population is derived. If the correlation between specific variables is the only focus the strong demand for conditional independence can be weakened. In a simulation study the effects of violations of some assumptions leading to the distribution of the artificial population are examined. Finally some ideas concerning the establishing of the claimed conditional independence by latent class analysis are presented.

Following the problems with estimating underenumeration in the 1991 Census of England and Wales the aim for the 2001 Census is to create a database that is fully adjusted to net underenumeration. To achieve this, the paper investigates weighted donor imputation methodology that utilises information from both the census and census coverage survey (CCS). The US Census Bureau has considered a similar approach for their 2000 Census (see Isaki et al 1998). The proposed procedure distinguishes between individuals who are not counted by the census because their household is missed and those who are missed in counted households. Census data is linked to data from the CCS. Multinomial logistic regression is used to estimate the probabilities that households are missed by the census and the probabilities that individuals are missed in counted households. Household and individual coverage weights are constructed from the estimated probabilities and these feed into the donor imputation procedure.

To reach their target audience efficiently, advertisers and media planners need information on which media their customers use. For instance, they may need to know what percentage of Diet Coke drinkers watch Baywatch, or how many AT&T customers have seen an advertisement for Sprint during the last week. All the relevant data could theoretically be collected from each respondent. However, obtaining full detailed and accurate information would be very expensive. It would also impose a heavy respondent burden under current data collection technology. This information is currently collected through separate surveys in New Zealand and in many other countries. Exposure to the major media is measured continuously, and product usage studies are common. Statistical matching techniques provide a way of combining these separate information sources. The New Zealand television ratings database was combined with a syndicated survey of print readership and product usage, using statistical matching. The resulting Panorama service meets the targeting information needs of advertisers and media planners. It has since been duplicated in Australia. This paper discusses the development of the statistical matching framework for combining these databases, and the heuristics and techniques used. These included an experiment conducted using a screening design to identify important matching variables. Studies evaluating and validating the combined results are also summarized. The following three major evaluation criteria were used; accuracy of combined results, statibility of combined results and the preservation of currency results from the component databases. The paper then discusses how the prerequisites for combining the databases were met. The biggest hurdle at this stage was the differences between the analysis techniques used on the two component databases. Finally, suggestions for developing similar statistical matching systems elsewhere will be given.

Data fusion as discussed here means to create a set of data on not jointly observed variables from two different sources. Suppose for instance that observations are available for (X,Z) on a set of individuals and for (Y,Z) on a different set of individuals. Each of X, Y and Z may be a vector variable. The main purpose is to gain insight into the joint distribution of (X,Y) using Z as a so-called matching variable. At first however, it is attempted to recover as much information as possible on the joint distribution of (X,Y,Z) from the distinct sets of data. Such fusions can only be done at the cost of implementing some distributional properties for the fused data. These are conditional independencies given the matching variables. Fused data are typically discussed from the point of view of how appropriate this underlying assumption is. Here we give a different perspective. We formulate the problem as follows: how can distributions be estimated in situations when only observations from certain marginal distributions are available. It can be solved by applying the maximum entropy criterium. We show in particular that data created by fusing different sources can be interpreted as a special case of this situation. Thus, we derive the needed assumption of conditional independence as a consequence of the type of data available.

The effect of the environment on health is of increasing concern, in particular the effects of the release of industrial pollutants into the air, the ground and into water. An assessment of the risks to public health of any particular pollution source is often made using the routine health, demographic and environmental data collected by government agencies. These datasets have important differences in sampling geography and in sampling epochs which affect the epidemiological analyses which draw them together. In the UK, health events are recorded for individuals, giving cause codes, a data of diagnosis or death, and using the unit postcode as a geographical reference. In contrast, small area demographic data are recorded only at the decennial census, and released as area level data in areas distinct from postcode geography. Environmental exposure data may be available at yet another resolution, depending on the type of exposure and the source of the measurements.

As the population ages, a greater demand for long-term care services and, in particular, nursing homes is expected. Policy analysts continue to search for alternative, less costly forms of care for the elderly and have attempted to develop programs to delay or prevent nursing-home entry. Health care administrators required information for planning the future demand for nursing-home services. This study assesses the relative importance of predisposing, enabling, and need characteristics in predicting and understanding nursing-home entry.

A population needs-based health care resource allocation model was developed and applied using age, sex and health status of populations to measure population need for health care in Ontario. To develop the model, provincial data on self-assessed health and health service utilization by age and sex from 62,413 respondents to the 1990 Ontario Health Survey (OHS) were used in combination with provincial health care expenditure data for the fiscal year 1995/96 by age and sex. The model was limited to the services that were covered in the OHS (general practitioner, specialist physician, optometry, physiotherapy, chiropractic and acute hospital). The distribution of utilization and expenditures between age-sex-health status categories was used to establish appropriate health care resource shares for each age-sex-health status combination. These resource shares were then applied to geographic populations using age, sex and health status data from the OHS together with more recent population estimates to determine the needs-based health care resource allocation for each area. Total dollar allocations were restricted to sum to the 1995/96 provincial budget and were compared with 1995/96 allocations to determine the extent to which Ontario allocations are consistent with the relative needs of the area populations.

To augment the amount of available information, data from different sources are increasingly being combined. These databases are often combined using record linkage methods. When there is no unique identifier, a probabilistic linkage is used. In that case, a record on a first file is associated with a probability that is linked to a record on a second file, and then a decision is taken on whether a possible link is a true link or not. This usually requires a non-negligible amount of manual resolution. It might then be legitimate to evaluate if manual resolution can be reduced or even eliminated. This issue is addressed in this paper where one tries to produce an estimate of a total (or a mean) of one population, when using a sample selected from another population linked somehow to the first population. In other words, having two populations linked through probabilistic record linkage, we try to avoid any decision concerning the validity of links and still be able to produce an unbiased estimate for a total of the one of two populations. To achieve this goal, we suggest the use of the Generalised Weight Share Method (GWSM) described by Lavallée (1995).

The application of dual system estimation (DSE) to matched Census / Post Enumeration Survey (PES) data in order to measure net undercount is well understood (Hogan, 1993). However, this approach has so far not been used to measure net undercount in the UK. The 2001 PES in the UK will use this methodology. This paper presents the general approach to design and estimation for this PES (the 2001 Census Coverage Survey). The estimation combines DSE with standard ratio and regression estimation. A simulation study using census data from the 1991 Census of England and Wales demonstrates that the ratio model is in general more robust than the regression model.